Business
Home Depot cuts earnings outlook as home improvement demand falls short of expectations
Home Depot on Tuesday cut its full-year profit forecast and missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations for the third straight quarter as it saw weaker home improvement demand, tepid consumer spending and lower than usual storm activity.
The retailer said it now expects full-year sales will climb about 3% and comparable sales, which take out the impact of one-time factors like store openings and calendar differences, to be slightly positive. That compares to its previous expectations for full-year sales to grow by 2.8% and comparable sales to increase by 1%.
The revised outlook includes an estimated $2 billion in incremental revenue from GMS, a building-products distributor that Home Depot acquired earlier this year. The company’s sales were not part of its previous full-year guidance.
Home Depot expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to decline by about 5% from the year-ago period, compared to its prior expectations that they would fall by about 2%
In a CNBC interview, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said the retailer previously expected home improvement activity would increase. It also anticipated higher sales of roofing materials, generators and other supplies that typically sell before and after seasonal storms.
Neither dynamic materialized, he said, putting pressure on the business.
“When we set guidance, we had anticipated that demand would begin to accelerate gradually in the back half of the year as interest rates and mortgage rates eased,” he said. “But what we saw was that ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand.”
Here’s what Home Depot reported for the fiscal third quarter compared with Wall Street’s estimates, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $3.74 adjusted vs. $3.84 expected
- Revenue: $41.35 billion vs. $41.11 billion expected
Home Depot’s stock dropped about 2% in premarket trading Tuesday. As of Monday’s close, the company’s shares are down about 8% so far this year. That trails the S&P 500’s 13% gains during the same period.
For Home Depot, housing turnover typically sparks larger and more lucrative projects as customers fix up their homes before or after moving. Those big projects, however, have dropped in frequency as higher interest rates have led to steeper mortgage rates and borrowing costs for loans, which a homeowner may use to pay for a kitchen remodel or major addition.
Since roughly the middle of 2023, McPhail has told CNBC that homeowners have been in a “deferral mindset.” That’s led to a bit of a waiting game for Home Depot, as it awaits either lower mortgage rates or a shift by consumers who get used to higher mortgage rates as the new normal.
In the most recent three-month period, that waiting game continued. McPhail told CNBC that demand was “stable” from the fiscal second quarter to the third quarter when adjusting for the lack of hurricanes.
But, he added, “at this point, it’s hard to identify near-term catalysts that would lead to acceleration.”
Home Depot’s net income for the three-month period that ended Nov. 2 dropped to $3.60 billion, or $3.62 per share, from $3.65 billion, or $3.67 per share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue decreased from $40.22 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Average ticket, the typical amount spent by customers at the store or on the company’s website, rose 1.8% year over year in the quarter. However, customer transactions fell 1.6% year over year.
A bright spot in the quarter was online sales, which rose by 11% year over year, McPhail said.
Compared to other big-box retailers, Home Depot’s customers tend to be more financially stable. About 90% of its do-it-yourself customers own their homes and the home professionals who shop at the retailer tend to get hired by homeowners.
Even so, McPhail said Home Depot’s weaker outlook came in part because shoppers across income groups are reluctant to take on high-dollar projects. He said a slower housing market and the higher cost of borrowing has contributed to the trend.
He said other factors may also be having a chilling effect, including the prolonged government shutdown, an uptick in corporate layoff announcements and a decline in home values in some markets.
As do-it-yourself customers postpone bigger projects, the company has tried to attract more business from contractors, roofers and other professionals.
The company has made two key purchases of pro-related companies. Last year, it bought Texas-based SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion — the largest acquisition in its history. The company sells supplies to professionals in the landscaping, pool and roofing businesses. Earlier this year, Home Depot announced it was buying GMS.
Like other retailers, Home Depot has felt the pinch of higher costs on some imported items because of tariffs. McPhail said in May that the company was diversifying the countries where it sourced its goods and intended to “generally maintain our current pricing levels across our portfolio.”
