Tech
Accounting for uncertainty to help engineers design complex systems
Designing a complex electronic device like a delivery drone involves juggling many choices, such as selecting motors and batteries that minimize cost while maximizing the payload the drone can carry or the distance it can travel.
Unraveling that conundrum is no easy task, but what happens if the designers don’t know the exact specifications of each battery and motor? On top of that, the real-world performance of these components will likely be affected by unpredictable factors, like changing weather along the drone’s route.
MIT researchers developed a new framework that helps engineers design complex systems in a way that explicitly accounts for such uncertainty. The framework allows them to model the performance tradeoffs of a device with many interconnected parts, each of which could behave in unpredictable ways.
Their technique captures the likelihood of many outcomes and tradeoffs, giving designers more information than many existing approaches which, at most, can usually only model best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Ultimately, this framework could help engineers develop complex systems like autonomous vehicles, commercial aircraft, or even regional transportation networks that are more robust and reliable in the face of real-world unpredictability.
“In practice, the components in a device never behave exactly like you think they will. If someone has a sensor whose performance is uncertain, and an algorithm that is uncertain, and the design of a robot that is also uncertain, now they have a way to mix all these uncertainties together so they can come up with a better design,” says Gioele Zardini, the Rudge and Nancy Allen Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at MIT, a principal investigator in the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS), an affiliate faculty with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS), and senior author of a paper on this framework.
Zardini is joined on the paper by lead author Yujun Huang, an MIT graduate student; and Marius Furter, a graduate student at the University of Zurich. The research will be presented at the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.
Considering uncertainty
The Zardini Group studies co-design, a method for designing systems made of many interconnected components, from robots to regional transportation networks.
The co-design language breaks a complex problem into a series of boxes, each representing one component, that can be combined in different ways to maximize outcomes or minimize costs. This allows engineers to solve complex problems in a feasible amount of time.
In prior work, the researchers modeled each co-design component without considering uncertainty. For instance, the performance of each sensor the designers could choose for a drone was fixed.
But engineers often don’t know the exact performance specifications of each sensor, and even if they do, it is unlikely the senor will perfectly follow its spec sheet. At the same time, they don’t know how each sensor will behave once integrated into a complex device, or how performance will be affected by unpredictable factors like weather.
“With our method, even if you are unsure what the specifications of your sensor will be, you can still design the robot to maximize the outcome you care about,” says Furter.
To accomplish this, the researchers incorporated this notion of uncertainty into an existing framework based on category theory.
Using some mathematical tricks, they simplified the problem into a more general structure. This allows them to use the tools of category theory to solve co-design problems in a way that considers a range of uncertain outcomes.
By reformulating the problem, the researchers can capture how multiple design choices affect one another even when their individual performance is uncertain.
This approach is also simpler than many existing tools that typically require extensive domain expertise. With their plug-and-play system, one can rearrange the components in the system without violating any mathematical constraints.
And because no specific domain expertise is required, the framework could be used by a multidisciplinary team where each member designs one component of a larger system.
“Designing an entire UAV isn’t feasible for just one person, but designing a component of a UAV is. By providing the framework for how these components work together in a way that considers uncertainty, we’ve made it easier for people to evaluate the performance of the entire UAV system,” Huang says.
More detailed information
The researchers used this new approach to choose perception systems and batteries for a drone that would maximize its payload while minimizing its lifetime cost and weight.
While each perception system may offer a different detection accuracy under varying weather conditions, the designer doesn’t know exactly how its performance will fluctuate. This new system allows the designer to take these uncertainties into consideration when thinking about the drone’s overall performance.
And unlike other approaches, their framework reveals distinct advantages of each battery technology.
For instance, their results show that at lower payloads, nickel-metal hydride batteries provide the lowest expected lifetime cost. This insight would be impossible to fully capture without accounting for uncertainty, Zardini says.
While another method might only be able to show the best-case and worst-case performance scenarios of lithium polymer batteries, their framework gives the user more detailed information.
For example, it shows that if the drone’s payload is 1,750 grams, there is a 12.8 percent chance the battery design would be infeasible.
“Our system provides the tradeoffs, and then the user can reason about the design,” he adds.
In the future, the researchers want to improve the computational efficiency of their problem-solving algorithms. They also want to extend this approach to situations where a system is designed by multiple parties that are collaborative and competitive, like a transportation network in which rail companies operate using the same infrastructure.
“As the complexity of systems grow, and involves more disparate components, we need a formal framework in which to design these systems. This paper presents a way to compose large systems from modular components, understand design trade-offs, and importantly do so with a notion of uncertainty. This creates an opportunity to formalize the design of large-scale systems with learning-enabled components,” says Aaron Ames, the Bren Professor of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Control and Dynamical Systems, and Aerospace at Caltech, who was not involved with this research.
