Fashion
Rupee at 95/$: What it means for India’s textile sector
A perfect storm behind the rupee slide
The current depreciation is not cyclical; it is geopolitical and structural.
The Indian rupee’s sharp fall is creating a dual impact, boosting export competitiveness while simultaneously inflating input, energy, and logistics costs.
MMF segments are most exposed, as import dependence erodes margin gains from currency depreciation.
Demand weakness in the US and EU limits the benefit of improved pricing, creating a cost–demand mismatch.
- Oil shock from Middle East conflict: Brent crude surged past $110–115/barrel, sharply increasing India’s import bill
- Foreign capital outflows: Over $19 billion exited Indian equities, pressuring the currency
- Strong US dollar and high interest rates: Capital shifting towards dollar assets
- Trade and geopolitical uncertainty: Weakening investor confidence and export outlook
Together, these forces have pushed the rupee to record lows, with risks of further depreciation if conditions persist.
The Indian rupee’s fall past ₹95 per US dollar marks its steepest annual decline in 14 years, representing a critical moment for the textile and apparel (T&A) industry, reshaping cost structures, export competitiveness, and sourcing strategies simultaneously. While a weaker rupee traditionally boosts exporters by improving rupee realisations on dollar-denominated sales and enhancing India’s price competitiveness against peers like Bangladesh and Vietnam, the current depreciation is occurring alongside a sharp rise in crude oil prices and global uncertainty, creating a far more complex operating environment.
The industry’s heavy dependence on imported inputs, particularly in the man-made fibre (MMF) value chain, including polyester, PTA, MEG, dyes, and specialty chemicals, means that the currency shock is directly translating into higher raw material costs. This is further compounded by rising energy and logistics expenses, as fuel-linked inflation drives up power tariffs, freight rates, and processing costs across spinning, dyeing, and finishing segments. As a result, the initial export margin gains are already being diluted, especially for MMF-based manufacturers and vertically integrated players with significant import exposure.
At the same time, rupee volatility is intensifying working capital pressures across the value chain. Higher input costs are inflating inventory values, while fluctuating exchange rates are making export realisations less predictable and increasing the cost of hedging. For small and mid-sized enterprises, this could tighten liquidity cycles and increase dependence on short-term financing.
On the demand side, the situation remains equally challenging: key export markets such as the US and EU are grappling with inflation, cautious consumer spending, and elevated retail inventories, limiting order visibility despite improved pricing competitiveness from India. This creates a structural paradox where Indian suppliers are more cost-effective globally yet face subdued demand and heightened price resistance from international buyers.
Segment-wise, cotton textiles stand relatively insulated due to lower import dependency, whereas MMF and synthetic segments face the sharpest cost pressures, and garment exporters operate in a narrow margin band between currency gains and demand weakness.
In response, the industry is already undergoing strategic recalibration. Manufacturers are gradually shifting towards cotton and blended products to reduce exposure to volatile petrochemical inputs, while also strengthening foreign exchange risk management through increased hedging. There is a renewed push towards supply chain localisation, particularly for chemicals and trims, alongside efforts to renegotiate pricing with global buyers though with limited success in a demand-constrained environment.
Looking ahead, much will depend on the trajectory of crude oil prices, the potential for further rupee depreciation towards the ₹100/$ mark, and the effectiveness of policy interventions in stabilising currency markets. Ultimately, the rupee’s sharp fall is proving to be a double-edged sword for the T&A sector: offering short-term export advantages, but simultaneously accelerating cost inflation and exposing structural vulnerabilities, thereby forcing companies to prioritise efficiency, agility, and financial discipline in an increasingly volatile global trade landscape.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DL)
Fashion
PET prices decline after April peak amid weak polyester operating rate
The Indian PET resin market witnessed significant week-on-week fluctuations during March-May ****. During the first week of March, Asia domestic India PET bottle flakes prices were assessed near $*.** per kg and remained largely stable on a weekly basis. However, during the second week of March, prices sharply increased to around $*.** per kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of nearly ** per cent amid tight domestic supply conditions and reduced producer operating rates. In the third and fourth weeks of March, prices increased further to nearly $*.** per kg, marking an additional weekly gain of around * per cent. The bullish momentum continued into the first week of April, when prices touched nearly $*.** per kg, reflecting another week-on-week increase of approximately * per cent.
