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Predicting men’s college basketball conference winners — and their biggest threats

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Predicting men’s college basketball conference winners — and their biggest threats


The turning of the calendar used to mark the demarcation between nonconference and conference play. With the expansion of conference size and a corresponding increase in the number of conference games, that has changed in some leagues — most notably the Big Ten and Big East, where the majority of teams have already played four or five games against league opponents.

But, for the most part, the meat and potatoes of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season has just gotten underway, with contenders looking to separate themselves from pretenders over the next couple of weeks.

Fortunately, teams are testing themselves more and more in nonconference play than in years past, so we have a better idea of which teams are for real and which could stumble against stiffer competition. According to ESPN Research, a record-setting 45 games between ranked opponents took place in the first two months of the season.

As we enter the final two months before Selection Sunday, how would we handicap the conference races in each of the power conferences? Let’s run through the favorites to win each of the five high-major conferences based on ESPN’s BPI projections — and their biggest threats.

Jump to: ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC

ACC

Favorite: Duke Blue Devils (91.5%)

Despite being comfortably the best team in the ACC last season, the Blue Devils needed to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill on the final day of the regular season to clinch the outright title. The bottom half of the league was so poor that the top three teams — Duke, Clemson and Louisville — were able to stockpile wins and compile gaudy records, taking it down to the wire for the conference crown.

Duke isn’t as good as it was last season, but it could win the conference by more games than one because of the parity and improved depth across the ACC. BPI gives the Blue Devils by far the best chance of winning the regular-season title, after Jon Scheyer’s club took a big step by winning at Louisville on Tuesday.

Duke has the most productive player in college basketball in Cameron Boozer, a slew of perimeter shotmakers surrounding him, depth and a blossoming point guard in Caleb Foster. The Blue Devils might not be national title favorites like a year ago, but they’re still the class of the ACC.


Biggest threats

North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
Virginia Cavaliers

Part of the reason Duke’s status as league favorite is so strong is the likely next three teams in the pecking order have already lost ACC games. North Carolina lost by 14 at SMU on Saturday, Louisville has dropped two in a row with Mikel Brown Jr. sidelined, and Virginia fell in three overtimes to Virginia Tech on New Year’s Eve.

Carolina looked like the biggest threat to Duke prior to the SMU loss; Caleb Wilson has been sensational and he and Henri Veesaar form one of the more potent frontcourt duos in the country. Louisville just isn’t the same without Brown, and it’s unclear when he will be back in the fold. At full strength, the Cardinals’ backcourt and elite shooting ability give them a chance against anyone in America.

Virginia is the sleeper. Ryan Odom’s team is deep, experienced, big and efficient on the offensive end. The Cavaliers face Duke, Carolina and Louisville only once each, but they have to play the Blue Devils and Cardinals on the road.

And although Clemson is 3-0 in ACC play with the second-best chance to win the league, according to BPI, the Tigers likely lack the offensive firepower to keep pace and don’t get either Duke or Carolina at Littlejohn Coliseum.

Big East

Favorite: UConn Huskies (88.1%)

In terms of depth, the Big East is the worst of the five high-major conferences this season, but UConn is a clear-cut national title contender and the heavy favorite to win the regular-season title. If anything, BPI’s 88.1% projection is arguably a low estimate.

The Huskies have just one loss on the season: back in mid-November against Arizona, when Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins were both sidelined with injuries. Prior to Wednesday’s overtime win over Providence, UConn had barely been tested in conference play, winning its first four games by an average of 19.0 points. The Huskies are an elite defensive unit, ranking fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and in the top 10 for both 2-point defense and 3-point defense.

In Mullins, Solo Ball and Alex Karaban, Dan Hurley has three high-level shotmakers, and Reed is a double-double machine and the anchor down low.


Biggest threats

Likely none, but …

There doesn’t seem to be a team consistent enough to threaten UConn over the course of a full 20-game Big East schedule. St. John’s was expected to go toe-to-toe with the Huskies after winning the regular-season championship last season, but the Red Storm already suffered a home loss to Providence and have had point guard and defensive issues all season.

Villanova and Seton Hall have been the surprise packages so far this season, with the Wildcats having the edge due to their road win over the Pirates just before Christmas. Over the next couple of weeks, Villanova has road games at Marquette and Providence and will play both St. John’s and UConn — if the Wildcats come out the other side within a game of the Huskies, we can revisit their title bona fides. A home loss to Creighton on Wednesday takes some of the steam out of Kevin Willard’s team, though. And Seton Hall has the aforementioned home loss to Nova plus needed a last-second putback to beat Creighton at home, though the Pirates do get UConn at home next Tuesday to make a statement.

