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Trade deficit is not crisis, it’s investment in growth | The Express Tribune
Rising imports of industrial inputs signal economic revival, not decline, as Pakistan embarks on tariff reform
ISLAMABAD:
Each month, when the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) releases its trade figures, one number grabs headlines: the trade deficit or the gap between imports and exports. The latest data, showing a 38% increase in the first four months of the fiscal year, was no exception. Predictably, critics of trade reform were quick to argue that Pakistan’s import liberalisation is driving the country towards economic ruin.
Some even call the tariff reform a “suicide mission.” Their solution is predictable: return to the old playbook of regulatory and additional duties. But this strategy has been tried repeatedly over the last 17 years, and each time it worsened the very problems it aimed to solve, leading to stagnant growth, deeper poverty, and declining exports.
What this debate often ignores is a simple question: what kinds of imports are rising? About 85% of Pakistan’s imports consist of petroleum, chemicals, machinery, textile industry raw materials, metals, and essential food products such as edible oils, tea, and lentils. These are not luxury items; they are critical inputs for production, energy, and food security. Rising imports of this kind suggest that industries are reviving and consumer demand is strengthening, both signs of economic activity.
Despite the widening trade gap, the deficit has not drained foreign exchange reserves or worsened the current account. Even with recent loan repayments of $400 million, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves remain stable at around $14.5 billion. If imports are building productive capacity, the resulting trade deficit becomes an investment in future growth. As industries modernise and productivity improves, exports catch up, just as they have in nearly every fast-developing economy.
Some critics question why exports have not risen despite tariff cuts. But the reform process only began in July 2025. Until the last fiscal year, Pakistan was still raising tariffs. In July 2024, regulatory duties were increased on over 600 items and additional customs duties on more than 2,000. The current tariff rationalisation plan spans five years, aimed at correcting 17 years of flawed policy. Expecting exports to surge within months is unrealistic – structural reforms take time to bear fruit.
Economic history supports this view, and India’s experience offers a striking example. When the country began liberalising in 1992, its imports and exports were nearly balanced at around $20 billion, with a $2 billion trade deficit. By 2024, its merchandise imports had risen to approximately $720 billion, while exports grew to $437 billion, resulting in a $283 billion trade deficit – with China accounting for half. Yet no one accuses Manmohan Singh of steering India towards economic “suicide.” On the contrary, he is praised for revitalising India’s economy after decades of stagnation.
Pakistan’s own experience is equally telling. As the economy opened in the 1990s and accelerated around 2000, both imports and exports grew rapidly. Imports of telecom equipment, machinery, and industrial materials built the foundation for modern services and infrastructure. The trade deficit widened, but instead of staying the course, Pakistan reversed reforms after 2008, slowing growth and weakening competitiveness. The result has been prolonged stagnation.
Another major argument against tariff reform has been the fear of revenue loss. Yet the numbers tell a different story. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) had long projected gains instead of only minimal losses, and they were right. In the first quarter of this fiscal year, customs duty collections rose by 13%, exceeding targets even after duty cuts.
It may be too soon for firm conclusions, but both past experience and current trends suggest that lower tariffs are encouraging legal imports and improving compliance, not eroding revenue.
Pakistan now stands at a crossroads. It can continue to oscillate between protectionist fear and half-hearted reforms, or it can follow the path of countries that embraced openness to accelerate growth. Pakistan is no longer a bystander in global affairs. It is now positioned at the intersection of shifting geopolitical and economic currents.
To seize this moment, Pakistan must lower trade barriers and open its economy to investment and integration with regional and global markets. Opportunities of this scale are rare – if Pakistan lets this one pass, it may not get another for a generation.
To sum up, a trade deficit driven by productive imports is not a loss; it is an investment in the future. As global trade patterns shift and smaller economies integrate with larger blocs, Pakistan must not be left behind. For too long, powerful lobbies have distorted the tariff system through SROs and exemptions, protecting inefficiency at the cost of progress. It is time to level the field, resist rent-seeking pressures, and stay the course on reform. Pakistan’s path to prosperity lies not in retreat or isolation, but in embracing openness and claiming its rightful place in regional and global value chains.
THE WRITER IS A MEMBER OF THE STEERING COMMITTEE OVERSEEING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL TARIFF POLICY 202530. HE HAS PREVIOUSLY SERVED AS PAKISTAN’S AMBASSADOR TO THE WTO
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Pets at Home hoping for boost under new boss despite consumer pressure
Pets at Home investors will be hoping the retailer’s new boss can lay out a strategy to return it to profit growth despite a challenging consumer backdrop.
Shares in the company currently sit close to its lowest level for almost seven years following a recent downturn in the group’s retail arm.
