Sports
How much is each position in soccer worth? A deep dive into the Premier League
Are attackers the most valuable players in soccer? Or do we just think they’re the most valuable players because we’re better able to measure everything they do? The answer is obvious and impossible — at the same time.
The establishment of expected goals, or xG, showed, among other things, that the best goal-scorers score lots of goals mostly because they take lots of high-value shots. Finishing skill matters, but only at the margins. The ability to find space or create space near the goal, over and over again, is the unifying skill among all the best scorers on the planet.
From there, we can look at the players who created those expected goals with their passes, and we get a pretty good sense of who the best creators are. But once you take a step back from the pass that led to the goal, you’ll quickly find yourself subscribing to goals-only nihilism.
All efforts to quantify the things that happen farther away from the goal have led to similar conclusions: The stuff that happens between the boxes doesn’t have much of an effect on whether or not a goal is scored.
An elegant turn through pressure by a midfielder in his own half might take way more skill than a center-forward barreling over a defender to get his head on a cross, but the latter is what directly affects the score line. And goals win games, so congrats on your press-resistant manipulation of the cover shadow, but our big man just walloped one in with his beefy forehead and we’ve got the three points now.
This feels wrong and right, somehow. We know midfielders matter because we’ve seen so many teams change their midfields and totally change the way they play. But we also know a midfielder can’t single-handedly win games in the same way an on-fire attacker can.
With the proliferation of tracking and movement data, there are all kinds of PhD-level approaches that can be applied to these questions of player value: Particle physics, biomechanics, rocket science all can reveal new knowledge of how the sport works.
And I hope it does, but I am not a particle physicist, a biomechanist nor a rocket scientist. So, for today, I want to focus on a much more specific and universal definition of value: money. How much do Premier League teams pay the players at different positions, and what does that tell us about how the richest league in the world values each one?
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The values of the average Premier League players
To start, let’s look at the average Premier League salary per position.
For this, we’re using the data from the site FBref. It’s a combination of confirmed and estimated data, but it’s broadly accurate and makes it more useful when looking at larger aggregate numbers. I made a somewhat arbitrary decision to cut off the list at players who, per FBref, make $500,000 per year. And that gives us 557 players: 145 forwards, 150 midfielders, 199 defenders and 63 goalkeepers.
We, of course, could get more granular than those designations, but the more you cut it down, the smaller the sample gets for each position. And while there’s even overlap between defenders and midfielders and forwards, the distinctions get even murkier once we start talking about wingbacks and fullbacks and box-to-box midfielders. For the actual designation for any given player, we’re going with whatever FBref lists as his primary position.
So, here’s what the average Premier League player at each of the four positions makes:
• Forward: $5.27 million/year
• Midfielder: $5.31 million/year
• Defender: $4.38 million/year
• Goalkeeper: $3.29 million/year
Based only on that, we’d say that forwards and midfielders are the premium positions in the Premier League, then there’s a gap down to defenders, and another gap down to goalkeepers.
That makes some intuitive sense, perhaps: Forwards and midfielders aren’t that different from each other, and given my arbitrary cutoff point, I think the gap between the two is mostly meaningless. should also note that attacking midfielders such as Phil Foden, Martin Odegaard and Florian Wirtz all get classified under the midfield designation here, which helps boost the value of the position group. So, the further you move from goal, the less players cost.
Still, it’s surprising that midfielders match, let alone, exceed attackers here — even with those caveats. My theory is that midfielders tend to be more interchangeable than attackers. So, there’s a bigger pool of relied-upon midfielders whom teams value, and that boosts the overall average of the position.
On top of that, teams are less willing to experiment with less experienced and therefore lower-paid midfielders in the same way they might with attackers. A mistake made by a young attacker is nowhere near as penalizing as a mistake made by a young midfielder, and so might result in a higher salary floor for midfielders than it does for attackers.
The values of the average Premier League starter
Continuing with that idea: Defenders are rarely getting subbed out in a match, and in an ideal world, most teams would use only one goalkeeper for an entire season. And so, the players beyond the starter level at those positions tend to make significantly less money than the starters, and it pulls down the averages.
So, what if we looked at starters only?
To define “starter,” I’m not going to look at who is actually starting matches but rather which players are being paid like starters. The 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 is the most popular formation in the Premier League, and there are 20 teams, so we can just multiply those numbers and come up with what quantity of players at each position are being paid as starters.
It obviously doesn’t work exactly like this in the unequal financial landscape of the Premier League, but I’m defining a starter as the 20 highest-paid goalkeepers, the 80 highest-paid defenders, the 60 highest-paid midfielders and the 60 highest-paid attackers.