From mid-April onward, the market entered a correction phase as downstream polyester demand remained weak, and buyers shifted towards cautious procurement activity. During the second and third weeks of April, prices eased gradually towards $*.** per kg, indicating a weekly decline of around *–* per cent. The softer trend continued through late April and early May, with prices declining towards $*.** per kg and later $*.** per kg due to subdued polyester operating rates and sufficient domestic availability. By May **, ****, Asia domestic India PET bottle flakes prices were assessed around $*.*** per kg, reflecting an overall decline of nearly * per cent from the April peak, while Asia FOB India PET Bottle Flakes prices were reported near $*.*** per kg during the same period.
Fashion
Georgia’s apparel imports expand as post-war spending strengthens
The country imported apparel worth $**.*** million during January-March ****, up **.* per cent from $**.*** million in the corresponding period of ****. The latest figures indicate that inbound apparel shipments have remained on a steady growth path since ****, according to *fashion.com/market-intelligence/texpro-textile-and-apparel/” target=”_blank”>sourcing intelligence tool TexPro.
The Russia-Ukraine war has had a significant economic impact on Georgia. The conflict triggered a large influx of Russian and Ukrainian migrants, which initially acted as an economic boon for the country. It fuelled rapid growth, lifted consumer spending, and increased demand for housing, services, textiles, and apparel. However, the war also deepened geopolitical polarisation and accelerated Georgia’s economic and energy reliance on Moscow.
Fashion
US Upland cotton sales rebound after steep decline: USDA
Net sales of Upland cotton for the 2025–26 marketing year totalled 131,800 RB (running bales, each weighing 226.8 kg), up sharply from 47,700 RB in the previous week and 16 per cent higher than the prior four-week average. The recovery followed a steep decline in the week ending May 7 when sales had fallen 61 per cent week-on-week and 66 per cent below the four-week average.
US Upland cotton export sales rebounded to 131,800 RB in the week ending May 14, 2026, after the previous week’s sharp fall.
Pakistan led buying, followed by Vietnam and Turkiye, while new-crop sales surged to 216,000 RB.
Shipments stayed below the recent average.
Pima sales improved slightly but remained weak, with India the top buyer and destination.
Pakistan emerged as the largest buyer during the latest reporting week with purchases of 65,300 RB, including reductions of 200 RB. Vietnam followed with 26,100 RB, including 4,500 RB switched from China, 900 RB switched from South Korea, 100 RB switched from Japan, and reductions of 4,400 RB. Turkiye booked 20,100 RB, including reductions of 100 RB, while Malaysia purchased 5,300 RB and China 3,400 RB. These gains were partly offset by reductions of 1,100 RB for Peru and 900 RB for South Korea.
New crop Upland sales for the 2026–27 marketing year rose sharply to 216,000 RB, compared with 29,700 RB in the previous week. Pakistan accounted for the bulk of new crop sales with 206,100 RB, followed by Indonesia and Turkiye at 4,500 RB each, and Mexico at 900 RB.
Upland export shipments remained broadly steady during the week. Exports totalled 289,400 RB, unchanged from the previous week but 11 per cent below the prior four-week average. Vietnam remained the leading destination with 110,800 RB, followed by Turkiye at 28,700 RB, Pakistan at 26,000 RB, Mexico at 22,100 RB, and Bangladesh at 21,200 RB.
Pima cotton sales showed a marginal weekly improvement but remained well below recent average levels. Net sales for the 2025–26 marketing year totalled 9,500 RB, up 2 per cent from the previous week but 52 per cent below the prior four-week average. India remained the largest buyer with 7,600 RB, followed by Pakistan at 1,100 RB, Peru at 500 RB, Thailand at 200 RB, and Vietnam at 100 RB.
New crop Pima sales for the 2026–27 marketing year stood at 7,700 RB, slightly below 7,900 RB in the previous week. Sales were reported for Peru at 4,000 RB and India at 3,700 RB.
Pima export shipments declined further during the week. Exports totalled 9,900 RB, down 18 per cent from the previous week and 19 per cent below the prior four-week average. India was the top destination with 4,600 RB, followed by China at 3,200 RB, Costa Rica at 1,700 RB, Pakistan at 300 RB, and Mexico at 100 RB.
Overall, the latest USDA data indicate a recovery in US Upland cotton export sales after the previous week’s sharp fall, supported mainly by strong buying from Pakistan, Vietnam, and Turkiye. However, export shipments remained below the recent average, while Pima demand continued to show weakness despite India’s sustained buying interest.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)
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