However, company leaders warned in August that it may have to hike prices in some categories because of higher tariffs.
McPhail told CNBC that Home Depot has increased some items’ prices, but said “where there were price actions, they were modest.”
He said Home Depot has kept prices the same for some key items or even been able to reduce them. For example, he said, its best-selling seven-and-a-half foot Grand Duchess Christmas tree and many of its strings of lights for trees have dropped in price.
Business
Workers’ rights reforms will cost billions less after concessions, analysis shows
Archie MitchellBusiness reporter
Getty ImagesA series of concessions on Labour’s flagship workers’ rights reforms will cut the cost to firms adopting them by billions of pounds, a government impact assessment shows.
An initial analysis by officials found that implementing the party’s measures to bolster workers’ rights would cost firms up to £5bn a year.
However, an updated analysis on Wednesday, which took into account major concessions made by ministers, said it will now cost companies £1bn a year.
The concessions were welcomed by business groups, but faced fierce criticism from some left-wing Labour MPs and union leaders.
The Employment Rights Act will give workers access to sick pay and paternity leave from the first day on the job and introduce new protections for pregnant women and new mothers.
In November, Labour dropped plans to give all workers the right to claim unfair dismissal from their first day in a job. Instead, it will bring in enhanced protections after six months in employment, the bill’s most significant measure.
Alongside concessions on unfair dismissal, the government will phase in the overall package over several years, with many of the measures still subject to consultation and secondary legislation.
The revised impact assessment also said the lower cost estimate reflected “clearer implementation timelines” and more available evidence about the policies.
But the British Chambers of Commerce said the £1bn figure “is likely to be a massive underestimate”.
Policy director Kate Shoesmith said: “The impact figure doesn’t adequately account for the harder to quantify costs. Those include staff time for understanding and implementing new processes or explaining these to colleagues.
“Concessions such as introducing the six-month qualifying period will reduce costs – but not on the scale this latest assessment suggests.”
The shadow business and trade secretary, Andrew Griffith, said: “The government spent a whole year denying it, but even after they fudged the figures to favour them, the truth is clear: their Unemployment Act will cost businesses billions.
“They have also been forced to admit it will cost young and vulnerable people their jobs – just as we always warned.”
The latest impact assessment also said the Employment Rights Act would have a small positive impact on employment, boosting the amount of people in work by 0.1%.
It also said the new measures could have a “small, positive direct impact on economic growth”.
Meanwhile, stronger workers’ rights could benefit about 18 million workers, up from an earlier estimate of around 15 million, the analysis showed.
Trade unions welcomed the latest impact assessment, saying it would bring “significant benefits to UK workers, our economy and wider society”.
The Trades Union Congress (TUC) said stronger rights at work are “good for workers and employers – driving up labour market participation, improving health, raising productivity and boosting demand”.
Its general secretary Paul Nowak called for ministers to “finish the job as soon as possible”, warning that secondary legislation to bring in the measures must be “watertight”.
Mike Clancy, general secretary of the Prospect trade union, said: “This impact assessment is clear that the Employment Rights Act is good for workers, good for growth, and good for wider society.
“The sensible compromises agreed between Government, businesses, and trade unions were intended to make this legislation more workable for all parties, while still delivering robust protections for workers, and this report clearly demonstrates the success of that approach.”
The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) said the Employment Rights Act will “transform the world of work, delivering stronger protections and higher living standards”.
A spokesperson said: “By making work pay, and more secure, this new analysis demonstrates how it will boost productivity, cut staff turnover, and put more money in the pockets of working people.”
Business
Tesco and M&S report strong Christmas food sales
Retail giants Tesco and Marks & Spencer both saw a bump in food sales over the vital Christmas period despite both mentioning a challenging economic backdrop.
Tesco said sales in the UK were up 3.2% from last year and it had now notched up its highest market share in more than a decade.
M&S said that it had seen a record number of customers over Christmas and its food sales were “strong”.
