Sports
Sizing up 2026 NFL offseason trades: DJ Moore, Trent McDuffie
We’re in the thick of NFL trade season, and before 2026 free agency has even opened, we’ve seen a pair of fascinating deals go down this week.
On Wednesday, the Rams pounced on an opportunity to add former All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie, sending a first-round pick and three other selections to the Chiefs to acquire one of Kansas City’s top defenders. Then 24 hours later, the Bills finally landed the wide receiver GM Brandon Beane has sought for several years, sending a second-round pick to the Bears for DJ Moore and a fifth-round selection.
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I’m here to try to make sense of these deals. Why did a Bears team that had been in asset collection mode around Caleb Williams suddenly trade away its most accomplished wide receiver? Did the Bills really land a No. 1 option for Josh Allen? And although the Rams trading a first-round pick away shouldn’t have surprised anybody, why did a Chiefs team that perennially expects to compete for a Super Bowl deal away its top defensive back?
Let’s break that all down and figure out who got the better of these two swaps. I’ll start in Chicago, where the Moore deal might have been as much about what’s happening off the field as what’s going on between the lines.
Jump to a trade:
Moore to BUF | McDuffie to LAR

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Bills get: WR DJ Moore, 2026 fifth-round pick
Bears get: 2026 second-round pick
What does the deal mean for the Bears’ financial flexibility?
Bears general manager Ryan Poles managed to turn a difficult situation into a shockingly favorable return here. To understand how the Bears got here, go back to the summer of 2024. With Moore coming off a 1,364-yard season and having two years to go on his existing deal, it’s reasonable to understand why Poles would want to lock in his No. 1 receiver for then-rookie quarterback Caleb Williams over the long term. In a rapidly accelerating wide receiver market, Moore signed a four-year, $110 million extension, averaging $27.5 million per season.
Two years later, that deal hasn’t even really begun, and the situation looks totally different in Chicago. The Bears have used first-round picks on receiver Rome Odunze and tight end Colston Loveland, and second-rounder Luther Burden III was impressive down the stretch as a rookie. Moore’s numbers have dropped each of the past two years, as he finished with exactly half as many receiving yards in 2025 (682) as he did in 2023. Chicago’s season finished with Moore running an imperfect or wrong route on a Williams interception in overtime against the Rams.
Coach Ben Johnson never seemed to have any desire to build his offense around Moore as the focal point of the passing attack. Moore made big plays, with the touchdown catch in overtime to beat the Packers as the most notable example, but his target share and route efficiency stats were way down from where they had been two years earlier. Moore also isn’t one of the league’s better blocking wide receivers, something Johnson really values given how heavily his offense leans into the run and screen games. I would suspect that Johnson wants to play more 12 personnel (two WRs, two TEs, one RB) in 2026, which would limit opportunities for a third wideout to get on the field.
Crucially, the Bears were about to lock in for the first two years of Moore’s new deal. They already paid Moore a $20 million signing bonus before the contract years of the extension ever kicked in, so that number has become a sunk cost. Moore’s $23.5 million base salary for 2026 was already guaranteed, and $15.5 million of his $23.5 million base salary for 2027 guarantees later this month. Adding per-game roster bonuses to the mix, the Bears were going to be on the hook to pay Moore $49 million over the next two seasons if they kept him on the roster.
For a top receiver coming off a massive season, that number is eminently reasonable. Coming off 2025, though, Moore projected to be somewhere between the third and fourth option in the Bears’ passing attack. That’s an untenable cost for a guy who isn’t going to be one of the key receivers in the offense, and it’s a situation Poles needed to extricate the Bears’ cash from this offseason before the 2027 guarantees kicked in.
Dumping Moore’s contract for a Day 3 pick would have been reasonable for Chicago. When I looked at potential trade options last month, I pegged Moore’s value as somewhere in the ballpark of a fifth-round pick as part of a hypothetical deal to the Raiders. He is unquestionably worth more to other teams than he is to the current Bears given their roster construction, but I’m just not sure there should have been teams lining up to pay Moore this much money for his age-29 and age-30 seasons.
Instead, Poles landed meaningful draft capital. The Bears got the 60th pick as part of this deal, and although they’re sending a fifth-rounder to Buffalo along with Moore, the difference between those two selections amounts to something like the 89th pick in a typical draft, per the Chase Stuart draft chart. Landing a mid-third-round pick’s worth of value for a player whose contract wasn’t a good fit for the roster is a great move for Poles, even if paying that $20 million signing bonus two years ago for a contract that Moore never played a snap on in Chicago turned out to be a major mistake.
What’s most important for the Bears, though, is the cash. They’re freeing up $49 million to spend over the next two years, which is critical for a team with major needs. Even if the Bears want to spend that money on offense to surround Williams with as much talent as possible, reallocating those resources to address center (where Drew Dalman unexpectedly retired this week) and left tackle (where late-season starter Ozzy Trapilo tore his patellar tendon and won’t be ready to start in 2026) is a much better use of their money. The Bears could pour much of that money into offensive line help and spend a more reasonable amount on a Moore replacement as their WR3, either by signing a veteran on a low-cost contract like Olamide Zaccheaus or adding another wideout in the draft.
On the other hand, Poles might want to use the cash he freed up to address the defense, which was a much bigger weakness for the Bears in 2026. I’m one of the many people linking the Bears to a potential Maxx Crosby swap. Although Chicago is already spending more than $36 million on the edge between Dayo Odeyingbo and Montez Sweat, it still doesn’t have a pass rush that projects to be very good in 2026. Sweat has topped out as a very solid second edge rusher so far in his career, and Odeyingbo is recovering from a torn Achilles.
Crosby would add another $30 million to that mix, but with $35.5 million in cash for Dalman and Moore coming off the books, the Bears suddenly have much more financial flexibility. Odeyingbo is likely to be gone after 2026, when the Bears will need to start preparing for new contracts for Williams, Odunze and right tackle Darnell Wright. If they are ever going to take that big swing on defense, now’s the time.
1:12
Stephen A. reacts to DJ Moore’s trade to Bills
Stephen A. Smith reacts to wide receiver DJ Moore getting traded from Chicago to Buffalo.
And of course, after Thursday’s trade, the Bears now have four top-90 picks (Nos. 25, 57, 60 and 89) to dangle in a potential Crosby swap. The Raiders are reportedly hoping to land a Micah Parsons-sized haul for their star edge rusher, but I’m not sure that sort of return is going to be realistic for a player who is several years older than the Packers standout. A Quinnen Williams-level return might be more possible, and the Bears could now offer first- and second-round picks and still have two picks to work with on Day 2.
We’ll see what Poles and the Bears do with their newfound flexibility, but they’re in a much more logical build for 2026 than they were with Moore on the roster. The Bills will also feel like they’re in a better situation, but was this really the right move?
Did the Bills throw too much at their problem?
