Modi’s alliance set to easily win Indian Hindi heartland vote

• Winning Bihar, 3rd most-populous state, with nearly 130m people crucial.
• Modi’s coalition well ahead of majority mark of 122 seats in Bihar.
• Result would be boost for Modi after national vote setback in 2024.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition is set to comfortably retain power in the poor and populous state of Bihar, a vote count showed on Friday, giving him a boost after a disappointing national vote last year.

Winning Bihar is crucial because it is India’s third-most-populous state with nearly 130 million people and it sends the fifth-highest number of lawmakers to Parliament. Control of the eastern state strengthens any party’s power in the Hindi heartland and often helps to shape national political narratives.

Modi’s National Democratic Alliance coalition could easily cross the majority mark of 122 seats, with data from the Election Commission of India showing it was leading in more than 170 seats. TV channel NDTV said it was ahead in 191 seats, a potential gain of 69 seats from the last election.

“Bihar’s mandate is clear!” Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party said on X. “The people have made it clear — now development is the identity. Not jungle raj, good governance is needed!”

The Bihar outcome would mark a sharp reversal for Modi, who lost his parliamentary majority in last year’s national elections and had to lean on allies to remain in power. Since then, his party has steadily regained ground, winning several key state contests.

Political analysts have said one of the key factors in the Bihar election was Modi’s September transfer of ₹75 billion ($853 million) to millions of women in the state under an employment programme.

Women voters across India have turned out in greater numbers over the past decade and political parties have competed to attract them. Previously, men easily outnumbered women at India’s polling stations.

Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari, who travelled across Bihar during the election — which was held in two phases on November 6 and 11 — said it was “just the women” who were set to give Modi a better result than what he received the last time.

According to a survey this week by Tiwari’s VoteVibe agency, Modi’s alliance secured 48.5% of the female vote, more than 10 percentage points higher than the main opposition bloc.

States including Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are due to go to the polls next year. Of those states, the BJP is in power only in Assam.