I say this at the same time every year, but we always seem to forget it: Most January transfers don’t matter.

There has rarely been a signing across the Big Five leagues that genuinely made a difference for an eventual title-winning team. More specifically, via analysis from the consultancy Twenty First Group: “Net transfer spend in January has just a 5% positive correlation with change in points per game, and that €20 million in net spending has delivered on average just a 0.03 increase in points per game in the big five leagues since 2015.”

Of course, this doesn’t mean January transfers can’t make a difference — especially with the current bunched-up state of the Premier League. Over half a season, those 0.03 points per game add up to just over half a point, but that could be the difference between winning the title vs. coming in second or nabbing a Champions League place vs. spending your Thursdays traveling to Helsinki for Europa League matches.

With 20 games remaining, the gap between first and third is just three points, while the gap between fifth and 17th is just 11 points. Theoretically, everyone from Chelsea to Nottingham Forest could qualify for the Champions League next year. (Projections from Opta’s Nils Mackay give the Premier League a 98.2% chance of earning a bonus Champions League place again this season.) But by probabilities, the list is smaller than that.

Simon Tinsley’s projections give eight teams a 10% or better chance at qualifying for the Champions League, while the title race splits to 69% for Arsenal, 30% for Manchester City, and around 1% each for Aston Villa and, somehow, Liverpool.

So, today, we’re going to pick out the most urgent transfer needs for all eight of those teams and then rank them in order of how urgent they actually are.

– Darke’s Premier League Best XI: Rice, Szoboszlai, Haaland
– Which of these midfield transfer targets fit at Man United?
– Who should Arsenal and Man City worry about? Aston Villa

8. Newcastle United: someone who can turn possession into shots

Yes, we’re starting with the team that’s 13th in the table. Brighton & Hove Albion, Everton, Fulham, Brentford and Sunderland fans: You have a right to be angry that your team isn’t on this list. There’s a good chance at least one of you five is challenging for a Champions League place by the end of the season; there’s just not a good chance that it’s you, in particular.

And so, if you want, you can say that No. 9 on this list should be “The Rest: Brighton, Everton, Fulham, Brentford, Sunderland, and even Tottenham,” but all of their individual chances of finishing top-five are quite slim … so no, these teams need to go fishing in the expensive waters of the January transfer window.

However, Newcastle have the seventh-best expected goal differential in the league. And by adjusted goal differential — 70% goals, 30% expected goals — they’re also seventh. Throw in that they were excellent last season and have been pretty good in the Champions League so far this season, and projection systems are always going to be higher on this team than their place in the table suggests.

At the same time, their place in the table really diminishes the urgency of the January window for Eddie Howe’s team. Tinsley’s model gives them a 13% chance of finishing in the top five. If they were going to make a move, they should try to find someone who can take their quality passing and dangerous possession and actually turn it into attempts on goal. Only Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City have completed more passes into the penalty area than Newcastle, but 10 teams have created more expected goals.

7. Arsenal: another striker

I get that there has been some consternation over Arsenal’s recent results. Since the 3-1 thumping of Bayern Munich, they’ve dropped four points in six matches, failed to beat a Chelsea team that played down a man for the majority of the match, were genuinely outplayed by an Aston Villa side that never outplays anyone — oh, we’ll get to that — and then could only beat Everton, Wolves and Brighton by a single goal each.

But here’s how they rank, purely by expected-goal differential in the Premier League, since that win over Bayern:

The title race is much more in play than it was a couple of months ago, but that’s more down to City going on a run than Arsenal leaking oil. The Gunners are probably the deepest team in the world, and they’re built to win right now. In fact, they made all of their win-now signings over the summer. Viktor Gyökeres would be the clear player to upgrade, but they invested a lot in him (and Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus), so I’m not sure it makes a ton of sense to sign up for another lottery ticket at striker.

For better or worse, this is Arsenal’s team. They’re probably the best team in the world, and they’re definitely good enough to win the title — but that doesn’t mean they will.

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Will Arsenal overcome their ‘blip’ in the title race?

Shaka Hislop explains why Arsenal could still win the Premier League despite going through a ‘blip’ in the title race.

This team has 11 players who’ve started at least 12 Premier League matches, and then nobody else is north of seven. Oliver Glasner has ridden his 11 starters about as hard as you can, and I’m just not sure that’s sustainable. Recent results certainly suggest as much. But on the whole, this team really has been fantastic this season, and the bounce of the ball is the main reason they’re not higher in the table.

