Business
Fuel costs and fiscal realities: Pakistan’s tightrope walk | The Express Tribune
Pakistan faces rising fuel costs due to imports; govt balances price hikes with targeted subsidies and relief measures
KARACHI:
Fuel price increases in Pakistan almost always trigger a strong public reaction. That response is understandable, given the direct impact on household budgets. But these recurring adjustments, and the policy responses that follow, are best understood in the context of a deeper structural reality: Pakistan’s significant reliance on imported energy.
The figures illustrate the point clearly. Domestic refineries meet roughly 30 per cent of the country’s petrol demand, while the remaining 70 per cent is fulfilled through imported refined fuel. When crude imports are included, Pakistan sources nearly 80 per cent of its oil requirements from abroad. This is not a temporary imbalance but a longstanding feature of the country’s energy economy.
One important consequence of this dependence is the way fuel prices are determined. Even locally refined products are priced on import parity. In effect, whether petrol is produced domestically or imported, its price is linked to international oil benchmarks and the rupee’s exchange rate against the dollar. This limits the extent to which domestic policy alone can shield consumers from global market movements.
At the same time, Pakistan’s fuel consumption patterns make these price changes particularly impactful. The country uses an estimated 50 to 75 million litres of fuel daily. While petrol is widely used, diesel plays an equally vital role in supporting transport, agriculture, and logistics. As a result, any increase in fuel prices tends to ripple through the broader economy, affecting transport costs, food prices, and overall inflation.
Against this backdrop, the recent price adjustment can be seen as part of a broader effort to align domestic prices with international realities. The initial increase of Rs137 per litre — from Rs321 to Rs458 — reflected the scale of external pressures. Shortly thereafter, however, the government revisited the decision. Following intervention by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the increase was moderated by Rs80, bringing the final price to Rs378 per litre.
While the revised price still represents an increase, the adjustment indicates a willingness to respond to public concerns while navigating fiscal and external constraints. As Shehbaz Sharif has emphasised, the government is seeking to balance economic necessity with social protection, particularly in the context of rising global uncertainty.
This balancing approach is also evident in the relief measures introduced alongside the price revision. These initiatives are wide-ranging and aim to cushion the impact on both households and key sectors of the economy.
In Punjab and Islamabad, public transport has been made free to support daily commuters. In Sindh, a proposal has been put forward to provide registered motorcycle owners with Rs2,000 per month, helping offset basic fuel expenses.
At the federal level, targeted measures have been designed to reach both individuals and productive sectors. Motorcycle users are to receive a subsidy of Rs100 per litre, capped at 20 litres per month for an initial period. Small farmers will benefit from a one-time payment of Rs1,500 per acre, recognising the importance of diesel in agricultural activity.
Particular attention has also been given to the transport and logistics sector, where fuel costs have broader economic implications. Goods transport vehicles are set to receive Rs70,000 per month, with additional support for those carrying essential commodities.
Larger transport operators will receive Rs80,000 monthly, while inter-city and public service vehicles may receive up to Rs100,000 per month to help maintain stable fares. There is also a commitment to subsidise rail travel for lower-income passengers.
Importantly, the prime minister has also pointed out that the federal government is absorbing a substantial fiscal cost to protect vulnerable groups. The prime minister has said recently that a subsidy of Rs129 billion is being provided to shield poorer segments of society from the spillover effects of the Gulf war and rising international oil prices.
Taken together, these measures are intended to ease the transmission of higher fuel costs into overall inflation—especially food inflation. By supporting transport and supply chains, the government aims to limit secondary price increases that affect a wider segment of the population.
Of course, such interventions come with challenges. They require fiscal space and careful implementation to ensure that benefits reach the intended recipients. At the same time, they reflect an effort to provide targeted relief within the constraints of available resources.
More broadly, the current situation highlights an underlying vulnerability that extends beyond any single policy decision. As long as Pakistan continues to import the majority of its fuel, it will remain sensitive to global price movements, exchange rate fluctuations, and external supply conditions. In that sense, recent developments serve as a reminder of the structural nature of the issue.
Looking ahead, the path forward involves both immediate management and longer-term reform. In the short term, a combination of calibrated price adjustments and targeted relief measures remains a practical approach given existing constraints.
