Business
Tesco delivers but FTSE ends four-day winning run
Blue chips snapped a four-day hot streak in London on Thursday, despite strong gains by Tesco, but remained in touching distance of Wednesday’s record highs.
The FTSE 100 Index closed down 18.70 points, 0.2%, at 9,427.73.
The FTSE 250 ended down just 2.40 points at 22,047.30, and the AIM All-Share advanced 2.54 points, 0.3%, at 788.95.
Investors in Tesco received a double dose of good news with better-than-expected first-half trading and a report suggesting that UK retailers are set to escape the top business rate tax band.
Shares in the Welwyn Garden City-based food retailer climbed 5.3%, the biggest riser on the FTSE 100.
Financial Times sources said the Treasury was moving to take large retail premises out of the highest bracket of the property levy after a recent “tense” meeting with chief executives on the issue.
Last year the Government proposed increasing business rates on properties with a rateable value of more than £500,000 to afford making a discount for small retail and hospitality premises permanent.
The British Retail Consortium has said up to 400 stores, including larger department stores, could shut if the higher rate goes through.
The report came as Tesco raised profit guidance after a better-than-expected first half, with the good weather helping to shrug off the impact of rising costs and intense competition.
“Competitive intensity remains elevated. However, in the first half, a better-than-expected customer response to our actions and the benefit of an extended period of good weather have helped offset the cost of our investments,” Tesco said in a statement.
Pre-tax profit at Tesco fell 6.3% to £1.31 billion in the 26 weeks to August 23 from £1.39 billion a year ago.
But adjusted operating profit rose 1.5% to £1.67 billion from £1.65 billion, beating Visible Alpha consensus of £1.56 billion, while adjusted diluted earnings per share jumped 6.8% to 15.43 pence from 14.45p.
Reflecting the better-than-expected performance, Tesco raised full-year adjusted operating profit guidance to between £2.9 billion and £3.1 billion, up from the previous range between £2.7 billion and £3.0 billion.
Jefferies analyst Frederick Wild said Tesco’s strong first half and guidance upgrade “caps a remarkable period of market share momentum, inflationary help, and weather-driven consumer spending uplift”.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said Tesco’s position at the top of the UK supermarket pecking order looks “more entrenched than ever”.
The pound was quoted lower at 1.3415 US dollars at the time of the London equity market close on Thursday, compared with 1.3477 US dollars on Wednesday. The euro stood at 1.1697 US dollars, down against 1.1729 US dollars. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at 147.37 yen, higher compared with 147.15 yen.
On Friday, the Government is preparing for new economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which are likely to set the scene for tax rises at the November Budget.
The Financial Times said Labour officials fear a productivity downgrade by the OBR alone could put a dent of up to £18 billion in the public finances, contributing to an overall fiscal hole of around £30 billion.
The FT said the OBR will on Friday formally submit to the Chancellor Rachel Reeves its initial pre-measures forecasts for the economy and public finances.
These will provide an early indication as to the shortfall.
In European equities on Thursday, the CAC 40 in Paris closed up 1.1%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt advanced 1.3%.
Stocks in New York were mixed at the time of the London close.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2%, the S&P 500 index was 0.1% lower and the Nasdaq Composite 0.2% higher.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.11%, trimmed from 4.13% on Wednesday.
The yield on the US 30-year Treasury stood at 4.70%, narrowed from 4.72%.
Joshua Mahoney, at Rostro, noted the ongoing federal government shutdown appears to be having little impact on market appetite for risk.
But he pointed to a White House memo which warned that the economy loses around 15 billion dollars in GDP for each week the government remains shut, a “sizeable headwind if the deadlock lingers”.
Back in London, 3i Group gained 4.0% after UBS raised the private equity and venture capital company to “buy” from “neutral”, and upped its price target to 4,700p from 4,450p.
UBS believes a slowdown at Netherlands-based retailer Action is “coming to an end”, making 3i’s shares more attractive.