The results:
• Forwards: $9.53 million/year
• Midfielders: $9.30 million/year
• Defenders: $7.48 million/year
• Goalkeeper: $6.55 million/year
Put another way, here’s the premium you have to pay to go from average player to starter at each position:
• Forward: 80.6%
• Midfielder: 75.1%
• Defender: 70.9%
• Goalkeeper: 99.3%
This, again, makes sense. Since only one goalkeeper can play at a time and one goalkeeper tends to keep playing unless he makes a bunch of mistakes or gets hurt, the starters make way more money than the average player at the position.
Starting forwards make a lot more than the average forward, which starts to confirm some of the ideas we talked about at the start. There’s less of a divide between midfield starters and average midfielders because more midfielders tend to play. And there’s less of a divide between defenders because, well, there’s simply fewer defenders who aren’t starters because more defenders start.
On top of that, I think there’s a bit of a risk premium in both of these areas, too: A backup goalkeeper or forward might be a lower-paid prospect, but teams tend to want players they think are more reliable in midfield and defense.
If we take the 4-3-3 as the base, here’s what the average “starting unit” in the Premier League earns:
• Goalkeeper: $6.55 million
• Defense: $29.9 million
• Midfield: $27.9 million
• Attack: $28.6 million
It’s interesting, I think, that there’s not really a huge gap in how teams are valuing each unit as a whole. And if we add goalkeepers to the defense, then we could even say that teams are spending the most money on “goal suppression”: $36.5 million.
Obviously many defenders, especially fullbacks, contribute to attacking play, too. But I actually think a sharper trend is coming into place.
If we accept that a good chunk of the midfield spending is coming from attacking midfielders whose value mainly comes from what they contribute near the goal, then we can boost up that “attack” value and lessen the midfield value. That would then mean teams are aligned with the analytical idea that everything happening near the goals, whether defending their own or attacking the other, is what’s most valuable.
The value of Premier League stars
We know that the cost of a point increases the higher you go in the table. In other words, it’s a lot easier to go from 44 points to 45 points than it is to go from 89 points to 90 points. But does that mean the best teams in the league are spending their money in the same way as everyone else — just devoting higher sums to the same positional distributions?
Here, I’m defining a star player as a starter on a top-four team in the league. So, with the framework from the starter section, that would give us the four highest-paid goalkeepers, 16 defenders, 12 midfielders and 12 forwards. Here’s how they average out:
• Forwards: $18.7 million
• Midfielders: $15.7 million
• Defenders: $13.5 million
• Goalkeepers: $11.6 million
And if we look at the premium you have to pay to go from “starter” to “star,” here’s what it looks like at each position:
• Forward: 96.1%
• Midfielder: 69.2%
• Defender: 80.8%
• Goalkeeper: 76.3%
To build a star-filled starting lineup, you’d be spending $11.6 million on your goalkeeper, $54 million on your defense, $47.1 million on your midfield and $56 million on your attack.
The Premier League is telling us a bunch of different things with where the teams are putting their money. The league places a high value on competence in the midfield, but there’s also a ceiling on the value a midfielder can provide, and that ceiling gets lower and lower the better the team gets. I hadn’t even thought of this before, but the way money is allocated in the Premier League suggests midfielders are actually more valuable to bad teams than they are to good teams. And I think I agree.
As a friend put it to me, adding a good midfielder to a bad team is like putting a new engine in your broken-down 1985 Nissan Sentra: All of a sudden it can get you from point A to point B. But the best teams in the leagues already have their engines; they need to add the higher-end details.
With goalkeepers and defenders, the higher up you go on the food chain, the more valuable they become. Perhaps that’s because defensive competence comes from teamwide organization lower down the table, but as you go higher, teams have to score more goals, so their defenses are frequently left unorganized and therefore more reliant on the individual talent of goalkeepers and defenders who can no longer be protected by the system around them.
As for attackers, they earn expensive salaries everywhere, and as you go higher up the competitive ladder, their relative cost actually increases. To go from an average Premier League starter in attack to a star attacker, it’s going to cost you twice as much as what you were already paying.
We started off by wondering what the comparative difference was between midfielders and attackers, and the richest teams in the league have given us one answer: Star attackers are more valuable, by about 20%.
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The Athletics reportedly gave one of their young stars a very nice Christmas present.
The Athletics and left fielder Tyler Soderstrom agreed to a seven-year, $86 million contract on Thursday, according to multiple reports.
The contract is the largest the team has ever given out. The deal also includes an eighth-year club option and has escalators that bring the maximum value of the contract to $131 million.
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Athletics left fielder Tyler Soderstrom (21) reacts after hitting a home run against the Houston Astros in the seventh inning at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, California, on Sept. 24, 2025. (Cary Edmondson/Imagn Images)
Soderstrom, 24, broke out in 2025. He debuted in 2023 as a catcher and first baseman, and struggled to hit in his first taste of Major League Baseball, hitting .160 with just three home runs and a .472 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) in 45 games.