Had Creighton not blown a big second-half lead at Seton Hall, the Bluejays might have loomed as a bigger threat.

Big Ten

Favorite: Michigan Wolverines (67.5%)

Analytically, Michigan is the best team in the country, ranking No. 1 at KenPom, in BPI and at BartTorvik.com. The Wolverines are No. 1 in the NET and lead the country in scoring margin, with Tuesday’s two-point win over Penn State only the second time they have failed to win by at least 25 points since Nov. 14.

Dusty May has the nation’s best defense, a physically dominant group that simply overpowers teams with its size, length and ability to get up and down the floor. Yaxel Lendeborg is an All-American, and Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara have been among the most efficient frontcourt players in the country at both ends of the floor. The Wolverines’ performance at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas was one of the best three-game stretches we’ve ever seen in the regular season.

With all that said, BPI gives them only a 67.5% chance to win the Big Ten regular-season title — with Purdue their biggest competition.


Biggest threat

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue entered the season ranked No. 1 in preseason polls, with National Player of the Year favorite Braden Smith and All-American Trey Kaufman-Renn forming the best inside-outside combo in the country on paper. A win at Alabama and a 30-point victory over Texas Tech seemed to cement Matt Painter’s team as a national championship favorite, but a stunning 23-point loss to Iowa State on Dec. 6 dropped the Boilermakers down a tier.

They’re still ranked in the top six in all efficiency-based metrics and have the best offense in the country, so don’t count them out. Moreover, they get Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois all in West Lafayette, Indiana.

Nebraska has been the surprise of the Big Ten. Illinois and Michigan State are threats to make deep runs in March, but with each team having already lost to the Cornhuskers, they’re behind the chasing pack.

Big 12

Favorite: Arizona Wildcats (46.2%)

The most loaded conference title race belongs to the Big 12, with four teams — Arizona, Iowa State, Houston and BYU — all ranked in the top 10 nationally, with a combined 58-2 record.

With Arizona ranked No. 1 in the latest AP Top 25 and edging ahead of Iowa State in both KenPom and the BPI, the Wildcats are the narrow favorites. Unsurprisingly, BPI gives them less than a 50% chance to end the season as the regular-season champs, coming in at 46.2% with Iowa State just behind at 43.2%.

Arizona owns the best résumé in the country — No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record — with wins over UConn, Florida, Alabama, UCLA, Auburn and San Diego State. The first four of those wins came away from home, too. The Wildcats are ranked inside the top 10 at both ends of the floor and have incredible depth and balance up front and in the backcourt.

It’s worth noting that Tommy Lloyd’s team faces Iowa State only once, and that game is in Tucson. The Wildcats play Houston on the road and have BYU both home and away.


Biggest threats

Iowa State Cyclones
Houston Cougars
BYU Cougars

Iowa State is one of just six unbeaten teams left in college basketball, and the Cyclones own perhaps the most impressive singular win of the season, going to West Lafayette and beating then-undefeated Purdue by 23 points. They also went 3-0 at the Players Era Festival and held serve against in-state rival Iowa. Joshua Jefferson has been a breakout star and is playing like an All-American, Milan Momcilovic has a case as the best shooter in the country, and Tamin Lipsey has been playing like Tamin Lipsey.

Houston hasn’t quite hit its stride yet, but the Cougars are still 14-1 with a top-10 defense. It’s impossible to count out a Kelvin Sampson-coached team that has one of the best backcourts in the country in star freshman Kingston Flemings and veterans Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp. Houston plays each of the other three top contenders once apiece but faces BYU and Iowa State on the road.

BYU has as talented and explosive a trio as there is in college basketball in AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders and Robert Wright III. All three can take over a game, and Dybantsa is a viable threat to Cameron Boozer in the National Player of the Year race. Arizona, Houston and Iowa State all have to go to the Marriott Center.

SEC

Favorite: Vanderbilt Commodores (52.9%)

The pecking order is likely to shift the most in the SEC over the next couple of months, but after Vanderbilt’s 96-90 win over Alabama on Wednesday, the Commodores — picked 11th in the preseason conference poll — have established themselves as the favorites moving forward.

