Business
Investor concerns over AI Capex returns may grow as Big Tech market leadership weakens: Jefferies
New Delhi: The trend of investors questioning returns from artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure is expected to grow in the coming quarters as the market leadership of Big Tech in the US stock market shows signs of breaking down, according to a report by Jefferies.
The report stated that its base case is that the market leadership of Big Tech in the US stock market is breaking down. It added that the trend of investors starting to question the returns from AI capex has only just started, and there is huge potential for these concerns to grow in the coming quarters.
Jefferies said, “GREED & fear’s base case is that the market leadership of Big Tech in the US stock market is breaking down. GREED & fear’s view is that the trend of investors starting to question the returns from AI capex has only just started. There is huge potential for these concerns to grow in coming quarters.”
The report stated this because the share of the four major hyperscalers and Nvidia as a percentage of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation has declined from a record high of 27.4 per cent on 3 November 2025 to 24.7 per cent.
The report stated that this percentage could fall further. However, these five companies still account for an estimated 41 per cent of the gains in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2023, when the AI thematic entered the US stock market.
The report noted that while this may be a key issue for the overall American stock market trend, the real financial risks lie in companies that have relied on borrowing to fund AI capex and related data centre expansion.
The report also added that it had refrained from calling AI a bubble in the past three years because most of the capex was funded by cash. However, this is now changing with the growing involvement of private credit in funding AI capex.
There are already more than USD 200 bn of outstanding private credit loans to AI-related companies, which could rise to USD 300-600 bn by 2030, according to a recent study by the Bank for International Settlements.
Jefferies warned that the related surge in securitisation of data centre financing may not have a happy ending. Estimates suggest that annual data centre securitisation issuance could reach USD 30-40 bn in both 2026 and 2027, up from about USD 27bn in 2025.
A major recent concern in AI revolves around the massive capital expenditure plans of Big Tech companies. In 2026, firms such as Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta and Microsoft are projected to collectively spend around USD 650-700 billion, mostly on data centres, chips and AI build-outs, in an intense race for dominance.
This unprecedented surge in spending has sparked investor worries about cash flow strain, potential negative free cash flow, margin pressure and uncertain returns on investment, leading to stock sell-offs and fears of overcapacity or an AI bubble reminiscent of past technology hype cycles.
Business
Nike shares fall 9% on weak outlook, expected 20% sales decline in China
A Nike logo is displayed at a Nike store in Austin, Texas, Feb. 5, 2026.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Shares of Nike fell in extended trading Tuesday after the retailer warned sales will fall for the rest of the calendar year, led by an expected 20% decline in its key China market during the current quarter.
Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said during the company’s earnings call that Nike expects sales for its current fiscal fourth quarter to drop between 2% and 4%, compared with Wall Street estimates of a 1.9% increase, according to LSEG.
For the duration of the calendar year, Friend said, the company expects sales to fall by a low single-digit percentage, led by growth in North America and offset by declines in China. That outlook wasn’t comparable to estimates.
Nike beat expectations across the business on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter, but its guidance left investors with more questions about how long its turnaround will take. Friend also cautioned that Nike’s guidance was based off of where the global economic picture stands today — and it could change given recent geopolitical volatility.
“We also recognize that the environment around us has become increasingly dynamic, and we could experience unplanned volatility due to the disruption in the Middle East, rising oil prices and other factors that could impact either input costs or consumer behavior,” said Friend. “We are focused on what we can control.”
Shares fell more than 8% in extended trading.
Here’s how the world’s largest sneaker company did for its fiscal third quarter, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 35 cents vs. 28 cents expected
- Revenue: $11.28 billion vs. $11.24 billion expected
The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 28 was $520 million, or 35 cents per share. That’s a 35% decline from $794 million, or 54 cents per share, a year earlier. That plunge came as Nike’s gross profit margin slid 1.3 percentage points to 40.2%, “primarily due to higher tariffs in North America,” the company said.
Sales were flat at $11.28 billion, compared to $11.27 billion last year.
While Nike beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, it posted a mixed picture regionally. Nike’s largest market of North America continued to show steady growth, as revenue climbed 3% to $5.03 billion, but that was just shy of Wall Street’s expectations of $5.04 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Meanwhile, Nike’s Greater China market continued to shrink, with revenue down 7% to $1.62 billion during the quarter. Still, that total beat analyst estimates of $1.50 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Nike is continuing to work through a colossal turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill. About a year and a half into his tenure, Hill has made strides in repairing parts of the business, but has been clear that it’ll take time for the entire company to improve given the retailer’s scale and complexity.
He reiterated that expectation on Tuesday, saying in a news release that “the pace of progress is different across the portfolio.”
“The areas we prioritized first continue to drive momentum,” Hill said. “The work is not finished, but the direction is clear, our teams are moving with focus and urgency, and our foundation is getting even stronger to build the future of NIKE.”
Friend said Nike’s turnaround efforts “will continue to impact results over the balance of the calendar year.”
Nike’s recovery was already coming at a tough time as a global trade war dented its efforts to improve profitability and drive sales from inflation-weary shoppers. But now the athletic company will have to contend with a new war in the Middle East that’s already led to rising gas prices and is expected to send consumer prices even higher, which could push shoppers to cut back on nice-to-haves like new clothes and shoes to save money elsewhere.
“We continue to be encouraged by the momentum in North America. We’ve got a strong order book for summer,” Friend said. “We’re seeing positive signs and sell through. We’re not seeing a consumer reaction to what’s going on in the Middle East at this point in time, in North America.”
Hill has focused in part on revitalizing Nike’s business with wholesale partners as opposed to direct sales on its website and in stores. Wholesale revenue climbed 5% to $6.5 billion.
Meanwhile, direct sales slid 4% to $4.5 billion.
Business
Tech giant Oracle makes ‘significant’ job cuts
It is thought that thousands of people may have lost their jobs at Oracle, one of the world’s largest tech companies.
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Business
Oil nears highest price since start of Iran war
The US-Israel Iran war has halted almost all traffic in a key waterway and the price Brent crude has surged.
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