The Bills, on the other hand, are not going to have Moore as their fourth option in the passing game. This is an offense that was running out Tyrell Shavers, Brandin Cooks, Gabe Davis and Keon Coleman for 25 or more snaps in the wild-card round against the Jaguars, only for Shavers and Davis to tear ACLs. Mecole Hardman Jr. and Curtis Samuel played meaningful snaps in the subsequent loss to the Broncos, where the key play of the game came down to Cooks being outmuscled on an interception by Broncos slot corner Ja’Quan McMillian.
What has happened since has made one thing clear: The Bills are not willing to head into 2026 with this same situation. They fired Sean McDermott and promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach. Owner Terry Pegula publicly denigrated the coaching staff for steering the Bills toward Coleman in the second round of the 2024 draft, although he then subsequently promoted the team’s lead offensive mind into the head coaching role.
General manager Brandon Beane has tried to fill this outside receiver role for Josh Allen multiple times since trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans before the 2024 season. He used a second-round pick on Coleman. At that year’s trade deadline, the Bills sent a third-round pick and a swap of late-round selections to the Browns for Amari Cooper. Beane signed Samuel and Joshua Palmer to middle-class deals in free agency. After he failed to add a playmaker at the trade deadline last year, the Bills scoured the waiver wire for just about anybody with name recognition over the final few months of the 2025 season. None of those moves really worked.
Will this one be different? Beane is certainly betting that it will. He has sent Buffalo’s second-round pick to the Bears to get this deal done, and although the Bills are getting a fifth-rounder back, the picks cancel out to produce a pretty significant amount of draft capital for a player coming off a 682-yard season. It sure seems that the Bills are buying high in this trade for Moore.
Beane also is taking on a significant financial investment for a team that has multiple free agents up front and just rewarded Allen, James Cook III and Khalil Shakir with new contracts over the past 12 months. As I mentioned earlier, just by taking on Moore’s existing contract, the Bills are committing to paying the 2018 first-round pick $24.5 million in 2026 and, barring something truly unexpected, $24.5 million more in 2027.
What’s really shocking, though, is that Beane didn’t think that was enough. As part of this deal, the Bills also guaranteed $15.5 million of Moore’s $23.5 million base salary in 2028, which essentially locks them into paying Moore that full base salary two years down the line. In other words, Buffalo is either going to pay Moore $55.5 million for one year, $64.5 million for two years or $73.5 million over the next three years, with the latter scenario being the most likely.
I’m not sure why Beane was willing to make this sort of sacrifice to get this deal done. It’s the sort of thing you do for a veteran who doesn’t really want to go somewhere and has the leverage to get out of a deal, but Moore didn’t have any no-trade protection, and the Bills wouldn’t have done this trade if Moore was unwilling to report to Buffalo. Taking on two significant guaranteed years for Moore was already a lot. The $15.5 million won’t mean as much in 2028 if we assume the cap rises another 15% or so between now and then, but it’s still a meaningful amount of money to guarantee well down the line for a player who is coming off his worst season as a pro.
One of the ways I try to estimate trade value is by comparing what a player makes on his existing deal to what I believe he would get as a free agent. There’s a slim chance Moore would get $49 million guaranteed over the next two years on a new deal as a free agent, and I don’t believe there’s any world where he would get a third season mostly guaranteed as part of that free agent contract.
On top of that, the Bills are also sacrificing draft capital to get this deal done. Per Ben Baldwin’s draft chart, the pick swap the Bills are sending is worth another $4.5 million per season in surplus value over the next four years. Since Buffalo is forgoing that value to acquire Moore, it is really paying him $29 million per year over the next three years and an additional $4.5 million in 2027, virtually all of which is guaranteed within the next couple of weeks.
The Bills are making a three-year bet that Moore will look more like the guy from 2023 and 2024 than the one who fell off dramatically in 2025. Are there reasons to think that they could be right? Sure. Moore’s catch rate dropped precipitously in 2025, falling from 70.6% in 2023 and 70.0% in 2024 to 58.8% in 2025. Moore posted a catch rate 5.0% above expectation across his first two seasons in Chicago and a rate 5.7% below expectation in Year 3, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
I’d put a fair amount of the blame for those issues on Williams. Although we saw plenty of late-game heroics from him, Williams’ 20.2% off-target rate was the second-worst figure in the NFL last season, ahead of only Michael Penix Jr. Some of that can be attributed to how a quarterback responds to pressure, but Williams posted a 16.1% off-target rate from clean pockets, which was the fourth-worst rate in the league. In contrast, Allen’s 9% off-target rate without pressure was the seventh-best mark in the NFL.
At the same time, Moore’s catch rates during those first two years in Chicago might be the outliers. Across his time with the Panthers and Bears, his career catch rate is just over 62%, and he has run a collective catch rate 0.3% above expectation, suggesting that he catches just about what he’s supposed to on the whole. There is nothing wrong with those marks, and there’s no question that Moore’s going to get a quarterback upgrade in Buffalo, but I’m not sure we can count on his catch rate to hit 70% again in 2026.
It’s fair to suggest that Moore didn’t always look invested or work reliably within the structure of the various offenses the Bears ran during his time in Chicago. There were some half-hearted routes on tape in 2024, when the Bears were slogging through a hopeless season. Moore can go into power-saving mode at times when he isn’t getting the football. And while that’s true for a fair number of receivers, it’s not something that’s going to play well in Buffalo, where Allen’s greatest strength might be his ability to extend plays and create out of structure as part of scramble drills. The Bills are going to need to hope that playing for a winning team and for Brady — his former offensive coordinator in Carolina — will keep Moore’s effort level where it needs to be on an every-snap basis.
Moore does offer the Bills something they didn’t consistently have as an outside receiver who can win at all three levels. He is at his best running away from defensive backs in coverage across the field, which is where Brady will try to use him to create on crossers. He’s not really the contested catch threat that the Bills lack on the outside and might have added if Cooper had panned out, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Moore to make an impact as the primary wide receiver in Buffalo.
Beane might also make the case that there really isn’t a better alternative likely to come available on this year’s market, especially if the Jaguars don’t want to trade away Brian Thomas Jr. Signing A.J. Brown would have cost much more. The Bills aren’t desperate to reunite with Stefon Diggs. Alec Pierce is a useful player, but he doesn’t have Moore’s skill set. Romeo Doubs and Jauan Jennings have their own flaws and haven’t been as productive at their best as Moore. And drafting a rookie wouldn’t have offered the same level of certainty. If the Bills wanted to ensure that they had a receiver they believed in coming out of this offseason, Moore might have been the best option available.
All of that can be true, and this can still be a risky move and an overpay for the Bills. Buffalo’s offense, for all the consternation about the playmakers, wasn’t the issue with the Bills last season. McDermott’s defense was what held the Bills back, particularly against the run, where Beane signed a pair of defenders in Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi who both immediately faced suspensions after their arrival. Joey Bosa, the team’s prized addition on the edge, didn’t have a great year against the run.
The move to trade for Moore and pay him this much takes a significant amount of money out of the budget to improve things on the defensive side of the ball. I understand the desire to have a playmaker who might have won on that contested-catch opportunity in the playoffs, but remember that before the interception, the Bills were in position to win in Denver if they could have just stopped Bo Nix from going the length of the field for a touchdown with 4:06 to go. They couldn’t hold up.