Mark Byington’s team has been a metrics darling all season, opening the season ranked in the top 20 at KenPom and now in the top five at both KenPom and BartTorvik.com. Wednesday’s win was Vandy’s first statement win of the season, to go along with victories over Saint Mary’s, SMU and UCF. Tyler Tanner is playing like a legitimate All-American, and Duke Miles has been one of the best transfer portal pickups in the country. The Commodores are a terrific offensive team, ranking in the top 10 in scoring offense and in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency.

In terms of schedule, it’s worth noting they face Florida only once and it’s in Nashville. They play Tennessee home and away and have to go to Arkansas.


Biggest threats

Florida Gators
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers

In any given week, the biggest threat to Vanderbilt’s status seemingly changes two or three times. Most metrics, including BPI, point to Florida as the second-best team in the SEC — but the Gators opened SEC play with a loss at Missouri and have been inconsistent against good teams all season. The reigning national champs have an elite frontcourt, but the portal backcourt of Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee is still a work in progress.

There might not be a guard in college basketball playing better than Darius Acuff Jr. right now, and as a result, Arkansas looks like the real deal. The Razorbacks also opened SEC play with a win over Tennessee and will host Vanderbilt later this month.

Alabama has a terrific offense and one of the most explosive players in the country in Labaron Philon Jr., but the defense has been poor, allowing an average of 93.5 points in losses to Purdue, Gonzaga, Arizona and Vanderbilt.

Tennessee seems like a stretch, despite BPI giving the Vols a 16.3% chance of winning the league. They are 4-4 in their past eight games and still have to go to Florida and Alabama in the next two weeks.



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Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels have sparked Patriots’ playoff resurgence

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Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels have sparked Patriots’ playoff resurgence


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — When Drake Maye met Josh McDaniels for the first time, they were in different countries.

Maye had just proposed to his longtime girlfriend, Ann Michael Hudson, on the sandy beaches of Mexico. McDaniels was moving back into a familiar space as New England Patriots offensive coordinator for the third time in his NFL coaching career.

“He was in the office, obviously, like he always is, probably watching film or something,” Maye recalled of the January video call with a smile.

“It had nothing to do with football, that’s what I remember,” McDaniels said.

It wouldn’t be about football for a while. Before Maye and McDaniels shared X’s and O’s that have made them one of the NFL’s most explosive QB-coordinator duos this season, they played pickleball together and dined at McDaniels’ home, with quarterbacks coach Ashton Grant joining them. Maye and Ann Michael later bought a home around the corner from McDaniels.

“Gaining that trust and getting to know who they were as people was the first thing,” said Grant, who is 30. He has had the most intimate behind-the-scenes viewpoint of how Maye, 23, and McDaniels, 49, have united.

Who won those pickleball games remains top secret. Nonetheless, the “thwack!” was symbolic in the sense they had both taken hits and were motivated, after being on divergent paths last season, to reignite their careers together. Maye was coming off a 4-13 season as a rookie that led to a coaching change in New England, and McDaniels found his “peace and joy” before returning to the NFL for the first time since being fired as Las Vegas Raiders head coach in October 2023.

The AFC East-division champion Patriots host the Los Angeles Chargers in the first round of the AFC playoffs on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, NBC) after completing a 14-3 regular season under coach Mike Vrabel, which ties the 1999 Indianapolis Colts and 2008 Miami Dolphins for the best turnaround in NFL history.

There are myriad reasons sparking the once-proud franchise’s resurgence. One of the most important began on that video call.

“I was just looking forward to meeting him and thankful to get the opportunity to play for him,” Maye said of his mindset at the time. “Obviously, I heard about him, saw all the old Patriot tapes and old videos, and what he’s done here as a coordinator before. It’s come true of what I thought.”

McDaniels’ comeback

THERE WERE NO guarantees McDaniels would be back in the NFL in 2025. He wasn’t going to force it after doing important self-improvement work in his first season out of the league since being hired by Bill Belichick in 2001 as a Patriots coaching assistant.

He fell in love with pickleball. Lost weight. Drove his youngest daughters, Livi and Neenah, to school. Watched his son, Jack, play football at John Carroll University, his alma mater. Took his daughter Maddie on college visits.

Coaching can be a rewarding profession, but also stress-filled, especially when losses outnumber wins as they did in Las Vegas.

“The first thing I was doing was trying to get healthy,” McDaniels said of his 14 months out of the NFL. “You put yourself on the back burner a little bit when you’re doing this thing, grinding at both ends.”

