Sports
NBA insiders predict 2026: Why LeBron, trade sagas, expansion news could rock the league
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Tim Bontemps
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Brian Windhorst
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Brian Windhorst
ESPN Senior Writer
- ESPN.com NBA writer since 2010
- Covered Cleveland Cavs for seven years
- Author of two books
During 2025, the NBA gave us the shocking Luka Doncic trade in February, the Dallas Mavericks beating 1.8% draft lottery odds in May, a historic Oklahoma City Thunder title in June and a first half of a 2025-26 season filled with the emergence of new stars and contenders on the court, and major scandals off it.
What lies ahead as the calendar flips to 2026?
How many wins will the Thunder rack up in their pursuit of back-to-back titles, and can their newest rivals from San Antonio deny a dynasty? Where are trade sagas headed for the Milwaukee Bucks‘ Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis, and could each spill over into the offseason?
What’s next for potential league expansion — domestic and overseas — as commissioner Adam Silver continues to make his mark on the future of the NBA? Which rule changes could be on the horizon?
Those are just some of the storylines that coaches, executives and scouts around the league will be watching closely this year. Let’s break down the 10 biggest, starting in Los Angeles, where one of the league’s most storied franchises and its all-time great player are headed for a crossroads.
MORE: Need an NBA season refresher? Here’s what you missed in 2025-26
LeBron’s next (and possibly final) decision
Brian Windhorst: At the start of the season, Los Angeles Lakers president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka tried to be as respectful as possible when dealing with the delicate matter of LeBron James‘ future.
“We would love if LeBron’s story would be to retire as a Laker,” Pelinka said. “The first thing we want to do in terms of LeBron and his future is just give him absolute respect to choose his story with his family in terms of how many years he’s going to continue to play.”
It’s no one’s fault, but there is an inherent problem for the Lakers. James, who turned 41 on Tuesday, is 15 years older than Doncic. The superstars’ timelines do not match, and as this season has shown, playing together does not make the Lakers a championship contender in their current form. This was a byproduct of the Doncic trade falling into their laps last season. They had to do it, despite the inefficient immediate fit.
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Windhorst: LeBron’s career is defined by greatness over longevity
Brian Windhorst discusses what makes LeBron James so great on the day of his 41st birthday.
With James and Doncic collectively making $98 million (about 64% of the salary cap), it’s not a sustainable way forward. This is one reason the Lakers prioritized extending the contract of the 26-year-old Doncic and not James.
There are three rational paths for James after this season, league executives told ESPN.
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Stay with the Lakers at a significantly reduced salary. (This would be “the Dirk option,” as one executive said, referencing Dirk Nowitzki’s large pay cuts in his later years to stay with the Dallas Mavericks and help them help build out the roster).
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Leave for another team in free agency.
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Retire.
“LeBron is still averaging 20 points and shooting 50%. He can help a team win,” one head coach said. “You just have to find the right situation.”
But where? Would James want to uproot his life? Would his health hold up? Can the respectful end be achieved as Pelinka and the league office would much prefer? And what would the Lakers do with the financial flexibility if James’ $53 million salary fell off their books?
The path LeBron chooses will be a pivotal moment.
The Giannis saga enters the new year
Tim Bontemps: This was one of the big stories of 2025 — and 2024, 2023 and 2022 … you get the idea — but 2026 feels like the year the Giannis saga reaches its inflection point.
“The rubber is going to finally hit the road, ” a Western Conference executive said, “one way or the other.”
Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks ended 2025 with a home loss to the Washington Wizards. The Bucks are 11th in the Eastern Conference, after the stunning offseason moves to waive and stretch Damian Lillard‘s contract and sign free agent center Myles Turner to further appease the team’s two-time MVP.
Antetokounmpo continues to say he isn’t interested in discussing a future outside of Milwaukee at the moment. And some league insiders we spoke to agree with that prudent approach.
“If he waits until the summer [to ask out],” one Eastern Conference scout said, “he’ll have maximum leverage on what his future will be.”
Sources have reiterated that Milwaukee will spend this trade season focusing on improving the roster around Antetokounmpo before the Feb. 5 deadline. With Antetokounmpo being the consensus top player in a wide-open conference — the Bucks are just five games behind the fourth-seeded Toronto Raptors — the franchise still sees an opening for a playoff run. “They aren’t trading him in-season,” a West scout said.
But as long as Milwaukee continues to struggle, and until the trade deadline passes, all eyes around the league will be glued to the Bucks to see if that stance changes.
Potential uproar over anti-tanking and award-eligibility rules
Windhorst: “In 2026, I look forward to seeing what the league’s overreaction to its overreaction is,” a veteran East executive said.
He was poking fun but also expressing the continued annoyance at the upheaval the 2023 collective bargaining agreement has wrought on the league. Hoping to foster competitive balance, new rules aimed at restricting team building for high-spending clubs have resulted in numerous intended and unintended consequences.
As for 2026’s biggest potential change, the executive pointed to owners’ recent discussions surrounding stricter anti-tanking rules. Like with the NBA’s competitive balance, the league has achieved little regarding this challenge for years.
And it has become more than bottom-dwelling teams maneuvering for franchise-changing players at the top of the draft. In recent years, teams have been tanking to ensure they keep protected picks in the top six, eight or 10, the rights to which were often traded years before.
The deep 2026 draft class is exacerbating the situation, creating an outcry for new anti-tanking measures.
“This is only going to get louder,” another East executive said. “By the spring, I think one out of every three games we’re going to play is going to be against a team that’s tanking.”
The 65-game rule is also a topic of discussion as the league prepares for potential drama regarding end-of-season award races. James, who has been named to a league-record 21 consecutive All-NBA teams, is on the verge of being ineligible after missing the first several weeks because of a back issue.