Although it certainly feels like the Bills haven’t made a major commitment at wide receiver, they’ve quietly committed a remarkable amount of resources to the position without coming away with a sure thing or a legitimate WR1. They’ve now used a second-round pick to trade for Moore, a third-rounder to trade for Cooper and another second-round pick on Coleman, who was the first selection on Day 2 of the 2024 draft.
If the Bills were left with players on cheap, cost-controlled deals at the position, that would be one thing, but this room is more expensive than you might think. Moore’s making $24.5 million in cash. Shakir, who signed an extension last season, will earn $12.7 million. Palmer will take home $10.3 million if the Bills keep him on the roster, and he’ll make $4.6 million if the Bills release him. It would be a surprise if Samuel stuck around at $8 million in 2026, but right now, the only team spending more cash at wide receiver than the Bills is the Bengals, who have two superstars.
Do the Bills even have one? I would expect Moore to bounce back this season, but the track record for wideouts who fall off so dramatically at this point of their careers isn’t very encouraging. Leaving injured players aside, there have been five WRs since 1990 who posted a 1,000-yard season in their age-26 season and dropped their receiving yardage by more than 50% by their age-28 campaign. Moore, remember, fell by exactly 50% between those two years. Those five players were Hunter Renfrow, Brian Hartline, Kenny Golladay, Peerless Price and Jeff Graham. Not one of them managed a single 1,000-yard season after his age-28 campaign.
Just ahead of that 50% clip are guys like Marty Booker, Santana Moss, Andre Rison and Drew Bennett. Moss (two years) and Rison (one) had some more success after 28, but none came close to reaching the heights of their age-26 campaign again.
There’s just not the right mix of upside and downside for the Bills in this deal. If it works out, the Bills are basically paying a second-round pick and low-end WR1 money for the privilege of adding a player who was that guy two years ago. That’s fine, but it probably doesn’t move the needle, and it doesn’t really address Buffalo’s biggest need outside of sports talk radio.
If it doesn’t work out, though, the Bills are paying a significant premium into 2028 to add a player who hasn’t looked like a WR1 or really close to it over the past two seasons. They’re paying for a level of certainty I’m not sure Moore’s performance really provides.

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Rams get: CB Trent McDuffie
Chiefs get: 2026 first-round pick, 2026 fifth-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick, 2027 third-round pick
Does this put the Rams over the top?
The McDuffie trade, on the other hand, fits more in line with what we know about each of the teams involved. There’s a reason I had McDuffie going to the Rams for the 29th pick in the 2026 draft when I wrote up my list of potential trades that made sense for both sides last month. The compensation ended up leaning more heavily toward the Chiefs than I expected, and we’ll get to that in a minute. But in terms of the fit for McDuffie on the field and where both organizations want to use their assets, it’s a really logical swap.
You’ve heard how general manager Les Snead feels about draft picks. And if you’ve been paying attention, you probably know that Snead’s cavalier attitude toward those picks is a mischaracterization. Look at the 2025 Rams roster, and you’ll see trade acquisitions such as Matthew Stafford, Kevin Dotson and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and free agent signing Davante Adams all in key roles. But much of what made the Rams great last season was homegrown drafted talent. The devastating four-man defensive front that the Rams rode to the NFC title game was made up of 2023 and 2024 draft picks. Their two top offensive playmakers were Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, both fifth-round picks. Blake Corum, Steve Avila, Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson all played meaningful roles on offense — all draftees.
The Rams don’t have any particular affinity for late first-round picks, and Snead has been willing to either trade those selections when they land in the bottom quarter of the first round or make a bet that they will land there if he trades future picks. Those bets have mostly been correct outside of 2023, when the Rams ended up sending the sixth selection as a future first-rounder to the Lions, who turned it into Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. Of course, the Rams won a Super Bowl with Stafford from the other end of that trade, and flags fly forever.
1:47
Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie?
Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
It’s no surprise, then, that Snead was willing to shop the 29th pick around, especially given that the Rams still have the 13th pick as a result of last year’s trade with the Falcons. And if they were going to trade for any particular position, it was going to be at cornerback, where they struggled badly to find reliable reps outside.
Cobie Durant was solid in his final year before free agency, and Forbes was surprisingly effective for most of the season after quickly flaming out in Washington. But on the other side, the Rams cycled through the likes of Ahkello Witherspoon, Darious Williams and Roger McCreary with limited results. Forbes also got picked on by bigger receivers in key spots, most notably when the Eagles and Panthers worked him in their regular-season victories over L.A.
The Rams are also a team that wants to live in smaller, lighter defensive personnel groupings. They used dime packages on 32.4% of snaps last season, the highest rate in the league by nearly nine percentage points and more than triple the league-average rate. Coordinator Chris Shula lined his defense up in base just 24.9% of the time, which was the ninth-lowest rate. Some of that’s a product of playing in pass-friendly game scripts by virtue of being ahead, but the Rams expect to play from ahead in 2026, and they’ll want to be in nickel and dime packages when they get there.
To live in those groupings in more competitive situations, teams must have defensive backs who can hold up near the line of scrimmage. They need multiple players who can kick inside and play in the slot or as the overhang defender while serving as legitimate pieces in the run fit. The Rams have Quentin Lake in that role, whom they signed to an extension this past year, but adding a cornerback who can play inside or outside and hold his own against the run would be the ideal fit for the current iteration of this roster.
Guess what McDuffie can do? He has played very well in the slot in years past, but the Chiefs had no qualms about moving him outside or playing him in man coverage against tough receiver matchups. He’s not the best pure cover corner in the league, but McDuffie is an excellent blitzer, racking up 5.5 sacks and 22 pressures over his four seasons in Kansas City. And as is the case for just about every Chiefs defensive back under Steve Spagnuolo, McDuffie is a very good tackler, posting a 6.1% missed tackle rate with the Chiefs.
McDuffie falls somewhere between the two corners the Rams have paid significant draft capital to acquire over Sean McVay’s time in Los Angeles. He’s a more complete player than Marcus Peters, who offered more big-play ability without the same impact as a run defender or player near the line of scrimmage. And he’s not quite as complete as Jalen Ramsey, who was better in coverage at his best than McDuffie has been so far as a pro. Isolated against great receivers like DeVonta Smith and Nico Collins last season, McDuffie gave up a few more big plays than you would like from a truly high-end cornerback.
And as a result, the trade compensation for McDuffie falls somewhere between those two other corners. Peters cost the Rams second- and fourth-round picks and had two years to go before free agency. Ramsey, who was a year and a half away from free agency, cost the Rams two first-round picks when they acquired him from the Jaguars in the middle of the 2019 season (magically healing the star cornerback’s mysterious back injury in the process).
The Rams are acquiring McDuffie after the end of his fourth year in the league, meaning they’ll inherit only the fifth-year option of his rookie deal (which offers him a significant raise to $13.6 million). Missing out on a cost-controlled fourth season as part of a trade both limits the surplus value created for the Rams and allows McDuffie to ask for more as part of the inevitable contract extension that’s coming as part of this deal, given that he is one year closer to being an unrestricted free agent.
