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Trump’s war could see fuel rationing and global recession within months, experts warn

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Trump’s war could see fuel rationing and global recession within months, experts warn


A global recession and widespread fuel rationing are likely if the conflict in the Middle East does not end soon, a leading economic body has warned ahead of a meeting of international allies to try to find a way to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oxford Economics’s latest research shows that the number of tankers passing through the Strait is already down 98 per cent, and if the key shipping route remains closed for an extended period it would see existing oil inventories continually depleted and the current shortfall of 2m barrels per day rising sharply.

That would mean a shortage around the world of 12 per cent of usual oil consumption, requiring fuel rationing and a big hit to world economic growth this year.

“In our prolonged Iran war scenario, we estimate the gap widens to around 13m barrels per day by the sixth month,” said head of oil and gas forecasting, Bridget Payne.

“That represents an unprecedented shortage of around 12 per cent of consumption, leading to widespread rationing concentrated in emerging economies, with significant hits to activity and supply chain disruption.

“Our modelling shows this scenario would trigger a global recession and slow world GDP growth to 1.4 per cent in 2026.”

Oxford’s research shows that the need for rationing would accelerate from the fourth month onward, with the US and Canada among the most protected from this due to both their large domestic production of oil and also their refining capabilities.

Europe, with better refining and strong government policy, sits on a middle ground – but “remains exposed if disruption is prolonged”, says the report.

“Emerging economies across the Asia Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa are the most exposed, combining heavy import dependence with limited inventory cover and, in many cases, weak fiscal and institutional capacity to manage shortages,” it adds.

(Middle East Images/AFP via Getty)

There are concerns in Bangladesh that it may be the first nation to run out of fuel. Drivers have been pictured queuing for hours to fill up their tanks, while universities have closed as the nation tries to protect its diminishing reserves.

Elsewhere, a raft of countries have taken proactive steps to protect their supplies.

Egypt has ordered shops and restaurants to close early to save on energy consumption, Pakistan has enacted a four-day work week, Philippines has ordered government fuel consumption reduced and Myanmar introducing alternate driving days.

Oxford further reports “panic buying and black markets for LPG” (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) cropping up in India and petrol stations being empty in Thailand.

It comes as foreign secretary Yvette Cooper hosts talks with a coalition of countries to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Britain’s economy is “especially exposed” to spiralling prices because of its reliance on gas‑fired power, with fertiliser supply disruption also contributing to food price inflation which is expected to surge close to 10 per cent later this year.

Keir Starmer has been cautioned the public that price rises are “inescapable” this year due to the conflict in the Middle East, but the government has repeatedly said there is no call for fuel rationing at this stage – though they remain monitoring matters “hour by hour”.

Mr Starmer has also confirmed a virtual gathering will take place on Thursday hosting over 30 nations – not including the US – with a view to finding solutions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier in March, a former BP chief who served as advisor to Gordon Brown when he was prime minister said that the UK should prepare for fuel shortages and urged the government to take stock to ensure “crucial sectors [like] the health service, food supply, hospitals” were amply supplied.

On Wednesday night Donald Trump made further comments to suggest the war would end in weeks rather than months, but “the military timeline differs from the economic one,” said Oxford Economics’ chief global economist Ryan Sweet in response.

“The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, and the baseline assumes that it won’t change until the end of April, removing additional oil supply from the market and adding to the economic costs with each passing day.”

The firm are forecasting average prices for Brent crude oil to be at $113 across April to June. On Thursday morning it sat at $109.

“Governments have been left scrambling to try to limit the impact on companies and consumers, with more rationing of energy likely to come into play,” said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club.

(Getty Images)

“The UK government has held off announcing short-term support for sections of society which will be worst hit by the ramp-up in energy bills, with specific help not expected until the autumn. At this stage, with the government still mulling how to alleviate the pain of the energy shock, there could still be phased in hikes to fuel duty, as planned, from September.

“The big concern will be about further damage to energy facilities across the Gulf. The repair work is already likely to take years, and further destruction is likely to keep oil and gas prices elevated for even longer. Brent crude has jumped sharply, reflecting these worries, and European and UK gas futures have also jumped and are set to stay highly volatile.

“Around a fifth of global LNG supplies are usually transported through the Strait of Hormuz, but it remains largely impassable, and it’s becoming clear that there is going to be no easy exit from this war, with a lack of planning increasingly evident.”

Meanwhile, a new report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has also highlighted the state of concern among British businesses over energy costs across the second half of the year.

Over half (55 per cent) of businesses expressed some level of concern about energy prices, rising to nearly three-quarters (74 per cent) for businesses with 10 or more employees. In addition, almost two in five (37 per cent) of firms with 10-plus employees said they held concerns over international conflicts impacting supply chains across the coming year.

The questions were asked of businesses during March, after the Middle East conflict had started.



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Market recap: 6 of top-10 most-valued firms add Rs 74,111 crore; Reliance biggest winner

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Market recap: 6 of top-10 most-valued firms add Rs 74,111 crore; Reliance biggest winner


The combined market valuation of six of India’s top-10 most valued companies rose by Rs 74,111.57 crore last week, with Reliance Industries emerging as the biggest gainer. The rally came during a volatile trading week in which the BSE Sensex advanced 177.36 points, or 0.23%.According to news agency ANI, Reliance Industries added Rs 24,696.89 crore to its valuation, taking its total market capitalisation to Rs 18,33,117.70 crore.Tata Consultancy Services saw its valuation jump by Rs 19,338.68 crore to Rs 8,38,401.33 crore, while ICICI Bank added Rs 14,515.93 crore to reach a market capitalisation of Rs 9,06,901.32 crore.The valuation of Life Insurance Corporation of India climbed Rs 9,076.37 crore to Rs 5,14,443.69 crore.Meanwhile, Bajaj Finance gained Rs 3,797.83 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 5,70,515.57 crore, while Larsen & Toubro added Rs 2,685.87 crore to Rs 5,40,228.21 crore.

