Business
With two months to Christmas, here’s what retail leaders expect for holiday shopping
There’s just two months until Christmas Eve, and retailers are meeting a more cautious shopper with earlier offerings.
Most retailers won’t report third-quarter results or updated holiday expectations until just before Thanksgiving, largely considered the sector’s most important week of the year. By then, many shoppers will have already started checking off holiday shopping lists.
Amazon’s October Prime Day sales event and competitors’ ever-earlier Black Friday deals grab some portion of the holiday wallet share. The unofficial kickoff to the holiday shopping season comes as executives point to a bifurcation in consumer spending, with lower-income consumers feeling the strain on their budgets, and as a government shutdown and tariff costs threaten purchasing power.
Kohl’s is among the retailers chasing holiday shopping early with hopes of boosting the total haul.
“We want to make sure we’re driving that early consideration knowing that they’re shopping early,” Kohl’s Chief Marketing Officer Christie Raymond said at a media event earlier this month.
The off-mall department store is starting its holiday marketing campaign next week, a week earlier than last year, when it waited until after the election. In the coming days it will be breaking out the rest of the holiday merchandise not already set out in stores.
A key part of Kohl’s holiday strategy is to capture shoppers not only early, but often.
Raymond said during the last holiday season, between November and January, shoppers made “15 plus trips” on average to stores across the industry, but checked out with smaller baskets. Those findings were based on a survey that Kohl’s conducted with a third-party research firm.
“[Consumers are] doing the work to get what they want at the price they want to pay,” she said.
While Academy Sports and Outdoors CEO Steve Lawrence agreed that shoppers are savvy when it comes to price monitoring, he said he expects customers “to aggregate their spending around those key shopping moments on the calendar where they know they can get the best deals.”
Both Kohl’s and Academy Sports cater largely to a middle-income shopper. Still, Lawrence said consumers are paying close attention to discount events.
“If we run the same promotion this year that we ran last year, there’s higher take rate on it,” he said. “I think that’s a sign customers are really savvy, and they’re figuring out when it’s the right time to shop.”
Shifting shopping habits
Lawrence said that while promotions are part of every holiday season’s playbook, Academy Sports will be tweaking how it runs discounts this year in light of higher engagement with the deals.
“If last year we ran a promotion for 10 days, maybe I only run it for 4 days over the Thanksgiving weekend,” he said. “Maybe instead of having a whole brand promoted, maybe it’s only the key categories within that brand, right? Or maybe in some cases, it might be promoting at a slightly lower discount.”
Raymond said Kohl’s is seeing shoppers reaching for lower-price options and expects that to continue during the holiday season.
“Customers maybe were purchasing a premium brand, but we are seeing them trading down to private brands,” she said. “We think we’re in actually a great position to capitalize on that.”
A private brand is one made for and sold by only one retailer, allowing for more control over design and, importantly, cost. That can mean lower prices for shoppers and higher margins for the retailer than a national brand.
Shoppers carry Macy’s and Nordstrom bags at Broadway Plaza in Walnut Creek, California, US, on Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release personal spending figures on December 20.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
While Kohl’s doesn’t disclose the proportion of its sales that are private label, Chief Merchandising Officer Nick Jones said it’s not as high as it used to be, adding there’s opportunity to boost that share this holiday season, particularly for shoppers trying to stretch their wallets.
About 23% of Academy Sports business is private label, the company has said.
“In a lot of cases, [our private label] is our best expression of value,” Lawrence said. “Our goal is to be at or better than the best price on a given day.”
However, Lawrence said, innovation has to continue to inspire sales.
‘Cautiously optimistic’
The retail industry has repeatedly described its customer in recent quarters as “choiceful,” to indicate thoughtful spending, but also “resilient.” Executives continue to use those descriptors, or synonyms for them, for the upcoming holiday season.
“I think certainly with inflation in certain categories, it’s put some pressure on spending power,” Lawrence said. “But you know, what we’ve also seen is customers are very resilient. They do come out during the key shopping time periods. They came out for Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, back-to-school. We expect they’re going to come out again for holiday.”
Dick’s Sporting Goods Executive Chairman Ed Stack told CNBC this week he thought the consumer was “a little bit stressed” this season, but that he’s “cautiously optimistic.”