With that in mind, I thought a first-round pick was probably just about fair value for him, with the Chiefs actually sending a fifth-round pick back to the Rams as part of that mock trade from last month. Instead, Kansas City general manager Brett Veach was able to extract a better haul than I would have expected for a player entering the final year of his rookie deal. The Chiefs held on to their fifth-round pick and instead landed three other selections, including two Day 3 picks and a 2027 third-rounder. Even if we assume that last pick lands toward the end of the third round, that’s still a pretty meaningful cushion for the Chiefs beyond that late first-round selection, even if they use those picks just to move around the board.
Did the Rams pay too much? If they did, it wasn’t by as much as the Bills did for Moore — or even close. From Snead’s perspective, was there really an alternative on the market likely to be as immediately impactful as McDuffie? The Rams could have called the Ravens about Marlon Humphrey, who might be a potential cap casualty in Baltimore, and that wouldn’t have cost anywhere near as much in terms of draft capital. The Rams could have gone into free agency and signed someone like Cor’Dale Flott, which wouldn’t have cost anything in terms of draft capital whatsoever.
In terms of a guy who can step right in and play at a high level as he enters his peak seasons over the next few years, though, I can’t fault the Rams for looking at the high end of the market. Cornerback was their biggest need, and McDuffie was the best player available. Even if the move doesn’t pan out as well as the Rams are hoping right now, it’s easy to understand why they would take this swing at this moment in time, given that Stafford is on a season-by-season basis at this point. If there was a quarterback the Rams liked who was going to be on the board at No. 29, saving this pick might have made more sense. But McDuffie is going to help them put the best possible lineup on the field in 2026.
Don’t the Chiefs need McDuffie?
As a team with Super Bowl aspirations, the Rams understandably want to add an All-Pro talent in the prime of his career at a position of need, which is why they traded a first-round pick for McDuffie. Is it weird that the Chiefs, who have been to the Super Bowl in five of the past seven years, don’t feel the same way?
One interpretation of Veach’s decision to trade McDuffie is that the Chiefs don’t have high hopes of contending in 2026 and want to get the best deal for him now, as opposed to waiting a year and either tag-and-trading him or losing him for nothing in free agency. And that could be a reflection of the status of Patrick Mahomes, who tore an ACL in December at the end of a wildly frustrating season. If the Chiefs don’t believe that Mahomes will be ready until the midway point of 2026, well, they’re probably not going to be a title contender, with or without McDuffie on defense.
There might be a kernel of truth to that possibility, but I don’t think that is what’s happening here. And that’s because the Chiefs simply have not been willing to pay their top cornerbacks significant money when they’ve come up for new deals. Veach traded Peters to the Rams in 2018 for draft picks. L’Jarius Sneed then emerged as a shutdown cornerback for the Chiefs, but after he played out his rookie deal, Veach franchise-tagged Sneed and dealt him to the Titans for a third-round pick.
Chiefs fans will note that those moves worked out well for Kansas City. Peters wasn’t the same guy in Los Angeles, and the Rams eventually dumped him on the Ravens to clear out a spot in the lineup for Ramsey. Sneed has missed 22 of 34 possible games in Tennessee, but he has allowed a 107.7 passer rating in Tennessee. And of course, McDuffie was acquired in part by the draft capital the Chiefs picked up in the Tyreek Hill trade, when Veach dealt away a proven player at another position for picks and in turn landed a valuable player on a rookie contract.
1:51
How far are the Chiefs from making it back to the Super Bowl?
The “Get Up” crew weighs in on how far off the Chiefs are from returning to a Super Bowl.
Even beyond the trades, the Chiefs have been comfortable letting above-average corners like Charvarius Ward and Steven Nelson leave in free agency after playing well in Kansas City. Before 2025, the only time Veach had paid more than $3.5 million to a cornerback in a single season was 2022, when McDuffie took home $8 million as a product of the signing bonus that came with his rookie deal. Since 2018, only the Raiders and Seahawks have spent less cash on their cornerbacks than the Chiefs under Veach.
In 2025, though, Veach made an out-of-character choice by signing Chargers cornerback Kristian Fulton to a two-year, $20 million pact, guaranteeing the veteran $10 million in 2025 and $5 million of the remaining $10 million at the time of signing in 2026. The move bombed. Fulton battled an ankle injury but wasn’t in the lineup often even after returning, spending weeks at a time as a healthy scratch. Fulton played just 208 defensive snaps in his first year with the Chiefs and might not be back in Year 2, even with half of his $10 million salary in 2026 guaranteed.
Signing Fulton didn’t cost the Chiefs McDuffie, but I wonder if it only further discouraged Veach from investing at the position. The Chiefs have been willing to lean into draft picks, undrafted players and veterans with lower-cost deals at cornerback in years past, trusting that Spagnuolo has a keen eye for landing the right sort of player for his scheme. They have developed players such as Sneed and Ward from unheralded prospects into standout starters, and McDuffie was an immediate success after recovering from a hamstring injury early in his rookie tenure.
But it’s also fair to wonder if the Chiefs have enough at cornerback right now. McDuffie is gone. Jaylen Watson, who allowed one touchdown over the past two seasons, is an unrestricted free agent, as is starting safety Bryan Cook. Reserve cornerback Joshua Williams, who was phased out of the lineup in 2025 after playing 1,159 snaps over the prior three seasons on defense, will also hit the open market.
There’s not much left. Fulton might not return. Rookie third-rounder Nohl Williams flashed as a rookie, but the Chiefs didn’t trust him with regular work until McDuffie got hurt in Week 14. Chris Roland-Wallace played 190 snaps in his second year out of the slot before hitting injured reserve. Chamarri Conner also saw time in the slot, but he was inconsistent and might be needed at safety with Cook going into free agency. The Chiefs need multiple contributors who can step in next season.
Of course, they do have a lot invested elsewhere on their roster. Mahomes is in the middle of a 10-year, $450 million deal. Chris Jones reset the defensive tackle market when he signed a five-year, $158.8 million contract in free agency, and his $44.9 million cap hit will be the largest for any defensive player in football before the Chiefs adjust it in the days to come. Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith became the highest-paid players at center and guard, respectively, when they signed their extensions in Kansas City. Nick Bolton‘s $15 million salary is the fifth highest among off-ball linebackers. And Travis Kelce‘s $17.1 million salary was third among tight ends a year ago.
At the moment, though, Veach has cleared out a lot of cash. McDuffie’s $13.6 million fifth-year option is now off the books. Kelce is a free agent, and although the legendary tight end could return to Kansas City, it probably won’t be for $17 million again. The Chiefs also cut right tackle Jawaan Taylor and defensive tackle Mike Danna, freeing up an additional $29 million.
Where is that money going to go? Will the Chiefs use it to bring back their free agents, a class that includes Kelce, Watson, Cook and Leo Chenal? Will Veach go after another significant edge rusher to try to upgrade a pass rush that wasn’t reliably able to get home with four last season? Will he shrug off the Fulton mistake and spend more aggressively in the secondary? Or will the Chiefs target speed and playmakers on offense to make life easier for Mahomes as he returns from the ACL injury?