Nikola Jokic, who has finished first or second in MVP voting each of the past five years, could be ineligible, too, depending on how long he’s sidelined because of a hyperextended left knee. Antetokounmpo is butting up against the missed-games limit, and so is Victor Wembanyama, who could miss out on a second straight Defensive Player of the Year award because of it.
If the number of superstars ineligible for awards continues to rise, expect calls for change to grow louder despite the rule delivering the league’s intended outcome.
Wembanyama and the Spurs’ rise into the league’s elite
Bontemps: In canvassing league insiders about the dominant storylines of 2026, San Antonio and its 7-foot-4 big man were near the top of their lists.
“They’re bringing the culture back that I like,” a second East executive said. “Some people might think it’s corny, but I love it when [Wembanyama] goes crazy when Chet [Holmgren] misses a free throw. They’re really going all in on rivalry and competitiveness. They will be fighting it out with Oklahoma City for the next few years.”
Beyond Wembanyama’s greatness, reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle has taken a giant leap. Dylan Harper has immediately contributed as a rookie. The young duo and De’Aaron Fox are playing off each other nicely. Center Luke Kornet has been a great free agent signing. Keldon Johnson is playing the best basketball of his career as the team’s longest-tenured player and emotional leader.
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Spurs beat Thunder for third straight time
Spurs impress again vs. the Thunder as they take down the defending champs on the road.
No one — including the Spurs — expected this quick of an ascent. Some believed the Spurs could push for a top-six seed in the West, but they did not project San Antonio entering a new calendar year No. 2 in the West with three wins over the Thunder in 12 days.
The question now becomes whether the Spurs can rip through the playoffs without prior heartbreak, which is typically needed on the path to Finals contention, and take down the defending champs this spring.
“Have they made themselves a legitimate threat to OKC? Recent events say so,” a West scout said. “I need to see it sustained a little bit. I need more than a couple months, but it’s certainly trending in that direction.”
Flagg’s next step
Windhorst: One general manager was quick to single out his most important storyline of 2026:
“The teenager in Dallas.”
Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg, who turned 19 on Dec. 21, has lived up to the hype, showing off the skills and poise that go beyond his age and experience level. This is not to downplay the 2025 draft class, but Flagg is undoubtedly looking like a future cornerstone of the league.
The combination of Flagg’s potential and the departure of former GM Nico Harrison, who staked his tenure on the acquisition of Anthony Davis, leaves plenty of questions about what will happen with the Mavs. Building around Flagg is the only choice, but how fast that happens and the fallout for the Mavs’ veterans, namely Davis, could have wide-ranging effects.
Though the possible transactions and who might make them — the Mavs are operating with co-interim GMs Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley — could create plenty of intrigue, the real story is Flagg’s growth potential.
Even instantly impactful teenagers over the years — such as James, Doncic, Wembanyama and Kevin Durant — took time to put their stamp on the league. None, for example, led their teams to the playoffs in their first two seasons. The expectations for Flagg, especially with the Mavs potentially retrofitting their roster, will likely remain measured. But that doesn’t mean he won’t draw a ton of attention in 2026.
The Thunder’s pursuit of history
Bontemps: The NBA has been defined by dynasties. That’s why the league-record seven consecutive seasons without a back-to-back champion has been so bizarre.
Oklahoma City has a chance to change that.
The Thunder, even after their recent swoon against the Spurs, are on pace for close to 70 wins after amassing 68 in 2024-25. OKC’s plus-14.2 net rating, 1.5 points better than last season, would shatter the NBA record. The Thunder are enjoying this success despite a rotating cast surrounding MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander because of injuries. All-NBA forward Jalen Williams is still rounding into form after missing the first month because of offseason wrist surgery.
“This is not a team prone to complacency,” a West scout said. “But it’s really hard to repeat, as we’ve seen.”
Several legitimate challengers loom. The Denver Nuggets pushed the Thunder to seven games in last season’s conference finals. The Houston Rockets arguably gave OKC the game of the season on opening night, and have gotten better since. Gilgeous-Alexander said the Thunder can’t say they are better than the Spurs after losing to them three times in quick succession.
That’s why, despite the gaudy résumé, the scintillating leading star and a deep, versatile roster, not everyone is convinced that the Thunder will be the first repeat champion since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors
“I don’t think they do it,” a second West executive said of the Thunder. “It’s easy to say that, but I think there’s too much scrutiny on them.”
The Clippers, and their place in the standings
Windhorst: The interest in the Clippers across the league is more off the floor than on it. The Aspiration-Kawhi Leonard investigation has been going on behind the scenes for months. The NBA is outsourcing the investigation, which is standard procedure, to New York law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, and the billable hours are mounting.
No announced timetable has been announced, but with the Clippers hosting All-Star Weekend in February, a worldwide spotlight will be on the situation if it is not resolved by then. It will be an early 2026 story, however it plays out.
Clippers owner Steve Ballmer has earned a good reputation with fellow owners, and his net worth is around $150 billion. When speaking to people in the league, these are important factors to consider.
“You have to be careful getting into a [legal] fight with someone like Ballmer. You have to have the evidence,” one rival team president said. (Ballmer and the Clippers have strongly denied salary cap circumvention allegations that came out after reporting by the “Pablo Torre Finds Out” podcast.)
The Clippers’ disastrous season has featured an ugly divorce from franchise icon and future Hall of Famer Chris Paul and a horrible run of play on the court. Even after closing 2025 with a five-game winning streak, LA remains 10 games under .500.
And the Clippers, who were expected to contend for a top-four spot in the West, picked the wrong season for a dramatic fall in the standings. Thanks to the Paul George trade of 2019, the league-leading Thunder have the Clippers’ unprotected first-round pick in June.