McDaniels and his wife, Laura, had kept their home in suburban Boston when McDaniels was hired as Raiders head coach in January 2022. So that brought him back to Massachusetts in November 2023 when his tenure ended with a 9-16 record. A lot of things would have had to fall in place for him to leave his family for another NFL job, even though his acumen as one of the NFL’s top playcallers made him a candidate for vacant offensive coordinator jobs. He previously guided the Patriots to eight top-10 rankings in his 13 seasons, including the No. 1 ranking in 2007, 2012 and 2017 with quarterback Tom Brady.

Then the unexpected unfolded in New England.

Jerod Mayo, whom owner Robert Kraft had identified years earlier as his choice to succeed Bill Belichick, was fired after one season. Kraft took the blame for putting Mayo in an unwinnable situation, before quickly hiring Mike Vrabel as the franchise’s 16th head coach.

“By this time last year, I had a peace and joy about myself … I re-gained it and had a different perspective on life and what I was looking for.”

McDaniels said on the “Schrager Hour” with ESPN’s Peter Schrager

As Vrabel began putting a staff together, he started with the core of coaches who had been with him in Tennessee. He had never coached with McDaniels before but had a connection with him from his playing career in New England; McDaniels, then a coaching assistant, picked Vrabel up from the airport on his free agent visit in 2001.

McDaniels was among a handful of candidates interviewed for offensive coordinator — a group including former Panthers and Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown — and Vrabel ultimately hired them both with McDaniels as OC and Brown as tight ends coach/passing game coordinator.

McDaniels’ affinity for the Patriots, which includes close ties with owner Robert Kraft, was among the reasons the timing was right for his return to coaching. So too was the chance to work under Vrabel, an already-proven head coach with whom he had a prior connection and admiration for his vision of installing a winning culture.

“Beyond grateful,” McDaniels said. “This has been a really special place in my professional career, but not just that, in my personal life. My kids, my wife, my family has really grown up and been raised here in New England. To have this opportunity to be with Mike in this place, and to be around this group of people every day, there’s a lot of joy in it.”

Players have seen it firsthand, noting how often McDaniels talks about Laura and their kids.

“Sometimes he’ll FaceTime with the fam, we’re in the room, and everyone will say hello,” third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito said.

“It seems like it’s been good to him,” added veteran No. 2 quarterback Joshua Dobbs. “Watching him after a game, he’s with his daughters and they have their friends and they’re hanging out. His son has been able to come to practice. I can imagine a unique sense of peace — doing what you love, close to the people you love, and they get to see you do it from the convenience of your own home and not a rental. There’s a lot that goes into it outside the [team] complex.”

Maye’s continued development

WHEN THE PATRIOTS mapped out a plan for Maye’s hopeful development in his second NFL season, Vrabel essentially said it had two parallel tracks. The first: Leadership, command and connection that resonates throughout the entire team. Then, mastery of an offense coordinated by McDaniels and supported by a talented, experienced staff of assistants. Putting those together would make Maye, in Vrabel’s view, the “conductor” of the Patriots.

Vrabel, as the culture-setting head coach, has worked closely with Maye on the first part — especially in voluntary spring practices and training camp. He said he was intentional in putting Maye in situations to lead with authenticity, which included supporting his plan to host teammates in his native North Carolina for pre-training camp throwing and bonding sessions. Vrabel also called it a “unique” role for a player who was turning 23 in August, with room to grow.

As this was unfolding, the X’s and O’s marriage between Maye and McDaniels was also taking shape behind the scenes.

“You have an experienced coach who has done it at the highest level, who has seen the progression of [Tom Brady] come in and become the greatest ever. And you have a curious and wide-eyed young player who’s very talented at football coming off a year where you don’t win a lot, so you’re like ‘I’ll do whatever if it means we’ll be good.’ I think that’s a good combination,” Dobbs, 30, observed.

“The biggest way to grow in life in anything is curiosity, and I think Drake has great curiosity in how to become a great football player, great quarterback. Not just throwing the ball, but managing the game, understanding the offense, leading men.”

Leadership was a significant change from 2024. Maye had been more deferential after arriving as the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, careful not to infringe on veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett‘s turf. Their lockers were side by side. Brissett had a “C” on his jersey as a captain. Maye also was part of a rookie class with sixth-round pick Joe Milton III, who had his own hopes of being the starter.