Some combination of those paths is probably where this goes. Kansas City was 25th in sack rate when blitzing last season, and although Spagnuolo’s never going to take his foot all the way off the gas, I wonder if the Chiefs might lean into trying to supplement that front four in the hopes of easing the load for an inexperienced secondary. I’m not sure Jeremiyah Love is in the cards for Kansas City, but Veach needs to find a back who is more explosive than Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco were for the past two years.
And after this trade, of course, Veach has more draft capital to work with than ever before. The Chiefs have three of the top 40 picks in the draft, including the ninth selection, as they try to surround their stars with young talent. Critics will point to late first-round picks that haven’t worked out for the Chiefs, such as Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Felix Anudike-Uzomah, but Veach and coach Andy Reid have had more successes in the draft than failures after we adjust for where they’ve picked.
The McDuffie trade isn’t a surprise given the history of how the Chiefs have valued cornerbacks, but what happens next might be one. If there was ever an opportunity for the Chiefs to change how they do business and radically reshape their roster in the Mahomes era, this is it. Until that happens, though, this feels like another bet by Veach that his team can overcome what looks like a deficit at CB and come out smiling on the other side.
Sports
Raiders trade Maxx Crosby to the Ravens for two first-round draft picks
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The Las Vegas Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens made a blockbuster trade ahead of the start of NFL free agency.
Las Vegas is trading five-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens, per multiple reports.
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Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) against the Arizona Cardinals during a preseason NFL game at State Farm Stadium on Aug. 23, 2025. (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)
The Raiders will receive two first-round picks from the Ravens, including the No. 14 overall pick in next month’s NFL draft, one report said.
The 28-year-old Crosby had 10 sacks last season and has reached double digits four times in his seven seasons.

Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackle Jonah Laulu (96) and defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) celebrate during the second half of an NFL football game against the Houston Texans in Houston, Texas, on Dec. 21, 2025. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
The Raiders last appeared in the playoffs back in 2021 but have gone 7-27 over the past two seasons. They have the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft, which is expected to land them Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are entering a new era, after firing longtime head coach John Harbaugh and replacing him with former Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.

Maxx Crosby of the Las Vegas Raiders sniffs smelling salts during an NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on November 20, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
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The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Winners and losers of the 2026 NHL trade deadline
The 2026 NHL trade deadline had an unusual cadence. There was a week of interesting deals and genuine surprises; a deadline day where nothing of consequence happened; and then absolutely chaos as a flurry of trades was completed before the timer ticked down to zero.
Overall, NHL teams made 20 trades involving 33 players on Friday. Some teams and players did quite well for themselves. Others did not.
Here are some winners and losers of a peculiar NHL trade deadline, from ESPN reporters Ryan C. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski.

WINNERS
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The Avalanche might be the best team in the NHL, and they are the odds-on favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Part of the reason is their addition of Brock Nelson at last season’s trade deadline. He is a proven second-line center behind Nathan MacKinnon, the kind of player they’d sought since Nazem Kadri left in 2022 after winning the Stanley Cup.
Adding Nicolas Roy on Thursday gave the Avs another proven two-way option down the middle, and someone who can provide secondary offense. Then they got Kadri back in a trade Friday, giving them the most dangerous center group in the NHL.
Obviously, MacKinnon will remain at first-line center, and Kadri and Nelson will split up second- and third-line duties. That then leaves Roy as Colorado’s fourth-line center. The Avs are now in a stronger position to win the fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history. If they do, March 6 could be the day that changed everything.
And if not, they can run it back again in 2026-27 because all four will still be under contract. — Clark
The Foligno family
Imagine growing up playing mini sticks with your brother, both of you dreaming that one day you’ll be suiting up for real in the NHL. Well, Marcus and Nick Foligno both achieved that goal — and now, they’re going to chase a Stanley Cup championship together in Minnesota.
The Wild brought in Chicago’s captain for “future considerations” — basically, the Blackhawks did right by their veteran leader by sending him to skate alongside family for a team with legitimate Cup contention aspirations.
Unsurprisingly, the Foligno wives were ecstatic to learn they’d be reunited for the rest of this season, and Nick couldn’t help but mention their departed mother looking down and smiling at her boys getting such a unique opportunity. Yes, the trade deadline is about making hockey deals, but there is also room for some wholesome, heartwarming content when the sport is more than just a game. — Shilton
Player empowerment
One of the defining trends of the deadline was having trades leak to the media before the focal point of said trade had agreed to waive his trade protection. It happened no less than five times, in deals involving Colton Parayko, Tyler Myers, Brayden Schenn, Jason Dickinson and MacKenzie Weegar. In most cases, the player involved eventually waived his no-trade or no-movement clause to facilitate the move. In two cases, the player did not.
Reports said that Myers was presented with a trade by the Vancouver Canucks to move to the Detroit Red Wings. He declined and eventually ended up being traded to the Dallas Stars, which was one of his preferred destinations. Meanwhile, media reports not only had the St. Louis Blues coming to Parayko with a trade to the Buffalo Sabres, they had the return on that trade reported out, too. Parayko refused to leave St. Louis for Buffalo, and the trade was dead.
Blues general manager Doug Armstrong said on Friday that the Blues checked phone records, texts and emails of staff members to find who leaked the trade. Perhaps it was the person who did the exact same thing in 2023, when the Blues were trying to compel defenseman Torey Krug to waive his trade protection.
Trade protection is a negotiated right in a player’s contract, usually at the cost of money or term. Clearly, something might have shifted at this deadline where public pressure is perceived to force a player’s hand. Good on Myers and Parayko for exercising their rights. — Wyshynski
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Not that the Ducks necessarily needed to react to what the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights did ahead of the deadline. But the Ducks are in the three-team race for the top spot in the Pacific Division, so they did two things:
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They made one of the most stunning moves of the deadline to get John Carlson from the Capitals.
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They also traded Ryan Strome away, in a decision that will have a greater impact this summer.
Anaheim has added veterans with extensive playoff experience in order to establish a culture that its young players will eventually call their own. Carlson is a Stanley Cup winner who fits within that part of the Ducks’ plan. He also gives them a right-handed puck mover who is also one more weapon in the offensive zone; he will come in handy come playoff time.
But what makes trading Strome just as important is that he had one more year left on his contract worth $5 million annually. Shedding that salary will help in the offseason, when the Ducks must sign new contracts for their restricted free agent class that includes Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger. — Clark
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Stick taps to GM Doug Armstrong for (a) actually making trades and (b) negotiating some serious returns.
Armstrong reeled in two first-round draft choices, two third-round selections, an NHL-ready player in Jonathan Drouin, one with potential to return to an NHL lineup in defenseman Justin Holl and goalie prospect Marcus Gidlof — all for veterans Brayden Schenn and Justin Faulk.
It fits perfectly with the Blues accepting that a rebuild/retool/re-whateveryouwantocallit is happening, and it’s the right time to cash in on creating a hopeful future. Armstrong also didn’t make any rash decisions on Robert Thomas or Jordan Kyrou just for the sake of it.