How trade season could impact the free agency frenzy
Bontemps: The NBA is halfway through its current CBA, and as teams continue to navigate new luxury tax aprons and team-building restrictions, what lies ahead for the 2026 trade and free agency seasons?
“I don’t see an eventful trade deadline,” the second East executive said. “But that could set up for a crazy summer.”
There are reasons to expect the fireworks this summer, not next month. Similar to Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee, Davis’ big salary ($58.5 million next season with a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28) could prove difficult for Dallas to move.
The same could be true for Trae Young with the Atlanta Hawks and Zach LaVine with the Sacramento Kings, two players making approximately $40 million, which might not garner much trade interest as teams struggle to find cap room. Meanwhile, the saga continues surrounding Jonathan Kuminga‘s future with the Golden State Warriors after last summer’s protracted contract stalemate.
“All these guys are going to be stuck where they are,” the first West executive said of the lead-up to the Feb. 5 trade deadline.
“I don’t think it will be as busy as people think, and I don’t think the available players will be that good.”
Big changes in the business of basketball
Windhorst: At the NBA Cup in Las Vegas, Silver said a decision regarding expansion would come in 2026. This got the attention of city officials in Las Vegas and Seattle, and motivated prospective bidders to get on the phone with their money managers. Expansion has been in the ether for years, with the league giving various hints about its plans.
“It sounds like 2026 is when we’re going to find out where the new teams are going to be,” a West executive said.
New teams and the new jobs, clean salary caps, a possible need for conference realignment, the strategy surrounding an expansion draft — it all creates a delicious series of possibilities across the NBA. Or not.
Over the past 18 months, it has seemed like the priority was a new league in Europe, an audacious and challenging concept that has led to disruption across the continent and into the Middle East. Which legacy European teams would jump over, who would negotiate a better deal to stay in the current Euroleague system and where would newly created teams reside? How many new jobs — for players, coaches and executives — would be created and how would it affect the NBA?
Silver has repeatedly said that NBA expansion and European expansion can happen at the same time. But stakeholders who have been working with the league on both have expressed their skepticism to ESPN. There is reason to believe Silver can achieve both endeavors, but common sense says one must be prioritized.
The NBA’s ongoing youth movement
Bontemps: With the 2025 draft class providing plenty of potential stars, and with the 2026 class receiving just as much buzz, this influx of young talent will be a fascinating storyline to follow.
The current rookie class has been unusually productive, in racking up individual stats and impacting winning.
Flagg, Harper and Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe are all playing important roles for teams either in playoff position or, in Dallas’ case, fighting to get there. The Charlotte Hornets seem to have found a foundational player in Kon Knueppel. The New Orleans Pelicans‘ Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen and the Memphis Grizzlies‘ Cedric Coward have established themselves as starters. Ryan Kalkbrenner (Charlotte), Will Richard (Golden State), Hugo Gonzalez (Boston) and Egor Demin (Brooklyn) have impressed.
And with a 2026 class — headlined by a three-player debate for No. 1 among Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer — set to enter the league in less than six months, a new generation of superstars could be taking shape.
“Which of these guys,” a third East executive pondered, “are really going to take over the NBA?”
The German word of the week in the Bundesliga ahead of Saturday’s showdown (live at 12:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN+) is not the marketing invention der Klassiker but rather die Aufholjagd (literally, “the hunt to pursue”).
There are in all honesty, very few, even here in the bustling Ruhrpott this week, who believe Borussia Dortmund are likely to make up nine points on leaders Bayern Munich. With the goal difference equation stacked in favor of the Rekordmeister, that is the challenge facing BVB with only 11 games left. But a head-to-head Gipfeltreffen (summit meeting) offers a chance for a new perspective.
Dortmund have spent much of this season under Niko Kovac defying stereotypes: showing a more stable face, grinding out wins, pressing better, reemerging as clearly the second-best team in the Bundesrepublik.
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But on Wednesday night in Bergamo, the old problems came back to haunt die Schwarz-Gelben, and the team collectively had to Lehrgeld zahlen (literally pay up as a result of being taught a painful lesson) after being eliminated by Atalanta in their knockout round playoff tie in the UEFA Champions League.
Whether Dortmund can translate those lessons — among them, don’t start a big match so passively and Gregor Kobel, don’t give the ball to the opposition with extra time looming — into something successful against a team of Bayern’s sheer quality, is another matter.
Bayern are almost certain to break the Bundesliga’s single-season goal-scoring record (they have 85 goals and need 17 more, a mere bagatelle surely?) Harry Kane requires 14 between now and mid-May to surpass Robert Lewandowski‘s 2020-21 benchmark of 41 league goals. The Englishman has registered a Doppelpack (double) in each of his past three league matches and if he stays fit, you would not bet against him becoming the most goal-rich winner of the Torjägerkanone award ever.
With Michael Olise scoring freely and more importantly, assisting others, and Luis Díaz posing significant problems for opposing sides, Bayern win most games by overwhelming and obliterating. Nobody does it better.
There is, however, a slight glass-jaw quality defensively, which has been evident since January, with only one Bundesliga clean sheet so far this calendar year.
Augsburg for example, have gone to the Allianz Arena and beaten them, Hoffenheim caused them bother even while down to 10 men, and last week Eintracht Frankfurt scored a couple of late goals that Bayern fans, anticipating an easy win, will have seen as nervig (irritating).
At the time of writing, it is unclear who will stand between the posts for the Rekordmeister. Manuel Neuer has been working all week in a bid to get back into the side after sustaining a calf muscle injury at the Weserstadion nearly two weeks ago.
However, Bayern have faith in 22-year-old understudy Jonas Urbig, who looks ever more like the future custodian. Urbig stumbled in the Augsburg game, but his performances have ranged mostly from good to excellent.