However, sales at its clothing, home and beauty business fell, with M&S blaming the decline on lower footfall on the High Street and lingering issues from last year’s cyber-attack.
M&S suffered a sales fall of almost 3% in its fashion, home and beauty products which it said was still suffering from stock and inventory issues following the cyber-attack.
Chief executive Stuart Machin said: “Food sales were strong and the business continues to outperform, hitting a new market share milestone in the period.
“Fashion, Home & Beauty is getting back on track as we work through the tail end of recovery,” he added.
Tesco boss Ken Murphy said he was “delighted” with the supermarket’s performance over Christmas amid “intense” competition.
He highlighted the performance of the Tesco Finest range, which saw sales growth of 13%.
The supermarket is now expecting to report annual operating profits at the upper end of the £2.9bn-£3.1bn range it predicted in October.
“Tesco has seen a consistently strong performance over the last couple of years really, where it’s really focused on price,” said Sofie Willmott, associate director at GlobalData Retail.
She said that by price-matching Aldi, and offering lower prices to its Clubcard holders, Tesco had “managed to retain its number one position at the top of the market”, despite heavy discounting on some of its products to compete with rivals.
“It also saw very good performance in its Finest range where shoppers are maybe not eating out as much or treating themselves,” she added.
Business
How fast kilos return after ending weight-loss drugs? – SUCH TV
When people stop taking the new generation of weight-loss drugs they pile back on the kilos four times faster than they would after ending diet and exercise regimes, new research found Thursday.
But this was mostly because they lost so much weight in the first place, according to the British researchers who conducted the largest and most up-to-date review of the subject.
A new generation of appetite-suppressing, injectable drugs called GLP-1 agonists have become immensely popular in the last few years, transforming the treatment for obesity and diabetes in many countries.
They have been found to help people lose between 15-20 percent of their body weight.
“This all appears to be a good news story,” said Susan Jebb, a public health nutrition scientist at Oxford university and co-author of a new BMJ study.
However, recent data has suggested that “around half of people discontinue these medications within a year,” she told a press conference.
This might be because of common side effects such as nausea or the price — these drugs can cost over $1,000 a month in the US.
So the researchers reviewed 37 studies looking at ceasing different weight-loss drugs, finding that participants regained around 0.4 kilograms a month.
Six of the clinical trials involved semaglutide — the ingredient used in Novo Nordisk’s brands Ozempic and Wegovy — and tirzepatide used for Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound.
While taking these two drugs, the trial participants lost an average of nearly 15 kilograms.
However, after stopping the medication, they regained 10 kilograms within a year, which was the longest follow-up period available for these relatively new drugs.
The researchers projected that the participants would return to their original weight in 18 months.
Measurements of heart health, including blood pressure and cholesterol levels, also returned to their original levels after 1.4 years.
People who were instead put on programmes that included diet and exercise — but not drugs — lost significantly less weight. However it took an average of four years for them to regain their lost kilos.
This meant that people taking the drugs regained their weight four times faster.
Starting point, not a cure
“Greater weight loss tends to result in faster weight regain,” lead study author Sam West of Oxford University explained.
But separate analysis showed that weight gain was “consistently faster after medication, regardless of the amount of weight lost in the first place,” he added.
This could be because people who have learned to eat more healthily and exercise more often continue to do so even as they regain weight.
Jebb emphasised that GLP-1 drugs “are a really valuable tool in obesity treatment — but obesity is a chronic relapsing condition.”
“One would expect that these treatments need to be continued for life, just in the same way as blood pressure medication,” Jebb said.
If this was the case, it would impact how national health systems judge whether these drugs are cost-effective, the researchers emphasised.
“This new data makes it clear they are a starting point, not a cure,” said Garron Dodd, a metabolic neuroscience researcher at the University of Melbourne not involved in the study.
“Sustainable treatment will likely require combination approaches, longer-term strategies, and therapies that reshape how the brain interprets energy balance, not just how much people eat,” he said.
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