In the NBA, March and April can be a mirage.

The final few weeks of the regular season feature the best teams preparing for the playoffs, the worst teams tanking, banged-up star players being shut down and plenty of outlier situations unfolding.

The bottom line? Performances and storylines at this point in the season aren’t always predictive of the league, its teams and its players’ future. (The Malachi Flynn Principle, if you will.)

As a result, one thing coaches, scouts and executives do this time of year is decide whether what they’re seeing on the court is real or not. As the 2025-26 regular season enters its final weekend, we asked league insiders which late-season trends will carry over to the playoffs and which could reverse once the stakes become greater.

Brian Windhorst: It is important to understand that both Doncic (hamstring) and Reaves (oblique) were diagnosed with Grade 2 strains. Both players will absolutely try to find a way to come back in time to make an impact on the first round, but these are significant injuries. Who can say how a soft tissue injury will feel two weeks from now, but the Lakers have to operate as if Doncic and Reaves will miss the entire series.

The question becomes: Can the Lakers win four of seven games with 41-year-old LeBron James carrying them against the Houston Rockets, their most likely opponent?

“There’s tactical stuff I’m sure [Lakers coach JJ Redick] and his staff are examining, and they’re running through lineup ideas,” an Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. “But honestly, the Lakers need LeBron to have a hot shooting series and for the Rockets to have a cold shooting series. That’s possible, and when LeBron gets his 3-pointer going, it opens up the entire game.”

“They need Marcus Smart to be healthy,” a Western Conference scout said. “He’s an important point-of-attack defender for them. They can’t afford to lose another starter, and he’s been out.”

Tim Bontemps: The unfortunate irony is that James, Doncic and Reaves had finally gotten themselves going — in large part because James bought into a “third star” role.

“Someone always has to sacrifice in that role,” an East executive said. “In the past, that’s been Chris Bosh or Kevin Love. This time, it was him.”

Now, the Lakers will lean on James to carry lineups that are virtually devoid of ballhandling and shot creation. You can construct a world where the Lakers can do that — James gets hot, the Lakers’ role players hit shots and Houston struggles in the clutch — but that’s also ignoring the clear talent gap between the two sides with Doncic and Reaves out.

“Houston’s defense,” a West executive said, “will just swallow them up.”

Windhorst: For two decades, when James’ teams have been in trouble, the old reliable has been to put the ball in his hands, spread the floor and let him find the best shot. But there is a question of whether James, who has looked healthy for the past four to six weeks, can still beat players off the dribble in the half court. (Much of the damage he has done during the Lakers’ second-half surge has been in transition, where he remains very effective.)

“I’d love to be able to see LeBron have a vintage series,” a second West executive said. “But I’m afraid the teams that win the play-in might give OKC and San Antonio a better series than the Lakers can give Houston without AR and Luka.”

Is Boston’s supporting cast good enough for another Finals run?

Bontemps: Much of the focus during the Celtics’ time as title contenders has been on their stars: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and also players such as Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Jrue Holiday.

But that focus has masked one of the NBA’s top player development machines, one that has continuously turned late first-round picks, second-round picks and undrafted players into mainstays. This season, after the franchise lost Porzingis, Horford and Holiday in the offseason, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has put role players such as Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and Hugo Gonzalez in positions to succeed.

“Everyone’s weaknesses are minimized,” an Eastern scout said, “and they maximize their guys’ strengths. And, by doing that, they create so many 3s that it’s tough to match up with them.”

Windhorst: Mazzulla really did a masterful job this season of developing his bench and setting and defining roles that allowed Tatum to rejoin seamlessly. It also helps that Payton Pritchard has matured into an indispensable contributor who delivers whether he’s starting or coming off the bench.

But rivals believe Boston’s young players will be tested.

“There’s going to be a bad quarter or two, and probably not until the second round, where their young guys are going to show their age,” an East executive said. “They probably have enough [star power] to bail them out once or twice, but how they respond to adversity will teach us a lot about how good this roster really is.”

Bontemps: Boston’s other question is at center. Neemias Queta is a deserving Most Improved Player candidate, but his potential playoff matchups include the Detroit Pistons‘ Jalen Duren, the Cleveland Cavaliers‘ Jarrett Allen and the New York Knicks‘ Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The Celtics’ backups, Luka Garza and Nikola Vucevic, are both floor spacers but question marks defensively.

“Can you survive with Queta and Garza and Vuc [at center]?” a West assistant coach said. “I think they’re the team to beat because I’ve seen them do it.”

Will the Cavs’ defensive regression doom them?