If there are any doubts about Neuer’s fitness, it would seem foolish — given the eight-point difference at the top and crunch Champions League matches ahead — to take a chance. Alphonso Davies is out for the foreseeable future with a muscle fiber injury, but with Konrad Laimer available again, Vincent Kompany has plenty of squad depth in the fullback positions with Josip Stanisic and Hiroki Ito.
It almost seems unfair to Dortmund, given the colossal task that they face on Saturday, that right wing back Julian Ryerson is suspended. The Norwegian, once viewed as an honest journeyman, has transformed himself into one of the most valuable players in Kovac’s squad.
Diligent in normal play, Ryerson’s deliveries from open or set play situations can be devilish and he recently crafted all four goals in the same game against Mainz. Yan Couto, more adventurous going forward but less secure defensively, must fulfill that role against Bayern.
At least Nico Schlotterbeck will return to anchor the Dreierkette (back three) in front of Kobel, whose 11 clean sheets top the Bundesliga goalkeeping charts. BVB will require energy and guile in abundance from Marcel Sabitzer and Felix Nmecha in midfield against the formidable duo of Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic.
Saturday is due to be another day of Verkehrschaos in Dortmund and there have been a few recently. This one is due to industrial action by the trade union, Verdi, knocking out the Stadtbahn (city train/tram service) and bus lines. Fans have been urged to walk the 40 minutes from the Stadtzentrum (city center) to the Signal Iduna Park.
Thereafter, there’s a very real danger that in 90 minutes, Dortmund’s season could effectively disappear in a puff of smoke. Already out of the Champions League and the DFB-Pokal, defeat in the Klassiker would make an Aufholjagd unthinkable.
“Is this going to be a busy cycle?”
It’s the question most asked of industry insiders around this time every year, as athletic directors, coaches, search firms and agents gear up for the college basketball coaching carousel. Normally, it’s easy to tell which direction the cycle is heading. Last year, there were five high-major programs already open when this story appeared, and 15 power-conference jobs changed hands when the carousel finally stopped spinning.
Could we match that number this season? Kansas State is the only high-major job open as things stand, with Jerome Tang’s ousting failing to jump-start an early string of firings thus far.
There are more than a dozen high-major jobs on the hot seat, but administrations are facing a similar quandary to last season: give their embattled head coach more money to build a roster or pay out the rest of that coach’s contract and start anew? Several of the coaches mentioned below have a substantial amount of money remaining on their deals, and schools will be hesitant to pay those buyouts. Word is already starting to trickle out from some schools that are instead opting to raise their men’s basketball NIL budget and giving their coach one more season to turn things around. But some schools are also hoping to raise their NIL budget — to give to a new coach.
There’s also the question of what type of hiring cycle this will be. Last year, the power-conference carousel featured a mix of lateral moves, mid-major names taking a jump, NBA assistants dropping into college and the occasional high-major assistant getting an opportunity. If more than 10 power-conference programs open up again, it will be interesting to see which bucket is the most prevalent.
To prepare you for the next two months of coaching machinations and the accompanying rumors — of which there will be many — let’s take a look at the biggest jobs and names to watch on the 2026 men’s college basketball carousel.
Jump to a section:
Jobs already open | Jobs that could open | Least a year away
Potential retirements | High-profile candidates | Who’s ready to jump up?
Jobs already open
Jerome Tang was let go earlier this month after less than four seasons in Manhattan and less than three seasons removed from an Elite Eight run. But the Wildcats were 1-11 in Big 12 play and hadn’t returned to the NCAA tournament since 2023. Whether Kansas State had enough to fire him for cause will be figured out in the future.
Meanwhile, athletic director Gene Taylor will look for Tang’s replacement. It’s still early in the search, but names such as Utah State‘s Jerrod Calhoun, Belmont‘s Casey Alexander, Northern Iowa‘s Ben Jacobson and Creighton associate head coach — and Bluejays coach-in-waiting — Alan Huss are already sprouting up. Could Taylor also look to get a sitting high-major head coach, someone like Mississippi State‘s Chris Jans?
Other jobs currently open or with an interim head coach: Air Force, Cal State Bakersfield, North Florida, San Diego, Tarleton State
Jobs that could open
Bobby Hurley’s contract is up after this season and all signs point to the Sun Devils moving on from him. They’ve been playing better basketball of late, but they’re headed for their third straight season without an NCAA tournament appearance. Overall, in Hurley’s 11 seasons at the helm, Arizona State has gone to only three NCAA tournaments (it would have been a fourth had the tournament been held in 2020) and has yet to win a game. But when the dust settles on this cycle, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hurley land on his feet closer to the Northeast.
The optimism that followed a 20-win 2023-24 season seems a long time ago. BC finished next-to-last in the ACC in 2024-25, and is trending toward a similar ending this season. In fact, coach Earl Grant has yet to lead the Eagles to a .500 finish in conference play, and they entered the week just 6-28 in ACC games over the past two seasons. He’s under contract through the 2028-29 season, and it’s one of the worst Power 4 jobs in the country, but an opening appears likely.
Thad Matta is in the fourth year of his second stint at Butler, but he has yet to lead the Bulldogs to an NCAA tournament appearance since returning. In fact, the program hasn’t gone dancing since 2018 (although it would’ve gone in 2020). There is speculation Matta, 58, could step down, and Atlanta Hawks assistant Ronald Nored, who played at Butler under Brad Stevens, has long been linked as a potential candidate.
