Politics
Modi warms to China, Russia amid Trump’s cold shoulder


- US administrations have sought closer ties to India.
- Modi strengthens ties with China, Russia amid Trump tensions.
- Quad summit uncertain as Trump prioritises China trade deal.
Images this week of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping seemed to confirm what many experts have already concluded — the US has stumbled in its effort to draw India into its diplomatic orbit.
Successive US presidential administrations have sought to cultivate the historically non-aligned India as a strategic counterweight to China and Russia.
But as the images of Modi in Tianjin underlined, US President Donald Trump appears for now to have undercut that goal with a series of actions. These have included piling 50% tariffs on Indian goods and publicly browbeating New Delhi over what his administration sees as its opportunistic purchases of cheap Russian oil.
The souring of the India relationship comes even as US adversaries China, Russia and North Korea have tightened their ties, despite Trump’s desire to reset relations with each of them. On Wednesday, the leaders of the three countries appeared together in public for the first time at an event to mark the end of World War Two.
And Modi, in a signal to Trump, is showing a willingness to boost rather than reduce ties with Moscow — and to look past his suspicions of Beijing.
“I fear we are locked into a long downward spiral because neither leader is willing to pursue the personal outreach necessary to repair the relationship,” said Ashley Tellis, who served in the White House of Republican President George W. Bush and is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.
“The problem now is Trump’s deepening grievances against India,” Tellis said. “He may change his mind down the road, but presently the imperative of securing a trade deal with China trumps all other geopolitical considerations.”
Indian officials have been rankled by having their trade proposals rejected and their arch-rival Pakistan honoured by Trump, slights compounded by the US president claiming credit for resolving decades-long tensions between the South Asian neighbours, which India regards as a bilateral affair.
Tanvi Madan, an India specialist at the Brookings Institution, said US criticism of Modi’s meetings with Xi and Putin struck Indians as odd just weeks after Trump rolled out the red carpet for the Russian leader and given the US president’s own plans to meet with Xi.
“That criticism and pressure on India isn’t going to sway India from seeking strategic autonomy; it is going to reinforce that instinct,” she said.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump’s foreign policy record “is unparalleled because of his uncanny ability to look anyone in the eye and deliver better deals for the American people,” including brokering an India-Pakistan ceasefire.
“President Trump and Prime Minister Modi have a respectful relationship, and teams from both the US and India remain in close communication on the full range of diplomatic, defence and commercial priorities in our strategic partnership,” she said.
India’s foreign ministry did not respond when asked for comment.
An Indian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Trump administration’s narrative on India, including recent comments by Trump’s advisers, was unjustified but Delhi continues to engage with it. The official said the thaw with China has been happening since October and is not targeted at the US.
China vs India
Modi’s improving relations with Xi are especially striking given long-standing Sino-Indian tensions and sometimes outright hostility, including a military clash on their disputed border in 2020. His trip to China was his first in seven years.
Trump’s recent attacks have thrown assumptions of a mutually beneficial US partnership with India into the air, with his “America First” approach often hitting Washington’s major partners and allies harder than its traditional geopolitical adversaries.
“We get along with India very well, but India, you have to understand, for many years it was a one-sided relationship,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday, reprising a theme he has raised multiple times in recent weeks.
China, India and Russia are all original members of the BRICS, a group Trump has dubbed “anti-American.” Another BRICS nation, Brazil, which like India has been an important US partner, has also been targeted by Trump, facing stiff tariffs and accusations that it is pursuing a “witch hunt” against his far-right ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Referring to the images of solidarity in Beijing, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Monday called it “a shame to see Modi getting in bed as the leader of the biggest democracy in the world, with the two biggest authoritarian dictators in the world in Putin and Xi Jinping.”
Trump’s advisers say the shift in tone is not intended as a pivot away from India, but to speak frankly with a partner.
Risks to the quad
Trump courted Delhi during his first term, hosting a joint “Howdy Modi” rally in Texas in 2019, and revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, that also includes Japan and Australia.
Modi quickly sought to rekindle ties after Trump’s November election victory, calling to congratulate him within hours, dispatching his foreign minister to sit in a prime seat at the inauguration and launching an account on the Trump-backed Truth Social platform — though he hasn’t used it since July.
But Trump quickly took aim at the trade imbalance and immigration issues. When Modi visited Washington in February, trade was firmly the focus and they agreed to work toward a limited trade deal by fall 2025, to expand bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, while India pledged to boost US energy purchases.