It’s just that Palace are also playing in the UEFA Europa Conference League this season, and they haven’t played in Europe since 1998. This isn’t a squad built to compete domestically and abroad. We saw it in how they approached the summer; they replaced Eberechi Eze with Yéremy Pino, and signed 19-year-old center back Jaydee Canvot, presumably, to prepare for Marc Guéhi‘s expected departure this upcoming summer, but that’s it.

They didn’t add depth, and while Glasner has rotated in the Conference League, he plays the same 11 guys in the Premier League every week — unless injuries force his hand, which has happened over the past few weeks.

Weirdly, it’s a good problem to have. Palace could sign a competent player — or players — at any position other than goalkeeper, and it would immediately make the team better.

I’m less convinced that signing a new center back will solve any immediate problems for Liverpool. They were hours away from signing Guéhi over the summer, and that was before Ibrahima Konaté developed a chronic case of brain flatulence and Giovanni Leoni tore an ACL while running out of bounds.

If Konaté or Virgil van Dijk gets hurt, then it seems like the plan is to either hope that Joe Gomez is healthy and able to play center back again or hope that Ryan Gravenberch or Wataru Endo can hold down the fort for a significant period of time.

That doesn’t seem like a great plan!

But, as we saw over the summer, even signing players that pretty much everyone likes doesn’t guarantee success. At the very least, there’s something logically incoherent in seeing Liverpool’s season fall apart as they try to integrate six new signings and then thinking that the solution is … even more signings.

So, if Liverpool were to sign a defender, I think it would likely be as depth or as a long-term replacement for Konaté rather than as an immediate upgrade. They’re out of the title race, they have an outside shot at winning the Champions League, and Tinsley’s projections give them an 85% chance of finishing top-five.

Liverpool tried to thread the needle between winning now and building for the future, and their struggles this season have pushed them toward the latter. The January window isn’t quite as urgent as it seems.

4. Chelsea: another midfielder

I have a hard time advocating for Chelsea to sign anyone because they’ve already signed everyone. But they’re currently about a coin flip for finishing in the top five, which is a problem for a team that has pushed the Premier League’s spending rules right up to their breaking point.

They need Champions League revenue to continue with this model of turning a soccer club into an always-churning talent portfolio.

Reece James has suddenly given them elite midfield depth; he’s genuinely one of the best midfielders and fullbacks in the Premier League, and both at the same time. But also: He’s Reece James, the guy who has played 2,000 first-division minutes just once in his career. And Chelsea, on the whole, has played poorly when he has been on the field this season.

Chelsea can still get by with Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández playing behind Cole Palmer in the midfield, but that’s a vulnerable setup, especially with no depth behind it and plenty more Champions League matches still to come. Maybe Andrey Santos or Romeo Lavia can perform at a high enough level if they have to, but I suspect that already would’ve happened were it true.

One area they can stand to upgrade is at center forward. Liam Delap has really struggled whenever he plays, and João Pedro still doesn’t take shots. Both players were signed over the summer, but if there’s any club that’s going to move on from someone after just a few months, it’s the one owned by BlueCo.

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Maresca: Chelsea need to improve reaction to conceding goals

Enzo Maresca reacts to Chelsea’s 2-1 loss to Aston Villa in the Premier League.

3. Manchester City: someone who can provide control

Here’s an image:

One important piece of context for this image is that it’s not minutes adjusted or whittled down to any kind of per-game number. No, Manchester City have created more xG from counterattacks from the first 18 games of this season than they have in any of the 38 games of the previous eight seasons.

This is why Pep Guardiola might be the best ever.

Last season, City’s slow-paced approach finally fell apart. Now, they’re the best counterattacking team in England, and they’re back to challenging for Premier and Champions League titles.

But it still doesn’t really make sense. Rodri has still barely played, and while his replacement, Nico González, can keep the ball, he isn’t close to the defensive presence that the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner is when healthy. Their forward line is Erling Haaland, who barely touches the ball, and then two high-risk winners in Rayan Cherki and Jérémy Doku.

In front of González, in the midfield, are both Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva — two tiny attacker-midfielder hybrids. And City’s two new fullbacks, Nico O’Reilly and Matheus Nunes, are big, ball-carrying types rather than possession players.

They’ve mostly flourished amid the chaos, but even though they won those back-to-back matches against Real Madrid and Crystal Palace a few weeks ago, they looked incredibly vulnerable for long stretches of both games.

It used to be that City had way too many safe possession players who could slow the game down or break up transitions, but right now, they might not have quite enough.

Gradient Sports developed a catch-all metric to measure what they call “athleticism.” It uses tracking data to monitor a player’s various physical metrics across the entire game. The number is then adjusted based on whether these were starter or sub minutes, what position the player played, and how tall the player is.