Wes Miller might be coaching himself off of the hot seat with the Bearcats’ recent play. They entered the week on a four-game winning streak, including Saturday’s 16-point win over Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. Another couple of wins, and Cincinnati could even find itself in the midst of the bubble conversation. The Bearcats haven’t gone to the NCAA tournament since Miller was hired in 2021, and they’ve spent real money on talented rosters the past few seasons. The former UNC Greensboro coach is owed nearly $10 million if he’s fired before April 1, but that guarantee drops to less than $5 million on April 1.
Industry sources are beginning to believe Tech is trending toward opening. The athletic director who hired Stoudamire is no longer at the school, the Yellow Jackets are currently in last place in the ACC — despite having a roster with a respectable level of talent — and Damon Stoudamire is just 42-52 in three seasons. He would reportedly be owed less than $3 million if the program moved on at the end of the season.
Athletic director Verge Ausberry raised the temperature on Matt McMahon last month, telling the Baton Rouge Advocate he’d made it clear to McMahon that the Tigers needed to make the NCAA tournament, or he would be forced to “reevaluate.” After a 12-1 start to the season, the Tigers are just 2-12 in SEC play, struggling mightily with star point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. sitting out most of conference play because of a foot injury. McMahon hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament in four years since arriving at LSU, and he’s just 16-52 in the SEC during that time. He would be owed about $8 million if fired — which, along with the injury issues, could ultimately play a role in McMahon trending toward returning for another season.
Penny Hardaway appeared to have Memphis on the right track after last season’s 29-win season and 5-seed in the NCAA tournament — the Tigers’ third tourney trip in four years. But things have fallen apart this season. Hardaway had won at least 20 games in each of his previous seven seasons in charge, but the Tigers dropped to 12-15 overall after their third straight double-digit loss Sunday. He was very emotional in his postgame news conference after an earlier loss, at times fighting back tears. Whether athletic director Ed Scott wants to fire a program legend 12 months after earning a 5-seed remains to be seen — as does whether Hardaway wants to step away on his own. He signed a six-year contract extension in 2022 that runs through the 2027-28 season.
It’s only two years into Jake Diebler’s tenure in Columbus, but the Buckeyes are squarely on the cutline for the NCAA tournament. If they don’t hear their name on Selection Sunday, that will be two years without a tournament appearance for Diebler, four years for the program as a whole. The latest word out of Columbus is that he’s probably safe for another season, but that could depend on what happens over the next three weeks. The school would be on the hook for just over $3 million.
Porter Moser led the Sooners on a late-season surge last season that staved off hot seat pressure, but the program entered this week with losses in 11 of its past 13 games. A roster built via the transfer portal last offseason hasn’t clicked, and OU is now going to miss the NCAA tournament for a fourth time in five seasons. New athletic director Roger Denny, who was hired in late January, will face a critical decision within weeks of his arrival. Moser has more than $5 million left on his deal.
It has been an inconsistent eight seasons in Pittsburgh for Jeff Capel. The Panthers struggled in his first four seasons, then turned things around with 46 wins and one NCAA tournament appearance over the next two (2022-23 and 2023-24). But they took a step back last season, and are now hovering near last place in the ACC, sitting at 10-17 overall and 3-11 in league play. In 2024, Capel signed a contract extension through the 2029-30 season, and would be owed eight figures if fired.
Kim English showed considerable promise in Year 1 (2023-24), leading the Friars to 21 wins and within reach of the NCAA tournament. But he has failed to build off that first year, entering this week with a 24-35 (11-25 Big East) record over the past two seasons despite spending substantial money to build those rosters. Providence gave English a contract extension after that first season, signing him through 2029-30. He would be owed a significant amount of money if fired.
It simply hasn’t quite clicked for Red Autry since he took over for Hall of Famer Jim Boeheim in 2023. He won 20 games in Year 1, then struggled last season. After compiling an impressive on-paper roster with enough talent to compete in the ACC, Syracuse is now just 6-9 in conference play. The Orange made an attempt at bubble consideration after beating Cal and SMU earlier this month, but a pair of blowout losses to Duke and North Carolina probably ended those hopes. One variable to consider: athletic director John Wildhack recently announced he would be retiring this summer.
Probably at least a year away
In reality, Ed Cooley is arguably the safest name on this list. He’s only three years into a long-term contract that reportedly pays him nearly $6 million a season, and the Hoyas have poured plenty of resources into helping him be the coach to return them to their glory days. It hasn’t gone well thus far, with Cooley entering the week with a 15-41 record in Big East play since taking over in the District. But he’ll get at least another season to turn it around.
Hubert Davis entered the season on one of the hotter seats in college basketball, but the Tar Heels are now ranked in the top 20 and are a second-weekend threat with Caleb Wilson expected to return from a hand injury. Barring a catastrophic finish to the season, Davis isn’t at risk of losing his job. He signed a contract extension in December 2024 that keeps him in Chapel Hill through the 2029-30 season, and he would be owed around $5 million if Carolina moved on. A couple of NCAA tournament wins might also ease some of the perceived pressure from the fan base, though this season’s performance, combined with a top-10 recruiting class coming in next season, cools off his seat moving forward.
Three seasons into his tenure in South Bend, Micah Shrewsberry has yet to finish above .500 overall, or in the ACC. The 2025-26 season has been his worst showing, with the Fighting Irish entering the week just 3-11 in conference play. There’s no appetite to make an immediate move, sources told ESPN, though, and Shrewsberry is still signed through the 2029-30 season.
Mike Rhoades arrived in State College in 2023 with three NCAA tournament trips in his previous five seasons at VCU. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions haven’t come close to the tournament during his three seasons in the Big Ten. They’re last in the conference this season, with a 2-15 record. When Rhoades was hired, he signed a seven-year contract with nearly $26 million guaranteed. There’s still $15.4 million remaining on it.
