Business
Iran war upends spring housing market. Here’s what real estate agents are seeing
FILE PHOTO: A for sale sign is shown for a residential home in Encinitas, California, U.S. July 25, 2025.
Mike Blake | Reuters
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The all-important spring housing market is well underway, but expectations are falling short due to the war in Iran and its impact on both the U.S. economy and consumer sentiment.
Mortgage rates, which were previously forecast to be far lower this spring than last, are now much higher, and concerns over employment and inflation are throwing cold water on pent-up homebuyer demand.
Buyers in the first quarter of this year were more concerned about the economy and mortgage rates than they were about home prices, according to real estate agents who participated in the quarterly CNBC Housing Market Survey.
“They’re fearful of the war, they’re fearful of gas prices, [for] their job security,” said Faith Harmer, an agent in the Las Vegas metropolitan area.
The CNBC Housing Market Survey is a national inquiry of real estate agents selected randomly across the United States. Responses for the first-quarter survey were collected between March 24 and March 30. This quarter, 70 agents shared their insights.
When asked about their buyers’ primary concern, about one-third of agents said the economy, while another third said mortgage rates. The latter marked a big jump from just 26% in the fourth quarter.
Only 9% of agents in the first-quarter survey said prices were their buyers’ biggest concern, down from 18% in the previous period.
This should come as no surprise, as the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit a low of 5.99% the day before the Iran war started and then began to climb. It’s now hovering around 6.5%.
Still, while most agents said prices were either flat or falling, nearly twice as many agents, 29%, reported home prices rising during the first quarter than did in the previous quarter. Price dynamics can vary widely depending on the market and region of the country.
But affordability is not improving as much as most experts had forecast. When asked how affordability was hitting buyers, 19% of agents said it was causing them to get out of the market. That was up from just 11% at the end of last year.
More than half of agents reported at least one contract cancellation.
“Buyers that were on the fence and deciding to buy are now on the fence and going the other direction, saying, ‘I’m not going to buy,'” said Eric Bramlett, an agent in Austin, Texas.
As buyer demand drops, homes are sitting on the market longer. In the first quarter, 31% of agents reported that their listings were on the market for more than six weeks, compared with 26% in the fourth quarter.
“We just had one recently where they wanted what they wanted, and they wouldn’t come down to a price that the market could bear,” Harmer, the agent in Las Vegas, said. “So, in the end, they just pulled it off the market.”
Sellers are now more worried about that wait time. Fully 37% of responding agents said time on the market was their sellers’ top concern, compared with 30% at the end of last year.
That took share from price as sellers’ top concern, falling from nearly half of agents ranking it first to 39%.
Still, fewer agents reported price cuts than the previous quarter, but that may be the result of seasonal dynamics and the impact of lower mortgage rates in the middle of the first quarter, which gave buyers more purchasing power.
That may also be why fewer agents said they had to delist homes compared with the fourth quarter, when agents reported a slower-than-usual fall market with more frustrated sellers.
Even as concerns over the economy and interest rates rise, agents in the first quarter still said the market was either in the buyer’s favor or balanced. The share that called it a buyer’s market did drop quarter to quarter, from 42% to 36%, likely due to those new buyer headwinds – higher mortgage rates, the war and a weaker job market. And sellers are taking note.
“We’ve had two sellers who were planning on listing in May already decide, ‘Let’s hold, let’s search later in the summer for our next home to buy, and then we’ll try and list in the fall,'” said Dana Bull, an agent in the Boston area. “So they originally thought that the spring would be perfect for them, because it just felt like it was going to be the best time, and now they don’t feel as confident, and they want to wait and see.”
Just over half of agents surveyed said they expect the market to improve as the spring goes on, but that share is way down from the end of last year, when there was no war in the picture.
A higher share of agents said they expect the market to stay the same as last quarter, which is significant, given that the market is going from the historically slowest season for housing to the usually busiest.
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Business
Spirit’s collapse, high fuel prices test limits of summer vacation spending
Travelers walk through the terminal at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on May 1, 2026.
Leslie Josephs | CNBC
Higher fuel prices are testing how badly consumers want to travel this summer, whether flying or driving.
Airfare hasn’t been this high since May 2022, when airlines stumbled out of the pandemic with aircraft and employee shortages to face hordes of consumers ready for “revenge travel.” Gasoline is above $4 a gallon and could get closer to $5 a gallon this summer, AAA warned this week.
Jet fuel prices doubled in the span of less than three months this year after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, kicking off a conflict that has left a key shipping channel effectively closed.
Domestic round-trip airfares in April averaged $623, the highest in nearly four years, according to data from the Airlines Reporting Corporation, which tracks travel agency ticket sales. Jet fuel is the second-biggest expense for airlines after labor, and carriers say they are increasingly passing those costs along to customers.
Separately, airlines are also trimming their growth plans because of higher fuel costs. Even if a route isn’t cut, fewer flights on certain routes means that customers will have fewer seats to choose from and, with demand robust, that could drive up prices even more.