Windhorst: The Cavaliers had one of their best halves in the past few weeks Wednesday when they beat the Hawks, who entered the night winning 18 of their past 21 games. They held Atlanta to 41% shooting in the second half, and Donovan Mitchell and James Harden were terrific in a 44-point third quarter. Evan Mobley had a big game scoring and rebounding.

But that game stuck out because the Cavs allowed 67 points in the first half, part of a regression over the past two-plus months that has dropped their defensive efficiency to 17th since the All-Star break. Earlier this week, they gave up an NBA-record 29 3-pointers to the Memphis Grizzlies, part of a 3-point defense that has been victimized this season. Cleveland is allowing 42% shooting on corner 3s since the break, 20th in the league alongside many of the tanking teams.

The Cavs are 19-6 when Harden plays, but their defensive struggles and shifting lineups have made it hard to have enormous confidence in them.

“Harden is a master of offense, and he and Mitchell are an absolute load to handle every night,” an East scout said. “But Harden has been in better shape and the referees don’t give him as many calls as they used to for some reason. And it shows up on defense; he and Mitchell sometimes get torched out there.”

Bontemps: On one hand, Cleveland can hope that getting back Allen, who has been dealing with knee issues for the past few weeks, will help remedy its struggling defense.

On the other hand, relying on either Max Strus or Dean Wade to guard elite bigger wings and ball handlers in the playoffs could prove to be a struggle.

“Allen has missed a bunch of time, and he’s a big part of who they are,” a scout who saw the Cavaliers recently said. “You’ll get a bump because it’s the playoffs, and everyone is locked in, but you still have to manage Donovan and James. …

“Strus and Wade aren’t good enough, and Keon Ellis is too small.”

Windhorst: Harden is averaging 5.8 free throws per game in Cleveland, down from 8.5 in the 44 games he played for the Clippers this season. The Cavs are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency since trading for him.

“I understand the reasons they made the Harden trade, and I think it did put them in a better spot,” an East executive said. “But they are going to have times where they’re going to be better off with [Sam] Merrill out there on defense more than Harden. I think they’ll go as far as Donovan’s scoring can take them, and that’s something we’ve seen before with his teams.”

Mitchell has averaged 28 points over 63 playoff games, with seven 40-point playoff games and three 50-point playoff games. He has never reached a conference finals.

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How Cade Cunningham’s injury was better for Pistons in the long run

David Dennis Jr. details how Cade Cunningham missing time because of injury actually benefited the Pistons.

Can Jalen Duren be the second option for a Finals team?

Bontemps: Duren, alongside MVP candidate Cade Cunningham, has driven massive success during Detroit’s run to the East’s top seed. But can the first-time All-Star center score enough to be the second option on a team that hasn’t had any playoff success yet?

“I like Duren,” a West executive said. “I’m terrified to give him his max [this summer], but the dude is a beast. He grabs every rebound, can guard and his scoring has exceeded everything I would have expected coming into the season.”

Windhorst: When Cunningham was sidelined with a collapsed lung, the playmaking-challenged Pistons started leaning on Duren to create offense for them. Coach JB Bickerstaff designed plays on which Duren was the trigger man with the ball at the top of the key, something few knew he had in his game. His usage rate and assists spiked, and the Pistons’ offense really benefited.

In the 12 games before Cunningham got hurt, Duren had a total of 14 assists. In a nine-game stretch with Cunningham out, Duren averaged four per game. It’s something new the Pistons could have in the game plan during the playoffs.

Bontemps: That said, teams have typically needed a second high-level ball handler to get to the end in the postseason, like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams for Oklahoma City last year. That option doesn’t exist right now for Detroit, meaning it will have to be a committee approach.

“When the first guy has so much usage, is that easier?” the West executive asked. “That helps it some. But I don’t know if it can be only him.”

Is San Antonio’s post-All-Star shooting surge real?

Windhorst: Early in the season, even as the Spurs were off to an awesome start behind Victor Wembanyama‘s rim attacking, the common counter was to pack the paint to force 3-pointers. It was a sound strategy — the Spurs aren’t loaded with long-range shooters, and Wembanyama can be tempted into lower-percentage shots. Over the season’s first 50 games, the Spurs were 17th in 3-pointers per game and 22nd in percentage.

“I keep seeing you media guys say why the Spurs aren’t going to win the title,” one East vice president said. “You’d be better off listing reasons why they are.”

OK, here is a big one: Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have surged big-time from deep. They are shooting better than 38%, third in the league in that span, and are up to 14.9 makes a game, putting them just outside the top five.

Bontemps: It’s one thing to make those shots in February and March. It’s another to make them in late April, May and June — particularly when this roster is largely devoid of playoff experience.