Since going to back-to-back NCAA tournaments in 2021 and 2022, it has been a steady downhill turn for Steve Pikiell and the Scarlet Knights. Despite having two top-five NBA draft picks last season, Rutgers finished 15-17 overall. It entered this week 11-16 overall and 4-12 in the Big Ten. Pikiell is owed an enormous amount of money, though, with a fully guaranteed deal through the 2030-31 season and more than $20 million left on his contract.
After struggling in Year 1 in Columbia, Lamont Paris guided the Gamecocks to a 26-win season in 2023-24, earning a 6-seed in the NCAA tournament and winning SEC Coach of the Year. But the Gamecocks haven’t come close to sustaining that momentum, entering the week with a 24-35 (5-27 SEC) record over the past two seasons. But it sounds as if the school plans to increase Paris’ NIL budget, in the hope that he will turn things around next season. Paris signed a six-year, $26 million extension through 2029-30, and there’s just over $12 million remaining.
The Hokies entered the week with bubble hopes still alive, sitting at 18-10 overall (7-8 ACC) with games at North Carolina and Virginia remaining that could boost their tournament résumé. Regardless of those results, it appears Mike Young is safe for another season — after which his last contract extension ends. Tech has missed the past three NCAA tournaments after making back-to-back appearances in 2021 and 2022.
The latest intel out of Winston-Salem points to Steve Forbes returning to the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is poised to miss the NCAA tournament for a sixth straight season, entering the week with a 14-13 overall record (5-9 ACC) — despite the fact that Forbes has won at least 19 games in four of his six seasons. Forbes, who signed a long-term extension in 2022 on a contract that had already run through 2026, also has a strong relationship with athletic director John Currie.
It’s only Year 2 for Danny Sprinkle with the Huskies, but things are already starting to heat up in Seattle. The program has spent significant money on Sprinkle’s rosters, but is just 26-32 overall in those two seasons, including 9-27 in Big Ten play. When Sprinkle was hired in March 2024, he’d signed a six-year, $22.1 million contract.
Others to watch: UAlbany, Ball State, The Citadel, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Fullerton, Gardner-Webb, Georgia State, Holy Cross, Little Rock, Niagara, Northern Illinois, Rider, Sacred Heart, Southern Indiana, Tennessee Tech, UNC Greensboro, UTEP, Weber State, Western Michigan
Potential retirements to monitor
The obvious place to start is Creighton’s Greg McDermott, who hired Alan Huss last season from High Point to be his associate head coach and coach-in-waiting. There has been no definitive timeline given by McDermott, although the change could happen as soon as after this season.
While speculation has surrounded Colorado’s Tad Boyle and Oregon’s Dana Altman seemingly every season, both are likely to be back in their positions for the 2026-27 campaign, sources told ESPN. The Buffaloes have struggled since moving to the Big 12, sitting at 29-33 (8-26 Big 12) in two seasons, but there have been no significant retirement discussions at Colorado, as the conversations have been focused on retaining the Buffaloes’ young core for next season. Altman is in the midst of his worst season since going 7-19 at Creighton in 1994-95, with the Ducks currently 10-17 (3-13 Big Ten). Before this season, he had won at least 20 games in 15 straight seasons and went to the past two NCAA tournaments. But after a season beset by injuries, there’s no expectation for any change or a retirement. Oregon also remains fully committed to the longtime head coach.
In the elite coaches tier, there’s annual speculation about Tennessee’s Rick Barnes, Gonzaga‘s Mark Few, Houston’s Kelvin Sampson, Kansas’ Bill Self and Michigan State‘s Tom Izzo — but all five programs are ranked in the top 20 and none of the coaches seem overly eager to step away. It wouldn’t be a shock if one of them did, but it’s impossible to predict at this point.
Dayton’s Anthony Grant is also rumored to be mulling a potential retirement. The Flyers entered the week tied for third in the Atlantic 10, but they have gone to only one NCAA tournament since he took over in 2017. It should be noted that the Flyers were tracking for a 1-seed in 2020 before the NCAA tournament was canceled. Grant was also recently named the head coach of the USA Basketball men’s U18 national team for this summer; does that make him more likely to stay?
High-profile candidates to keep an eye on
T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State
Otzelberger has established himself as one of the elite coaches in college basketball, and he signed a new contract in December 2024 with a restructured buyout that makes him potentially attainable. If Ohio State were to open, there’s reason to believe the Buckeyes would look to gauge Otzelberger’s interest. That said, he’s happy in Ames, with no signs of him itching to leave, and he has a great relationship with Cyclones athletic director Jamie Pollard.
Chris Jans, Mississippi State
After going to the NCAA tournament in each of his first three seasons in Starkville, Jans and the Bulldogs are limping toward a sub-.500 finish this season. Mississippi State is considered one of the worst jobs in the SEC, so it’s conceivable he could look to jump to another high-major program with the right fit.
Will Wade, NC State
Wade has quickly turned around NC State in Year 1, as promised, with the Wolfpack trending toward wearing home jerseys in the first round of the NCAA tournament. But there is growing speculation that LSU would be potentially interested in a reunion, should the Tigers move on from Matt McMahon. Whether Wade would leave NC State after one season is a different story. He previously led LSU to three NCAA tournaments and an SEC title before being fired in 2022 following an NCAA investigation.
Porter Moser, Oklahoma
It’s true, we had Moser on the hot seat earlier, but he also has a big enough name and résumé to land on his feet at a reasonably strong job — whether it’s by leaving on his own or being let go. He has a Final Four and Sweet 16 on his ledger from his time at Loyola Chicago.
Chris Beard, Ole Miss
Beard is in the same category as Jans: a coach who could look to bounce to a job with a bigger budget if something becomes available. The Rebels are struggling mightily this season, sitting only one game out of last place in the SEC at 3-11 (11-16 overall). But Beard did lead Ole Miss to the Sweet 16 last season.
