Business
Ask Dhirendra: ‘If I know markets go up in the long run, why do short-term losses bother me so much?’ – The Times of India
“‘If I know markets go up in the long run, why do short-term losses bother me so much?’This is one of the most honest questions an investor can ask.On paper, you know the logic. You’ve seen all the charts: “Sensex 100 to 70,000”, “Nifty over 20–25 years”, “equity beats inflation in the long run”. You nod wisely when someone says, “Equity is for the long term.”And then one fine day, you open your app, see your portfolio down 8–10 per cent, and your stomach drops.The mind says, “Long term”.The heart says, “Bas, ab yeh band karo.”Let’s start with some sympathy: there is nothing wrong with you. Your brain is not designed for SIPs; it is designed for survival.When our ancestors saw red (blood, fire, and danger) the correct response was to panic and run. Today, your app shows red numbers, and your brain uses the same wiring: “Danger, danger, get out.” The problem is that the stock market is the only place where running at the wrong time converts a temporary fall into a permanent loss.It helps to see what “short term” and “long term” actually look like in numbers.
The market tests patience before it rewards it
When we look at this kind of data at Value Research, the pattern is always similar. Over the course of a year, losses are frequent. Over ten-year periods, they shrink dramatically. So the market is not misbehaving when it falls in a single year. It’s behaving exactly like a market. It is unrealistic to expect a smooth, linear upward graph.There’s another uncomfortable truth. You don’t look at your portfolio like a long-term investor; you look at it like a daily scorecard. Every time you open the app, the number on top becomes a verdict on your intelligence. Up means “I am smart”; down means “I am stupid.” Of course, you don’t want to feel stupid for three months in a row.Now we put some more structure on this feeling.Imagine you start a ₹10,000 monthly SIP in a good, diversified equity fund for 15–20 years. Somewhere along the way, there is a year when the market is down 20 per cent.There are only three things that can happen in that year:
- You panic and stop your SIP or redeem.
- You grit your teeth and do nothing.
- You not only continue but increase your investments.
The cost of doing the wrong thing at the wrong time
When we run such scenarios at Value Research, the surprising part is this: the investor who simply does nothing in bad years often beats the one who keeps jumping around trying to avoid pain.So why can’t we “do nothing” easily?Partly because we confuse volatility with failure, a minus 10 per cent year feels like a verdict on our choice rather than a normal part of the journey. And partly because we mix up time horizons. We say, “This is for my retirement in 2045,” and then behave as if the performance over the last 45 days is all that matters.One practical way to calm yourself is to separate money by purpose. If you put all your money into the market and then need some of it next year, of course, every fall will feel catastrophic. But if you’ve done the boring work—kept an emergency fund, kept short-term money in safer avenues—then the equity money is truly long-term. You’re not going to need it next Diwali, so you don’t have to judge it every Diwali.Another trick is to change what you watch.Instead of staring at the absolute value, look at two different things:
- How much time do you have left before you actually need this money?
- How much of your target have you already accumulated?
At Value Research, our planning tools and advice try to shift people from “portfolio value today” to “probability of meeting your goal over time”. It’s much easier to tolerate a bad year in the market if you see that you’re still broadly on track for your long-term destination.And finally, accept this: you don’t have to enjoy seeing losses. You just have to not overreact to them. The test of a good investment is not whether it goes up every quarter; it’s whether it helps you reach your goals over ten or twenty years, without making you do something foolish in between.So if you know markets go up in the long run but short-term losses still bother you, that just means you’re human. Good. Stay human. Just put a system around your humanity:
- Keep your emergency and near-term money out of harm’s way.
- Use equity only for genuinely long-term goals.
- Decide your SIPs when you are calm, and refuse to renegotiate them with your panicked future self.
Red numbers on a screen are not a verdict on your intelligence. Most of the time, they’re just the market’s way of asking, “Did you really mean it when you said long term?”If the answer is yes, close the app and let time do the arguing for you.If you have any queries for Dhirendra Kumar you can drop us an email at: toi.business@timesinternet.in(Dhirendra Kumar is Founder and CEO of Value Research)
Business
India’s fuel demand growth may slow sharply in H2 2026 amid price hikes, austerity push: Report
India’s transportation fuel demand growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of 2026 as higher fuel prices, government-led conservation measures and a weakening rupee weigh on mobility and consumption trends, according to a report.The report by Kpler’s lead analyst (modelling), Elif Binici, revised down India’s 2026 refined products demand growth forecast by around 77,000 barrels per day (kbd), or 39 per cent, to nearly 78 kbd from an earlier estimate of 128 kbd.As per news agency PTI, the downgrade reflects weaker expected growth in petrol and diesel demand due to elevated fuel costs, softer mobility trends and official efforts to conserve fuel amid the ongoing West Asia crisis.Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by around Rs 5 per litre in three instalments since May 15, after oil marketing companies passed on part of the burden of soaring global crude oil prices to consumers.