Now there is time to determine where St. Louis is going and how — or if — those players fit into the new direction before the offseason hits. Armstrong turned this lemon season for the Blues into a refreshing lemonade. — Shilton
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Has another general manager had a better 2026 than Craig Conroy of the Flames?
It started with the Rasmus Andersson trade with Vegas, getting a first-round pick, conditional second-rounder and defenseman Zach Whitecloud in a package for a pending unrestricted free agent. He then traded the remaining five years of MacKenzie Weegar‘s contract to the Utah Mammoth in a deal that included three second-round picks and college prospect Jonathan Castagna.
On deadline day, he made two change-of-scenery trades, acquiring forward Brennan Othmann from the Rangers and center Ryan Strome from the Ducks. Then, as the timer ticked down on the deadline, Calgary sent Nazem Kadri to Colorado for a conditional first, conditional second and an intriguing prospect in forward Max Curran for a 35-year-old center signed through 2028-29.
Conroy’s commitment to rebuilding is admirable in a league where teams are frightened by the teardown. Although it all comes down to drafting and development, Conroy has done a fantastic job of setting his team up for potential success. — Wyshynski

LOSERS
Goalie trade hype
The trade deadline is not the ideal time to acquire a goaltender. General managers have said in the past that it doesn’t give netminders enough time to get acclimated to new teammates and new systems before the playoffs arrive.
Perhaps that’s one reason not a single NHL goaltender was traded this week. Which is a shame. There were some contenders that could have used reinforcement in the crease, such as the Carolina Hurricanes, Montreal Canadiens and Vegas Golden Knights. There were several tantalizing names assumed to be available: Sergei Bobrovsky of the Panthers, Jordan Binnington of the Blues, Stuart Skinner of the Penguins, Anthony Stolarz of the Maple Leafs and Jesper Wallstadt of the Wild, according to ESPN’s Kevin Weekes.
But in the end, the only goalie news was one choosing to stay rather than move: Alex Nedeljkovic, signing a two-year contract extension with the Sharks. — Wyshynski
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Just when Buffalo is actually winning on the ice — it’s also losing. The Sabres haven’t made the playoff in 14 years, and unless they perform a massive slide in the next month, that drought will finally end by April. New GM Jarmo Kekalainen attempted to make his team better by trying to acquire Colton Parayko from the Blues. But despite Buffalo’s uptick, despite it change of direction, despite its excellent young core … Parayko gave a hard pass on becoming a Sabre, invoking his no-trade clause.
Parayko’s presence would likely have been that missing piece to put Buffalo over the top as a true contender. Instead, Kekalainen settled for adding Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn from Winnipeg. Fine players, sure, but they are depth contributors, not difference-makers. And their playoff résumés aren’t exactly sparkling (Schenn, for instance, was a team-worst minus-8 for the Jets last postseason).
Sam Carrick and Tanner Pearson can fill in around the edges for Buffalo, of course. It’s just a shame for the Sabres that when they try to go big, and finally do the right things, there are still obstacles standing in their way. — Shilton
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The Capitals enter Friday’s game slate four points out of the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot. They’ve played two more games than the Boston Bruins, who control that final playoff berth. It left the Capitals’ front office facing a dilemma about what it deemed was the best course of action for the remainder of the season.
This week, they traded forward Nic Dowd — which suggested they could be open for business in both directions. But in trading John Carlson, who might be the greatest defenseman in franchise history, it was a reality check on the present and the future.
Carlson’s departure means that captain Alex Ovechkin and winger Tom Wilson are the only players still on the roster from that 2018 Stanley Cup team. Ovechkin spoke with reporters Friday and said “it’s obviously a sad day. Probably the toughest day of my career, talking about personal-wise.”
The Capitals knew there would come a day when they would move on from Carlson and Ovechkin. Both players are in the final year of their respective contracts. But now that Carlson is gone, what does that mean for Ovechkin’s future? As he said, “I don’t know. I’m still here, so we’ll see what’s going to happen. It’s a hard one.” — Clark
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Last summer, Connor McDavid gave the Oilers this season and two additional ones to build a winner around him before he can leave as an unrestricted free agent. GM Stan Bowman addressed the team’s goaltending by acquiring Tristan Jarry of the Penguins … who hasn’t necessarily been a solution for the Oilers’ biggest problem.
The trade deadline afforded Bowman another chance at dramatically improving the roster. Instead, he made two middling trades with his former team, the Chicago Blackhawks: acquiring defensive defenseman Connor Murphy and depth centers Jason Dickinson and Colton Dach. The Dickinson trade saw Edmonton give up a conditional first-rounder in 2027 to get rid of Andrew Mangiapane’s contract, i.e. make one of Bowman’s mistakes go away.
There’s a finite amount of time the Oilers have left with McDavid, and a finite amount of resources they have through which to build him a Stanley Cup winner. This deadline was a waste of both of them. — Wyshynski
Whoever finishes fifth and sixth in the Pacific Division
Having six teams separated by eight points in the Pacific Division is going to make for amazing theater. It’s also going to make those teams that miss the playoffs feel a certain type of way. Especially when each team made at least one move ahead of the deadline — though each faces its unique set of circumstances:
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The Golden Knights are trying to win a second Cup but must try to find consistency amid the injuries they continue to battle.
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The Ducks believe they now have everything in place to make the playoffs for the first time in seven years.
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The Oilers are trying to return to a third consecutive Stanley Cup Final — and actually win this time.
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The Sharks are ahead of schedule, with the idea that a playoff berth could change their current trajectory.
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The Kraken missed out on Artemi Panarin but added help as they seek to make the playoffs for the second time in franchise history.
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The Kings are trying to win a playoff series for the first time since 2014, and are trying to do it in captain Anze Kopitar‘s final season.
Again … someone is going to be left feeling a certain kind of way in the Pacific in mid-April. — Clark
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The Bruins bodied their way back into the playoff picture this season, but GM Don Sweeney didn’t share his team’s tenacity at the deadline.
Boston seemed poised to add depth and give itself a real chance to not just reach the postseason but excel in it. The Bruins have earned, as they say, the right to reinforcements. What’s more, Sweeney had the draft capital (including multiple first-round choices), and yet he completed only minor transactions.
First, he acquired forwards Alexis Gendron and Massimo Rizzo from Philadelphia in exchange for forward Brett Harrison and defenseman Jackson Edward. Zero NHL games on their résumés. Then he got Lukas Reichel from Vancouver, who has played most of his season in the AHL.
It just feels like a missed opportunity for Boston to not add a single skater to help the team right now. Jeremy Swayman is back in form in the crease. The offense is rolling. There is so much potential for the Bruins and, well, it doesn’t seem like they’re taking advantage. — Shilton
Sports
Spain, France lead World Cup 2026 Power Rankings, 100 days out
It’s official: Tuesday, March 3 marks 100 days until the 2026 World Cup kicks off in earnest, when Mexico host South Africa in Mexico City on June 11. But before we get there, we have a few big hurdles to clear.