The Turlock, Calif., native came back up to the big leagues in 2024 and was much better. In 61 games, Soderstrom had a .233 batting average with nine home runs, 26 RBI and a .743 OPS while still primarily playing first base.
EX-MLB STAR TAKES ISSUE WITH DISNEY CRUISE LINE OVER MAN DRESSED AS A WOMAN
Athletics left fielder Tyler Soderstrom (21) reacts after being caught stealing second during the third inning against the Houston Astros at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, California, on Sept. 23, 2025. (Sergio Estrada/Imagn Images)
In 2025, Soderstrom played primarily left field and thrived at the plate. He started 145 of the 158 games he played this year — 100 of those starts in left field — his first full major league season.
In those 158 games, he batted .276 with 25 home runs and 93 RBI with an OPS of .820, cementing himself as a key piece of the Athletics’ young core.
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Athletics left fielder Tyler Soderstrom (21) scores a run during the fifth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, California, on Sept. 26, 2025. (Sergio Estrada/Imagn Images)
Soderstrom was on track to become eligible for arbitration after the 2026 season and for free agency after the 2029 season. Instead, he joins outfielder/designated hitter Brent Rooker (five-year, $60 million contract) and outfielder Lawrence Butler (seven-year, $65.5 million contract) as another part of the young, dynamic lineup that is locked in long term.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Whenever Washington got a stop on third down Thursday, it just faltered on fourth. That led to the Cowboys controlling the clock all game.
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The Week 17 NFL schedule for the 2025 season continues with some exciting matchups after an eventful Christmas Day slate of games.
On Saturday, the Texans and Chargers will face off in a rematch of last year’s wild-card game. On Sunday, the Seahawks will battle the Panthers, and the Buccaneers will head down to Miami for an intrastate matchup. Then two teams in the mix for the NFC’s No. 1 seed — the Bears and 49ers — will face each other on “Sunday Night Football.”
We have you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.
Let’s get into the full Week 17 slate, which culminates with the “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Rams and Falcons on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
HOU-LAC | BAL-GB | JAX-IND
SEA-CAR | ARI-CIN | TB-MIA
PIT-CLE | NE-NYJ | NO-TEN
NYG-LV | PHI-BUF | CHI-SF | LAR-ATL
Thursday: DAL-WSH, DET-MIN, DEN-KC
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NFL Network | LAC -2.5 (39.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Texans: The last time Houston played the Chargers, it sacked and intercepted QB Justin Herbert four times in the wild-card playoff game. The 2025 Texans’ defense is even better than last year’s version, so we’ll see how this plays out. Coach DeMeco Ryans called Herbert “one of the toughest quarterbacks in our league.” We’ll see how tough he can be when the NFL’s No. 1 defense rolls into L.A. — DJ Bien-Aime
What we’re hearing on the Chargers: Herbert is coming off perhaps his best game of the season in a win over the Cowboys, which he’ll look to replicate against Houston. “As far as quarterback performances go, that was a Picasso,” Harbaugh said of Herbert’s three-TD, 300-yard passing game against Dallas. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Texans and Chargers rank first and third in the league, respectively, in total defense this season (Houston: 272.3 yards per game; L.A.: 283.1 ypg). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will both have pass rush win rates over 35%. That’s a big number, as no one hit 35% in Week 16, let alone a pair of teammates. But Houston’s pass rushers against the Chargers’ tackles is a heck of a mismatch. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Texans can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Colts loss. There’s also a bizarre scenario where they get in if the Chiefs, Ravens, Bucs, Bills, Rams and 49ers win in Week 17. The Chargers clinched a playoff spot after the Colts’ loss to the 49ers on Monday night. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Chargers might lean heavily on RB Omarion Hampton after seeing how much success Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders had against Houston last week. Since returning from injury in Week 14, Hampton has had at least 15 touches and scored at least 14 fantasy points in two of three games. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 16-8 against the spread as favorites under Harbaugh (9-3 ATS as home favorites with three straight covers). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chargers 30, Texans 27
Moody’s pick: Texans 21, Chargers 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Chargers 20
FPI prediction: LAC, 51.7% (by an average of 0.8 points)
Matchup must-read: Can Chargers keep up offensive momentum vs. Texans?