Petrol demand faces steepest downside risk
The report said petrol demand is likely to see the sharpest slowdown, with projected growth revised down by 25 kbd, from 63 kbd to 38 kbd.Petrol consumption is now estimated at 1,010 kbd, compared to the earlier estimate of 1,035 kbd.According to the report, weaker commuting activity, slower discretionary travel and government fuel-saving campaigns are expected to curb fuel consumption.Annual diesel demand growth was also cut by around 20 kbd, while jet fuel demand growth was nearly halved to about 6 kbd from 11 kbd earlier due to expectations of reduced air travel and tighter spending patterns.“The revisions primarily reflect weaker expected growth in gasoline and diesel demand as higher costs, weaker mobility trends, and recent government-led fuel conservation efforts increasingly feed into domestic transportation activity,” the report said, as quoted by PTI.
Rupee weakness, crude surge add pressure
The report noted that India’s macroeconomic environment has deteriorated since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with rising crude import costs, refinery expenses and rupee depreciation increasing inflationary pressure.The rupee has weakened by around 6 per cent since the conflict began and nearly 10 per cent over the past year. Foreign exchange reserves have also reportedly declined by about 4.3 per cent since late February as authorities attempted to stabilise the currency and contain imported inflation.The report said the current average petrol price of around Rs 103 per litre remains well below the estimated breakeven level of nearly Rs 125 per litre.Diesel prices near Rs 94 per litre are also below the estimated breakeven range of Rs 115-120 per litre.Before the recent price revisions, state-run fuel retailers were reportedly losing nearly Rs 1,000 crore daily because rising crude procurement costs and currency weakness outpaced retail fuel prices.“The key issue is the inability of state-run retailers to pass through rising import costs quickly enough to restore profitability,” the report said.
Russian crude continues to support supply security
The report added that India’s dependence on discounted Russian crude imports, estimated at around 1.9-2 million barrels per day, continues to provide stability to the domestic fuel market amid geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia.Policymakers now appear to be prioritising macroeconomic stability, inflation management, foreign exchange preservation and fuel supply security over near-term fuel demand growth.The report warned that unless crude prices ease significantly, the rupee stabilises or additional fiscal support measures are introduced, further fuel price hikes and stricter fuel-conservation measures may become difficult to avoid.
The combined market valuation of six of India’s top-10 most valued companies rose by Rs 74,111.57 crore last week, with Reliance Industries emerging as the biggest gainer. The rally came during a volatile trading week in which the BSE Sensex advanced 177.36 points, or 0.23%.According to news agency ANI, Reliance Industries added Rs 24,696.89 crore to its valuation, taking its total market capitalisation to Rs 18,33,117.70 crore.Tata Consultancy Services saw its valuation jump by Rs 19,338.68 crore to Rs 8,38,401.33 crore, while ICICI Bank added Rs 14,515.93 crore to reach a market capitalisation of Rs 9,06,901.32 crore.The valuation of Life Insurance Corporation of India climbed Rs 9,076.37 crore to Rs 5,14,443.69 crore.Meanwhile, Bajaj Finance gained Rs 3,797.83 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 5,70,515.57 crore, while Larsen & Toubro added Rs 2,685.87 crore to Rs 5,40,228.21 crore.
Airtel, HUL among laggards
On the losing side, Bharti Airtel witnessed the sharpest erosion in market value, losing Rs 20,229.67 crore to settle at Rs 11,40,295.49 crore.The market valuation of Hindustan Unilever declined by Rs 16,212.18 crore to Rs 5,17,380 crore, while State Bank of India lost Rs 12,784.4 crore in valuation to Rs 8,76,077.92 crore.HDFC Bank also saw its market capitalisation dip by Rs 2,094.35 crore to Rs 11,79,974.90 crore.Reliance Industries retained its position as India’s most valued company, followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and LIC.
Markets end volatile week with modest gains
Ajit Mishra, SVP, research at Religare Broking Ltd, said markets ended the week with marginal gains amid a “highly volatile and range-bound trading environment”.“Benchmark indices witnessed sharp intraday swings throughout the week, driven by persistent rupee weakness, mixed global cues, sectoral rotation, and continued uncertainty around inflation and interest rates,” he said, as quoted by ANI.Benchmark indices recovered on Friday, with the Sensex closing 231.99 points higher at 75,415.35 and the NSE Nifty rising 64.60 points to settle at 23,719.30.Analysts cited optimism surrounding possible progress in US-Iran peace negotiations and easing Middle East tensions as factors supporting market sentiment.Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, was quoted by news agency PTI as saying that domestic markets traded with a “mild positive bias” due to buying at lower levels and constructive global cues.“Globally, the AI investment theme remained the primary driver, while domestically, financial stocks led the gains,” he said.Brent crude prices climbed 2.3% to $104.7 per barrel, while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,891.21 crore in the previous session.
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