Randy Bennett, Saint Mary’s
Bennett has never shown interest in leaving Saint Mary’s, despite taking the Gaels to 11 NCAA tournament appearances since arriving in Moraga in 2001. But with Arizona State potentially opening, could Bennett — an Arizona native — find that it’s time to make the jump, especially with Gonzaga leaving the WCC?
Shaheen Holloway, Seton Hall
Holloway has guided the Pirates to one of the biggest single-season improvements in the country in 2025-26, going from 7-25 last season to 19-9 entering the week. They’re still trending toward missing the NCAA tournament, but they were picked last in the Big East and their NIL pales in comparison to that of the rest of the conference. Seton Hall hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament under Holloway but did win the NIT in 2024.
Mark Byington, Vanderbilt
There’s no sign Byington has interest in leaving Vanderbilt, but of the coaches at the top 20 schools, he is one of the few who could still potentially make a jump up. He has done one of the best jobs in the country this season, guiding the Commodores to a 16-0 start and a second straight NCAA tournament appearance. But Vanderbilt also checks a lot of boxes for Byington, and there doesn’t appear to be anything in line to open that would be a clear step up. There’s also a sizable buyout to get him out of Nashville.
Richard Pitino, Xavier
Rumors connecting Pitino to Providence have been circulating for several weeks, although it’s difficult to see the partnership coming to fruition. His buyout at Xavier is well into eight figures, and Providence would already have to pay close to $10 million to fire Kim English. With a much lower buyout figure? Perhaps it’s possible. But paying the largest buyout on record to lure a coach in the same league — who entered the week with the same 5-11 Big East record as the potential outgoing coach — doesn’t seem viable.
Kevin Keatts
Keatts was fired by NC State last season, just one year after leading the Wolfpack to the Final Four. He could get back into the sport after only one season out, as his résumé is better than those of other potential candidates this cycle. In addition to the Final Four, Keatts has made five NCAA tournament appearances and won two CAA titles at UNC Wilmington.
Who’s ready to make the jump?
Josh Schertz, Saint Louis
After being one of the hottest names on the coaching carousel only two years ago at Indiana State, Schertz is again the crown jewel of the coaching cycle. He has Saint Louis at 25-2 entering the week, ranked inside the top 25 nationally and on track for a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday. The only thing missing from his résumé is an NCAA tournament appearance — something that will change this season. It’s worth noting Schertz isn’t eager to jump at just any high-major job; he can afford to be selective, or even wait until next year.
Jerrod Calhoun, Utah State
The latest to come off the Utah State high-major coach assembly line, Calhoun has the Aggies atop the Mountain West one year after leading them to the NCAA tournament in his first season in Logan. He’s likely to be high on the list of candidates for any Midwest job, given his Ohio roots. He also has high-major experience from his time as an assistant coach at West Virginia. Calhoun’s new contract, which he signed last March, does include a buyout of more than $3 million.
Casey Alexander, Belmont
Alexander has done a tremendous job this season, taking a Belmont team picked fifth in the Missouri Valley to an outright regular-season title. The Bruins have yet to go to an NCAA tournament since hiring Alexander from Lipscomb in 2019 (though they did win the Ohio Valley tournament in 2020), but will be the favorites to cut down the nets at Arch Madness this season. Alexander has won at least 20 games in each of his past 10 seasons as head coach.
Travis Steele, Miami (Ohio)
Steele is at the helm of the last unbeaten team in men’s college basketball. The topic of a new contract has also already been publicly discussed, with Steele acknowledging over the weekend that the school has offered him a contract extension — and that he has yet to sign it. He has the RedHawks on track for the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007, and also won 25 games last season. He failed to make the NCAA tournament during his four seasons at Xavier in 2019-22 but could soon get a second chance at the high-major level.
Eric Olen, New Mexico
Olen is in his first season at New Mexico, with the Lobos right on the cutline for the NCAA tournament despite being picked fifth in the preseason Mountain West poll. Last season, he led UC San Diego to 30 wins and an NCAA tournament appearance, and was a consistent winner with the Toreros when they were still in Division II.
Bryan Hodgson, South Florida
Hodgson, a former Alabama assistant coach under Nate Oats, has now shown the ability to quickly turn around programs at two different schools. He won 45 games in two seasons at Arkansas State, including a share of the Sun Belt regular-season title last year, and now has South Florida atop the American in Year 1.
Takayo Siddle, UNC Wilmington
Since a 7-10 record in Wilmington during the COVID-19 2020-21 campaign, Siddle has become one of the most consistently successful mid-major coaches in the country. He has won at least 21 games in each of the past five seasons, leading the Seahawks to the 2022 CAA regular-season title and a 2025 NCAA tournament appearance. This season, UNCW sits in first place in the CAA, and it could be the right time for Siddle to make a jump.
Joe Gallo, Merrimack
Gallo and the Warriors won the outright MAAC regular-season championship, with room to spare, this season, holding a four-game lead with two games to go. It’s Gallo’s fourth regular-season title in seven years at the Division I level, and he has done it in two different conferences. Over the past four seasons — two in the NEC and two in the MAAC — Gallo is 55-15 in conference play. Merrimack also won the NEC tournament in 2023, but was then ineligible for the NCAA tournament. Expect Gallo to be involved in the conversation for bigger jobs in the Northeast.
Tony Skinn, George Mason
A couple of weeks ago, Skinn might have been higher up on this list, alongside Schertz and Calhoun. But the Patriots have fallen apart down the stretch and currently sit third in the Atlantic 10. He did lead Mason to a share of the conference regular-season title last season and has won 68 games in three seasons as a head coach, but he has yet to get to the NCAA tournament. He also has high-major experience from his time as an assistant at Maryland, Ohio State and Seton Hall.
