Sports
Which NHL teams are most at risk of a shocking playoff miss?
Traditionally speaking, Thanksgiving in the U.S. and then the first few weeks of December tend to be seen as important markers in the NHL season — the moment at which early-season trends and struggles can no longer be completely waved away as “small-sample-size theater” but instead need to be taken at least a little bit seriously.
That truth goes especially for teams that went into the season with aspirations for a playoff berth but currently find themselves staring at longer odds to get in than they expected. And in a scrambled-up campaign such as this, the 2025-26 season offers plenty of teams who fit that description. So let’s zoom in on eight of them, examining what has gone wrong and what they might do about it.
Specifically, these are the teams who entered the season with relatively high playoff odds (per the Elo rating forecasts) but now find themselves most on the wrong side of the postseason bubble. Along the way, we’ll also identify the other team in the standings that is their “nemesis” from here on — the one whose playoff fate correlates most inversely with their own, meaning they’ll need to chase that team down or otherwise elbow it out of the way if they hope to overcome their slow start.
Note: All numbers are as of Friday, Dec. 12, 2025. Teams are sorted by highest preseason playoff chances.

Playoff chances: Preseason: 87% | Current: 53%
By now, it’s fair to say the two-time defending champs might actually be in a bit of trouble. Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov haven’t played a single game yet this season due to injuries — the former is skating again and might be back relatively soon, but the latter figures to be out until at least the playoffs — while holdover names like Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling, Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad and, in net, Sergei Bobrovsky are on pace for diminished production this season vs. last.
There’s still time for the Panthers to turn things around, and they have a tendency to improve as the schedule progresses in recent years anyway. But for now, it’s truly a toss-up whether we’ll even see them back in the playoffs again, much less a third straight Final, or if they’ll become the first defending champ to miss out since the 2015 Los Angeles Kings.
Nemesis: Toronto Maple Leafs. When Toronto misses the playoffs, Florida makes it 60% of the time; when the Leafs get in, Florida’s chances fall to 47%. Interestingly, the majority of both teams’ playoff odds come from chasing down one of the higher-ranked teams in the Atlantic, not sneaking in as a wild-card team: Only 21% of the time does either team make it in as a wild card.

Playoff chances: Preseason: 84% | Current: 56%
The President’s Trophy Curse keeps on giving to Winnipeg. After bowing out vs. Dallas in Round 2 of last year’s playoffs, the Jets started out this year fine enough, but haven’t been the same since reigning league MVP Connor Hellebuyck was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury in the middle of November. In his absence, Winnipeg had just three wins in 12 games, and they’re tied with the Devils for the league’s worst record specifically in December.
That situation has their playoff odds leaking down from 86% on Nov. 15 to just 56% now, sending them tumbling squarely into the West’s wild-card blender. Hellebuyck made his return this weekend, so these chances could stabilize some, but he’ll do nothing to fix an offense that’s fallen from third in scoring last year to 16th this season.
Nemesis: Utah Mammoth. Utah is in every team’s crosshairs out of the Central, if not the whole West, being the team most likely to finish exactly one spot out of the playoffs. But the Winnipeg-Utah battle might end up being the most consequential nemesis matchup in the entire league from this point onward.
In simulations where Utah misses the playoffs, Winnipeg makes it 62% of the time — but in those where Utah makes it, the Jets’ chances fall to 41%, one of the biggest gaps in one team’s odds associated with another team making or missing the playoffs.

