Fashion
China’s personal luxury market down 3–5% in 2025: Bain
The report finds that 2025 marked a year of recalibration for China’s luxury market, as consumers became more selective and prioritised value driven luxury items that balance quality, exclusivity and practicality. Experience-based consumption, including travel and wellness, continued to be favoured, reflecting an ongoing preference for emotional and sensory experiences over material goods.
“After the turbulence of 2024, the market in 2025 began to stabilize, although consumer confidence remained fragile,” said Bruno Lannes, senior partner at Bain & Company. “What we are seeing is not a broad-based rebound, but the start of a recalibration phase, with early signs of recovery emerging in the second half of the year. This recalibration is also segment specific, with the Very Important Clients continuing to represent a large share of the market, while younger aspiring consumers have delayed entry into the luxury category.”
Luxury market performance varied significantly by category. Beauty emerged as the strongest performer, rebounding to 4–7 per cent growth, driven by steady demand for ultra-premium skincare and fragrances as consumers continued to seek emotional and sensory experiences even amid economic uncertainty. Other categories remained under pressure.
Fashion declined by 5–8 per cent, outperforming leather goods which declined 8–11 per cent – reflecting past and ongoing price increases and limited innovation, which made it difficult for consumers to justify purchases.
“In a more selective market, category dynamics and brand fundamentals are becoming increasingly decisive,” said Priscilla Dell’Orto, partner at Bain & Company. “Brands that maintain strong desirability and deliver clear value through innovation and targeted pricing strategies are proving more resilient.”
In contrast to 2023 and 2024, the share of overseas luxury spending declined sharply in 2025. Bain estimates that 65 per cent of Chinese luxury consumption occurred within mainland China, while 35 per cent took place outside, reflecting a renewed degree of consumption repatriation.
This shift was driven in part by low currency and narrowed price gaps between mainland China and key luxury markets, largely resulting from exchange-rate movements, which reduced the incentive for overseas shopping. Domestic tourism growth and ongoing shopping mall promotions further supported mainland consumption, despite the continued recovery of outbound travel.
Daigou activity stayed high in 2025 but showed signs of structural slowdown as brands stepped up efforts to curb gray-market sales and protect pricing in China. Sales among the top 45 brands tracked by Re-Hub grew 3 per cent in 2025, down from 5 per cent in 2024, reflecting tighter control over overseas supply chains and unofficial channels.
At the same time, China’s second-hand luxury market continued to expand, growing by 15–20 per cent in 2025, while remaining underpenetrated at less than 10 per cent of the primary luxury market. Growth was supported by an increased supply of pre-owned goods, rising consumer acceptance – particularly among younger and more price-sensitive buyers – and the widespread adoption of live-streaming as a trusted channel for product verification and engagement.
“The second-hand market is becoming a more established and complementary pillar of China’s luxury ecosystem,” said Elle Yang, partner at Bain & Company. “Its continued growth reflects changing consumer mindsets as well as the increasing maturity of the overall market.”
The report also points to the continued growth of local Chinese luxury brands, especially in beauty and select personal luxury segments. These players are gaining market share through culturally resonant designs, digital-first and engagement-driven consumer strategies, and competitive pricing supported by strong local supply chains.
As competition intensifies in a low-growth environment, the gap between winners and laggards is widening, with consumers consolidating their spending toward a smaller number of preferred brands that deliver perceived ‘true value’.
Looking ahead, Bain expects China’s personal luxury goods market to see modest growth in 2026, albeit with continued volatility and uncertainty. A growing middle class, improving consumer confidence and favourable policies are expected to help direct more luxury consumption back to the mainland, while growth will remain highly category- and brand-dependent.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)
In 2025, retail net revenue increased by 9.2 per cent year-over-year with SSS growth of 8.1 per cent and a gross margin of 56.1 per cent (+0.7 p.p.). Apparel net revenue increased by 10.2 per cent year-over-year, with SSS growth of 8.9 per cent, and gross margin of 57.4 per cent (+0.7 p.p.). Digital GMV increased by 12.3 per cent, reaching a penetration of 15.5 per cent.