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Peacock | GB -2.5 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: RB Derrick Henry needs 64 rushing yards to pass Tony Dorsett and crack the top 10 on the NFL’s all-time rushing list. The Ravens, who need a win to avoid being eliminated from playoff contention, are 17-8 (.680) when Henry rushes for 65 or more yards. The Packers are the league’s 10th-best run defense, allowing 103.8 yards per game. In two games at Lambeau Field, Henry has totaled 185 rushing yards. — Jamison Hensley
What we’re hearing on the Packers: With QBs Jordan Love (concussion) and Malik Willis (shoulder) both suffering injuries last week against the Bears, it’s worth wondering who the emergency quarterback would have been — or might be if necessary Saturday. The team’s only other quarterback (Clayton Tune) is on the practice squad and would not have been eligible to play at Chicago. Perhaps the Packers will activate Tune, but coach Matt LaFleur revealed this week that their top two emergency options are RB Josh Jacobs and WR Jayden Reed. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Henry logged his 40th career game with at least 100 rushing yards and a rushing TD against the Patriots, the sixth most in NFL history. With another such game, Henry would tie Jim Brown for No. 5. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell will rip off a 40-plus-yard run. Assuming the Ravens have either a banged-up Lamar Jackson (back) or a backup at QB, the team might need to rely on the ground game more than usual. While Henry is always a threat to rumble for extra yards, Mitchell has the ability to be the lightning to the veteran’s thunder and can break a big one at any moment. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Packers can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Lions loss Thursday. The Ravens would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a Steelers win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:55
Why Mad Dog is giving Lamar a pass this season
Chris “Mad Dog” Russo and Jeff Saturday debate whether Lamar Jackson should be given a pass if the Ravens miss the playoffs.
Fantasy nugget: Henry has piled up at least 90 rushing yards in three consecutive games. It would be wise for the Baltimore to lean on the run game as the Packers’ defensive front has ranked 30th in run stop win rate (26.9%) since Week 12. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 0-4 ATS after a loss this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Packers 24, Ravens 22
Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Ravens 21
Walder’s pick: Packers 23, Ravens 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 50.2% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-read: ‘No excuses’: How frustrating issues repeatedly derail the Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Fox | JAX -6.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: QB Philip Rivers‘ return is a fun story, but stopping RB Jonathan Taylor is likely the key to winning in Indianapolis, where the Jaguars have won just twice in their past 11 trips. Taylor has run for 546 yards and four touchdowns (averaging 6.4 yards per carry) in three home games against Jacksonville. The Colts are undefeated in those games. The Jaguars’ top-ranked run defense limited Taylor earlier this month to 74 yards in a 36-19 victory and might need a repeat. — Michael DiRocco
What we’re hearing on the Colts: These teams met just three weeks ago with first place in the AFC South on the line. Now, they square off in a game that can end the Colts’ ever-so-faint playoff hopes and propel the Jaguars toward a division title. The trajectory of these division rivals has shifted significantly over the course of this season, with the Jaguars on a six-game win streak and the Colts dropping their past five. For injury-plagued Indianapolis, the question is whether it can avoid a seven-game losing streak to end the season, which would presumably put organizational changes on the table — injuries or not. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Jaguars WR Parker Washington‘s career-high 145 receiving yards in Week 16 were the most in a game by Jacksonville player since Evan Engram had 162 in Week 14 of 2022. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Colts won’t record a sack. Indianapolis ranks 32nd in pass rush win rate (28.1%) and red-hot quarterback Trevor Lawrence should have plenty of clean pockets as a result. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Colts could be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a Texans win, or in a wild scenario where the Chiefs, Ravens, Bucs, 49ers and Rams win. The Jaguars can clinch the AFC South with a win and a Texans loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Lawrence finished with a season-high 31.6 fantasy points against a Broncos defense that has been stingy to opposing signal-callers. Lawrence and WRs Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers are now in a favorable spot against a Colts defense that ranks in the top eight in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Rivers has been a home underdog of at least six points only once in his career (+7 vs. the Broncos in 2013, lost by eight points). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Jaguars 34, Colts 28
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 26, Colts 20
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 24, Colts 16
FPI prediction: JAX, 59.6% (by an average of 3.3 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | SEA -7.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Seahawks: Seattle is fortunate the NFL didn’t move this game to Saturday, because it needs all the rest it can get after the overtime thriller last Thursday night. Seattle’s defense was on the field for 88 official plays against the Rams, meaning coach Mike Macdonald’s unit essentially played an extra half of a game on a short week. The Seahawks’ win gave them the inside track at the NFC West title and the conference’s top seed. But if Seattle doesn’t win Sunday, it might have to head back to Charlotte in the wild-card round. — Brady Henderson
What we’re hearing on the Panthers: Hope. Belief. That’s what coach Dave Canales said the Panthers got from Sunday’s win over Tampa Bay to stay viable in the NFC South race. That’s what will fuel them against Seattle. But don’t expect the Panthers to be watching the scoreboard for the Bucs’ matchup against the Dolphins: “We can’t afford to do that,” Canales said. — David Newton
Stat to know: In their win against the Rams, the Seahawks had the largest fourth-quarter comeback by any team versus an opponent eight games over .500 since the 1970 merger. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon will record an interception. Witherspoon has great coverage metrics this season, with a 12% target rate and 0.8 yards per coverage snap allowed, both much better than average for corners. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Panthers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Bucs loss. The Seahawks clinched a playoff spot in Week 16 and can clinch the NFC West with a win and losses from the 49ers and Rams. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:08
Seahawks coach says Sam Darnold’s confidence resonates with players
Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald tells Rich Eisen about the mindset and work ethic that Sam Darnold brings to the Seattle locker room.