Airtel, HUL among laggards

On the losing side, Bharti Airtel witnessed the sharpest erosion in market value, losing Rs 20,229.67 crore to settle at Rs 11,40,295.49 crore.The market valuation of Hindustan Unilever declined by Rs 16,212.18 crore to Rs 5,17,380 crore, while State Bank of India lost Rs 12,784.4 crore in valuation to Rs 8,76,077.92 crore.HDFC Bank also saw its market capitalisation dip by Rs 2,094.35 crore to Rs 11,79,974.90 crore.Reliance Industries retained its position as India’s most valued company, followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and LIC.

Markets end volatile week with modest gains

Ajit Mishra, SVP, research at Religare Broking Ltd, said markets ended the week with marginal gains amid a “highly volatile and range-bound trading environment”.“Benchmark indices witnessed sharp intraday swings throughout the week, driven by persistent rupee weakness, mixed global cues, sectoral rotation, and continued uncertainty around inflation and interest rates,” he said, as quoted by ANI.Benchmark indices recovered on Friday, with the Sensex closing 231.99 points higher at 75,415.35 and the NSE Nifty rising 64.60 points to settle at 23,719.30.Analysts cited optimism surrounding possible progress in US-Iran peace negotiations and easing Middle East tensions as factors supporting market sentiment.Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, was quoted by news agency PTI as saying that domestic markets traded with a “mild positive bias” due to buying at lower levels and constructive global cues.“Globally, the AI investment theme remained the primary driver, while domestically, financial stocks led the gains,” he said.Brent crude prices climbed 2.3% to $104.7 per barrel, while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,891.21 crore in the previous session.



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Why essentials like eggs, bread and milk cost so much more now

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Why essentials like eggs, bread and milk cost so much more now



Six supermarket brand eggs cost £1 in 2022. How much are they now, why have they gone up, and is anyone profiteering?



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Red tape, not bad luck, hits capital | The Express Tribune

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Red tape, not bad luck, hits capital | The Express Tribune



LAHORE:

Imagine a country sitting at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia, with a population of 250 million, abundant natural resources, and a GDP exceeding $450 billion, yet struggling to convince even its own businesspeople to invest at home.

That is Pakistan’s continued uncomfortable reality in 2026, and the way things are going, the business community believes that even after elevating higher, in the past one year due to perfect diplomacy, the government needs to take strict action against those civil servants and state officials, who still try to slow the pace of overseas and local investment as well as development work, which has jeopardised the growth of the country.

“Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan fell 31% during the first 10 months of financial year 2025-26, with total inflows coming in at $1.409 billion against $2.035 billion during the same period a year earlier,” said Mian Shafqat Ali, Founder of the Pakistan Industrial and Traders Association Front. He raised alarm over what he calls a deepening investment crisis, warning that both local and foreign investment has dipped to one of its lowest levels in recent memory.

He added that the root cause of this decline is not a lack of opportunity, but a system that actively discourages investors at every step. “The real obstacle in the way of investment is the layers upon layers of bureaucratic hurdles. Without removing these barriers, the dream of increasing investment cannot be realised.”

He noted that investors, both domestic and foreign, are deeply sensitive to the environment they operate in, and Pakistan’s current legal and regulatory framework, unpredictable energy policies, fluctuating exchange rates, and ad hoc government decisions have created an atmosphere of uncertainty that keeps capital away.

The business community by and large thinks that once the US-Israel-Iran conflict is settled fully, Pakistan can have better opportunities; however they simultaneously say that to grab those opportunities, “we need to settle our systems, which are dominated by anti-investment and anti-business culture”.

There are systems, which welcome and protect overseas as well as local investment; those societies belong to the first world or second world; “unfortunately here in Pakistan we are still unable to manage the smooth flow of Chinese investments, whom we call ‘iron brothers’,” said Bilal Hanif, a Lahore-based businessman.

“We keep building new institutions and launching new investment windows, but nothing changes on the ground because the real problem is structural. A foreign investor does not just look at your pitch; he looks at your court system, your tax regime, and whether rules will be the same two years from now. On all these counts, we are falling short,” he said.

Pakistan has averaged barely $2 billion in annual FDI over the past 26 years; a figure that expert bodies like the Pakistan Business Council say should be at least $12 billion per year, or roughly 3% of GDP, to meet basic development benchmarks. Meanwhile, regional competitors such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and even smaller economies like Bangladesh have consistently attracted far greater inflows, benefiting from predictable regulations, stronger investor protection, and long-term policy continuity.

Mian Shafqat Ali was clear that the failure does not rest with any single institution. He said the problem is not the fault of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) or any other body, but rather the deeply entrenched systems that make doing business in Pakistan unnecessarily complicated.

“Until policymakers are willing to make difficult structural and political decisions, investment will remain weak, no matter how many new institutions are created,” he warned.

What investors consistently ask for is not complicated; it is political stability, simple regulations, and confidence that policies of today will not be reversed tomorrow. Pakistan, unfortunately, has struggled to offer any of these in a reliable manner. Frequent political disruptions, leadership changes, and policy discontinuity have created uncertainty that discourages long-term capital, and the capital does not avoid Pakistan because of a lack of opportunity, it avoids uncertainty.

“Government should move beyond announcements and focus on real structural reforms, overhauling the regulatory framework, simplifying business registration processes, ensuring energy availability at competitive rates and most importantly, providing a stable and consistent policy environment as without fixing the foundation, everything else is meaningless,” Ali added.



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