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Reeves could raise billions without breaking Labour pledges – IFS

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Reeves could raise billions without breaking Labour pledges – IFS



Rachel Reeves could raise tens of billions from tax reforms without breaking Labour’s manifesto pledges but must avoid “half-baked fixes” to Britain’s economic woes at the Budget, leading economists have said.

The Government is under pressure to balance the books ahead of November’s autumn statement amid warnings of a black hole estimated to be as much as £50 billion in the public finances.

But in a wide-ranging report, the Institute for Fiscal Studies urged the Chancellor to resist “simply hiking rates” without making other changes to an “unfair” and “inefficient” tax system.

It also warned that restricting income tax relief on pension contributions “should be avoided” and repeated its cautions against an annual wealth tax, which it says would penalise savers, or increasing stamp duty.

Among the options available to the Chancellor as set out by the IFS are:

– Ending capital gains tax relief on death, which allows for assets to be inherited without paying CGT on the increase in value over the deceased person’s lifetime, to raise £2.3 billion in 2029-30.

– Impose a “one-off” tax on wealth, while avoiding what it described as “serious drawbacks” of a recurring wealth tax.

– Double council tax rates on the top two property bands to raise £4.4 billion. Any extra cash from changes to council tax would flow to local authorities rather than central government, but Ms Reeves could in turn reduce the grants paid to local authorities if she wanted to bolster the Treasury’s coffers, the IFS said.

– Reforming death duties to abolish the additional £175,000 tax-free allowance that can be used when passing on a primary residence to a direct descendant, raising around £6 billion.

– Increasing the bank levy and the bank surcharge, which taken together will already raise a total of £2.4 billion in 2025-26. A one percentage point increase in the bank surcharge would raise around £0.4 billion in 2029-30.

– Tackling non-compliance to narrow a widening corporation tax gap between the amount of tax the Government thinks should be paid and how much it actually collects.

“It would be possible for the Chancellor to raise tens of billions of pounds a year more in revenue without breaking the letter of Labour’s manifesto promise not to increase the ‘big three’ taxes.

“But doing so would not be straightforward,” the IFS said.

On the other hand, extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds including national insurance contributions (NICs) further would be expected to raise around £10.4 billion a year from 2029-30.

But this would amount to a breach of Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase taxes for “working people” which includes income tax, national insurance and VAT, the IFS said.

The think tank also called for a wider overhaul of the council tax system, arguing that banding is still based on the value of properties as of 1991 and must be updated to end a “regressive” and “hard to justify” rate structure.

It said a “good end goal” would be to replace stamp duty on housing and council tax with a “new recurrent property tax” proportionate to updated values.

“Changing rates and thresholds is all very well, but unless the Chancellor is willing to pursue genuine reform it will be taxpayers that shoulder the cost of her neglect,” the report, which forms a chapter in the IFS’ wider budget assessment for 2025, says.

Economists have warned Ms Reeves is set for a £41 billion shortfall on her self-imposed rule of balancing day-to-day spending with tax receipts in 2029-30 ahead of her Budget next month.

Isaac Delestre, a senior research economist at the think tank and an author of the chapter, said Ms Reeves would have “fallen short” if she limits her ambition to a dash for revenue without wider reform.

“Almost any package of tax rises is likely to weigh on growth, but by tackling some of the inefficiency and unfairness in our existing tax system, the Chancellor could limit the economic damage,” he said.

“The last thing we need in November is directionless tinkering and half-baked fixes. There is an opportunity here.

“The Chancellor should use this Budget to take real steps down the road towards a more rational tax system that is better geared to promoting the prosperity and well-being of taxpayers.”