In 12 starts, but only 10 in which he played all four quarters, Maye totaled 10 interceptions and completed 66.6% of his passes.

“Vrabes calls him the conductor. The train, the show, whatever it is – everything literally goes through the quarterback.”

Patriots backup QB Tommy DeVito on Drake Maye

In hopes of sparking Maye’s growth in 2025, the Patriots altered the quarterbacks room dynamic by signing Dobbs (with his eighth NFL team) early in free agency, trading Milton to the Dallas Cowboys before the first day of voluntary offseason workouts and claiming DeVito on waivers from the New York Giants at the end of the preseason. Vrabel also hired Grant, whom he views as a rising star after getting to know him as part of the Cleveland Browns staff in 2024, as quarterbacks coach.

That infrastructure, along with McDaniels’ acumen, contributed to fostering Maye’s development when there was inevitable disruption on the railway.

“I missed OTAs and training camp when all that really went down. From what I heard, it was a lot of growing pains from both sides — all sides — for the offense in general,” DeVito said.

“There is a lot to this offense. When I first got here [at the end of preseason], I was getting frustrated and [they said to me] ‘take it easy, we dealt with this all OTAs and training camp.’ I know they grinded it out day in and day out a lot to get to the point they are.”

That continued into the early part of the regular season. When the Patriots lost to the Raiders 20-13 in the season opener, and Maye looked indecisive at times in finishing 30-of-46 for 287 yards with a touchdown and interception, McDaniels fielded a flurry of questions from the media. One of the most prevalent was if the offense was too complex, and if Maye had “too much on his plate.”

McDaniels was calm and decisive in saying they weren’t asking too much of Maye.

“It’s got to be a long-term vision of where this guy is going to be,” he said. “He’s going to be a really good player. He’s the right guy.”

Coming together for an MVP-like season

MCDANIELS REMEMBERS ONE play from training camp providing a glimpse of Maye’s promise. It was a broken play. Maye scrambled to his right and looked as if he was going to run out of bounds or throw it away.

Instead, just inches from the sideline, he uncorked a 60-yard bomb down the sideline to receiver DeMario “Pop” Douglas.

“I’m like, ‘There’s no way he can get the ball to this guy, right?'” McDaniels recalled.

The ball placement was perfect. Douglas, who called it “fastbreak” football, scored. McDaniels’ jaw dropped.

“I looked around and was like, ‘Did anyone else see this?'” he said.

Coaches had been working with Maye on remaining a thrower for longer instead of taking off to run. The play was one example of how Maye took the coaching to heart.

By season’s end, Maye led the NFL in Total QBR (77.2), completion percentage (72%) and yards per attempt (8.9). Since Total QBR was introduced in 2006, the only quarterbacks to lead the NFL in all three of those categories were Tom Brady in 2007 and Tony Romo in 2014.

Maye also became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 71% of his passes and average 8.9 yards per attempt in a season (minimum 100 attempts).

“The questions he asked were questions a guy who has been in the league 4, 5, 6 years would ask. So you knew you were dealing with a guy that could think the game of football.”

McDaniels on Maye

He entered Week 18 as the favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. After Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw four touchdown passes in a win over the Arizona Cardinals, Stafford became the odds-on favorite (-180) to win MVP ahead of Maye (+150).

“Just the way Josh is wired is good for him. I think they almost counterbalance each other in a way, too,” veteran tight end Hunter Henry said. “They’ve really, really gotten close, seeing things on the same page.”

Players say McDaniels’ unwavering and relentless attention to detail has been embraced by Maye.

“He’s intense in the best way possible — always firing. Probably one of the more detail-oriented, dialed-in people throughout the day, consistently, I’ve ever been around,” DeVito said of McDaniels.

“Whether it’s teams or random companies, if the person leading doesn’t have that innate sense of ‘I want to get it right, I’m anal about what I do and I take pride in what is being put out there,’ usually the results kind of show that,” Dobbs added. “I think results have shown success because of his mindset.”

As a result, Maye shared he feels well-prepared for the variety of challenges opposing defenses present, which in the playoffs will be among the toughest the Patriots face. New England had an easier schedule — opponents’ final win percentage was .391 — as a result of its last-place finish in 2024.

“He really takes practice very seriously, and I think that’s one of the greatest things about him. He cares so much about practice and getting practice right,” Maye said.

In turn, McDaniels has noted Maye’s growth-based mindset.

The combination has been at the forefront of the Patriots’ stunning turnaround.