Over the medium to long term, however, reducing this vulnerability will be key. Expanding domestic refining capacity, diversifying the energy mix, and strengthening macroeconomic stability to support the rupee can all play a role in easing exposure to external shocks.
These are gradual processes rather than quick fixes. Yet they are essential if Pakistan is to move toward a more resilient energy framework.
The recent fuel price adjustment, and the steps taken to soften its impact, should therefore be seen as part of a broader and ongoing effort to navigate complex economic realities. Managing this balance between external pressures and domestic needs will remain a central policy challenge in the years ahead.
The writer is a research economist.
Business
Pets at Home hoping for boost under new boss despite consumer pressure
Pets at Home investors will be hoping the retailer’s new boss can lay out a strategy to return it to profit growth despite a challenging consumer backdrop.
Shares in the company currently sit close to its lowest level for almost seven years following a recent downturn in the group’s retail arm.
The dip in the group’s performance contributed to the departure of previous chief executive Lyssa McGowan late last year.
In March, former Waitrose boss James Bailey took the reins in a bid to drive a turnaround in performance.
Shareholders will be hoping the new boss can show early signs of improvement and a long-term strategy to drive growth in Pets at Home’s update on Wednesday May 27.
The pet products retailer and vet chain is expected to report an underlying pre-tax profit of around £93 million for the year to March, according to analysts.
It would represent a roughly 30% fall from last year, after the company came under pressure from weak demand for discretionary products.
Analysts have said investors will be looking at early trading in the current financial year to see how consumer spending is holding up.
AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould said: “Pets at Home could badly do with some renewed pep.
“Under executive chair Ian Burke, who has returned to a non-executive role after leading the business on an interim basis, Pets at Home laid out a plan to fix a retail business which has been badly affected by a reduction in discretionary spend on toys and treats for Britons’ furry and feathered friends.
“The country may have a reputation for loving their animal companions but in an environment where households are having to watch their pennies, these nice-to-have items were off the list.”
The group has also seen sales of pet food and similar products face fierce pricing competition from non-specialist retailers, such as supermarkets.
It has since cut prices among around 1,000 products in order to help drive activity, with cash-strapped shoppers looking for value.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that UK retail sales volumes dropped to an 11-month low in April, with a 1.3% fall for the month.
Pets at Home is predicted to report revenues of £1.47 billion for the past year, just marginally lower than £1.482 billion reported last year.
Business
India’s fuel demand growth may slow sharply in H2 2026 amid price hikes, austerity push: Report
India’s transportation fuel demand growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of 2026 as higher fuel prices, government-led conservation measures and a weakening rupee weigh on mobility and consumption trends, according to a report.The report by Kpler’s lead analyst (modelling), Elif Binici, revised down India’s 2026 refined products demand growth forecast by around 77,000 barrels per day (kbd), or 39 per cent, to nearly 78 kbd from an earlier estimate of 128 kbd.As per news agency PTI, the downgrade reflects weaker expected growth in petrol and diesel demand due to elevated fuel costs, softer mobility trends and official efforts to conserve fuel amid the ongoing West Asia crisis.Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by around Rs 5 per litre in three instalments since May 15, after oil marketing companies passed on part of the burden of soaring global crude oil prices to consumers.
Petrol demand faces steepest downside risk
The report said petrol demand is likely to see the sharpest slowdown, with projected growth revised down by 25 kbd, from 63 kbd to 38 kbd.Petrol consumption is now estimated at 1,010 kbd, compared to the earlier estimate of 1,035 kbd.According to the report, weaker commuting activity, slower discretionary travel and government fuel-saving campaigns are expected to curb fuel consumption.Annual diesel demand growth was also cut by around 20 kbd, while jet fuel demand growth was nearly halved to about 6 kbd from 11 kbd earlier due to expectations of reduced air travel and tighter spending patterns.“The revisions primarily reflect weaker expected growth in gasoline and diesel demand as higher costs, weaker mobility trends, and recent government-led fuel conservation efforts increasingly feed into domestic transportation activity,” the report said, as quoted by PTI.