“If you’re going to provide value to the consumer, and they can see that, feel that value — and I’m not talking about from a price standpoint, could be innovation … then they are going to come and they are going to buy,” Stack said.
Executives for all three retailers agree inventory positions for holiday will be normal, despite tariff uncertainty that many feared would affect order volumes. None of the three were expecting merchandise shortages.
“I don’t think [inventory availability] is going to be any different than it has been in the past,” Stack said. “That really super hot item that everybody wants? That’s probably going to be in short supply, like it is every year.”
Vets will be legally bound to prescription fee caps and publishing price lists among new measures which will start coming into force later this year, the competition watchdog has announced.
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said its final reforms for the sector will help pet owners better navigate the vet services market.
Other legally binding measures will include a price comparison website and mandatory branding by the large groups to boost competition and drive down prices.
The CMA said pet owners using a vet practice that is part of a larger chain can expect to see changes before Christmas, including standard price lists.
The measures follow the CMA finding that fees have risen at almost twice the rate of inflation, with pet owners not being given enough information about their vet and the prices of treatments.
Martin Coleman, chairman of the independent Inquiry Group, said: “This is the most extensive review of veterinary services in a generation, and today’s reforms will make a real difference to the millions of pet owners who want the best for their pets but struggle to find the practice, treatment and price that meets their needs.
“Too often, people are left in the dark about who owns their practice, treatment options and prices – even when facing bills running into thousands of pounds.
“Our measures mean it will be made clear to pet owners which practices are part of large groups, which are charging higher prices, and for the first time, vet businesses will be held to account by an independent regulator.
“Our changes put pet owners at the centre but also help vets by enhancing trust in the profession and protecting clinical judgment from undue commercial pressure – and that is important to ensure our pets continue to get the best care.”
The CMA said practices must publish a comprehensive price list for standard services, including consultations, common procedures, diagnostics, written prescriptions and cremation options under its new rules.
Prescriptions – for which “many” practices charge £30 or more for each – are to be capped at £21 for the first medicine and £12.50 for any additional medicines.
Practices must also provide a written estimate in advance for any treatment expected to cost £500 or more, including aftercare costs, as well as an itemised bill.
Emergency care will be the only exception for written estimates.
Prices and information about who owns the surgery are to be made available to pet owners through the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons (RCVS) ‘Find a Vet’ service, which will share the data with third-party comparison sites.
Vet businesses must make it clear whether they are part of a group or an independent business, with details of group ownership to be displayed on signs at the surgery and online.
British Veterinary Association president Rob Williams said: “The majority of the CMA’s measures focus on increasing transparency and information, which will help pet owners make more informed choices and support competition, which is a really positive step.”
He added: “Delivering highly skilled veterinary medicine is costly and whilst we recognise prices have risen sharply in recent years this is due to a number of factors, including the higher costs all businesses are experiencing – and vet practices are not immune.
“Plus, thanks to advances in diagnostics and medical technology over the last 20 years, vets can now do much more to manage disease and injury in animals, whereas in the past the only option available may have been to euthanase.
“Owners today also have a greater expectation of their vet, with many expecting human quality healthcare for their pets and whilst this is possible to deliver, it comes at a cost.”
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An Estée Lauder pop-up store is seen inside a Daimaru store on Nanjing Road in Shanghai, China, Aug. 6, 2021.
Costfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images
Estée Lauder Companies said Monday that it is in talks with Spanish beauty group Puig to potentially merge the two companies.
“No final decision has been made, and no agreement has been reached,” Estée Lauder said in a statement.
Shares of the U.S. beauty company were down nearly 8% following the news, which was first reported by the Financial Times. Puig’s stock rose roughly 3%.
Puig owns major beauty brands including Charlotte Tilbury, Jean Paul Gaultier and Rabanne. The companies did not disclose any financial details of the potential deal.
Estée Lauder has been struggling amid ongoing headwinds from tariffs and its restructuring as it enacts its “Beauty Reimagined” turnaround plan to revitalize the business. In its second-quarter earnings report last month, the beauty retailer said it’s expecting a $100 million hit to its full-year profitability due to tariff impacts.
Estée Lauder’s stock has dropped roughly 25% this year.
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