The dip in the group’s performance contributed to the departure of previous chief executive Lyssa McGowan late last year.
In March, former Waitrose boss James Bailey took the reins in a bid to drive a turnaround in performance.
Shareholders will be hoping the new boss can show early signs of improvement and a long-term strategy to drive growth in Pets at Home’s update on Wednesday May 27.
The pet products retailer and vet chain is expected to report an underlying pre-tax profit of around £93 million for the year to March, according to analysts.
It would represent a roughly 30% fall from last year, after the company came under pressure from weak demand for discretionary products.
Analysts have said investors will be looking at early trading in the current financial year to see how consumer spending is holding up.
AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould said: “Pets at Home could badly do with some renewed pep.
“Under executive chair Ian Burke, who has returned to a non-executive role after leading the business on an interim basis, Pets at Home laid out a plan to fix a retail business which has been badly affected by a reduction in discretionary spend on toys and treats for Britons’ furry and feathered friends.
“The country may have a reputation for loving their animal companions but in an environment where households are having to watch their pennies, these nice-to-have items were off the list.”
The group has also seen sales of pet food and similar products face fierce pricing competition from non-specialist retailers, such as supermarkets.
It has since cut prices among around 1,000 products in order to help drive activity, with cash-strapped shoppers looking for value.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that UK retail sales volumes dropped to an 11-month low in April, with a 1.3% fall for the month.
Pets at Home is predicted to report revenues of £1.47 billion for the past year, just marginally lower than £1.482 billion reported last year.
Business
India’s fuel demand growth may slow sharply in H2 2026 amid price hikes, austerity push: Report
India’s transportation fuel demand growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of 2026 as higher fuel prices, government-led conservation measures and a weakening rupee weigh on mobility and consumption trends, according to a report.The report by Kpler’s lead analyst (modelling), Elif Binici, revised down India’s 2026 refined products demand growth forecast by around 77,000 barrels per day (kbd), or 39 per cent, to nearly 78 kbd from an earlier estimate of 128 kbd.As per news agency PTI, the downgrade reflects weaker expected growth in petrol and diesel demand due to elevated fuel costs, softer mobility trends and official efforts to conserve fuel amid the ongoing West Asia crisis.Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by around Rs 5 per litre in three instalments since May 15, after oil marketing companies passed on part of the burden of soaring global crude oil prices to consumers.
Petrol demand faces steepest downside risk
The report said petrol demand is likely to see the sharpest slowdown, with projected growth revised down by 25 kbd, from 63 kbd to 38 kbd.Petrol consumption is now estimated at 1,010 kbd, compared to the earlier estimate of 1,035 kbd.According to the report, weaker commuting activity, slower discretionary travel and government fuel-saving campaigns are expected to curb fuel consumption.Annual diesel demand growth was also cut by around 20 kbd, while jet fuel demand growth was nearly halved to about 6 kbd from 11 kbd earlier due to expectations of reduced air travel and tighter spending patterns.“The revisions primarily reflect weaker expected growth in gasoline and diesel demand as higher costs, weaker mobility trends, and recent government-led fuel conservation efforts increasingly feed into domestic transportation activity,” the report said, as quoted by PTI.
Rupee weakness, crude surge add pressure
The report noted that India’s macroeconomic environment has deteriorated since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with rising crude import costs, refinery expenses and rupee depreciation increasing inflationary pressure.The rupee has weakened by around 6 per cent since the conflict began and nearly 10 per cent over the past year. Foreign exchange reserves have also reportedly declined by about 4.3 per cent since late February as authorities attempted to stabilise the currency and contain imported inflation.The report said the current average petrol price of around Rs 103 per litre remains well below the estimated breakeven level of nearly Rs 125 per litre.Diesel prices near Rs 94 per litre are also below the estimated breakeven range of Rs 115-120 per litre.Before the recent price revisions, state-run fuel retailers were reportedly losing nearly Rs 1,000 crore daily because rising crude procurement costs and currency weakness outpaced retail fuel prices.“The key issue is the inability of state-run retailers to pass through rising import costs quickly enough to restore profitability,” the report said.
Russian crude continues to support supply security
The report added that India’s dependence on discounted Russian crude imports, estimated at around 1.9-2 million barrels per day, continues to provide stability to the domestic fuel market amid geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia.Policymakers now appear to be prioritising macroeconomic stability, inflation management, foreign exchange preservation and fuel supply security over near-term fuel demand growth.The report warned that unless crude prices ease significantly, the rupee stabilises or additional fiscal support measures are introduced, further fuel price hikes and stricter fuel-conservation measures may become difficult to avoid.
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