It’s meant to capture a combination of stamina and explosiveness, and it’s presented as a 0-100 percentile score. Basically, who can run consistently throughout the game while also constantly changing speeds and sprinting fast?

Among players who’ve made at least 10 midfield appearances this season, the top three are: Bournemouth‘s Alex Scott (98.3), Bournemouth’s Tyler Adams (98.1), and Liverpool’s Curtis Jones (97.1).

No other midfielders are above the 95th percentile — especially not any of Manchester United’s midfielders. Manuel Ugarte (37.9), Kobbie Mainoo (32.7), Bruno Fernandes (21.5), and Casemiro (4.9) all rate as well below average by Gradient’s definition of athleticism.

For a team that only plays with two midfielders and theoretically requires more physical output from those players, that’s a big problem. And really, it’s a problem United have been trying to solve for nearly a decade. However, if they do solve it, they could easily be back in the Champions League next season.

And, real quick, while we’re here: James Milner is 39 years old, and he’s still popping up in Gradient’s model with 83rd-percentile athleticism.

1. Aston Villa: attackers, midfielders, defenders

I love doing these little blind-résumé team comparisons, so here’s another one:

Team A is currently on an eight-game win streak, is three points back of first, and has already beaten the teams in both first and second

Team B has attempted 208 shots (13th-most in the league), has conceded 231 shots (eighth-most in the league), has created 19.8 xG (15th-most in the league), and has conceded 25.5 xG (ninth-most in the league)

Team A, of course, is Aston Villa. Team B, however, is … also Aston Villa. And so, we have a team that’s allowing more shots than it attempts, conceding better opportunities to their opponents than they create for themselves, and still winning every game they play.

It’s an amazing run, but c’mon: This isn’t sustainable.

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Is Unai Emery the Premier League manager of the season?

Janusz Michallik explains why he believes Unai Emery is already the Premier league manager of the season after Aston Villa’s eleventh win in a row vs. Chelsea.

We’d all agree that Leicester City are the most unlikely champions in modern Premier League history, right? And even they outshot their opponents across the 2015-16 season. Their expected-goal differential was plus-0.6 per game; Villa’s, currently, is minus-0.32.

Over the course of this season, this Villa team hasn’t been effective in either attacking or defending. Emiliano Martínez has made numerous big saves, and then Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Matty Cash and Amadou Onana converted their combined 4.5 expected goals into 16 actual goals. That’s just not a recipe for winning the league — especially with both Arsenal and Manchester City playing at a much higher level than anyone else did during that 2015-16 season.

And yet, Villa have already banked a ton of points. I expected them to challenge for a top-four spot coming into this season, so I’m also not willing to say that they’re going to suddenly fall off a cliff and play at the bottom-half of the table that their expected goals numbers suggest for the rest of the year.

Their finances are tight, but Villa have so many different paths to improving the roster. They’re one of the favorites to finish in the Champions League places despite an attack, a midfield and a defense that haven’t played at a Champions League-quality level at any point this season. That means that they’re likely to regress real soon, but it also means there are plenty of players out there who could make this team better.

By its own lofty standards, the ACC has muddled through a string of mediocre seasons. The 18-team league received its lowest number of NCAA bids in more than a decade (four) last season, and it hasn’t been a top-three conference since before 2020.

Unexpected Final Four appearances by North Carolina (2022) and NC State (2024) have cushioned the fall, but the decline was always there. The ACC had eight top-40 teams in 2019 — the year of its last national title, via Virginia — compared to last season’s four.

The mediocrity has been mostly in the middle of the standings, but it might finally be ending. With Duke doing Duke things at the top, the likes of Virginia, NC State, Miami and SMU have emerged as solid bubble teams. A half dozen others, even Cal, are in position to add to the ACC’s bid count.

For the first time in a good while, Selection Sunday should bring very good news to Tobacco Road.

The ACC begins conference play on Dec. 30.

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Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights

Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights

Final Four contenders

Duke Blue Devils
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals

The Blue Devils are an obvious choice behind Player of the Year contender Cameron Boozer, but UNC with a healthy Seth Trimble and Louisville can also mount a serious challenge in March.

Likely tournament teams

Virginia Cavaliers
Clemson Tigers
SMU Mustangs
NC State Wolfpack
Miami Hurricanes

Virginia is the “feel good” story here under new coach Ryan Odom. With wins over Northwestern, Texas, Dayton and Maryland, the Cavaliers sit atop the ACC’s resurrected second tier.