Rupee weakness, crude surge add pressure
The report noted that India’s macroeconomic environment has deteriorated since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with rising crude import costs, refinery expenses and rupee depreciation increasing inflationary pressure.The rupee has weakened by around 6 per cent since the conflict began and nearly 10 per cent over the past year. Foreign exchange reserves have also reportedly declined by about 4.3 per cent since late February as authorities attempted to stabilise the currency and contain imported inflation.The report said the current average petrol price of around Rs 103 per litre remains well below the estimated breakeven level of nearly Rs 125 per litre.Diesel prices near Rs 94 per litre are also below the estimated breakeven range of Rs 115-120 per litre.Before the recent price revisions, state-run fuel retailers were reportedly losing nearly Rs 1,000 crore daily because rising crude procurement costs and currency weakness outpaced retail fuel prices.“The key issue is the inability of state-run retailers to pass through rising import costs quickly enough to restore profitability,” the report said.
Russian crude continues to support supply security
The report added that India’s dependence on discounted Russian crude imports, estimated at around 1.9-2 million barrels per day, continues to provide stability to the domestic fuel market amid geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia.Policymakers now appear to be prioritising macroeconomic stability, inflation management, foreign exchange preservation and fuel supply security over near-term fuel demand growth.The report warned that unless crude prices ease significantly, the rupee stabilises or additional fiscal support measures are introduced, further fuel price hikes and stricter fuel-conservation measures may become difficult to avoid.
Business
Scottish Government will be ‘bold, innovative and ambitious’ on industry – Flynn
The Scottish Government will be “bold, innovative and ambitious” in shaping Scotland’s industrial future, new Economy Secretary Stephen Flynn has said.
In his first official engagement in the role, Mr Flynn met former workers of the Grangemouth refinery and ExxonMobil Mossmorran ethylene plant, alongside Unite the union.
Last year, Grangemouth – Scotland’s only oil refinery – stopped processing crude oil after a century of operations.
Its closure meant the the loss of 430 of the 2,000 jobs based at the industrial complex.
In February, oil giant ExxonMobil closed its Mossmorran plastics plant in Fife with the loss of 400 jobs.
Mr Flynn said: “It has been heartening to hear more about the work that has been undertaken by a wide range of partners to support affected workers at Grangemouth and Mossmorran and drive positive outcomes for them and their families.”
He also visited the Grangemouth Industrial Complex to tour the facilities of Celtic Renewables, a biorefinery which has secured £11 million of Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise funding.
The company is projected to create nearly 150 jobs by 2030.
He continued: “I was also pleased to visit Celtic Renewables, a growing success story which illustrates that there can – and must – be an incredibly bright and positive future for our industrial heartlands and the communities they support.
“It is imperative that we are bold, innovative and ambitious in collectively shaping Scotland’s industrial future. I will work to ensure strong, vibrant and indispensable industries – which have been let down by successive UK governments – are at the heart of Scotland’s economy.”
Scottish Enterprise chief executive Adrian Gillespie said: “It was great to join the Cabinet Secretary at Celtic Renewables and show first hand Scottish Enterprise’s continuing commitment to Grangemouth.
“Celtic Renewables is a strong example of an innovative, scaling company that has benefitted from Grangemouth’s excellent connectivity and skills, enabled by funding and support from Scottish Enterprise and our partners.
“We’ve worked with the company since its start-up in 2011 and continue to do so as it accelerates plans for a full-scale biorefinery creating more high-quality jobs.”
-
Entertainment1 week agoWhere Pete Davidson, Elsie Hewitt stand after breakup: Details revealed
-
Politics1 week agoRising diesel costs from Iran war strain US school budgets
-
Tech1 week agoGreg Brockman Officially Takes Control of OpenAI’s Products in Latest Shakeup
-
Tech1 week agoWhy Is Your Grill So Dumb? The Best Grills Set Temp Like an Oven
-
Tech1 week agoThis Solar-Powered Smart Sprinkler Keeps My Lawn Watered Without Any Power Cables
-
Fashion1 week agoRMG trade bodies seek policy support from Bangladesh PM
-
Business1 week agoOil price gains and Westminster worry sink stocks
-
Tech1 week agoTesla Reveals New Details About Robotaxi Crashes—and the Humans Involved