“What I’m most impressed and excited about is how much he grows from a good or bad experience,” McDaniels said. “I don’t know what else you could ask from a player. Some take a little bit longer than others to digest a mistake and learn from it, and then utilize it. Boy, he does that really well.”



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Bears lose key defensive player for rest of playoffs after brutal injury

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Bears lose key defensive player for rest of playoffs after brutal injury


NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

The Chicago Bears locked in defensively and only allowed six points in the second half against the Green Bay Packers in their playoff comeback win on Saturday night, but they ended up taking a huge blow.

Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards suffered a gruesome leg injury in the second quarter of their 31-27 win. Edwards’ leg was put into an air cast and he was carted off the field. But Bears head coach Ben Johnson revealed the grim news about Edwards’ status for the remainder of the postseason.

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Chicago Bears’ T.J. Edwards is helped off the field during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Green Bay Packers Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago.  (AP Photo/Nam Huh)

Johnson said it looked like Edwards “had a fibula fracture which we’ll take him out for the rest of the season here.”

Edwards got his left foot caught up with the leg of Packers wide receiver Christian Watson and bent awkwardly.

SUPER BOWL 2026 ODDS: SEAHAWKS FAVORED, RAMS SECOND; BEARS MOVE UP

TJ Edwards down on the field

Chicago Bears’ Jaquan Brisker calls for help as T.J. Edwards is injured during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Green Bay Packers Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago.  (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

The 29-year-old only played 10 games for the Bears this season due to injuries. He had 67 tackles, a half-sack and five pass breakups. He also had one interception, which he returned for a touchdown. It was his third season with Chicago.

He joined the Bears in 2023 after spending his first four years of his NFL career with the Philadelphia Eagles. He joined the Eagles as an undrafted free agent out of Wisconsin.

TJ Edwards up against the 49ers

Chicago Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards (53) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in the first half at Levi’s Stadium on Dec. 28, 2025. (Sergio Estrada/Imagn Images)

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Edwards signed a two-year contract extension with the Bears in April. He’s been a starter on the Bears’ defense since joining them.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.





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Transfer window weekly: Real Madrid open to Vinícius exit? Chelsea keen?

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The winter transfer window is open across Europe, and business is starting to get done. What are ESPN’s reporters hearing about possible deals?

Every Friday until February, we’ll bring you the latest updates and insights on the biggest transfer news.

Transfers homepage | Men’s grades | Women’s grades

Could Real Madrid be open to letting Vinicius Jr. leave?

Madrid would like Vinicius Jr. to stay and sign a new contract, and that remains the player’s preference too, multiple sources have told ESPN. But at the same time, there are more doubts about his future than ever before. And some sources aren’t ruling out a departure in the summer.

Talks over a new deal — with his contract up in 2027 — have been stalled since last May. Vinicius is in poor form, with no goals in his last 16 games. He has been whistled by Madrid fans, and his relationship with coach Xabi Alonso has been strained. Sources close to the Brazil forward believe there will be no contract agreement before the 2026 World Cup, with no talks expected sooner, which would mean Vinicius entering the final year of his contract. Is that a risk Madrid are willing to take?

The Bernabéu crowd’s treatment of the player is not a surprise, sources close to him said, blaming the Spanish media for their coverage of the saga. The only solution to the stand-off is viewed as Vinicius rediscovering his form and the team’s all-round game improving, reducing the tension around the side and coach Alonso. That would open up a scenario where Madrid and the player’s camp could both justify reaching a compromise agreement.

Previous interest from Saudi Arabia has cooled, and Vinicius would not favor a move there, sources said, preferring — in the event of a move — to join a top European team. Despite links in recent days, there has been no official approach from Chelsea, sources close to the player told ESPN. — Alex Kirkland, Gustavo Hofman, Rodrigo Faez and Rodra

But are Chelsea interested?

Most top clubs would hold an interest in a player of that caliber and it has been at least five minutes since Chelsea signed a winger … But club sources have told ESPN that they are expecting a quiet January as they focus on their summer plans and the Blues would have to create both the space in the squad and the requisite finances to do a deal of that size.

You can rarely rule Chelsea out of a transfer like this given their proclivity for a deal, but it seems highly unlikely this month as things stand. — James Olley

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1:56

Burley: Arsenal will win the league despite Viktor Gyökeres

Craig Burley talks about Viktor Gyökeres’ lack of goals in Arsenal’s draw to Liverpool as they stand top of the Premier League table.