Possible tournament teams

Cal Golden Bears
Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The West Coast additions are both ahead of schedule in their second ACC season. This year, they also host Duke and Carolina for the first time in league play, which should make for an interesting road swing for the conference’s traditional powers.

Sleeper team

Virginia Tech Hokies

The Hokies have a future pro in Greek freshman Neoklis Avdalas and have surrounded him with mostly veteran and productive role players. At 11-2, they’re doing their best to erase the 13-19 nightmare from a season ago.

Long shots

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Syracuse Orange

Just when you think these former stalwarts have turned the corner, they lose home games to the likes of Fort Wayne and Hofstra. Not what you want if your address is anywhere near the bubble.

Maybe next year…

Pittsburgh Panthers
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Boston College Eagles

The ACC may be vastly improved, but not enough to lift its bottom four teams into NCAA tournament consideration. New coach Luke Loucks is succeeding a legend (Leonard Hamilton) at Florida State and will need a little more time. And time may be running out at the other three schools, which have nonconference losses to the likes of Quinnipiac, Drake and Central Connecticut.

Key games to watch

The January transfer window opens this Thursday, and with it comes a monthlong midseason dash for teams up and down the league table. For elite teams, it’s a chance to reinforce in the push for a trophy — or multiple. For teams looking to escape relegation, it’s an opportunity to bring in the kinds of players who can finish the job.

But it’s not just about the movement of players between clubs; those stars approaching the end of their contracts, either hitting free agency in the summer of 2026 or 2027, require attention from teams keen to extend them to new terms before they are persuaded to join elsewhere.

With some big teams in very different situations heading into the winter window, Mark Ogden and Gab Marcotti have dusted off their sporting director hats and Keep or Dump concept to look at the basic decisions these clubs need to make on all fronts, from acquisitions and exits to contract renewals.

– O’Hanlon: How much is each position in soccer worth?
– Ian Darke’s Best PL XI of the season so far
– Hamilton: Why so many young PL players are going overseas

– League position on Dec. 29: Sixth, 29 points (Last season’s finish: 15th, 42 points)
– Realistic goal for 2025-26: Champions League qualification and performance improvements

1. Assess the team’s growth under Ruben Amorim and whether you want to make a change

Marcotti: He’s under contract until June 2027, but clubs generally don’t keep coaches with expiring deals so really they’re going to have to decide whether to extend him. And they’ll probably want to do it by March to give themselves the best possible chance of finding a worthy successor.

Ogden: I don’t think Amorim’s long-term future can be addressed right now, but I certainly think it’s fair to suggest that he is on notice to show significant progress by the end of the season. If he achieves a top-six finish, that should be enough to keep his job safe, but if United miss out on Europe again, then allowing Amorim to see out his contract would feel like a wasted year for the club.

2. Let’s move next to more imminent free agents. Casemiro is out of contract in June. What do you do with him?

Marcotti: He’s 34 in February and he’s likely thinking about the World Cup, so there’s no real rush to act here. Wait and see on what you decide with Amorim.

You’re not going to rebuild your entire midfield in one summer. He’s been better this season — if he’s happy to stay as a squad player or mentor, keep him around.

Ogden: The deal here is that Casemiro would have to take a huge drop in wages if he’s to have any hope of a new short-term contract in Manchester. I think there is value in United exploring that because his experience can be useful, but I suspect he will receive a better offer from Saudi Arabia or even a decent contract from a club back in Brazil.

Instead of figuring out Casemiro’s fit, United’s priority has to be finding two younger midfielders for the long term.

3. Harry Maguire is also out of contract in June. What’s your move?

Marcotti: Sure, he’s been a loyal servant and everything, but whether Amorim stays or goes, you don’t need a 33-year-old backup central defender with an iffy injury record. Move on. Let him leave.

Ogden: If you asked me this a year ago, I’d have said move him on. But his recent injury-enforced absence has highlighted how important he has become in Amorim’s system, and his experience has been a huge loss. Offer him a 12-month extension so he can help with this team’s next iteration.

4. Now onto those core players who are in need of extensions or new clubs, starting with Bruno Fernandes, who has 18 months left on his contract. Where does he fit in?

Marcotti: It depends on the manager to some degree, but more realistically there’s nothing to do here beyond waiting. Fernandes has spoken out about how he felt hurt that the club tried to shift him in the past. And he’s enough of a grownup to know that he can’t expect a new deal when he’ll be on the verge of his 33rd birthday when this one expires. He has to play out of position in Amorim’s system because he can pass better than anybody else, but really he should be operating closer to goal, and he knows that.