Fantasy nugget: In the snap distribution between Panthers RBs Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, Dowdle has handled the early-down work while Hubbard has played most of the third downs. Carolina now faces a tough Seattle in a game where the Panthers could be playing from behind. That would shift the offense toward the passing game, favoring Hubbard’s role. Combined with the Seahawks allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs, Hubbard might be the better play. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 games as home underdogs (5-1 ATS this season). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Seahawks 31, Panthers 13
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 14
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 27, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: SEA, 68.3% (by an average of 7.1 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | CIN -7 (53.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Cardinals: Though WR Marvin Harrison Jr. said last week that he’ll probably play injured the rest of the season, coach Jonathan Gannon said Harrison’s reps could increase in Cincinnati. Arizona will take his heel injury day-to-day before deciding what kind of pitch count he’ll be on, just as he was last week. But the Cardinals have to balance the value he brings on the field at less than 100 percent healthy against him not being on the field at all. “If we thought that we were endangering him, we wouldn’t put him out there,” Gannon said. — Josh Weinfuss
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: All eyes for the Bengals will be centered on Cardinals TE Trey McBride. He is third in catches (109) and sixth in receiving yards (1,098) — far and away the most by a tight end this season in either category. Cincinnati is the most favorable matchup in the league in two key categories: most receiving yards (1,362) and touchdowns (15) surrendered to opposing tight ends in 2025. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has had at least 90 receiving yards in all six home games this season and reached 100 in five of those (91 yards on 12 receptions in a Week 8 loss). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: McBride will record at least 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Is it even that bold considering the matchup? This is the most productive TE this season against the Bengals, who have given up by far the most receiving yards to the position. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, but the Cardinals have officially locked up a top-10 draft selection. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Bengals RB Chase Brown finished with a season-high 32.9 fantasy points last week. He faces a Cardinals defensive front that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs and that surrendered 29.8 fantasy points to Falcons’ Bijan Robinson in Week 16. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their past five games (3-1 ATS since QB Joe Burrow returned). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bengals 31, Cardinals 9
Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Cardinals 24
Walder’s pick: Bengals 24, Cardinals 22
FPI prediction: CIN, 65.2% (by an average of 6.0 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | TB -5.5 (46.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Buccaneers: The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Bucs, who had one of the hottest starts in the league through the first half of the season at 6-2 but have dropped six out of their past seven games. Those losses include three straight to divisional opponents in the past three weeks. “We understand we control our own destiny, but our biggest enemy right now is us,” coach Todd Bowles said. — Jenna Laine
What we’re hearing on the Dolphins: QB Quinn Ewers gets his second start after coach Mike McDaniel said the rookie did “as much, if not more, than reasonably expected” last week. Don’t get it confused — he’s playing because McDaniel believes he gives Miami the best chance to win. This isn’t just about development with the playoffs out of the picture. As McDaniel said this week: “I don’t play Monopoly with people’s careers. When I say I think someone gives the best chance to win, I mean it out of integrity.” — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Dolphins RB De’Von Achane leads the NFL with 5.8 rushing yards per attempt this season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Buccaneers RB Rachaad White will score a touchdown on a screen pass. The Bucs have run 24 screens to RBs this season, the third most in the NFL, and no team has surrendered a higher EPA per play to opponent screens (0.36) than the Dolphins. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bucs could join the Dolphins in being eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and a Panthers win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:34
Are Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel the right fit for Dolphins?
The “Get Up” crew discusses whether Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel are part of the long-term future for the Dolphins.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Dolphins
Fantasy nugget: The Dolphins’ defense has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs but still gave up 19.9 to Ja’Marr Chase in Week 16. That’s something to keep in mind for managers considering starting WRs Mike Evans or Chris Godwin Jr. However, Miami has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season, which bodes well for RB Bucky Irving. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bucs have covered seven straight meetings against the Dolphins dating to 1997. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Dolphins 23, Buccaneers 17
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Dolphins 23
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: TB, 69.1% (by an average of 7.4 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | PIT -3.5 (33.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Steelers: Coach Mike Tomlin laughed when asked if fourth-string LT Dylan Cook will get help blocking Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, who’s on the cusp of breaking the NFL sack record. “Everybody gets help against Myles Garrett,” he said. “I just finished watching San Francisco tape. Trent Williams got help. … It hasn’t slowed down the train. He still has got 22 sacks. … We better put schematics around [Cook]. He better play well, and we better stay out of one-dimensional passing circumstances, and you still might not stop the bomb from going off.” The Steelers have had trouble stopping Garrett in Cleveland recently, as he has recorded five sacks in Pittsburgh’s last two trips to the Dawg Pound. — Brooke Pryor
What we’re hearing on the Browns: QB Shedeur Sanders will make his first start against the Steelers in the home finale. He could join Brandon Weeden and Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the only Browns rookie QBs to beat a Tomlin-led Steelers team. “Obviously, Shedeur did not play in the first Pittsburgh game, so first time versus that group. So you really have to spend a lot of time this week getting to know this defensive front, their coverages, those types of things,” coach Kevin Stefanski said. — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: Garrett is one sack shy of passing T.J. Watt in 2021 and Michael Strahan in 2001 for the most by any player in a single season since sacks became official in 1982. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell will record 60 or more receiving yards. It’s not just because of his amazing catch last week: 20% of targets against the Browns go to running backs (fifth highest), and as good as Cleveland’s defense is, it allows its fair share of yards after the catch. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers can clinch a playoff berth and the AFC North with a win or a Ravens loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:01
Should the Steelers rest Aaron Rodgers if they clinch a playoff spot?