Action is the largest portfolio asset at 3i, which UBS believes trades “as a proxy” for the retailer.
But Experian slumped 4.2% after Fair Isaac, a software firm, announced a new programme which would give mortgage lenders the option to calculate and distribute FICO credit scores directly to customers.
Citi analysts explained that as “things stand today, credit bureaus (Experian, Equifax, TransUnion) sell the data and the FICO score to a tri-merge (merging the three reports).”
The broker noted Fair Isaac’s press release states that it is working to license its algorithm to the resellers, enabling them to pass these on to their customers, implying that this would cut out the margin that the likes of Experian and Equifax make on the FICO credit score itself.
“Our initial reaction is that this is negative for Experian and Equifax,” Citi said.
Analysts at Jefferies estimate that Fair Isaac’s new models could hurt credit bureau earnings by an average of 10% to 15%.
“By introducing a licensing programme for tri-merge resellers, Fair Isaac is effectively taking away the ability of the credit bureaus to mark up the FICO score. For the bureaus to take price, they will now have to directly negotiate with the lenders, as well as compete with each other,” Jefferies explained.
Equifax was also marked down, dropping 9.3%, while Transunion fell 12%.
Fair Isaac shares soared 21%.
BT Group fell 2.5% as Exane BNP cut the company to “underperform” from “neutral” and lowered its price target for the telecommunications provider to 150p from 160p.
Diageo edged up 0.7% on a report that the US is considering easing tariffs on Scotch whisky, a potential boost for the Johnnie Walker owner.
Brent oil continued its weak run, trading at 64.42 dollars a barrel on Thursday, down from 65.53 dollars late on Wednesday.
Gold traded at 3,830.85 dollars an ounce on Thursday, down against 3,862.37 dollars on Wednesday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Tesco, up 22.7p at 452.4p, 3i, up 168p at 4,310p, Rentokil Initial, up 9.8p at 387.2p, Croda, up 69p at 2,838p and ICG, up 54p at 2,268p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Experian, down 155p at 3,520p, BT, down 5.8p at 185.7p, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, down 190p at 6,580p, WPP, down 10.4p at 360.4p and Fresnillo, down 64p at 2,290p.
Friday’s global economic calendar has a slew of composite PMIs readings, including in the eurozone and the UK.
Friday’s UK corporate calendar has full-year results from pub operator JD Wetherspoon.
Contributed by Alliance News
Business
Why is this Budget so important for the UK economy?
Next week, the Chancellor will reveal the Government’s latest set of tax and spending policies as she also outlines her ambitions for the economy under the Labour Government.
The state of the economy is the key focal point ahead of the Budget, amid criticism from industry over the impact of the Government’s first Budget last year.
The state’s official forecaster will also lay out its key projections over how the economy is set to fare over the coming years, with fears that it could present a gloomy outlook in the short term.
Here the PA news agency looks at the importance of this Budget for the economy:
– What is the backdrop of the Budget?
The UK economy started the year with positive growth, with GDP (gross domestic product) rising by around 0.7% over the first quarter of the year.
Nevertheless, this had been boosted by stronger trade ahead of expected tariffs and came amid an increasingly uncertain global economic backdrop.
This growth has steadily slowed down as the year progressed, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reporting growth of 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.1% in the third quarter of the year.
The dip has come amid declines in the production sector as well as slower growth in the services sector.
Meanwhile, inflation has been elevated over the past year, striking a peak of 3.8% in July, August and September.
It dipped slightly last month – although at a slower rate than expected – but also comes amid a backdrop of falling wage growth.
Consumer finances had been supported by stronger wages but real wage growth has slowed significantly in recent months because of pressure in the labour market.
Unemployment has also lifted, striking a four-year-high of 5% in the three months to September.
– Why is the last budget important?
Weak hiring, slowing wage growth and price inflation have all been partly linked to policies which came into force following the Labour Government’s first budget last year.