I think he realizes he’ll be phased out no matter who is in charge, and much will depend on whether he accepts a different role.

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Did Man United look better without Fernandes in win vs. Newcastle?

Mark Ogden reacts to Manchester United’s 1-0 win vs. Newcastle in the Premier League.

Ogden: Amorim foolishly said Fernandes was “irreplaceable” last week, following the injury that looks set to keep him out for around a month. There’s no question Bruno is a great player — and, right now, United’s best — but replacing him is just a question of deploying Mason Mount of Matheus Cunha in the No. 10 role. As for plugging a gap left by Bruno further back in midfield, that’s easy, because he can’t play that role to any great satisfaction.

United can live without Bruno Fernandes, so maybe it is time they accepted that, offloaded him and built a team rather than allowed themselves to build it around one player.

5. Lisandro Martínez is also at the 18-month mark. Does he have a future at United?

Marcotti: He has started 28 league games in 2½ years. It’s impossible to judge, frankly. Maybe you can find a home for him after the World Cup, but he’s not anyone to rely on right now, certainly not as a starter.

Ogden: This is a tricky one because his fitness record has been poor, and he’s also a liability when fit because his recklessness can lead to disciplinary issues and also gift opponents goalscoring opportunities. Martinez plays to the crowd too much, and that is a weakness in his game.

Here’s the “but” — he was outstanding in midfield against Aston Villa, so much so that he performed the No. 6 role better than any United player has for years. So maybe he has a big future in that role.

If he does, then he will earn a new deal for his value in midfield.

6. Luke Shaw is another player with 18 months left. Where does he fit?

Marcotti: He’s having the best season of his career in terms of fitness, so that’s a plus. But at this stage, I think he can really play only as a left-sided center back. Until you decide whether Amorim and his 3-4-2-1 formation are sticking around, it’s best not to do anything with him.

Ogden: Shaw doesn’t fit in. He is too slow and immobile to play on the left of a back three, and he also makes too many defensive mistakes. He can no longer get up and down the flank to play as a wingback, and his use of the ball in attacking areas is too negative and cautious. It’s time to move him on in the summer.

7. And finally, Kobbie Mainoo. With 18 months left on his deal, does he have a spot in this side moving forward?

Marcotti: He hasn’t started a single game this season, which is absurd. He’s obviously not getting on the pitch while Amorim is manager, especially if Fernandes is fit, so it’s best to loan him out and get him minutes. You can then assess where you are in the summer.

Ogden: Amorim has started to talk about altering his system and if he does that, Mainoo might just have a future at United. As it stands, he has no role in a 3-4-3 formation, but as we saw at Euro 2024 with England alongside Declan Rice, Mainoo can thrive with a more defensive player next to him.

Mainoo is still only 20, so United should persevere with him and resist the urge to offload him. Try to iron out his flaws on the training ground instead of letting another club benefit from his talents.

8. Who do you want to shift in January?

Marcotti: Other than Mainoo, the obvious one is Joshua Zirkzee. I’d imagine we’re talking January loan with a view toward a summer deal, because you’d need to get more than €28 million in fees to avoid taking a hit in the books. Finding that kind of agreement might be tough.

The counterargument to shifting Zirkzee is that Benjamn Sesko on his own leaves you somewhat shorthanded in the front three.

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Amorim jokes about injured Fernandes: ‘I don’t know if he wants my job’

Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim jokingly discusses Bruno Fernandes’ injury, including the leadership role he is taking while injured.

Ogden: “I agree on Zirkzee. He is nowhere near Premier League level, and Amorim seems to think this judging by how little he has used him. United won’t be any weaker without him if he leaves in January.

United can also raise funds — though not much — by moving in Tyrell Malacia and they would love to find a new team for Manuel Ugarte. However, they face a huge loss on the latter, so it’s unlikely that he’ll move next month.

9. Who are you bringing in during the January window?

Marcotti: There’s obviously a glaring hole in midfield, but I’m not sure United can fill it cost-effectively midseason. I’d work on finding a long-term solution in the summer and, if you feel you need a fourth option right now to get you back in the Champions League, explore the possibility of a short-term loan.

Even though English clubs are notoriously loathe to do that, United did it with Marcel Sabitzer a few years back.

Ogden: Conor Gallagher is a possibility on loan from Atletico Madrid, and there is plenty of noise surrounding Rúben Neves on loan from Al Hilal. I don’t think either are long-term solutions, but as per the Sabitzer suggestion, both would add experience and quality to the midfield if they arrived in January.