It’s been 30 years since a team in this type of position reached the NBA Finals without making a run the year before: the 1995 Orlando Magic, led by Shaquille O’Neal and Anfernee Hardaway. There are plenty of similarities between these two teams, and perhaps things will play out like they did that year for the Magic and their young stars.

However, Saturday’s thriller against the Denver Nuggets, during which Keldon Johnson, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle combined to go 0-for-16, is a window into the approach playoff opponents could take.

“Young guys going through the playoffs for the first time is a totally different animal,” a West assistant coach said. “It will be interesting to see how those guys handle it.

“But maybe Victor will figure it all out on his own.”

Can Stephen Curry power Golden State to two road wins?

Bontemps: The immediate answer from league insiders I spoke to was “no.” Obviously, it’s been a brutal season for Golden State from an injury perspective, including losing both Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody for the season, plus the Jonathan Kuminga drama over the first half of the season and Kristaps Porzingis and Curry missing large chunks of the second half.

“I’m not sure they even win the 9-10 game, let alone both,” a West scout said. “It’s one thing when Steph gets it going at home and he’s got that crowd roaring behind him. That’s a real thing.

“It’s different when they’re on the road and he’s doing it somewhere else. That same factor just isn’t there.”

Windhorst: So much of the attention on the Warriors is naturally on Curry, a game changer in every way. But the Warriors’ defense has really struggled coming down the stretch as Steve Kerr has managed injuries.

“Our analytics people will tell me that 3-point shooting often comes down to luck, and it’s just a matter of the quality of the shot,” a West scout said. “Well, the Warriors sure as hell must be having some terrible luck, because the last few times I’ve watched them they’re getting killed on corner 3s.”

The numbers, horrifyingly for Golden State, back that up. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors are giving up a league-worst 46% shooting percentage on corner 3-pointers and a jaw-dropping 57% on right corner 3s. But it’s also bad inside, as opponents are shooting 71% in the restricted area over the past two months, fifth worst in the league.

It’s difficult to look at the Warriors’ current form and argue they’re primed for any sort of run.

Illinois freshman guard Keaton Wagler will declare for the NBA draft, his agency ProMondo Sports told ESPN.

Wagler, the No. 5 ranked prospect in ESPN’s Top 100, burst onto the scene this season, leading the 28-9 Fighting Illini to the Final Four for the first time since 2005, earning consensus second-team All-American honors and playing his way into a projected lottery selection.

The 6-foot-6 Wagler averaged 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists to just 1.8 turnovers this season, shooting 44.5% from the field and 39.7% from 3 as the primary offensive catalyst for Illinois. Wagler’s honors included the Jerry West Shooting Guard of the Year Award, First Team All-Big Ten and Big Ten Freshman of the Year.

A native of Shawnee, Kansas, Wagler arrived at Illinois with limited national notoriety after a quiet recruitment, despite winning two state championships in high school. After wowing the Illini coaching staff upon his arrival, he became an indispensable part of the team and wound up starting all 37 games, highlighted by a 46-point outburst on the road at Purdue in January and 25 points against Iowa to send Illinois to the Final Four last month.

Wagler’s swift ascent as a prospect has been spurred by his positional size, plus shooting, and quick decision-making, allowing him to drive winning basketball at both guard positions. Many NBA executives are bullish on his developmental trajectory, feel for the game and long-term upside, often citing his room for physical and ball-handling improvement as a realistic pathway to a star ceiling.

The NBA draft lottery is set for May 10, with the draft combine beginning May 11.

Carlos Ulberg grabbed the light heavyweight championship out of the jaws of defeat at UFC 327 in Miami on Saturday. After injuring his knee in the opening minute of his title fight against Jiří Procházka, it looked as if Ulberg’s night might end quickly. It did, but only because he caught Procházka with a left hand across the chin and finished him on the ground for a first-round knockout.

It was the surprise culmination of a card full of wow moments. The heavyweights on the main card, Josh Hokit and Curtis Blaydes, put on a slugfest for the ages, and a former Bellator MMA star who had a horrible UFC debut proved first impressions aren’t everything.

Procházka is in for some sleepless nights after this one

History will hopefully remember this as Ulberg’s night. He deserves that. He kept his composure in an unbelievable moment. Just imagine how frustrating and stressful it must be to blow out a knee in the opening round of your first UFC title fight. Obviously, he wasn’t going to just roll over, but to not skip a beat, show no emotion, continue to confidently look for ways to win and succeed? Incredible.

