Fashion
China’s economy expected to grow 4.8% in 2026: Goldman Sachs
The team’s most distinctive out-of-consensus view is for China’s current account surplus to rise to 4.2 per cent of GDP this year from 3.6 per cent in 2025.
Goldman Sachs Research expects China’s real GDP to grow by 4.8 per cent in 2026, above the consensus of estimates of 4.5 per cent.
However, structural challenges like labour market weakness remain.
Its forecast for producer price inflation of minus 0.7 per cent is modestly higher than the consensus expectation of minus 1 per cent.
Consumer price inflation is projected to be below 1 per cent this year.
However, structural challenges like low household consumption and labour market weakness remain, Goldman Sachs Research said in a insights piece.
While the housing market’s decline hasn’t yet reached its bottom, the economic drag from a declining property market is expected to lessen.
China’s economy is projected by the financial services firm to grow faster than consensus estimates this year as exports increase and the economic drag from a declining property market lessens.
The Chinese economy has changed significantly in recent years amid trade wars and a prolonged property downturn, wrote Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief China economist, in a recent report.
Both China’s share of US imports and its new property starts—a measure of new residential construction projects—fell last year to levels last seen in the early 2000s.
In light of these shifts, policymakers face the challenge of finding new sources of growth in the coming years, Shan wrote.
“Although Chinese exporters have successfully diversified into non-US markets, supporting our positive outlook for Chinese exports, building a consumption- and services-driven economy will take years, if not decades,” she added.
Goldman Sachs Research’s above-consensus forecast for Chinese economic growth is consistent with its above-consensus projections for monetary and fiscal policy easing, inflation and exports.
Similarly, its forecast for producer price inflation of minus 0.7 per cent is modestly higher than the consensus expectation of minus 1 per cent.
China has been experiencing deflation in its producer price index (PPI) for more than three years. The team expects year-on-year PPI to turn positive in early 2027. Meanwhile, it estimates headline consumer price inflation will largely remain below 1 per cent this year.
Goldman Sachs Research expects price inflation for Chinese exports in US dollar terms to turn positive in 2026, rising to 0.7 per cent from minus 2.7 per cent last year.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Fashion
2026 growth in Africa to drop by up to 0.2% due to Iran war: Report
The report titled ‘Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East on African Economies’, cautions that African economies, which were slowly recovering from the severe consequences of COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war and rising trade tariffs, could be among the most affected by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Growth in African countries is projected to decline by up to 0.2 per cent this year due to the Middle East crisis, according to a joint policy document by the African Union Commission, the African Development Bank Group, the UN Economic Commission for Africa and the UN Development Programme.
The main effects of the conflicts on Africa include surging prices of hydrocarbons, food products and fertilisers.
Kevin Urama, chief economist and vice president for economic governance and knowledge management at AfDB who presented the report on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, DC, recently, urged African governments not to panic or take hasty decisions that could harm their fiscal balances.
The main effects of Middle Eastern conflicts on African economies include surging prices of hydrocarbons, food products and fertilisers, noted the report.
“Eighty per cent of the oil imported into Africa comes from this region, as well as 50 per cent of refined petroleum,” said ECA executive secretary Claver Gatete.
The report recommends, in particular, strategic inflation management to ensure short-term price stability expectations. It cautions oil-exporting countries to adopt strict fiscal discipline by managing windfall revenues prudently, while strengthening debt-monitoring, and using energy reserves strategically.
Where fiscal space allows, it advises that temporary and targeted social protection measures be deployed to shield the most vulnerable populations from the crisis, added the report.
However, the report urged governments to avoid broad-based subsidies that could worsen long-term fiscal deficits, and to diversify sources of energy, inputs and food supplies.
It also recommends that African governments strengthen regional and intra-African trade in oil and fertiliser markets to enhance resilience; and ensure smooth inter-institutional coordination to harmonise strategic monetary and fiscal policies.
At the same time, the report calls upon development partners, multilateral banks and development finance institutions to provide emergency support to African countries through crisis response measures and technical assistance.
It also recommends a speedy operationalisation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while strengthening large-scale domestic capital mobilisation.
The report also suggested Africa to diversify its energy mix by accelerating investments in renewable energy and the gas sector.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Fashion
Indian reforms strengthen DGFT norms committees’ functioning: Ministry
The measures aimed at improving turnaround time, enabling early approvals and enhancing transparency and predictability under the Advance Authorisation (AA) scheme.
The Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry has undertaken a series of targeted reforms to strengthen the functioning of norms committees under the Directorate General of Foreign Trade, it recently said.
The measures—aimed at improving turnaround time, enabling early approvals and enhancing transparency and predictability under the Advance Authorisation scheme—have resulted in improved outcomes.
DGFT administers the AA scheme and the Duty-Free Import Authorisation (DFIA) scheme under the Foreign Trade Policy. These schemes allow duty-free import of inputs that are physically incorporated in export products.
Authorisations are generally issued against notified standard input-output norms (SION). In cases where SION is not available, authorisations are issued based on self-declared input-output norms by applicants, which are subsequently examined and finalised by sector-specific NCs.
At present, seven NCs are operational under DGFT, covering a range of export sectors. These comprise technical authorities and domain experts from relevant ministries and departments. They are responsible for fixation of SION and ad-hoc norms, recommending SION notifications and facilitating issuance of authorisations in accordance with the Foreign Trade Policy and handbook of procedures.
The functioning of NCs had been affected by capacity constraints due to a limited number of technical authorities. As of early February 2026, only twelve technical members were associated with the committees, including five serving government officers, resulting in increasing pendency due to overlapping responsibilities.
To address these challenges, a series of reforms have been introduced. These include strengthening of governance and processes; augmentation of technical capacity; and a special disposal drive for expeditious disposal of pending applications.
Detailed guidelines have been issued to ensure uniformity and consistency in the functioning of NCs. These include institutionalised scheduling of meetings on a fixed fortnightly cycle, prioritisation of long-pending cases, time-bound finalisation of meeting minutes and systematic monitoring of pendency and case ageing.
Efforts have also been made to identify recurring cases for conversion into SION to reduce repetitive approvals.
Line ministries have been requested to nominate additional technical officers to the committees to enhance sectoral expertise and reduce dependence on a limited pool of members.
As part of capacity augmentation, ten additional technical members have been nominated from various ministries, increasing the total number of technical authorities from 12 to 22.
The reforms have resulted in improved outcomes, a release from the ministry said. Between January 2026 and 7 April 2026, a total of 38 NC meetings were held, in which 3,925 cases were taken up and 1,770 cases were disposed of.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Fashion
Tiruppur gains from FTA: Zero UK, EU duty to boost exports
In February, Fibre*Fashion reported, citing an Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency report, that the India–EU FTA pushes for eliminating the duties on shipments from India and giving the country a competitive edge against competitors such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, who have so far enjoyed free entry into the EU region.
The FTA between India and the EU is expected to come into effect sometime in early January and with the United Kingdom in June or July this year. CEO of The Synerg, Karthikeyan Shanmugam, said in an interview with Fibre*Fashion that the future is quite good for India’s textile industry as the FTAs come into place.
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