Business
Why has inflation fallen and what does it mean for me?
UK inflation fell to an eight-month low in November as Black Friday sales and a dip in food prices helped ease the cost of living.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.2% in November, from 3.6% in October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
Here, the Press Association looks at what is behind the drop and what it means for households and the economy.
– What is inflation?
Inflation is the term used to describe the rising price of goods and services.
The inflation rate refers to how quickly prices are going up.
November’s inflation rate of 3.2% means if an item cost £100 a year ago, it would now cost £103.20.
It is below the 3.6% rate recorded in October, meaning that prices are rising at a slower rate than they were before.
– What made inflation go down?
The ONS said the biggest factor driving inflation down last month was lower food prices.
Items such as bread, cereals and cakes, butter, cheese and pasta got cheaper between October and November, while alcoholic drinks including beer and wine also decreased.
However, food prices are still higher than they were last year, with the annual inflation rate coming in at 4.2% in November – albeit lower than the 4.9% October rate.
The price of some food and drinks has spiked over the past year, with annual rises including beef up 27.7%, chocolate rising by 17.3% and coffee up 14.5%.
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance for Hargreaves Lansdown, said this means that people’s “experiences at the supermarket will still depend enormously on what you buy”.
– Did Black Friday make a difference?
The ONS said its data pointed to there being bigger Black Friday sales this year than in 2024, which helped lower the price of clothes and shoes.
Black Friday has become a key time for retailers to attract shoppers with discounts that last well beyond the specific November shopping date.
The ONS said women’s clothing fell the most, with falls for items such as trousers and skirts.
Ms Coles said that sluggish sales through the year may have “persuaded retailers that they have to work harder to get people through the doors – so discounts were heavier”.
– Will inflation keep falling?
While November’s inflation rate fell sharply, some economists have cautioned that it is likely to be a one-off, with factors such as Black Friday sales potentially skewing the data.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that prices fell by more than expected for items including clothes, furniture and games, toys and hobbies, warning that this will “likely reverse” in the coming months.
James Smith, an economist for ING, said he was expecting inflation to edge higher in December, particularly due to a seasonal spike in air fares.
However, he said the “latest drop in inflation fits into a broader body of evidence suggesting that price pressures are cooling”, adding: “We expect headline inflation to fall pretty close to 2% by May.”
– What does it mean for interest rates?
Most economists think that the latest set of inflation data will be enough to convince policymakers to cut interest rates when they next meet on Thursday.
The Bank of England is widely expected to reduce rates to 3.75% from 4%.
Charlotte Kennedy, chartered financial planner for Rathbones, said the inflation reading “paves the way for a possible pre-Christmas rate cut, particularly given the need to stimulate the economy and address the ongoing malaise in employment and job opportunities”.
“Measures announced at the Budget – such as freezing rail fares until 2027, cutting fuel duty, and reducing energy bill costs – are expected to shave around 0.5 percentage points off headline inflation by the middle of next year,” she said.
She added that this raises the prospect of the Bank of England reaching its 2% target rate for CPI inflation “in the not-too-distant future”.
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E-cheques coming soon? RBI unveils Payments Vision 2028, plans wider oversight of digital players – The Times of India
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