Have Arsenal suddenly entered the running for Crystal Palace defender Marc Guéhi?

Not exactly. Guéhi has been running down his contract for the past 18 months and during that time, leading clubs from across Europe have lodged an interest in the center back, including Arsenal. Crystal Palace were steadfast in their refusal to let him go until the end of the 2025 summer window, when reluctantly accepting he would not sign a new contract and agreeing a £35 million deal with Liverpool, only for it to collapse on deadline day.

With his contact up in 2026, Palace want to avoid losing Guéhi for nothing in the summer and have signaled a willingness to listen to offers. But Liverpool are yet to return to the table, believing they can sign him on a free transfer at the end of the season. Consequently, others are sensing a more immediate opportunity.

Arsenal have asked to be kept informed of the situation this month — and that is significant — yet they signed Piero Hincapié and Cristhian Mosquera in the summer and don’t appear to have space in the squad to do a deal now, despite recent injuries. But with the Premier League title in sight, could they resist one more addition if the circumstances arose? — Olley

Are Man City and Liverpool still interested in Guéhi?

A January move for Guéhi wasn’t really on City’s radar, but that was before they lost Josko Gvardiol and Rúben Dias to injury. Throw in John Stones‘ continued absence (and the likelihood that he’s leaving in the summer, anyway) and doubts over Nathan Aké‘s ability to stay fit and you can understand why it’s suddenly become appealing.

City were looking at Guéhi for the summer because it’s very rare that market opportunities like that come up. If there’s a possibility that they could bring it forward for an acceptable fee then they’ll look at it. It would certainly solve a big problem for Pep Guardiola. — Rob Dawson

Guéhi’s summer move to Liverpool was so advanced that he had already undergone the first part of his medical when Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish pulled the plug.

Liverpool were prepared to pay a transfer fee of £35 million to land the defender back on deadline day, but had planned to revisit the deal next summer when Guéhi will be a free agent. However, while Liverpool are anticipating a quiet January, they could be forced into action should City make a bid, and they have previous for bringing forward their summer plans to ensure they land their top targets. — Beth Lindop

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2:47

Who’s in contention to be Manchester United’s interim head coach?

Mark Ogden discusses current candidates to take charge of Manchester United until the end of the season, including Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Michael Carrick.

Man United have no manager, but will they let Kobbie Mainoo, Joshua Zirkzee or Manuel Ugarte leave?

United won’t do any business before their three AFCON absentees — Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui — return to Old Trafford, but once they are back in the squad, United will listen to offers for Zirkzee and Ugarte. Mainoo won’t be going anywhere this month.

The issue with both Ugarte and Zirkzee, however, is their wages and the reluctance of clubs to foot the salary bills. Ugarte is on substantial wages, having arrived at United from Paris Saint-Germain, while the club would expect a significant fee and/or wage commitment for Zirkzee. The overall cost of Zirkzee’s transfer to United was in the region of £50 million due to fee and agent commission after his 2024 arrival from Bologna. — Mark Ogden

There’s an acceptance that Zirkzee and Ugarte aren’t good enough to be part of United’s long-term plans. But they’re part of a very thin squad and there are games to play to get back into Europe next season.

If they were to leave in January, they would probably need to be replaced and United are more focused on the summer window. Roma are interested in Zirkzee, although there hasn’t yet been any club-to-club contact. — Dawson

Are Paris Saint-Germain going to do anything this month?

Luis Enrique is very happy with his squad, which won yet another trophy with the Trophée des Champions (the French version of the Super Cup) on Thursday. The injured players (Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos) are fully fit now so there is not really much need for new arrivals.

If a player were to leave then he would be replaced, but the Parisians are already working on their summer plans. They will make a move for the Lille prodigy Ayyoub Bouaddi. The defensive midfielder, 18, is an amazing talent and PSG see him as the successor to Fabián Ruiz.

They also like two young talents from Portugal: Benfica striker Anisio Cabral, 17, has a release clause which is already €60m and he was the top goal scorer in the last U17 World Cup; and FC Porto starting right back Alberto Costa, whose transfer is valued at around €25 million. — Julien Laurens

Barcelona are set to sign João Cancelo on loan, but do they really want a center back? And will goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen leave?

Barça coach Hansi Flick wanted a center back this month but he will have to make do with full back Cancelo. The Portugal international offers depth in the full back positions, while his arrival could potentially allow Jules Koundé to play in the middle of defense if needed, but it is not exactly what Flick had in mind this month.

