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Oil prices fall again amid Middle East ceasefire hopes

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Oil prices fall again amid Middle East ceasefire hopes


Oil prices remained below $100 a barrel on Friday as Wall Street set another record and Asian stocks headed for a second consecutive week of strong gains, with markets watching for signs that the Iran war ceasefire expiring next week would be extended.

Brent crude fell 1.1 per cent to $98.31 a barrel and US benchmark crude dropped 1.4 per cent to $89.90, after Donald Trump said the next meeting between the US and Iran could take place over the weekend and suggested he was open to extending the two-week ceasefire beyond its expiry next week.

Iran’s UN envoy said Tehran remained “cautiously optimistic” over negotiations with the US. A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel also went into effect on Thursday.

Asian markets pulled back on Friday despite Wall Street setting another record the previous session. Tokyo’s Nikkei fell 1 per cent to 58,930 after hitting an all-time high on Thursday. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.6 per cent lower, Hong Kong‘s Hang Seng dropped 1 per cent and the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1 per cent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.3 per cent and Taiwan’s Taiex traded 0.5 per cent lower.

MSCI‘s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan remained close to its highest level since 2 March, the first trading day after the Iran war broke out. The index is up 14.5 per cent in April after dropping 13.5 per cent in March, with almost all stock markets now back to pre-war levels.

A currency trader talks on the phone near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) (AP)

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed 0.3 per cent higher at 7,041 on Thursday, a day after eclipsing its previous all-time high set in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 per cent to 48,578 and the Nasdaq added 0.4 per cent to 24,102.

However, the speed of the recovery has surprised some analysts, who warned markets may be underpricing the risks.

“There’s quite a strong contrast between what policymakers and central bankers are saying about the risks that this conflict is creating versus what the market is implying,” Andrew Chorlton, chief investment officer for public fixed income at M&G, told Reuters.

“That seems somewhat complacent. It seems unlikely that there shouldn’t be some additional risk premium priced in, either to growth or to inflation.”

Others pointed to the strait as the critical test for whether the rally could hold.

“I think equity markets are remaining positive and some solid US earnings have helped, but — and it’s a big but — we need to see some concrete evidence that peace is going to last,” Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX Global, told Reuters.

“A full reopening of the Strait, or we could see some substantial corrections in global stocks in the coming days and weeks.”

The stakes on the energy side are rising. The head of the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that Europe had “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel supplies remaining and that flight cancellations were coming “soon”.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the worst oil price shock in history — Brent crude has surged roughly 40 per cent since the start of the Iran war in late February — and prompted the IMF to downgrade its global growth outlook, warning that a prolonged conflict could push the world to the brink of recession.

The US dollar, which had benefited from safe-haven demand in March, has since given up those gains, with the dollar index near its lowest level since 2 March after eight straight sessions of decline. The euro held at $1.1778 while the Australian dollar, considered a risk-sensitive currency, drifted near a four-year high. Gold edged up 0.1 per cent to $4,814.60 an ounce and silver gained 0.4 per cent to $79.04.



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Rs 20,000 crore gold, silver rush: What will people buy this Akshaya Tritiya? – The Times of India

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Rs 20,000 crore gold, silver rush: What will people buy this Akshaya Tritiya? – The Times of India


This Akshaya Tritiya, India’s gold and silver markets are heading for bumper purchases, with overall trade likely to cross Rs 20,000 crore even as record-high prices reshape buying patterns. The estimate, shared by the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), is higher than last year’s Rs 16,000 crore, signalling growth in value despite a sharp rise in bullion rates.Prices for the yellow metal have surged sharply over the past year, going from Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams, to Rs 1.58 lakh. Meanwhile, silver has shown a steeper rally, jumping from Rs 85,000 per kilogram to Rs 2.55 lakh per kilogram. According to CAIT, this sharp escalation has not weakened demand, but is instead prompting consumers to make more deliberate and value-oriented purchases.Praveen Khandelwal, member of parliament from Chandni Chowk and secretary general of CAIT told ANI, “Akshaya Tritiya has traditionally been one of India’s most auspicious occasions for purchasing gold… While gold continues to dominate, the nature of purchasing is evolving significantly in response to steep price escalation.”Commenting on customer preference, CAIT national president BC Bhartia highlighted, “There is a clear shift towards lightweight, wearable jewellery, alongside a stronger focus on silver and diamond products. Attractive incentives such as reduced making charges and complimentary gold coins are also helping sustain consumer interest.”Despite the increase in overall trade value, the quantity of metals being sold tells a different story. Pankaj Arora, National President of the All India Jewellers and Goldsmith Federation (AIJGF), an associate of CAIT, explained that the projected Rs 16,000 crore gold trade amounts to nearly 10,000 kilograms (10 tonnes) at current rates. The value, spread across an estimated 2 to 4 lakh jewellers, translates to average sales of only 25 to 50 grams per jeweller, “clearly indicating a sharp decline in volume”.Meanwhile for silver, the estimated Rs 4,000 crore trade corresponds to around 1,56,800 kilograms (157 tonnes), resulting in average sales of about 400 to 800 grams per jeweller during the festival period. “These figures underline a critical shift: while the value of business is expanding due to rising prices, actual consumption is contracting,” Khandelwal said.This gap between value and volume is also reshaping consumer’s buying pattern, with smaller items and lightweight jewellery gaining popularity. At the same time, jewellers are facing challenges due to fluctuating prices, especially when it comes to managing inventory.Even so, festive demand remains steady, with markets witnessing healthy footfall. “Consumers are now adopting a more cautious and pragmatic approach, balancing traditional beliefs with financial discipline,” Khandelwal added.At the same time, it’s not just about physical gold anymore as consumers are increasingly exploring alternatives like digital gold, Sovereign Gold Bonds and gold ETFs, drawn by the promise of liquidity, safety and flexibility when prices are volatile.CAIT and AIJGF have urged jewellers to comply with mandatory hallmarking standards, including HUID certification, and advised buyers to verify the purity and authenticity of their purchases.



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The cost of rising rents: Working four jobs and pushed on to benefits

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The cost of rising rents: Working four jobs and pushed on to benefits



Lauren Elcock is among the young Londoners who say rising rents are forcing them to quit the capital.



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Scams have grown more sophisticated, but people are fighting back

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Scams have grown more sophisticated, but people are fighting back


As governments across the world restricted the movements of their citizens during Covid lockdowns from 2020, people spent more time online. We bought more online and socialised more online, and this brought us closer to the people who want to scam us. At the same time, realistic video impersonations, voices, websites, and texts became more commonplace, and scammers increased their use of social media including WhatsApp.



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