Playoff chances: Preseason: 74% | Current: 51%
All of the preseason speculation in Toronto was around how the Leafs would fare in their first season after the departure of Mitch Marner broke up their longtime Core Four — which also included John Tavares, Auston Matthews and William Nylander. And a cursory look at the standings or playoff projections might cause you to think the Leafs are badly missing their former star playmaker. But although Toronto has slid into a coin-flip to make or miss the playoffs, they’re scoring more now than they did last season (3.30 goals per game vs. 3.26).
Instead, the Leafs’ problems have come on the goal-prevention side, where they’ve slipped from eighth to 19th, while allowing more shots per game with a worse save percentage. Whether that’s a fixable problem or not might depend on how soon the Leafs can get healthy with many defenders and goalies currently on the shelf — though backup goalie Dennis Hildeby has acquitted himself mostly well after being pressed into duty, and the team’s play has ticked up recently.
Nemesis: Florida Panthers. There’s a certain logic to the fact that the Panthers, who knocked the Leafs out of the playoffs in both 2023 and 2025, are Toronto’s biggest impediment to making the postseason this time around. With both teams next to each other in the wild-card mix, the Leafs make it only 45% of the time when the Panthers also get in, but that figure rises to 59% in the simulations where Florida fails to get in.
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Dennis Hildeby makes big-time save vs. Sharks
Dennis Hildeby robs Sharks with save

Playoff chances: Preseason: 66% | Current: 15%
St. Louis headed up our list of not-so-pleasant surprises about a month ago, and things haven’t really improved since. While the Blues did technically piece together two separate winning streaks in late November and early December — their first since early October — those lasted only a couple of games apiece before new losing streaks unfolded.
The game remains a huge struggle for this team at both ends of the ice, with St. Louis ranking dead last in goals per game (2.27) over the past month and next-to-last in goals per game differential (-1.13) as well. The Blues ran back basically the same group that powered last season’s remarkable late-season surge, but they’ve recaptured exactly none of that magic again. Recent injuries like the one that sent Jordan Kyrou to IR add to the misery.
Nemesis: Winnipeg Jets. The Blues face a massively uphill battle to make the top three in the Central — whose top two slots will almost certainly be occupied by the dominant Avalanche and Stars — which means duking it out for one of the wild-card spots in the West. And who happens to be tied with them in that race? None other than the Jets, last year’s President’s Trophy winners who have hit their own snag (as detailed above).
In simulations where Winnipeg makes it, St. Louis’ playoff chances fall to 10%; in those where the Jets miss out, the Blues make it 21% of the time.

Playoff chances: Preseason: 62% | Current: 42%
The Rangers are another team who probably can’t be too shocked about borderline playoff chances, given that they missed the field entirely last season. But it was just the fifth time the franchise had been on the outs since the 2005 lockout — and there was the hope that, with a new coach (Mike Sullivan replacing Peter Laviolette) and some distance from the drama of last season, the Broadway Blueshirts would reload and make a postseason return.
So far, that’s still a work in progress: While the uncharacteristically poor goaltending and defense of last season is improved, thanks mainly to Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick playing like their old selves again, the Rangers still rank just 29th in scoring with subdued production from the likes of Artemi Panarin, J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck and elite puck-moving defenseman Adam Fox on IR. This is the lowest the Rangers have ever ranked in goals per game in their history.
Nemesis: New Jersey Devils. Who else could it be here but the Rangers’ familiar rivals from the Battle of the Hudson? Neither team is in great shape — we’ll get to New Jersey soon enough — but both are right on the cusp of either the top three in the Metro or the final wild-card spot, the very definition of the playoff bubble. New York makes it only 33% of the time when New Jersey does as well, but 48% of the time when the Devils don’t.

Playoff chances: Preseason: 54% | Current: 36%
After making the playoffs last season for the first time since 2017, it wouldn’t have been unreasonable to think 2025 marked the start of a string of postseason berths for the Sens’ young core with Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson and Shane Pinto. A mediocre start to 2025-26, however, is threatening to turn that breakthrough into a mere one-off.
In addition to key injuries like the one that kept Tkachuk sidelined for more than a month after hand surgery, Ottawa has gotten the league’s worst goaltending from its tandem of Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen, with an abysmal .871 save percentage between the pair. The Sens were always going to be in for a playoff fight like last season, but they’ve got a lot of work to do to overcome their deficit this time around.
Nemesis: Detroit Red Wings. In a lot of ways, Detroit is trying to do what Ottawa did last season — ending their own long playoff drought behind a good young core of up-and-coming talent. Now the two Atlantic teams have to tangle over a playoff spot (whether in the division or as a wild card) that probably can only belong to one of them.
Ottawa’s playoff chances are 42% in the subset of simulations where Detroit can’t hang onto its postseason position, but 27% in the sims where the Red Wings hold on and make it.
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Tim Stutzle capitalizes on the power play
Tim Stutzle capitalizes on the power play