The budget led to higher taxes and labour costs for many businesses when the policies came into force in April this year.
Firms were affected by the increase in the national minimum wage, higher National Insurance Contributions (NICs), reduced business rates discounts and other taxes, such as a new packaging tax.
The Bank of England highlighted that the increase in NICs and the minimum wage partly contributed to higher food price inflation earlier this year as impacted firms passed some of this on to their customers.
– What is the view of businesses ahead of the Budget?
Businesses and trade bodies have stressed that they came under pressure from the previous budget and have urged the Government to avoid hitting them with further increases.
Industry data has also shown that some business spending has been held back ahead of the Budget, with firms cautious about their financial position.
The latest monthly flash PMI economic data – which shows activity in the UK’s private sector – showed that activity was dented by cautious decision making from firms before the Budget.
– What is the view of consumers?
Consumer spending has also been broadly cautious in recent months, with Bank of England policymakers recently highlighting a focus on saving in favour of spending.
On Friday, the ONS said retail sales contracted in October for the first time in three months as shoppers also held off before the Budget.
Economists have cautioned that predicted rises in personal taxes at the Budget come mean that some consumers will reduce their spending plans rather than just delay them until nearer to Christmas.
Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said: “The risk is that the fourth quarter isn’t a golden one for retailers and that higher taxes in the Budget restrain retail spending over the crucial festive period and going into next year.”
– Why has there been focus on the Government’s ‘fiscal hole’ and what does this mean?
The so-called “fiscal hole” is the gap between the Government’s projected spending and its projected revenues, typically through taxes or borrowing.
This is particularly important for the Government as it seeks to meet the fiscal rule that it must balance spending and revenues over the next five years.
Economists have predicted that a significant “fiscal hole” has grown since the last spending review, with spending reductions lower than expected because of failures to pass welfare cuts, increased borrowing costs and expected readjustment to productivity forecasts.
Nevertheless, reports have suggested that original predictions of a roughly £30 billion fiscal hole have now been reduced, with the Financial Times indicating the OBR think this will be nearer to £20 billion.
Last week, reports indicated the Government would therefore not push forward with expected increases to income tax as they did not need to raise as much money in order to plug this black hole.
On Wednesday, the Office for Budget Responsibility will reveal how much money new spending reductions or tax increases will generate in order to address this.
It will also unveil its latest forecasts for key economic metrics such as economic growth, unemployment and inflation.
– Will the Budget be important for the financial markets?
The Budget can impact trading in the financial markets, as has significant speculation about potential policy decisions.
Typically, the value of the pound and the price of gilts – government bonds – are the most likely to be influenced by budget policy.
Gilt yields, which rise as prices fall, ticked higher earlier this week but are still significantly lower than earlier this year as borrowing costs have drifted lower amid lower interest rates.
Both the pound and gilt prices tend to reach positively to cautious spending commitments and limited tax changes, particularly if they believe tax policy is likely to hamper economic growth or wider investment.
The FTSE 100 and other domestic equity indexes do not tend to be directly impacted by changes in domestic policy, although they can be influenced by fluctuations in the pound.
Stocks in specific sectors which are targeted by policy could however move in value.
For example, listed gambling companies have seen speculation of increased levies on sports betting press down on their share value.
Business
Rail fares to be frozen for first time in 30 years
Rail fares are to be frozen for the first time in 30 years, the Government has announced.
Ministers said the move will save millions of rail travellers hundreds of pounds off season tickets, peak and off-peak returns between major cities.
Commuters on the more expensive routes will save more than £300 a year.
The Government said the changes are part of its plans to rebuild a publicly owned Great British Railways that will deliver value for money through bringing rail tickets into the 21st century with tap in tap out and digital ticketing, alongside investing in superfast wifi.
The announcement applies to England and services run by English train operating companies.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “Next week at the Budget I’ll set out the fair choices to deliver on the country’s priorities to cut NHS waiting lists, cut national debt and cut the cost of living.