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Trump’s 100% tariff row: China urges US to correct ‘wrong practices’; warns of corresponding measures – The Times of India

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Trump’s 100% tariff row: China urges US to correct ‘wrong practices’; warns of corresponding measures – The Times of India


Beijing has warned that it will take “corresponding measures” to protect its interests if the US proceeds with plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods.At a regular press briefing on Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian urged Washington to promptly correct its “wrong practices,” adding that any action should be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit, as quoted by Reuters.The remarks came as a response to President Donald Trump’s plan to levy an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, escalating tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Chinese imports to the country are now set to face a total of 130% duty.Earlier in the day, the US president had hinted that the 100% tariff remains in place, though the deadline could change.When asked by reporters whether, “100% tariffs on China on November 1st still the plan?” Trump replied, “Yeah. Right now it is. Let’s see what happens.”The US president imposed the additional tariff on Chinese imports after Beijing restricted exports of rare earth minerals. In a post on social media platform, Trump said, “Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position… the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying.”In response, the Chinese commerce ministry accused Washington of fueling trade tensions and said “Wilful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China.”A spokesperson for the ministry said “China’s position on the trade war is consistent. We do not want it, but we are not afraid of it.”





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Rachel Reeves should avoid ‘half-baked’ tax fixes in Budget, says IFS

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Rachel Reeves should avoid ‘half-baked’ tax fixes in Budget, says IFS


Chancellor Rachel Reeves should avoid “directionless tinkering and half-baked fixes” when trying to boost the government’s tax take in next month’s Budget, a leading think tank has said.

Taxes are widely expected to go up in the Budget, with pressure on the chancellor to raise money in order to meet her self-imposed rules for government finances.

However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) – regarded as one of the UK’s most influential economic voices – has said some tax rises could be “especially economically harmful”.

The Treasury said the chancellor had been clear the Budget would strike the right balance between funding public services, while also encouraging growth and investment.

Some analysts have estimated that Reeves will have to raise tens of billions of pounds through either increasing taxes or cutting spending in order to meet her rules which she has described as “non-negotiable”.

The two main rules are:

  • Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
  • To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament

Before the 2024 general election, Labour promised not to increase income tax, National Insurance or VAT for working people.

The IFS said it would be possible for the chancellor to raise tens of billions of pounds a year more in revenue without breaking these manifesto promises, but this would not be straightforward.

Its director Helen Miller told BBC’s Radio 4’s Today programme: “The politics is important and we’re going to hear lots and lots about whether Rachel Reeves can raise the money she wants without breaking one of her manifesto pledges – and that’s worth thinking about – but the economics is important too.”

The IFS said there are “serious constraints” on the next four biggest taxes – corporation tax, council tax, business rates and fuel duties – while “some other tax-raising options would be especially economically harmful”.

The IFS’s comments came in an extract from its annual Green Budget, which analyses the challenges facing the chancellor.

In it, the think tank urged wider reform to the tax system which would align “overall tax rates across different forms of income”, something it says would be “fairer and more growth friendly”.

“There is an opportunity to be bold and take steps towards a system that does less to impede growth and works better for us all,” said Ms Miller who is one of the authors of the report.

It suggests reforms to property tax and capital gains tax as “good places to start”.

Speaking to the Today programme Ms Miller said that stamp duty is an “absolutely awful tax” and said council tax, which is based on 1991 property valuations, is “ludicrously out of date” and “regressive”.

“Make it a tax based on up-to-date property values, make it proportional, and raise revenue from that rather than the current council tax and stamp duty,” she added.

The report goes on to look at a number of trade-offs the government could make in an effort to bring in more income.

It warns against a wealth tax – which it said would face “huge practical challenges”, potentially penalising savings and encouraging wealthier people to leave the country.

“If the chancellor wants to raise more from the better-off, a better approach would be to fix existing wealth-related taxes, including capital gains tax,” it noted.

It says property taxation is “an area in desperate need of reform”. It calls for a reformed council tax based on current property values, rather than the current system that “ludicrously” uses values from 1991.

Extending the current freeze on income tax thresholds, which is due to end in 2028, could raise “a significant amount”. Speaking to the BBC in September, Rachel Reeves did not rule this out.

The IFS noted that restricting income tax relief for pension contributions could potentially raise a large sum – but should be avoided as it would be “unfair and distortionary”.

It said there were “better options” for increasing tax on pensions, such as reforming the tax-free element.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “The chancellor has been clear that at Budget she will strike the right balance between making sure that we have enough money to fund our public services, whilst also ensuring that we can bring growth and investment to businesses.”



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ICAI in talks to provide data for sovereign AI – The Times of India

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ICAI in talks to provide data for sovereign AI – The Times of India







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