Playoff chances: Preseason: 48% | Current: 7%
Maybe it’s debatable exactly how “shocking” Vancouver missing the playoffs would be, since they didn’t actually make it last year, either — although that was truly surprising at the time, given the magnitude of their young talent (led by Quinn Hughes). Still, the models and oddsmakers thought there was a decent chance Vancouver would bounce back from a down 2024-25 by tapping back into their rising stars’ potential and maybe getting a better performance (and better health) from Thatcher Demko between the pipes.
But that has decidedly not been what happened, with the Canucks’ season spiraling since early November. Over the past month, no team has a worse win-loss record, and only two are worse on GPG differential. With their playoff hopes all but extinguished, attention in Vancouver has turned to the trade rumor mill — a prelude to Friday’s trade that sent Hughes to the Minnesota Wild — showing just how far they’ve fallen in a short time.
Nemesis: Utah Mammoth. It’s not a very high-leverage rivalry from Vancouver’s perspective: Utah making the playoffs versus missing drops the Canucks’ odds from 8.4% to 3.7%, because the Canucks are in bad shape either way (even more so after the Hughes swap).
But they do have the surprising potential to play spoiler for the Mammoth: Utah’s playoff odds in those few simulations where Vancouver does sneak in are about half what they are in the ones where the Canucks miss out (32.2% vs. 16.5%).

Playoff chances: Preseason: 45% | Current: 40%
New Jersey gets an honorary spot here because the betting markets were higher on them going into the season than Elo was — mainly because it didn’t know how much the Devils’ late slide was due to Jack Hughes‘ season-ending shoulder surgery in early March.
The hope was that a healthy Hughes would re-elevate an offense that slipped to 20th in goals per game by the end of last season. Of course, the irony is that Hughes would get off to a great start this season (10 goals and 20 points in 17 games) before hurting himself again — this time a “freak” finger injury that has kept him out since Nov. 12, over which time the Devils are bottom-six in goal differential and have seen their playoff odds fall from 74% to 40%.
Hughes won’t be back until January at the earliest, and New Jersey has to go into battle with an offense and defense that both rank 20th or worse until then.
Nemesis: New York Rangers. By definition, these nemeses come in pairs — so the Devils’ gains are the Rangers’ losses and vice versa.
In this case, New Jersey makes the playoffs 46% of the time when New York misses out, versus 31% when the Blueshirts get in. And for the Devils, roughly half of their 40% playoff chances come from getting in as a top-three squad from the Metro (like they did last season), with the other half coming from snagging a wild card. It’s nice to have options!
Sports
Patriots’ Super Bowl appearance was no fluke, team legends say: ‘They’re for real’
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The New England Patriots were supposed to be “mid,” as Rob Gronkowski told Fox News Digital, but instead, they looked like the Pats of yesteryear.
New England stunned the football world with a 14-3 record and going all the way to the Super Bowl, led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye.
Sure, New England perhaps benefited from an easy schedule in the regular season, and in the playoffs, they faced Jarrett Stidham instead of Bo Nix. The Super Bowl was not pretty, as they took a beating from the Seattle Seahawks.
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New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman raises his hands in celebration with tight end Rob Gronkowski after throwing a touchdown pass to wide receiver Danny Amendola during the third quarter of the NFL divisional playoff football game at Gillette Stadium on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2015. (Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images)
But Gronkowski and one of his former teammates do not believe the 2025 Pats were any sort of fluke.
“What the New England Patriots did this season was incredible. And they’re just going to keep on building on that from here on and going into next year, I’m sure they’re going to be making the playoffs on a consistent basis now,” Gronk told Fox News Digital. “That’s the expectation. They got the quarterback, they got the coach, they got the ownership, they got the foundation now, and you’re going to see them competing at a high level every single year now, which is great for Patriot fans.”