Dan Graziano and Louis Riddick explain why resting Aaron Rodgers might be a bad idea if the Steelers clinch a playoff spot with a Ravens loss.
Fantasy nugget: Steelers RBs Jaylen Warren (29.1 fantasy points) and Gainwell (23.8) delivered strong Week 16 performances, showing they can coexist in a committee behind an offensive line that ranks ninth in run block win rate (72.2%). They now face a Browns run defense that has struggled in recent weeks and just surrendered 26.4 fantasy points to the Bills’ James Cook. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 11-21 ATS as underdogs since 2023. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Browns 31, Packers 29
Moody’s pick: Steelers 20, Browns 13
Walder’s pick: Steelers 22, Browns 19
FPI prediction: PIT, 73.6% (by an average of 8.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Steelers’ Metcalf suspended two games for fan altercation … Browns’ Schwesinger’s path from walk-on to rookie star … Tracking sack record pace for Garrett (22!)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | NE -13.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Patriots: DT Milton Williams practiced for the first time this week since being placed on injured reserve (ankle) four weeks ago. He hopes to be ready Sunday, which would bring much-needed help to a position group that could be without Khyiris Tonga (foot) and Joshua Farmer (hamstring). “I’m feeling good,” Williams said earlier in the week. “Just have to see how it responds. If all goes well, it will be a good thing for the Patriots.” — Mike Reiss
What we’re hearing on the Jets: Despite profound struggles, undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook will remain the starter. In 11 quarters of playing time, he has six interceptions, three fumbles (one lost), 17 sacks and only two touchdown drives. Coach Aaron Glenn has acknowledged that Cook holds on to the ball too long but added, “All of our hands are bloody.” By that, he means everyone — players and coaches — has to do a better job of helping Cook, whose inexperience is glaring. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: With another road win Sunday at the Jets, the Patriots’ Drake Maye would become the only starting QB under 24 years old to win eight road games in a season since starts were first tracked in 1950. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Jets DT Jowon Briggs will record a sack for the second straight game. Maye is having an MVP-caliber season but sacks have been an area of weakness. He has taken sacks on 8.3% of dropbacks, higher than average. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Jets have already been eliminated from playoff contention. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Bills loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Patriots have averaged 148 rushing yards per game over their past three contests, the sixth most in the league. New England would be wise to lean on its running game against a Jets defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to RBs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Home underdogs of seven-plus points are 63-37 ATS over the past five seasons (11-7 ATS this season, 4-14 outright). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 35, Jets 10
Moody’s pick: Patriots 27, Jets 16
Walder’s pick: Patriots 24, Jets 12
FPI prediction: NE, 71.4% (by an average of 8.5 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | NO -2.5 (39.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Saints: New Orleans is trying to go for its fourth straight win with a roster that continues to get depleted by injuries. Coach Kellen Moore has already ruled out TE Foster Moreau (ankle) and DT Bryan Bresee (knee). The status of RB Alvin Kamara remains up in the air as he has missed four games with a knee injury. Rookie RB Devin Neal (hamstring) was put on IR last week, which paved the way for Taysom Hill to have a big game in the home finale. — Katherine Terrell
What we’re hearing on the Titans: QB Cam Ward is riding a three-game streak with multiple touchdown passes. He has six TD passes over his past three games after posting seven over the first 12. It’s no coincidence Tennessee is 2-1 over the recent stretch, and the team got help from the run game as well. “It was made very easy,” Ward said of the run game’s impact on him as a passer. “Tony [Pollard], the O-line, the run game, that’s why we’re trending upwards. We’ve just got to continue to play complementary football, help the defense out and continue to be balanced on offense.” Pollard posted 100-yard rushing games in each of the past three weeks. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Saints QB Tyler Shough has completed at least 60% of his passes in each of his first seven career starts. If he can make it eight, he will tie Joe Burrow for the third-longest such streak to start a career since at least 1950, when QB starts were first tracked. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Saints will hold the Titans to under four yards per carry. The Titans have been running the ball well over the past couple of weeks, but the Saints rank fifth in EPA allowed per designed run and lead the league in run stop win rate (36.6%) over the past two weeks. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:37
Can Saquon find success vs. Buffalo defense?