John Groce, Akron
Groce has been one of the most consistent mid-major coaches in the country over the last handful of years, going to three NCAA tournaments in four years and winning the MAC regular-season title last year. The Zips are currently 13-1 in league play, their lone loss coming by three points at unbeaten Miami (Ohio). Groce spent five seasons as Illinois’ head coach from 2012 to 2017, winning 20 games three times but taking the Illini to only one NCAA tournament. With the Midwest seeming like the epicenter of this year’s carousel, he could find himself in the mix for a spot.
Others to watch: Dustin Kerns, App State; Chris Mack, Charleston; Matt Langel, Colgate; Brooks Savage, East Tennessee State; Bob Richey, Furman; Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon; Rob Senderoff, Kent State; Ritchie McKay, Liberty; Rod Strickland, Long Island University; Robert Jones, Norfolk State; Bob Richman, North Dakota State; Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa; Andy Toole, Robert Morris; Bashir Mason, Saint Peter’s; Chris Mudge, Sam Houston; Herb Sendek, Santa Clara; Richie Riley, South Alabama; Brad Korn, Southeast Missouri State; Matt Braeuer, Stephen F. Austin; Scott Cross, Troy; Eric Konkol, Tulsa; Andy Kennedy, UAB; Russell Turner, UC Irvine; James Jones, Yale
ESPN’s Pete Thamel contributed to this report.
For the third consecutive year, the Miami Dolphins ranked first in the NFL Players Association annual report cards, according to survey results obtained by ESPN. The Minnesota Vikings finished second, followed by the Washington Commanders in third.
“Players consistently describe the organization as ‘the best in the NFL,'” the NFLPA survey wrote about the Dolphins.
The Pittsburgh Steelers finished last for the first time in the four-year history of the union’s survey. Last year, the Steelers ranked 28th. The Arizona Cardinals finished 31st in the 2026 survey, after a last-place finish in 2025, and the Cleveland Browns finished in 30th, the same as in 2025.
The NFLPA is not making the report cards public this year after a grievance filed by the NFL, which said the survey violated the collective bargaining agreement. Earlier this month, an arbitrator agreed with the league, saying the report cards violated the CBA by “disparaging NFL clubs and individuals.” The NFLPA said it would continue to collect responses for report cards even if it can’t publish them.
A spokesperson for the NFLPA declined to comment.
An NFL spokesperson also declined to comment, saying that, as in previous years, the league had no knowledge of the survey. The league sent a memo to all teams later Thursday, saying that, as the arbitration hearing showed, the survey results are “neither reliable nor scientifically valid.”
“… We continue to recommend that clubs prioritize feedback and information provided directly by their own players rather than relying on the NFLPA’s agenda-driven exercise,” the league said in the memo, a copy of which was obtained by ESPN. “We further recommend that Clubs refrain from commenting or engaging publicly on the alleged survey and Report Card results.”
The report cards grade franchises from A-plus to F-minus on everything from ownership to treatment of families. Per the survey results obtained by ESPN, this year’s report cards are based on responses from 1,759 players. All players who were on a 2025 roster at the time of the survey were eligible to participate, and it was conducted from Nov. 2 to Dec. 11.
The Steelers received low grades in several categories, according to the results obtained by ESPN.
“[Steelers owner] Art Rooney ranks last in the league for willingness to invest in facilities, a trend reflected in the Steelers’ poor facility ratings across the board,” according to the survey.
In a new category added this year, the Steelers had the lowest-rated home field in the league “by a wide margin.”
“Players cite inadequate maintenance and excessive wear from hosting local college and high school games,” according to the survey. “Players across the league note the poor condition of the field and emphasize the need for investment to bring it up to standard.”
The Steelers’ locker room was graded an F. Players reported that it “has only five bathroom stalls for the entire team.”
Per the survey, players report that the Steelers’ training room lacks updated recovery technology and “modalities.” Pittsburgh’s strength coaches ranked last in the NFL, though the training staff ranked first.
“We are not going to comment on a report that we have not seen in its entirety,” Steelers senior director of communications Burt Lauten told ESPN.
A spokesperson for the Cardinals declined to comment.
Miami ranked fourth in home field because of the natural grass at Hard Rock Stadium, “with players highlighting their preference for quality grass fields like this one,” the survey said.
Former Miami coach Mike McDaniel’s grade dropped from an A-plus to a B. “Players identify scheduling, communication, and leadership as key areas for head coaching improvement, presenting an opportunity for [new head coach Jeff] Hafley next season,” the survey said.
Last year, 1,695 players leaguewide responded to the survey. The Vikings and Dolphins earned the highest marks for workplace environment, with owners Zygi Wilf of the Vikings, Stephen Ross of the Dolphins and Arthur Blank of the Atlanta Falcons receiving A-plus grades.
Before filing its grievance in November, the NFL had twice asked the union to suspend the survey, once in 2024 and a second time in June of this year — and the NFLPA declined.
At the NFL league meeting in March 2025, New York Jets chairman Woody Johnson — who along with Art Rooney of the Steelers, Robert Kraft of the New England Patriots, Michael Bidwill of the Cardinals and David Tepper of the Carolina Panthers received ownership grades of D or worse in 2025 — called the survey “totally bogus” and hinted that it violated the CBA.
Johnson said he took issue with “how they collected the information [and] who they collected it from. [It] was supposed to be, according to the agreement we have with the league. It’s supposed to be a process [where] we have representatives, and they have representatives, so we know that it’s an honest survey.
“And that was violated, in my opinion. I’m going to leave it at that, but I think there are a lot of owners that looked at that survey and said this is not fair, it’s not balanced, it’s not every player, it’s not even representative of the players.”
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