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) warms up prior to the AFC Championship NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
The Patriots have simply built the next generation of success, and Gronkowski sees the same in Infiniti and their newly-released QX65. Gronk and Julian Edelman were on hand at Grand Central Terminal in New York for the unveiling.
KYLIE KELCE REVEALS HER ‘DOS AND DON’TS’ OF TALKING TO POSTPARTUM WOMEN: ‘OH, I’M SO SERIOUS’
“I’ve always been about showing up at big moments and putting in the work behind the scenes, and that’s what stood out to me with the Infiniti. They’re really being intentional about how they move forward and what they’re building next. That’s how you got to be as a football player, as an athlete, you got to be very intentional and in order to stay at the top of your game and be able to compete at a top level. And that’s what Infiniti is doing.”
“I was fortunate enough in my career to play in a lot of big moments, and that’s exactly what you see with the Infiniti,” Edelman added. “How they are so detailed and have a purpose for everything that they do. When you look at the design of the car, the back, the interior’s spacious, very detailed. I mean, it’s just something that’s been so cool. It’s been a fun experience.”
Edelman, too, is “very confident” that the new-look Pats are here to stay.
“Anytime you got a head coach, a quarterback, an owner, and a GM working together and unison, it seems like every free agent they signed had a big moment, big role on the team. There was a lot of great things that happened.”
Edelman did warn Patriots fans to temper expectations just a bit and not expect another 14-win season. However, he does expect a more sound product on the field.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye celebrates with the AFC championship trophy after the AFC championship game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots in Denver, Colorado, on Jan. 25, 2026. (AP Photo/John Locher)
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“it’s time on task. You know, time on task with the quarterback. Get him ready with the offensive line, getting that offensive line kind of fixed up and get them working together more. I mean, they’re a young group. So I’m really excited for the Patriots this year,” he said.
“I think they’re for real. They may go out and not have as many wins, but I think they’re going to be a better football team this year.”
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Alex Vesia, Dodgers pitcher who lost infant daughter, gets standing ovation after scoreless return to mound
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Perhaps for the first time in 2026, Alex Vesia felt some normalcy on Friday night.
The Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher made his return to the pitcher’s mound in his first Major League outing since his infant daughter died just five days after she was born.
Before the World Series, the left-hander left the team to deal with a “deeply personal matter” and did not pitch in the Fall Classic.
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Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher Alex Vesia celebrates after the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday, March 27, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Days after the Dodgers won the World Series, he and his wife announced their infant daughter had died.
Vesia returned to the team during spring training and then entered the Dodgers’ game against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the seventh inning of a 4-4 tie.
It was quite the spot for Vesia to return, but given his 2.36 ERA over the last two seasons, it was no sweat. He left a runner stranded on second base and kept the D-Backs scoreless en route to the team’s 5-4 win over their division rival.
Vesia let out a yell and pointed toward the Dodgers’ family section while getting a standing ovation from the crowd.
Vesia was wearing a customized pink glove with his daughter’s name, Sterling Sol, stitched on it, along with her birthday and his wife’s first initial, K for Kayla, embroidered on the glove’s ring finger.

Alex Vesia of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the sixth inning at Dodger Stadium on March 27, 2026, in Los Angeles, California. (Luke Hales/Getty Images)
DODGERS PITCHER’S WIFE LIVES THROUGH ‘BITTER SWEET’ OPENING DAY MONTHS AFTER INFANT DAUGHTER’S DEATH
“What I would give to have my Sterling girl here, carrying her in my heart always,” Kayla said in an Instagram post earlier this week to celebrate a “bitter-sweet” opening day.
Sterling passed between Game 2 and Game 3 when the series was tied at one game apiece. During the Fall Classic, relievers from the Toronto Blue Jays wrote Vesia’s jersey number, 51, on their hats.
In his first news conference of the year in spring training, Vesia called his wife “the strongest person that I know” and “a support system for me every bit as much as I am for her.”
“Life can change in an instant. For us, 10 minutes is all it took,” Vesia said in February. “Sterling Sol was the most beautiful girl in the world. We got to hold her, change her diaper, read to her and love her. Our time together was far too short. Kay and I will keep those precious moments and memories to ourselves.
“Stepping away from the team, the brothers that I go to war with every day, was difficult, but it was also an easy decision because my family needed me. We still watched every pitch of the World Series, and for us in so many ways, that was a light in our darkness.