The last week in March will see the final six tournament spots claimed, with four teams from Europe and two more via an intercontinental playoff. We also have the dramatic, high-pressure final weeks of the European club season, in which any injuries to top players will undoubtedly impact World Cup chances for a wide range of nations depending on the severity. And then, weeks before the action begins, all 48 national team coaches will make their final roster cuts.
So, we’re launching our semiregular power rankings of how the field is shaping up. We polled all our ESPN FC reporters credentialed for this summer’s festivities, along with reporters from around the globe, on who they think are the top 15 strongest nations in the field right now. Yes, we know there are several big teams still hoping to qualify — Italy, in particular, received several conditional votes should they survive a playoff bracket with Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Northern Ireland — but there’s enough information out there to start sorting the contenders from the pretenders.
We’ll have another set of rankings to commemorate the 50-day mark (April 22) when the full field is locked in, and again in the run-up to the opening ceremony once rosters are finalized and we know whether injured players are fit enough or have to stay home this summer.
ESPN FC’S World Cup Power Rankings, 100 days out
Breaking down the top 15
1. SPAIN
Well, well, well. As near-unanimous No. 1 picks in our inaugural Power Rankings, scooping up 15 of 21 first-place votes, it appears as though this is already La Roja‘s world and we’re all just living in it. Will the World Cup run in much the same way, though?
They weren’t dynamic in qualifying despite topping their group over Bulgaria, Türkiye and Georgia with five wins from six matches, but they do have Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Ferran Torres to count on in attack. Cruising to victory at Euro 2024 without Rodri, their Ballon d’Or winning midfielder, showed that they can function with significant absentees, though a wobbly defense is a concern. Questions need to be answered around which two of Dean Huijsen, Robin Le Normand, Aymeric Laporte and Pau Cubarsí start at center back, while the goalkeeper should end up being Unai Simón despite David Raya‘s exceptional form at Arsenal.
Did we mention Lamine Yamal, though? The human cheat code for any packed defense, Yamal (22 goals+assists in 22 LaLiga games for Barcelona this season) will again be expected to do the impossible when needed, but there is concern about the sheer volume of minutes he’s racking up despite turning only 18 this past July. Also, the bigger issue around this team is their youth; veteran experience is often key at major tournaments, but where will that come from? A group containing Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay shouldn’t cause too much trouble for Luis de la Fuente & Co. upon arrival in the U.S., but tougher challenges will require them to really meet the moment in a way we’ve not seen since they won the Euros.
2. FRANCE
Les Bleus are a powerhouse from top to bottom, no matter how you assess their squad or talent pool. Every position is filled multiple times over with proven quality and bankable star power, and after cruising through qualifying with five wins from six and Kylian Mbappé scoring plenty, the future looks bright again.
But how easily can they shrug off the heartbreak of losing the 2022 final to Argentina on penalties after a 3-3 extra-time thriller in which Mbappé scored a hat trick and really should have had a winner late on? And is there any anxiety over the confirmed end of the Didier Deschamps era as manager — he announced in January that he would step down as manager after France’s World Cup run? Pressure to send their boss off on a high note could wear heavily, and a group containing Africa Cup of Nations champions Senegal plus Norway (hello, Erling Haaland) could make for a tricky farewell party.
About Mbappé: Questions about his fitness have been whispered around Real Madrid for some time, and news Monday that he’s getting some treatment for a sprained knee mean he’ll need to work back up to his best. If the likes of Michael Olise, Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé are at their best, Mbappé can relax a little, but questions around the fullback positions (where most of the options have had lackluster seasons) do at least invite a little concern.
3. ARGENTINA
We’re expecting this summer to be Cristiano Ronaldo‘s proverbial last dance (more on him later), but it might be the final curtain for Lionel Messi at the international level as well, and it’s hard to know how to process all this happening at a single World Cup. That said, there’s a vibe that he’s playing with house money to some degree having finally clinched one in 2022, when the Albicelestes beat France in one of the most enthralling World Cup finals ever. Winning the past two Copa América competitions and being one of the first teams worldwide to clinch their 2026 World Cup spot — in March 2025, to be exact! — shows that they’re the ultimate tournament team.
Argentina are in transition between the Messi generation and that next wave, but they’re still a credible contender to do what no team has done since Brazil (1958, 1962) and win back-to-back editions. Even without Ángel Di María, there’s quality all around Messi, from Rodrigo De Paul, Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister in midfield to Lautaro Martínez up front. Plus, Emi Martínez remains one of the best (and most entertaining) goalkeepers around. The wild card will be Julián Álvarez, who has struggled for form and goals this season with Atlético Madrid, but a group stage containing Algeria, Austria and Jordan should be smooth sailing for Lionel Scaloni and his experienced team.
4. ENGLAND
Ahh, England. The Three Lions. Is it coming home? And will it ever come home again? The trick here — spoiler alert — is as it always is with England: trying to fit the right combo of superstars together and plug the gaps (left back, holding midfield) with the right personnel to make it all sing. Harry Kane will be tasked with the goals, Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon the quality from wide positions and Declan Rice the dynamism from midfield, but chemistry and coherence will be key here if the individuals are to shine.
The right midfield combo around Rice and the right center back pairing from a host of options with clear pros/cons will also be weighing heavily on Thomas Tuchel’s mind, and he might well lament the lack of an “easy” opponent in the group stage to make adjustments on the fly. Croatia, Ghana and Panama will test them to the fullest, meaning that March’s tune-ups against Uruguay and Japan carry a little more importance than fans might be hoping for with just 100 days until the tournament’s first game.
5. BRAZIL
Are the Seleção back and ready to challenge? Fresh off back-to-back quarterfinal exits, Brazil have tons of talent at their disposal as you’d expect, but this time, they are rolling into battle with the charismatic superstar-whisperer Carlo Ancelotti as manager. If anyone can create a winning formula from the chaotic energy of Rodrygo, Raphinha and Vinícius Jr., it would be the man who took home 11 trophies in his second stint as Real Madrid boss.
However, as is always the case at the World Cup, their defending will need to be up to par. Here is where things still seem a work in progress as Ancelotti tries to build around Arsenal star Gabriel and Liverpool keeper Alisson in the pursuit of clean sheets and calmness. Defeats to Bolivia and Japan in recent months — the latter saw Brazil hold a 2-0 lead into the second half before conceding three times in 19 minutes — have shown that balance remains elusive, with a lot riding on Bruno Guimarães and Casemiro to knit things together in midfield.
6. PORTUGAL
Yes, this is the only major trophy Cristiano Ronaldo has yet to lift in the air surrounded by jubilant teammates … but will 2026’s World Cup end any differently to the other five he has played in? Fourth place in 2006 is his best effort yet, followed by exits in the round of 16 (twice), group stage and quarterfinals, with plenty of Ronaldo tears that followed.
These days, Ronaldo reliance is waning somewhat, but that’s more down to the volume of exciting talent around him than any diminishment in his own powers. Yet will coach Roberto Martinez take that decisive step to make CR7 a support player rather than automatic starter? Regardless of how it shakes out, Bruno Fernandes will be Portugal’s chief playmaker and antagonist in the attacking third, Rafael Leão offers plenty of tricks from the wing, and a midfield with Bernardo Silva, Vitinha and Rúben Neves will overwhelm most opponents simply by showing up. That’s before you factor in the intangibles Nuno Mendes brings from the fullback position, as well as Rúben Dias keeping the defense organized.