Lojas Renner reported strong FY25 results.
In Q4, apparel net revenue rose 5.1 per cent with 4.0 per cent same-store sales (SSS) growth and a 57.9 per cent gross margin.
For 2025, retail net revenue grew 9.2 per cent and apparel revenue 10.2 per cent, while digital GMV increased 12.3 per cent.
The company opened 34 stores and plans 50–60 new stores in 2026.
“Throughout 2025, we made steady progress in capturing the potential of our business model. We demonstrated our ability to deliver improvements across all key metrics to which we have committed for the 2026–2030 cycle. Retail net revenue grew in line with the annual guidance that will take effect from 2026. At the same time, we expanded gross margin, diluted expenses, increased ROIC, and delivered robust cash generation,” said Fabio Faccio, CEO of Lojas Renner.
“Retail net revenue advanced 9.2 per cent, reflecting meaningful market share gains and further strengthening our leadership in the Brazilian apparel retail sector. This performance is the result of a disciplined growth strategy focused on expansion into new cities, increased digital penetration, and continued productivity gains, mainly from trend capture initiatives and effective inventory allocation. Sales per square metre, approximately 45 per cent above direct competitors, continued to improve, demonstrating the efficiency of our omni-channel model. These achievements position us to meet our annual Retail net revenue growth target of 9 per cent to 13 per cent for the 2026–2030 period,” explained Faccio.
“During the year, we opened 34 new stores, including 23 in the fourth quarter, expanding our physical presence in underpenetrated markets and scaling proven, higher-return formats under the Renner brand. These initiatives increased engagement and contributed to the growth of our active customer base and NPS. For 2026, we plan to open 50 to 60 stores: 22 to 30 under the Renner brand, 23 to 25 Youcom stores, and approximately 5 Camicado stores,” Faccio added.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)
The Hormuz disruption has triggered the sharpest textile supply shock since COVID-19.
Ship transits collapsed 97 per cent, Brent crude rose 26 per cent, and polyester feedstocks jumped 25–40 per cent, pushing global textile production costs up 10–15 per cent.
With polyester accounting for ~59 per cent of global fibre output, energy volatility is rapidly transmitting into apparel costs.
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Prices for the nearby May contract on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) traded within a narrow band of 64–66 cents per pound during the period. Meanwhile, the December ICE futures contract followed a gradual upward trend since early February, rising from below 68 cents per pound to above 70 cents recently.
Global cotton benchmarks remained mostly steady over the past month, with slight gains in key indices, according to Cotton Incorporated.
ICE May futures traded between 64–66 cents per pound, while the Cotlook A Index rose to 75 cents.
Higher global production forecasts and fluctuations in Chinese import demand continue to shape the outlook for cotton prices.
The global benchmark Cotlook A Index also edged higher from 73 to 75 cents per pound. In China, the China Cotton Index 3128B increased from 104 to 109 cents per pound, equivalent to a rise from 16,000 to 16,600 RMB per tonne.
In contrast, cotton prices in India slipped slightly from 76 to 74 cents per pound over the past month, while prices in Pakistan remained broadly stable near 68 cents per pound.
On the supply side, the latest outlook from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the forecast for global cotton production in the 2025-26 season by 1.1 million bales to 121 million bales, while world mill consumption was reduced marginally by 140,000 bales to 118.6 million bales. The revisions lifted projected global ending stocks by 1.3 million bales to 76.4 million as per Cotton Incorporated’s Monthly Economic Letter – Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook – March 2026.
The largest upward revisions to production were recorded in Brazil and China, while smaller adjustments were made for Argentina. Global cotton trade forecasts were also increased by 200,000 bales to 43.9 million bales.
Market analysts noted that shifts in Chinese import demand remain a major driver of global cotton price movements. Large swings in imports by China have historically influenced exportable supply and global prices, with past surges pushing ICE futures above 90 cents per pound.
Although China’s domestic production has improved significantly over the past decade, supported by higher yields and expanded cultivation, its import requirements are still expected to influence the market. The USDA’s preliminary forecast projects Chinese cotton imports at about 7 million bales in the 2026–27 season.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)
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