Alex Vesia of the Los Angeles Dodgers thanks the crowd during the 2025 Back-to-Back World Champions Ring Ceremony prior to the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Friday, March 27, 2026, in Los Angeles, California. (Jessie Alcheh/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
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“I was not prepared to not bring my baby girl home, but we’re carrying her with us every day. It’s been hard, but we’re doing OK.”
The back-to-back reigning World Series champions are 2-0 to start the MLB season.
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Sports
Men’s March Madness 2026: Ranking the remaining eight teams
Five months into the 2025-26 season, only eight teams remain. Each team has a chance to go to Indianapolis to play in the Final Four, provided it wins one more game.
At the start of the campaign, many would have believed all of these programs had a chance to play in the penultimate weekend of the season — with the exception of 9-seed Iowa. But it might have been difficult to believe the way they all got here.
Duke played through major injuries to advance to the Elite Eight. Arizona is there without a singular star, but a team full of selfless standouts who can all lead the Wildcats in scoring on any night. Michigan has three players who are 6-foot-9 or taller in the starting rotation — a contrast to the small-ball era so many within the game have touted. Illinois is led by a freshman who was overlooked on the recruiting circuit and several European talents.
Then, there are those Hawkeyes — a team that was 3-7 in its last 10 games entering the NCAA tournament but has reached the Elite Eight for the first time in 39 years.
The truth is, however, that there’s a lot of chalk among the last eight teams. A ton of resilience, too. Let’s rank the squads in the Elite Eight.
All times Eastern
How the regional finals were set


1. Arizona Wildcats
Original seed: No. 1 (West)
Tournament results: Def. No. 16 Long Island 92-58 (first round); def. No. 9 Utah State 78-66 (round of 32); def. No. 4 Arkansas 109-88 (Sweet 16)
Arizona has been chasing greatness all season. The Wildcats not only handed John Calipari the worst NCAA tournament loss of his career in Thursday’s lopsided Sweet 16 win over Arkansas, but it was also the first time a team (Arizona) had 60 paint points and 30 free throws in a single NCAA tournament game since 2000, per ESPN Research. But that dominant effort against the SEC tournament champion is only new if you haven’t been watching college basketball. The Wildcats shot 50% from inside the arc in their season-opening win over Florida. They beat Alabama — one of the best offensive teams in America — by 21 points in December, with the Tide recording just 99 points per 100 possessions. There was a 23-point victory over Kansas in February and a 16-point triumph over Iowa State days later. The Wildcats have made a lot of statements to support the case that they’re the team to beat, the team that could be the last one standing because of its ability to play a complete game: Arizona is fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency. It’s also difficult for opponents to know who to target because of their depth. Veteran Jaden Bradley? Freshman star Brayden Burries? Freshman star Koa Peat — who, after a strong start to the season, faced a rough patch — is averaging 16.6 points through three NCAA tournament games.
Up next: vs. Purdue (Saturday, 8:49 p.m., TBS/truTV)

2. Michigan Wolverines
Original seed: No. 1 (Midwest)
Tournament results: Def. No. 16 Howard 101-80 (first round); def. No. 9 Saint Louis 95-72 (round of 32); def. No. 4 Alabama 90-77 (Sweet 16)
Three years ago, Dusty May didn’t want to leave Florida Atlantic because life was good in Boca Raton. He lived a few miles from campus and rode his bike to work every day. But the opportunity to lead a Big Ten powerhouse was too much to pass up, and he accepted the Michigan job in 2024. Even then, he didn’t leave it all behind. There’s a tie between the 2022-23 Owls, who made a run to the Final Four, and this year’s Wolverines, who are a win away from the school’s first run to the Final Four since 2018: interior defense. May’s FAU squad held opponents to a 46.6% clip in the paint, one of the top marks in America that season, per Synergy Sports. His Michigan team this season is clocking in at 48.9% in that metric. In Friday’s Sweet 16 win, it held Alabama — which entered the game ranked top three in offensive efficiency — to just 31 shots, 23 of which were 3-pointers. That’s a by-product of May’s suffocating interior defense, a staple of his best teams. And it’s proof the Wolverines aren’t just tough around the rim on defense; they make opponents think twice about trying to score in the post in the first place.
Up next: vs. Tennessee (Sunday, 2:15 p.m., CBS)