“That’s why we’re choosing to freeze rail fares for the first time in 30 years, which will ease the pressure on household finances and make travelling to work, school or to visit friends and family that bit easier.”
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: “We all want to see cheaper rail travel, so we’re freezing fares to help millions of passengers save money.
“Commuters on more expensive routes will save more than £300 per year, meaning they keep more of their hard-earned cash.
“This is part of our wider plans to rebuild Great British Railways the public can be proud of and rely on.”
Ministers said a typical commuter travelling to work three days a week using flexi-season tickets will save £315 a year travelling from Milton Keynes to London, £173 travelling from Woking to London and £57 from Bradford to Leeds.
The freeze will apply to all regulated fares, including seasons, peak returns for commuters and off-peak returns between major cities, benefitting more than a billion passenger journeys said the Government.
The move was warmly welcomed by rail unions and passenger groups.
Mick Whelan, general secretary of the train drivers union Aslef, said: “We are pleased that after 14 years of the Tories pricing people off our railways, this Labour Government is helping people to commute to work and travel for pleasure.
“This is the right decision, at the right time, to help passengers be able to afford to make that journey they need to take, and to help grow our railway in this country, because the railway is Britain’s green alternative – taking cars and lorries off our congested roads and moving people and goods safely around our country in an environmentally-friendly way.”
Alex Robertson, chief executive of passenger watchdog Transport Focus said: “Freezing fares will be extremely welcome news for rail passengers who consistently tell us value for money is their highest priority, alongside trains running on time. It should also make it more attractive for people to use the train more often or for the first time.
“We’ve always recognised there is a difficult balance to strike in how the railway is funded between fares and public subsidy. That makes today’s announcement particularly welcome.”
Eddie Dempsey, general secretary of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union, said: “This freeze is a welcome first step towards better value fares for passengers and shows that Government plans for public ownership of the railways can deliver real tangible benefits for passengers.
“More affordable fares will encourage greater use of public transport, supporting jobs, giving a shot in the arm to local economies and helping to improve the environment.
“As more passengers return to the railway, it is worth remembering that a well-staffed network with ticket office workers on hand to help people find the best and most affordable tickets, is the best way forward for the rail industry.”
TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said: “The disastrous privatisation experiment left regular train travel unaffordable and unreliable for far too many, but this Government is turning the page on the failed era of privatisation by delivering publicly-owned railways which put passengers above profit.
“This rail fare freeze will be a huge relief to working people who have got used to paying through the nose for a shabby service.”
A Rail Delivery Group spokesperson said: “The Government’s decision to freeze fares is good news for customers. Use of the railway continues to grow year on year, helping people travel to work and connect with family, while supporting a more sustainable future. We want our railways to thrive, that’s why we’re committed to working with Government to ensure upcoming railway reforms deliver real benefits for customers.”
The Conservatives welcomed the freeze but said the Government was “late to the platform”.
Shadow transport secretary Richard Holden said: “In Government, the Conservatives kept fares on the right track with below-inflation rises and consistently called for no further hikes to protect hard-working commuters.”
Business
Markets reforms: Govt to table Securities Markets Code Bill in Winter session; unified law to merge Sebi, Depositories & trading Acts – The Times of India
The government has listed the Securities Markets Code Bill 2025 for introduction in the Winter session of Parliament starting December 1, according to a Lok Sabha bulletin. The unified legislation is aimed at boosting ease of doing business and reducing regulatory friction across India’s financial markets. The Bill proposes merging key securities laws, including the Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992, the Depositories Act, 1996, and the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956, into a single code. The unified framework was first announced in the Union Budget 2021-22, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed consolidating multiple laws governing securities markets — including the Government Securities Act, 2007 — into a rationalised code. Experts said the move could reduce compliance costs and minimise overlaps between rules enacted by Sebi, depositories and the central government. Bringing the Government Securities Act within a unified code could also strengthen credibility of sovereign borrowing and help channel more foreign capital, they noted.
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