However, the nature of the options available in January, coupled with Barça’s tricky financial situation, means the German manager has accepted that an extra body in defense is better than none. Barça, meanwhile, continue to work on the idea of landing a top center back in the summer — barring any dramatic twists in January.

Meanwhile, Ter Stegen’s future remains up in the air. Flick has made it clear that Joan García is No. 1 at Barça, but there is no clear getaway for the Germany international at the moment. Girona are one team who have shown concrete interest, but a deal remains difficult.

One source suggested to ESPN that Barça may not be willing to let a player leave while still paying the majority of his salary. Another confirmed Girona’s desire to sign the Germany goalkeeper, who wants game time before the World Cup this summer, but also admitted that financially any deal will be “complicated.” That said, stances can quickly change as February nears, so it remains one to watch. — Sam Marsden

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Are Bayern Munich fan’s right to be upset with Lennart Karl?

Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Lennart Karl saying he hopes to play for Real Madrid in the future.

Any other interesting deals in the works?

– USMNT striker Ricardo Pepi is of interest to Fulham, but PSV Eindhoven do not have plans to let him leave during this transfer window. — ESPN NL

– Don’t expect Raheem Sterling to return to the fold for Chelsea now that Enzo Maresca has been replaced as coach by Liam Rosenior. The former Liverpool and Manchester City winger has not played for Chelsea since the 2023-24 season and has been forced to train away from the first team since returning from a season-long loan at Arsenal in 2024-25. But while there has been a change of coach at Stamford Bridge, sources told ESPN that his situation at Chelsea is an ownership decision rather than one made by the coach. — Ogden

Atlético Madrid are open to letting 24-year-old winger Thiago Almada leave if the club receives a suitable offer, according to sources. The Rojiblancos paid Botafogo around €20 million last summer to secure his services, with the intention of him becoming one of the new stars of Diego Simeone’s team. However, the Argentina international has only started five games since, scoring two goals and providing one assist. Atléti are in no rush because he is young, but Almada needs playing time to prove to Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni that he can play an important role at the World Cup, and he might want to move. — Rodri Faez

– Atlético are close to a deal that would see Giacomo Raspadori move to Roma on loan once the Supercopa de España is over. Atléti’s intention is to recoup the €25 million they paid to sign the Italy striker from Napoli in the summer, although they are looking at an initial loan with a mandatory permanent option. — Faez

Manchester United winger Sam Mather, 21, is close to a permanent move to Turkish club Kayserispor, after failing to break into the first team. — Dawson

Ajax midfielder Kenneth Taylor has agreed a move to Italian giants Lazio for a fee of €17 million plus add-ons. — ESPN NL

– There is no recall option in midfielder Harvey Elliott‘s loan to Aston Villa, so the onus is on Villa to try and come to an agreement with Liverpool if he is surplus to requirements. — Lindop

Vancouver Whitecaps defender Tristan Blackmon looks to be staying put, after a report from the Miami Herald emerged that Inter Miami were close to acquiring the U.S. international. Whitecaps GM Axel Schuster went so far as to issue a statement saying that rather than departing, “the opposite was true” in terms of Blackmon’s future. One source with knowledge of the player’s thinking added that Blackmon would remain in Vancouver, and that he and the Whitecaps are working towards signing the player to a new contract. — Jeff Carlisle

Marseille have made an official offer to sign Botafogo forward Artur. According to sources, the decision to accept the deal or not will be in the hands of new Botafogo coach Martín Anselmi. — André Hernan, ESPN Brasil

– Free agent Gabriel Paulista is set to join Corinthians after agreeing a contract with the club. The 35-year-old defender will be fulfilling a childhood dream, as he is a supporter of the club, and he let go of 30 million Brazilian reais ($5.6 million) in wages owed from his time at Besiktas to join them. The former Arsenal center back was also the subject of interest from other Brazilian teams, but ultimately chose to join his boyhood club. — Hernan and Felipe Silva, ESPN Brasil

Sergio Ramos, 39, and James Rodríguez, 34, have left Liga MX sides Monterrey and León, respectively, but there is a possibility that both players could continue to play in Mexico or MLS, as several teams have inquired about them. Rodríguez has been linked with at least five teams from MLS, with LA Galaxy and the Columbus Crew being the strongest contenders. Ramos recently turned down a move to Paris FC and is reportedly keen to return to Europe. — ESPN Deportes



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