3. Illinois Fighting Illini
Original seed: No. 3 (South)
Tournament results: Def. No. 14 Penn 105-70 (first round); def. No. 11 VCU 76-55 (round of 32); def. No. 2 Houston 65-55 (Sweet 16)
Illinois proved with Thursday’s Sweet 16 win against Houston that it can reach a level on offense even the best defenses in America can’t stop. A 17-0 run early in the second half created separation between the two teams, with the Cougars spending the rest of the game trying to close the gap. David Mirkovic and Keaton Wagler became the first freshman teammates to record double-doubles in the NCAA tournament since freshmen became eligible for to play in the postseason in the 1972-73 season, per ESPN Research. But while Illinois’ offensive strength has been its most appealing quality, Brad Underwood’s team is a true national title contender because of its ability to stall opposing teams. Since the start of the Big Ten tournament, the Illini have been a top-25 defensive team nationally, per BartTorvik. They’re also eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency since the start of the NCAA tournament. Those are important metrics to consider. Eight of the past 10 national champions were ranked top 11 in both categories. If balance is the ticket to a title, Illinois is in a good spot.
Up next: vs. Iowa (Saturday, 6:09 p.m., TBS/truTV)

4. Duke Blue Devils
Original seed: No. 1 overall (East)
Tournament results: Def. No. 16 Siena 71-65 (first round); def. No. 9 TCU 81-58 (round of 32); def. No. 5 St. John’s 80-75 (Sweet 16)
The close call against St. John’s wasn’t anything the Blue Devils hadn’t experienced: Remember the clutch effort late in a one-point win over Florida? Being tied with Michigan State near the two-minute mark not long after that? They had two tougher than expected games against Florida State in the regular season and in the ACC tournament. There was the battle with Michigan in Washington, D.C, too. Free throws sealed a win over Virginia in the ACC tournament title game. A first-round tussle with 16-seed Siena and a slow start against TCU in the second. The one constant through all of these tough games has been Cameron Boozer. He dominated at the high school, AAU and now the collegiate level. He provides his team with confidence in the most desperate situations and has the Blue Devils equipped to get through tough times — even if it’s someone else stepping up. Against the St. John’s in Friday’s Sweet 16 game, Caleb Foster somehow thrived (11 points on 5-for-7 shooting after halftime), despite having suffered a broken foot 20 days ago. Isaiah Evans (25 points) was brilliant. Maliq Brown (four blocks) did more to disrupt this game defensively than he’ll get credit for. And Cameron Boozer (22 points, 10 rebounds, three assists) was just Cameron Boozer. Nobody gets afraid on this team when adversity hits.
Up next: vs. UConn (Sunday, 5:05 p.m., CBS)

5. Purdue Boilermakers
Original seed: No. 2 (West)
Tournament results: Def. No. 15 Queens University 104-71 (first round); def. No. 7 Miami 79-69 (round of 32); def. No. 11 Texas 79-77 (Sweet 16)
Few coaches in college basketball have suffered the amount of basketball heartbreak as Matt Painter. In 2009-10, star Robbie Hummel suffered a season-ending injury late in the season that cost the Boilermakers a chance to compete for a national title. In 2019, former Purdue star Carsen Edwards scored 42 points and still couldn’t beat eventual champion Virginia in overtime. Painter once again reached the national title game in 2024 with Wooden Award winner Zach Edey — but ran into the bulldozer known as UConn on its way to its second straight national title. None of those Purdue squads, however, were as hot as this current crew. During the Boilermakers’ seven-game winning streak, Braden Smith is averaging 9.5 assists and Trey Kaufman-Renn looks like an All-American again while averaging 17.8 points. The group is second in adjusted offensive efficiency (60% from inside the arc, 38% from the 3-point line) during this stretch. And now Painter will have another shot at getting over the hump.
Up next: vs. Arizona (Saturday, 8:49 p.m., TBS/truTV)