That said, one man will remember it very differently — and that, of course, is Procházka. Part of what makes Procházka who he is, what got him here, is his unorthodox, daring personality. But in this instance, it’s probably safe to say he truly made one of the biggest mistakes in the entire history of the UFC. The obviousness of Ulberg’s injury had a greater impact on Procházka than it did Ulberg. He began to yell, point at the ground, throw himself into potential fires that weren’t even lit. There is no question his emotional response and recklessness opened the door for the knockout.

This was his chance. He could get another one. He’s a popular, talented fighter in a wide-open division, but this was a bit of karma coming back in his favor. It wasn’t fair that he suffered a terrible shoulder injury in 2022 and had to vacate his belt before defending it. It wasn’t fair that he was rushed back into title contention when he did return, and ended up essentially fighting Alex Pereira on abbreviated notice both times they fought. He said he felt mercy for Ulberg when he recognized his injury, and frankly, he should have known better. He’s seen how cruel the fight game can be. Nothing is ever certain. I’m not piling on Procházka. His passion is why fans love him. I’m merely pointing out what he undoubtedly realized immediately. His talk with Joe Rogan postfight was one of the rawer interviews we’ve seen in years. Procházka knows exactly what he did Saturday. Hopefully, it won’t haunt him forever. — Brett Okamoto

Hokit shows the grit behind the gimmick

Hokit decided to create a brash and controversial persona straight out of the WWE playbook to try and generate interest in his fledgling heavyweight run in the UFC. The polarizing gimmick worked just enough to land him a fight with the UFC’s No. 5-ranked heavyweight, Blaydes, at UFC 327 in only his third fight with the promotion.

The thing about gimmicks is they only work when you’re either winning or wildly entertaining in the Octagon. Well, Hokit managed to do both in one of the all-time great slugfests in UFC heavyweight history. Hokit and Blaydes battled for 15 minutes, breaking several records and leaving fans in awe as he won a unanimous decision and earned a spot on the White House card in June against Derrick Lewis.

Hokit and Blaydes landed a combined 351 significant strikes in 15 minutes, blowing past the previous record of 304 set by Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier in their five-round fight in 2019. They also broke the record of signature strikes attempted (595) and total strikes attempted (643). All of this took place while Hokit stayed in character, flipping Blaydes the middle finger multiple times and playing to the crowd while blood spilled all over the Octagon. The important part of all this is that Hokit won by demonstrating tremendous heart and an ability to absorb significant punishment. Those traits are exactly what makes fans buy into a fighter. The gimmick simply adds another element to Hokit’s unlikely rise. Without it, he wouldn’t have made it this far. Even though UFC CEO Dana White said in the postfight news conference he isn’t a fan of the gimmick, the performance inside the Octagon was undeniable.

Both fighters were transported to the hospital after the fight, but Hokit will come out of the other side a bigger star than he was before. He couldn’t have written a better outcome with a fight of the year candidate, a likely top-five divisional ranking and an upcoming fight on one of the biggest UFC cards of the year.

Love him or hate him, Josh Hokit has already mastered the art of making you care and backing up the talk with his performance. Who knows how far he goes, but he’s already set himself up to have a massive 2026. — Andreas Hale

The potential of Pico remains something special

At this point, it’s a story as old as time: If Aaron Pico can finally live up to his potential, he can be the best featherweight on the planet. How many times has this been said, going all the way back to his disastrous MMA debut in 2017, when he was submitted 24 seconds into the fight? It’s such a common refrain that it feels easy to dismiss. But hold on a second.

The biggest knocks on Pico have been his durability and ability to blend his world-class wrestling and boxing into an effective MMA style. Let’s address his style first. He’s still only 29. It’s taken him longer than some might have thought, considering he signed his first MMA deal when he was 18. But on Saturday, against a championship-caliber opponent in Patricio Pitbull, Pico looked like a polished MMA title challenger. He didn’t look like someone who was trying to decide whether to box or wrestle, which has been a criticism of him in the past.

As for his durability, is it as bad as it’s been made out to be? Prior to the knockout loss to Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut, Pico hadn’t suffered a knockout since 2019 — in his seventh pro bout. That KO was an ultra-violent flying knee by Adam Borics, and the elbow that Murphy used to put him down last year was one of the best shots of the year. It’s not as if Pico has been going down repeatedly from basic shots.

Pico did look a little stressed in his UFC debut, and nerves can impact a fighter’s ability to take punches. When a fighter is tense and stressed, he doesn’t roll with the shots as well. He had that nervous, “Octagon jitters” energy. Not saying that’s why he lost, but my point is that the two biggest concerns around Pico’s potential either weren’t present Saturday or are exaggerated. What is not overexaggerated is his talent, which jumped off the screen yet again at UFC 327. — Okamoto