Spirit Airlines, the most famous budget carrier in the U.S., shut down earlier this month, and partially blamed jet fuel prices for its failure to emerge from near back-to-back bankruptcies. It was the biggest U.S. airline collapse in decades. Other airlines swooped in to snatch up those customers in the aftermath, but the carrier’s demise removes a main purveyor of low fares.
The fuel spikes have set the stage for higher fares and more expensive gas station visits this summer. The start of the peak travel season Memorial Day weekend will be a taste of how much travelers will shell out to fly while everything from groceries to clothing has become more expensive this year.
The Transportation Security Administration said it expects to screen 18.3 million people between Thursday and next Wednesday, compared with the 18.5 million it saw over a similar period last year.
Lackluster road trip growth
Road trips won’t be a bargain either. AAA this week forecast 39.1 million people will drive at least 50 miles between Thursday and Monday, up just 0.1% compared with last Memorial Day weekend. That was the least growth in a decade, AAA told CNBC.
Gasoline price site GasBuddy forecast this week that prices across the U.S. will average $4.48 on Memorial Day, up from $3.14 last year, and that prices could average $4.80 through Labor Day “if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a significant portion of the summer.”
A customer fills his vehicle with fuel at a gas station in Miami, April 13, 2026.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Still flying
Leisure travel intentions in the U.S. were slightly lower in March — at 82.8% compared with 83.1% the same month a year earlier — though they are still relatively high, UBS said in a note Monday.
“We believe the year-over-year moderation in travel intentions this year was likely due to higher jet fuel and other geopolitical concerns,” UBS airline analyst Atul Maheswari wrote. He added that the intent to travel is near the highest points in the past nine years.
So far, airline executives said, customers are still booking, and executives are optimistic about the summer travel season. They’ve also said they’re expecting a boost from the FIFA World Cup, which will be held in June and July in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and from major concerts such as Harry Styles’ residencies in Amsterdam and London this summer.
United Airlines said it expects to carry 53 million travelers between June and August, up 3 million people from last year. American Airlines has forecast 75 million customers between May 21 and Sept. 8, after Labor Day, topping its previous record, in 2019.
Refueling trucks at LaGuardia Airport in New York, April 23, 2026.
Zhang Fengguo | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
‘What are you waiting for?’
Airlines have been pruning their schedules and axing unprofitable or less profitable routes but have been eager to fill in the gaps after Spirit’s collapse.
Travelers can still find deals if they’re flexible, said Kyle Potter, who runs the Thrifty Traveler website. He recommended using tools such as the “Explorer” tool in Google Flights that allows users to look up destinations by the length of trip and by month in a map view.
He also suggested flyers consider traveling on a Tuesday or Wednesday, when fares and traffic are often lower.
“That, in many cases, can save you hundreds of dollars per ticket, and multiply that by a family of four,” he said.
He had a simple message for travelers sitting on piles of frequent flyer miles.
“Now is the time to use your miles or your credit card points or both,” he said, warning that miles can end up devalued. “What are you waiting for? I think a lot of people hoard their miles because they want to go to to Europe in 2027.”
— CNBC’s Contessa Brewer contributed to this report.
Business
‘Potential to diversify’: US state secretary Rubio pushes for US energy supplies to India in meeting with PM Modi
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasised Washington’s intent to prevent geopolitical disruptions from distorting global energy markets, as tensions linked to the Iran conflict continue to affect oil supply routes and pricing dynamics.During discussions on energy security, Rubio’s office, quoted by Reuters, stressed that the US sees energy exports as a key instrument in strengthening partnerships, particularly with India, which remains a major crude importer navigating supply diversification challenges.In that context, Rubio said, “US energy products have the potential to diversify India’s energy supply.” He also emphasized a broader US position on global energy stability amid the Iran-related crisis, with his office adding, “the United States will not let Iran hold the global energy market hostage.”The remarks come as the Iran war has disrupted global energy flows and contributed to volatility in oil markets, complicating efforts by Washington to reduce India’s reliance on Russian crude imports. The instability has added a new layer of complexity to US energy diplomacy in Asia, where supply security has become increasingly central to strategic engagement.Officials indicated that the ripple effects of the conflict have not only impacted global pricing but also slowed parts of Washington’s broader effort to realign energy trade flows away from sanctioned or high-risk suppliers.Rubio’s comments were made alongside broader engagement in New Delhi, where he met Indian leadership to discuss energy cooperation, trade expansion under the “Mission 500” framework, and Indo-Pacific strategic alignment through the Quad.In earlier public remarks, Rubio had also signalled a more aggressive US commercial energy posture toward India, saying, “We want to sell them as much energy as they’ll buy.”Separately, he reiterated India’s importance in Washington’s strategic outlook, describing it as a key partner in shaping long-term regional stability while the US continues to manage the economic and geopolitical spillovers of the Iran conflict.
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