6. UConn Huskies
Original seed: No. 2 (East)
Tournament results: Def. No. 15 Furman 82-71 (first round); def. No. 7 UCLA 73-57 (round of 32); def. No. 3 Michigan State 67-63 (Sweet 16)
Men’s college basketball has had a multitude of legendary coaches over the 60-plus years since John Wooden led UCLA in the 1960s and ’70s. Mike Krzyzewski won five national titles. Roy Williams retired with three. Rick Pitino has two rings with two different teams. Bill Self and Billy Donovan have a pair of championships. Hurley has a real chance to win his third national championship in four years, which would be an unprecedented feat in the modern history of the sport and a greater challenge than anything Wooden ever faced during his time. Because Hurley’s chasing this third title with a third different roster. The team that held off Michigan State on Friday night in the Sweet 16 does not resemble the teams he had in 2023 or 2024. Alex Karaban is the only holdover from those back-to-back title teams. There’s still a significant similarity between all three groups: They were all better when they played a free-flowing style, executed great defense and pushed the pace. It’s how the 2026 Huskies achieved an early double-digit lead over the Spartans and overcame a sloppy stretch in the second half. They also proved that, even with their recent lack of efficiency (they entered Friday ranked 74th in adjusted offensive efficiency since March 1), they can outlast and attack any opponent to advance.
Up next: vs. Duke (Sunday, 5:05 p.m., CBS)

7. Tennessee Volunteers
Original seed: No. 6 (Midwest)
Tournament results: Def. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) 78-56 (first round); def. No. 3 Virginia 79-72 (round of 32); def. No. 2 Iowa State 76-62 (Sweet 16)
It’s no secret that Texas decided Rick Barnes hadn’t kept up with the times and that the game had left him behind when the school fired him in 2015. His dismissal came after a string of first-weekend exits and a seven-year gap between his Elite Eight appearances. But when he accepted the Tennessee job that same year, Barnes — who has been a head coach since 1987 — didn’t change his philosophy. He has always believed smart shots, suffocating defense at every spot on the floor and a bruising approach to rebounding were the keys to victory and long-term success. He has coupled that attitude with a recognition that playmakers win games at the highest level. He found Dalton Knecht and Chaz Lanier in the transfer portal in back-to-back years. This year, his Vols are the top offensive rebounding team in America. Nate Ament is a projected lottery pick. Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie has been Barnes’ most reliable addition. The formula has resulted in Tennessee’s third consecutive Elite Eight appearance.
Up next: vs. Michigan (Sunday, 2:15 p.m., CBS)

8. Iowa Hawkeyes
Original seed: No. 9 (South)
Tournament results: Def. No. 8 Clemson 67-61 (first round); def. No. 1 Florida 73-72 (round of 32); def. No. 4 Nebraska 77-71 (Sweet 16)
The 3-point line was introduced in Division I men’s basketball in the 1986-87 season by the NCAA’s rules committee. It was a wild idea at the time, from Ed Steitz, a member of the committee, whose research suggested it could revolutionize the game. That season, the Hawkeyes attempted 382 3-pointers — and made 39% of them. They went 5 for 11 from beyond the arc in their 93-91 Sweet 16 victory against Oklahoma that season. They’re now back in the Elite Eight for the first time in 39 years because they rediscovered the power of the 3. Ben McCollum’s group has already taken 818 shots from beyond the arc this season. Since March 11, nearly 50% of its field goal attempts have been 3s. It has made 37.4%, a top-40 mark nationally. Yes, the Sweet 16 win over Nebraska on Thursday was the result of the Hawkeyes’ resilience and second-half defense. But really, the only way they stayed close in the game was because of those 3s (13-for-30, 43%) — the same way the last Iowa team won this round.
Up next: vs. Illinois (Saturday, 6:09 p.m., TBS/truTV)
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