Jeff Saturday and Louis Riddick discuss what Saquon Barkley can do against a Bills defense that has struggled to stop the run.
Fantasy nugget: Saints WR Chris Olave posted season highs in targets (16) and fantasy points (36.8) last week and is well-positioned for another big performance against a Titans defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to WRs. TE Juwan Johnson, who finished with 16.9 fantasy points last week, is also in a favorable spot, as he and Olave lead the Saints in targets. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 9-23 ATS since the start of last season, the worst record in the NFL. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Titans 27, Saints 24
Moody’s pick: Saints 21, Titans 17
Walder’s pick: Saints 26, Titans 16
FPI prediction: NO, 56.0% (by an average of 2.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Saints’ Hill reflects on ‘special day’ with his future uncertain … Saints’ Olave said he contemplated retirement last year
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | LV -1.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Giants: This game may be looked at as the fight for the No. 1 overall pick, but the Giants are more interested in snapping a nine-game losing streak. Another loss ties the franchise record of 10 straight losses, which was set last season. “I really don’t think we talk about that part too much about the draft positioning and wanting a certain pick or anything like that,” WR Wan’Dale Robinson said. “I think we just want to go out there and play our best football and go out there and get a win.” — Jordan Raanan
What we’re hearing on the Raiders: Does coach Pete Carroll care if a win weakens the team’s chances of claiming the No. 1 pick? Of course not. Las Vegas made strides offensively in last week’s loss. Carroll wants to build on that performance to snap the Raiders’ own nine-game skid. “I’m not really that concerned about any of that, and I don’t think you want me to be,” Carroll said. “We’re going to go play and play the best we can play and see what happens.” — Ryan McFadden
Stat to know: Raiders QB Geno Smith‘s 15 interceptions this season are tied for the most in the NFL (with Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Giants QB Jaxson Dart will record a QBR over 60. He’s coming off a game in which he recorded a 4.7, with an inefficient day off of a conservative game plan against the Vikings. I’m willing to bank that was defense specific, and the Giants will let him loose against Las Vegas. — Walder
What’s at stake: ESPN Analytics gives the Giants a 61% chance to win in Week 17, which would put the Raiders in a prime position to earn the top pick in April’s draft. Entering Week 16, Las Vegas had a 39% chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty finished with 25 touches and 31.8 fantasy points last week, his second-highest total. The timing is ideal, as the Raiders now face a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to RBs. Jeanty should be able to capitalize on the soft matchup. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants are 1-5 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Giants 20, Raiders 19
Moody’s pick: Giants 24, Raiders 20
Walder’s pick: Giants 27, Raiders 14
FPI prediction: NYG, 53.4% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: NFL execs, coaches: What is the state of the Giants roster?
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | BUF -1.5 (43.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Eagles: This matchup features two of the NFL’s most prolific rushing QBs in Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. Hurts has been more selective with his feet this season and is on pace for career lows for rushing attempts and yards since taking over as the full-time starter in 2021. He has stepped it up of late, though, rushing 14 times for 79 yards over the past two games. Expect that trend to continue as the stakes rise around playoff time. — Tim McManus
What we’re hearing on the Bills: RB James Cook III has the lead in the battle for the rushing title (1,532) over the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (1,489), and continuing his success on the ground could go a long way against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Eagles have allowed 123.5 rushing yards per game (21st) and given up first downs on 27.6% of rushes (27th). “[Cook] had some big games last year, but the look in his eye each week, the intensity that he shows up with, it’s really been influential on our whole football team,” coach Sean McDermott said. “Guys see that. That’s kind of a little bit unique for a running back position player to have that type of impact on the whole team.” — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: In 2023’s Week 12 battle between these two teams, Hurts and Allen both finished with multiple passing touchdowns and multiple rushing touchdowns, marking the first game in NFL history where opposing players accomplished that feat, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Allen will rush for at least 60 yards. The Bills receivers are going to be outmatched by the Eagles in this game, so it could fall even more than usual on the shoulders of Allen to generate production. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles have clinched a playoff berth and the NFC East. If the Bills lose, they will be out of contention for the AFC East title, but have still clinched a playoff berth. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Bills’ defensive front has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game and now has to deal with Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, who has logged at least 20 touches and 17 fantasy points in three consecutive games. Barkley remains the focal point of a Philadelphia offense that’s finally settling into an identity with the playoffs approaching. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody Betting nugget: The Eagles are 5-0 outright as underdogs since the start of last season, including playoffs (4-0 in regular season). Read more. — ESPN Research Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 19, Bills 16 Matchup must-reads: ‘Been there, won that’: Eagles clinch NFC East again … Will Bills defense’s reliance on second-half adjustments be Achilles’ heel in playoffs? 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | SF -3 (51.5 O/U) What we’re hearing on the Bears: The Bears clinched their spot in the postseason after beating the Packers and seeing the Lions lose to the Steelers. That’s step No. 1 for coach Ben Johnson, who long preached the need to get to 11 wins to get into the playoffs. The Bears can wrap up the NFC North on Sunday and are still in play for the No. 1 seed. All it takes is wins over the Niners and Lions, coupled with Seattle losing one of its remaining two games (at Carolina and versus San Francisco). “There’s a million things that we have to continue to work on and we’re still playing meaningful football right here and right now,” Johnson said. — Courtney Cronin What we’re hearing on the 49ers: San Francisco has won five straight games by double digits and clinched a playoff spot, but Chicago will be one of its toughest tests since both teams are fighting for the No. 1 seed. What’s more, this game offers a good test of where both teams stack up in the wide-open NFC. “The challenge is just winning one game at a time and try to be the best that we can going into the playoffs,” QB Brock Purdy said. “We know what’s at stake with the first seed and all that, but we can’t get our minds wrapped around just that. … So, we have to be locked in.” — Nick Wagoner Stat to know: The Bears have six wins after trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter this season, the most by any team in a season since the 1970 merger. — ESPN Research Bold prediction: These two teams will combine for at least 70 points. If the Bears can’t generate turnovers, then there will be very few stops in this game. This is also due to how well the Bears run the ball and the 49ers pass the ball, plus the weaknesses of both defenses (turnovers aside, for Chicago). — Walder What’s at stake: The Bears can clinch the NFC North with a win or a Packers loss. The 49ers have clinched a playoff berth. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research Fantasy nugget: The Bears defense just held the Packers offense scoreless on 10 plays inside the 10-yard line. This is something to keep in mind for managers starting 49ers players like Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Jauan Jennings or TE George Kittle. Don’t bench them, but the matchup is tougher than it might appear. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody Betting nugget: The 49ers are 4-1 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3 (5-0 straight-up). Read more. — ESPN Research Maldonado’s pick: 49ers 44, Bears 23 Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | LAR -8.5 (49.5 O/U) What we’re hearing on the Rams: RG Kevin Dotson is doubtful to play this week, coach Sean McVay said. Dotson left the Rams’ loss to the Seahawks with an ankle injury and was in a walking boot and on crutches after the game. “It’ll be hard for him to make it this week,” McVay said. Dotson ranks 25th out of 62 qualifying guards in run block win rate (71%). — Sarah Barshop What we’re hearing on the Falcons: Coach Raheem Morris once had to go head-to-head with Rams QB Matthew Stafford every day in practice, so he knows what’s in store for Atlanta. Morris referred to Stafford as “weapon X” this week and said Stafford is “probably the MVP.” The Falcons have to be wary, because though they are second in the league in sacks (50) — their highest total since 1997 — Stafford has been sacked the ninth-fewest times (19) among qualified QBs. — Marc Raimondi Stat to know: Assuming he starts on Monday, Falcons OT Jake Matthews would tie the fourth-longest streak for consecutive starts by an offensive lineman since the 1970 merger, according to Elias. — ESPN Research Bold prediction: The Rams will score at least 42 points. If they can put up 37 (granted, with overtime) against the Seahawks defense, then there’s no limit against a normal defense. The Falcons are the second-most blitz-heavy defense in the league (36%) and the Rams are even more efficient passing against the blitz (0.30 EPA/P) than they are otherwise. — Walder What’s at stake: The Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention, and the Rams have already clinched a berth. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research Fantasy nugget: The Rams backfield has evolved into a committee between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Corum has logged at least 11 touches in three straight games and scored at least 13 fantasy points in each. He has also found the end zone in four consecutive games, putting him in a strong spot against a middle-of-the-road Falcons defensive front. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody Betting nugget: Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is 5-10 outright and ATS on “Monday Night Football,” but he is 5-1 outright and ATS in his past six instances in that role (2-0 with Falcons). Read more. — ESPN Research Maldonado’s pick: Rams 34, Falcons 24 Matchup must-reads: Rams falter against Seahawks, take a hit in NFC standings
Moody’s pick: Bills 28, Eagles 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 24, Eagles 21
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by an average of 0.0 points)
Moody’s pick: 49ers 30, Bears 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 40, Bears 30
FPI prediction: SF, 61.4% (by an average of 4.4 points)
Moody’s pick: Rams 31, Falcons 20
Walder’s pick: Rams 42, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: LAR, 71.6% (by an average of 8.7 points)
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