A group containing Colombia, Uzbekistan and an intercontinental qualifier (New Caledonia, Jamaica or DR Congo) should yield little real challenge, but we’ll know more about their chances after they play co-hosts Mexico and the U.S. at the end of March.
7. GERMANY
Always spoken of as one of the heavyweights in international soccer, recent years have made Germany a bit of a history lesson in that regard. Despite boasting three European Championship crowns (1972, 1980, 1996) and four World Cups (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014), Die Mannschaft were bounced out at the group stage in each of the past two World Cups. Winning five of six in qualifying should ease immediate concerns, but there are question marks up and down the starting XI and little time left to figure things out.
Talent has never been an issue and still isn’t in 2026 — though Joshua Kimmich, Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala need help around them — and a group stage with Curacao, Ivory Coast and Ecuador should enable them to reach the round of 32. It’s anyone’s guess as to how they proceed from there.
8. NETHERLANDS
The Oranje left it late to finally secure their spot at this summer’s festivities, drawing 1-1 with Poland and then hammering Lithuania 4-0 in Amsterdam during the final round of qualifiers to make it certain. Their inconsistency makes them a tough team to predict when it comes to the World Cup, where they’ve been drawn against Japan, Tunisia and a UEFA qualifier (one of Ukraine, Sweden, Poland or Albania), but individual quality and defensive toughness can take you far.
When it comes to these two elements, Ronald Koeman‘s side have plenty of both: Memphis Depay (8 goals) will be the primary goal threat, Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen offer different flavors of flair on the flanks, and the trio of Frenkie de Jong, Tijjani Reijnders and Ryan Gravenberch offer culture and class in midfield. (Don’t overlook Xavi Simons too, much as he’s struggling to assert himself at Tottenham Hotspur right now). At the back, the peerless Virgil van Dijk is surrounded by plenty of dynamism, and teams will find it hard to carve through the Dutch defense. Upcoming fixtures with Norway and Ecuador should give us a clearer sense of where this team stands.
9. MOROCCO
Fresh off defeat to Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations final, the surprise 2022 World Cup semifinalists will be all too keen to show that they are no fluke at this level. Buoyed by a perfect 8-0-0 record in qualifying — making them one of the first countries to officially punch their ticket to this summer’s competition — and with 12 players scoring in the process, they bring a tenacity that makes them a tough opponent every time. Forwards Youssef En-Nesyri and Ayoub El Kaabi are competent around goal, there’s a ton of big five European league experience throughout the midfield, and Achraf Hakimi is well-established as one of the best attacking fullbacks in the game right now.
A group with Brazil, Haiti and Scotland will offer three distinct challenges for manager Walid Regragui, but they have enough quality and confidence to make another deep run.
10. COLOMBIA
After missing out on the 2022 edition, Los Cafeteros are back and perhaps better than ever in 2026, fresh off a strong qualification performance (third overall in CONMEBOL, with seven wins and seven draws in 18 games) and robust defensive effort. Stars such as Luis Díaz and Luis Suárez (not that one) are contributing goals, with 11 between them in qualifying, while playmaker James Rodríguez is using a spell at Major League Soccer’s Minnesota United FC to get in tip-top shape. It’s not just the results they’re getting, but the run of form: Undefeated since a 2-1 loss in Brazil a year ago, they’ve looked good against several World Cup teams (Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Paraguay) and thumped co-hosts Mexico 4-0 to give a sense of their readiness.
Drawn against Portugal, debutants Uzbekistan and an intercontinental qualifier (New Caledonia, Jamaica or DR Congo), they should progress comfortably and cause trouble for whomever draws them in the knockout stages.
2:05
Are Belgium past their prime for the World Cup?
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens break down ESPN FC’s World Cup Power Rankings and debate which teams they feel don’t belong in the top 15.
11. BELGIUM
Belgium have been World Cup mainstays for the past decade-plus, with their steady presence — including a run to the quarterfinals in 2014 and a third-place finish in 2018 — led by the country’s “Golden Generation” of talent. But that talent isn’t aging gracefully, with Axel Witsel (37 years old), Kevin De Bruyne (34) and Romelu Lukaku (32) all in decline, to the extent that this team feels like a work in progress.
The green shoots of rebirth are there through the spine of this team: Charles De Ketelaere is their next playmaker-elect in the final third along with Jérémy Doku, while Youri Tielemans adds dynamism in midfield, Arthur Theate is a defensive force in his own right and Thibaut Courtois remains elite at the goalkeeping position. A group draw with Egypt, Iran (for now) and New Zealand, however, should assure they book another knockout round appearance where their individual talent could help overcome any structural flaws.
12. NORWAY
It’s so hard to know what to make of the Landslaget right now. They have a core of incredible players — led by Martin Ødegaard and Erling Haaland — and cruised through World Cup qualifying, going 8-0-0 with 37 goals scored (just five conceded) against Italy, Israel, Estonia and Moldova. And yet, this is the first World Cup for which they’ve qualified since 1998, so it’s hard to predict how qualification form will translate to the big stage. Upcoming games against fellow World Cup participants Netherlands and Switzerland should offer some clarity, but it’s clear that they’ll need the goals of Haaland — who netted a stunning SIXTEEN times in qualifying — if they’re to escape a difficult group.
13. SENEGAL
Senegal will hit the World Cup as one of the in-form national teams thanks to their impressive run in the 35th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations at the beginning of the year. They rode an impressive collective resolve — and overcame the chaos of the final vs. Morocco — to win the tournament. Upcoming friendlies against Peru and Gambia will reveal little as to their World Cup readiness, but a seasoned team led by Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, Kalidou Koulibaly and Ismaïla Sarr is as dangerous as any. That said, being drawn against France and Norway means they cannot afford to be anything less than perfection.
14. CROATIA
No matter how often we think Croatia can’t turn on the style at this level, led by seemingly ageless 40-year-old midfielder Luka Modric and a strong veteran presence up and down the squad, they remain formidable at this level no matter what. Finishing second in 2018 and third in 2022 feels like a tall order to replicate this summer, but a favorable group draw — they will face El Tri, South Africa and a UEFA qualifier (one of Czechia, Republic of Ireland, Denmark or North Macedonia — at least gives them a strong edge to the round of 32. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess.
15. JAPAN
Sneaking into the rankings are the Samurai Blue, as they’re colloquially known. While their regional strength in Asia is largely undisputed, we will get a true measure of their World Cup readiness with friendlies against fellow qualifiers Scotland and England at the end of March. That said, we expect them to compete hard as they always do at this level, having made it to the round of 16 at the past two editions thanks to their collective work rate and individual skill. (Finishing first in their group last time out, with wins over Germany and Spain, speaks to their ability.)
That said, this World Cup could prove trickier if captain Wataru Endo is unable to suit up. The Liverpool midfielder underwent ankle surgery and will miss the rest of the 2025-26 season, putting his summer plans in jeopardy.
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