Shopping for a Dyson vacuum is an experience. There are many models to navigate and serious price tags on most of them. As someone who tests vacuums for a living, I have to admit that a Dyson blows most other vacuums away. There are a few cheaper models I’ll still grab (check out my full guide to cordless and robot vacuums for more recommendations), but if you’re dreaming of a Dyson, this weekend is a great time to buy.
Several Dyson models I love are on sale for the long weekend. This weekend’s sale includes Dyson’s newest robot vacuum and the PencilVac that I can’t stop using, and my overall favorites like the V15 Detect and Gen5Detect, and more models our team has loved using. Read on to find out every on-sale Dyson I’d buy this weekend.
Best Dyson Vacuums on Sale for Memorial Day
The Best Dyson for the Price
If you’re looking for the best features for the best price, I already recommend the Dyson V15 Detect when it’s not on sale, making this an even better time to buy. You’ll get both a Fluffy Optic cleaner head and a Digital Motorbar cleaner head to use for hard floors, carpet, or rugs, trigger control, and details about the particles you suck up while you vacuum. It’s lightweight and easy to use anywhere in the house, and the hour-long battery life should be plenty for a whole-home clean.
A More Powerful Dyson
Dyson’s more powerful stick vacuum is the Gen5Detect, which is a great option if you have pets since it has a faster motor with more suction power than the V15 Detect to suck up more pet hair (it’s our top vacuum for pet hair for a reason) and has a HEPA filter to keep allergens contained inside of the vacuum instead of being released back into the air. It also comes with a true power button, so you don’t have to hold onto the trigger button the entire time to use it. Similar to the V15 Detect, it comes with both a Digital Motorbar cleaner head and a Fluffy Optic cleaner head to use on carpet and hard floors, respectively. You’ll also get two more attachments, plus a built-in dusting and crevice tool (it’s nice not to have to wonder where this attachment is!) It’s an expensive vacuum, but well worth the investment when it’s on sale.
If You Only Have Hard Floors
I shouldn’t like the PencilVac so much, but I find myself reaching for it often, and I think it’s plenty worth its abilities when it’s on sale. Part of what makes it so easy to grab compared to my other stick vacuums is how easy it is to store and keep charged with the freestanding charging base, letting it stand wherever I like in my home as long as there’s an outlet nearby. The PencilVac has two versions, the Fluffy and Fluffycones, with the latter having a design that has fluffy cone-shaped rollers to best collect debris. It is limited to only hard floors and has a short battery life, but I love how maneuverable and lightweight this vacuum is. It’s usually a high price tag for its abilities, and even on sale, it’s not what I would call cheap, but it’s a great, quick daily vacuum.
Dyson’s Latest Robot Vac
Dyson’s newest robot vacuum, the Spot+Scrub Ai, is its first that doubles as both a vacuum and a mop. It has a large base station that reminds me of Dyson’s vacuums, since the dry debris canister is clear and rounded like the ones you’d see attached to a Dyson stick vacuum or one of its upright models. It does a good job mopping and vacuuming, and can learn multiple floors, and the navigation has improved since the older Dyson 306 Vis Nav. Still, it’s not perfect navigation, since the camera sits below the top of the vacuum and doesn’t always see low-profile furniture that it’ll bump into. If you don’t have a ton of low furniture (or tons of IKEA pieces, as I do), this vacuum could be just perfect for you.
A Stick Vac and Mop
Dyson
V15s Detect Submarine
If you want a vacuum that doubles as a mop, look no further than this variation of the V15 Detect that’s also on sale for the holiday weekend. The V15s Detect Submarine comes with the Submarine wet roller head that transforms it from a regular Dyson vacuum (that still comes with both the Fluffy optic cleaner head and Digital motorbar cleaner head for you to use on hard floors and carpet) into a wet roller mop. You can’t buy a regular V15 Detect and add this attachment on; this V15s is made to work with this Submarine head. You’ll fill the small reservoir on the roller head with water and can start mopping away, but you will have to rinse the mop head afterwards by hand, which is a little gross.
A Handheld-Only Dyson
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Photograph: Brenda Stolyar
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If you’re not looking to spend a ton but want a Dyson that’s super portable and great for stairs, cars, and even boats, the Dyson Car+Boat is made for that. It’s in the name, after all. This handheld-only vacuum packs solid power and has a great battery life for a handheld vacuum. It uses a trigger-style control like the V15 Detect, which I actually find ideal for cleaning compact spaces like stairs and cars so that you’re not fumbling to switch it off as you move around the car or to the next set of stairs. It’s an affordable way to get into the Dyson ecosystem, especially since it’s on sale.
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Photograph: Michael Calore
The walls of the bag are tough enough, made from 1,200-denier polyester, which is heavy-duty and water-resistant, not to mention so rugged that it’s nearly indestructible. I’ve checked it as luggage on a dozen or so flights, and it doesn’t show any scuffs or tears. The zipper at the top isn’t sealed, but it’s heavier than it needs to be and works just fine in the rain. What truly sets the bag apart, though, is its lining. The whole interior of the tote is coated with a thin layer of thermoplastic, further increasing its imperviousness to moisture.
