Higher fuel prices are testing how badly consumers want to travel this summer, whether flying or driving.

Airfare hasn’t been this high since May 2022, when airlines stumbled out of the pandemic with aircraft and employee shortages to face hordes of consumers ready for “revenge travel.” Gasoline is above $4 a gallon and could get closer to $5 a gallon this summer, AAA warned this week.

Jet fuel prices doubled in the span of less than three months this year after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, kicking off a conflict that has left a key shipping channel effectively closed.

Domestic round-trip airfares in April averaged $623, the highest in nearly four years, according to data from the Airlines Reporting Corporation, which tracks travel agency ticket sales. Jet fuel is the second-biggest expense for airlines after labor, and carriers say they are increasingly passing those costs along to customers.

Separately, airlines are also trimming their growth plans because of higher fuel costs. Even if a route isn’t cut, fewer flights on certain routes means that customers will have fewer seats to choose from and, with demand robust, that could drive up prices even more.

Spirit Airlines, the most famous budget carrier in the U.S., shut down earlier this month, and partially blamed jet fuel prices for its failure to emerge from near back-to-back bankruptcies. It was the biggest U.S. airline collapse in decades. Other airlines swooped in to snatch up those customers in the aftermath, but the carrier’s demise removes a main purveyor of low fares.

The fuel spikes have set the stage for higher fares and more expensive gas station visits this summer. The start of the peak travel season Memorial Day weekend will be a taste of how much travelers will shell out to fly while everything from groceries to clothing has become more expensive this year.

The Transportation Security Administration said it expects to screen 18.3 million people between Thursday and next Wednesday, compared with the 18.5 million it saw over a similar period last year.

So far, airline executives said, customers are still booking, and executives are optimistic about the summer travel season. They’ve also said they’re expecting a boost from the FIFA World Cup, which will be held in June and July in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and from major concerts such as Harry Styles’ residencies in Amsterdam and London this summer.

United Airlines said it expects to carry 53 million travelers between June and August, up 3 million people from last year. American Airlines has forecast 75 million customers between May 21 and Sept. 8, after Labor Day, topping its previous record, in 2019.

Travelers can still find deals if they’re flexible, said Kyle Potter, who runs the Thrifty Traveler website. He recommended using tools such as the “Explorer” tool in Google Flights that allows users to look up destinations by the length of trip and by month in a map view.

He also suggested flyers consider traveling on a Tuesday or Wednesday, when fares and traffic are often lower.

“That, in many cases, can save you hundreds of dollars per ticket, and multiply that by a family of four,” he said.

He had a simple message for travelers sitting on piles of frequent flyer miles.

“Now is the time to use your miles or your credit card points or both,” he said, warning that miles can end up devalued. “What are you waiting for? I think a lot of people hoard their miles because they want to go to to Europe in 2027.”

— CNBC’s Contessa Brewer contributed to this report.

This summer, mega artist Harry Styles will take the stage at Madison Square Garden in New York City for an exclusive 30-show residency – his only planned stop in the country and a show that’s garnered intense attention since its announcement.

Despite her best efforts, Shira Elfassy won’t be there.

“His tickets were absurd,” Elfassy, 29, told CNBC. “It felt like an insult going in and seeing, like, not only can I not get in, not only are there no tickets left, but even then, the most basic price point is $500 for a nose-bleed seat — and this is becoming commonplace.”

Instead, Elfassy said she got tickets to see other artists live, like Florence + the Machine and Olivia Rodrigo, at far lower price points. She said feeling “priced out” of some concerts is now a common occurrence.

“It’s just a weird dynamic now. … At this point, if I have to make the decision between making more summer plans or hanging out with my friends — or even just [to] pay rent — or I can go to this concert, it’s a no-brainer,” she said. “But it didn’t used to be that way.”

Elfassy represents a growing cohort of consumers who aren’t willing to keep up with the rising prices for live music, creating a K-shaped demand curve where higher-income consumers are spending more — and keeping prices inflated — while lower-income consumers are pulling back.

That dynamic has played out across discretionary spending categories, like retail, dining and travel, as Americans grapple with persistent inflation, economic uncertainty and, now, soaring gas prices.

In live music, this K-shaped environment is spurring fears that the lower end of the market is falling out entirely.

Some are calling the demand shifts “blue dot fever,” named for the blue dots on Ticketmaster seating maps that denote an unsold ticket. For some artists, it’s forcing them to take a critical look at their performances. Post Malone, Zayn and The Pussycat Dolls are just a few examples of artists who have canceled shows or tours in recent months, with the last group openly admitting that poor ticket sales was the catalyst.

Last summer, even before the most recent pricing pressures, industry research suggested higher ticket prices were helping to prop up the overall health of the market. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a 2025 report that demand for live music was expected to grow at a 7.2% compounded annual growth rate between 2024 and 2030.

Average ticket price for a concert in one of the top 100 global tours, the report found, was $136 in 2024, up 50% from an average of $91 in 2019.

“Of all the shows Live Nation has on the books this year, less than 1% have been cancelled,” a spokesperson for the Ticketmaster parent said. “That’s not ‘blue dot fever’ — it’s a normal touring year; in fact, 2026 is shaping up to be a record with concert ticket sales up 11% for the year.”

The spokesperson added that roughly 70% of tickets sold on its platform are priced under $100.

Live Nation and Ticketmaster have faced scrutiny over the company’s ticketing practices and dominant influence in the music industry. The company faced legal challenges over alleged anticompetitive behavior and reached a settlement with the Department of Justice in March. A federal jury found last month that Live Nation held an anticompetitive monopoly, though the company said in a statement at the time, “The jury’s verdict is not the last word on this matter.”

StubHub, a ticket reseller, told CNBC that the company is seeing the K-shaped pattern take shape in live music, with demand diverging fast between various events.

While StubHub said overall concert demand is up nearly 10% year-over-year, it’s not across the board. Ticket demand for stadium-scale events is up significantly, while demand for mid-size and smaller venues is waning.

The events that are struggling to sell are facing a “supply-sizing problem,” according to Jill Gonzalez, head of consumer communications at StubHub. The events earning the strongest fan attention, she said, are stadium tours, residencies and marquee festivals.

“What our data makes clear is that fan demand for live music hasn’t softened, but it’s sharpened,” Gonzalez told CNBC. “Fans are making deliberate choices about where they spend, and when they decide a show is worth it, the demand signal is as strong as anything we’ve seen on our platform.”

Ticket platform SeatGeek said while more artists are announcing tours, the resale environment remains healthy.

“If you have more artists that are flooding the market with tours, you’re going to have the gross number of cancellations pick up year-over-year, so that’s expected,” said Oliver Marvin, the company’s senior director of strategic finance. “But the overall number, cancellations as a percentage of people who are out on tour, is not too much different than what we’ve seen in prior years.”

He added that the company is seeing some consumers dive in for last-minute tickets out of hope the prices will drop for tours that aren’t garnering as much immediate demand.