Photograph: Michael Calore
Photograph: Michael Calore
Now, of course, the purpose of this kind of lining is to keep the contents dry when you use the bag in a wet environment, like on a canoe trip, on a rainy bike ride, or on a duck hunt in the Maine wilderness. And surely, I have used the bag in a canoe and on many a rainy bike ride (I’ve never been on a duck hunt), and the goods inside have indeed always remained intact. I even trust the bag enough to carry electronics and musical equipment to the office or studio on drizzly mornings. But for me, the utility the bag provides is more so the opposite: it’s an excellent place to cleanly transport items that are, themselves, muddy, wet, or slimy.
For example, I’ve taken the bag car camping several times. Once, I used it to pack my tent, ground cloth, boots, and rain shell. On the last day of the trip, it poured outside, and upon it being time to head home, my rain jacket and tent were soaked, the ground cloth was dotted with wet pine needles and flecks of bark, and my boots had a thick layer of Mendocino, California, muck in the tread. I crammed all of those items in the Hunter’s Tote, zipped it up, and tossed it into the back seat of my rental car. The interior lining kept the mess inside, saving the rental car’s tuck-and-roll upholstery. Back home, I emptied the tote, flipped it inside out, and blasted out all the forest flooring with a hose.
There are two heavy plastic tabs on the edges of the tote, one at each end of the zipper. This is where the shoulder strap clips in. I’ve never really used the strap (honestly, it just gets in the way), but those tabs are great for hanging the tote to dry after rinsing it out.
The Hunter’s Tote comes in three sizes. I have the largest, the XL, which has a capacity of 53 liters. (That’s huge for a tote bag.) I prefer the larger size because when you set the reinforced bottom on a flat surface and prop the mouth of the bag open, you have a generous flat bottom inside of 10 by 19 inches. All that room really makes the bag more versatile, so my recommendation is to go large.
Also, just know there are no frills here: no exterior pockets, no padding, no laptop sleeve. Just a rugged carrier that’s ready for your dirtiest work. Whether you’re carrying twelvers of La Croix or bagging Buffleheads, it’s indispensable.
Power up with unlimited access to WIRED. Get best-in-class reporting and exclusive subscriber content that’s too important to ignore. Subscribe Today.
As of July 1, all vehicles sold within the European Union must include a standard, preinstalled interface that allows a breathalyzer lock to be added to the ignition system. This measure is part of a larger strategy promoted by the EU to reduce drunk-driving-related deaths and injuries by at least 50 percent by 2030.
The requirement falls under the Vision Zero program, launched by European authorities more than five years ago, which aims to eliminate alcohol-related traffic fatalities entirely—or get as close to zero as possible—by 2050. The measure also aligns with the timetable established in the EU’s General Safety Regulation, which sets specific deadlines for manufacturers to incorporate various safety features into vehicle designs, starting at the factory.
The regulation that will become mandatory in July obliges automakers to provide an electrical connection and reserve a space inside the vehicle to allow the installation of an “alcolock” device. This device must comply with European standard EN 50436 for Alcohol Ignition Interlocks and have a certificate issued by an authorized accrediting entity.
The operation of an alcolock is simple. Before starting the vehicle, the driver must blow into the device, which measures the level of alcohol present in the breath. If the result exceeds the legal limit, the system, which connected to the vehicle’s ignition or starting mechanism, automatically blocks the ignition cycle and prevents the car from starting.
This type of technology already operates in several European countries, mainly as part of programs aimed at repeat offenders of alcohol-related offenses or in certain sectors of professional transport. Official figures estimate that its implementation can reduce fatal accidents associated with alcohol consumption by up to 65 percent.
Since 2018, the European Union’s road safety program has incorporated different technologies to reinforce safe driving. As of 2024, new vehicles integrate an intelligent speed assistant, a system that detects the permitted speed limit using cameras or GPS and alerts the driver when they are exceeded the limit.
In addition, there is the emergency lane keeping assistant, capable of correcting the trajectory when the vehicle deviates without prior signaling. Also noteworthy is the event data recorder, popularly known as the “black box,” which stores key information during the seconds prior to an accident to facilitate law enforcement and traffic safety agency investigations.
Recently, a requirement was added to incorporate the adaptive brake light, a mechanism that, in the event of sudden braking, automatically and intensely activates the rear lights to warn other drivers of the need to slow down and avoid a collision.
The obligation to install an interface for an on-board breathalyzer is the final step in this set of safety measures. As of the first day of July, no car will be allowed to leave a dealership within the EU without full compliance with all these requirements.
This story was originally published by WIRED en Español and has been translated from Spanish.
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