India has been expected to host a November Quad summit, with a more explicit focus on security vis-a-vis China than previously. But Trump has yet to schedule a trip there, according to a person familiar with the issue.
Doubts about the meeting have come as Trump has set his sights on a major tariff deal with China ahead of a November deadline.
“For now, in Trump’s worldview, there’s no great power competition that requires the Quad,” said Tellis.
Fixing the US-India relationship may require more effort than it took to break it.
“India is a clear example of a country that for historical, political and economic reasons won’t simply bow down to Trump,” said Brett Bruen, who served as a foreign policy adviser to former President Barack Obama and is now head of the Global Situation Room consultancy. “They’ve got other options.”
Politics
Trump Warns Modi: “War with Pakistan Must Not Happen”

US President Donald Trump said that he had told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi there should be no war with Pakistan, emphasizing that he had helped avert several conflicts through diplomacy and trade pressure.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office during Diwali celebrations, Trump extended his “warmest wishes to the people of India” and said he had “just spoken to your Prime Minister today.” He described the conversation as “great” and added, “We talked about trade… He’s very interested in that.”
Trump also discussed preventing conflict, stating, “Although we did talk a little while ago about let’s have no wars with Pakistan.” He highlighted commerce as a tool to ease tensions: “The fact that trade was involved, I was able to talk about that.”
He emphasized the outcome, saying, “And we have no war with Pakistan and India. That was a very, very good thing,” and praised Modi personally: “He’s a great person, and he’s become a great friend of mine over the years.”
Trump claimed he had prevented eight wars so far through “deals and trade,” including one between Pakistan and India. He recalled, “During the Pakistan-India conflict, seven planes were shot down.
I called both countries and told them that if they went to war, the United States would stop trading with them. Within 24 hours, they called back and said they didn’t want to fight.”
Trump has previously taken credit for helping defuse tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, who have fought three wars since independence and remain at odds over the disputed territory of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).
In May, Pakistan and India engaged in a military showdown, the worst between the two nations in decades, sparked by a terrorist attack on tourists in IIOJK’s Pahalgam area, which New Delhi alleged was backed by Pakistan.
Islamabad denied involvement in the attack, which killed 26 people and was the worst assault on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
After the incident, India killed several innocent civilians in unprovoked attacks on Pakistan for three days before the Pakistan Armed Forces retaliated in defence with the successful Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos.
Pakistan downed six IAF fighter jets, including three Rafale, and dozens of drones. After at least 87 hours, the war between the two nuclear-armed nations ended on May 10 with a ceasefire agreement brokered by the US.
Trump added that energy was also part of the discussion, saying Modi assured him that India would be limiting its oil purchases from Russia.
“He’s not going to buy much oil from Russia. He wants to see that war end as much as I do,” Trump said.
India and China are the two top buyers of Russian seaborne crude exports.
Trump has recently targeted India for its Russian oil purchases, imposing tariffs on Indian exports to the US to discourage the country’s crude buying as he seeks to pressure Moscow to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine.
Trump reiterated on Sunday that Modi told him India will stop buying Russian oil, while warning that New Delhi would continue paying “massive” tariffs if it did not do so.
“I spoke with Prime Minister Modi of India, and he said he’s not going to be doing the Russian oil thing,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.
Asked about India’s assertion that it was not aware of any conversation between Modi and Trump, Trump replied: “But if they want to say that, then they’ll just continue to pay massive tariffs, and they don’t want to do that.”
Russian oil has been one of the main irritants for Trump in prolonged trade talks with India – half of his 50% tariffs on Indian goods are in retaliation for those purchases. The US government has said that petroleum revenue funds Russia’s war in Ukraine.
India has become the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian oil sold at a discount after Western nations shunned purchases and imposed sanctions on Moscow for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Trade talks between India and the US are going on in a “congenial” manner, an Indian government official said on Saturday, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of talks.
An Indian delegation, which was in the US earlier this month for talks, has returned, the official said, declining to share further details.
An email to India’s trade ministry was not immediately answered on Monday, which was a public holiday.
Trump on Wednesday said Modi had assured him that day that India would stop its Russian oil purchases.
India’s foreign ministry said it was not aware of any telephone conversation between the leaders that day, but said that New Delhi’s main concern was to “safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer.”
A White House official said on Thursday that India has halved its purchases of Russian oil, but Indian sources said no immediate reduction had been seen.
The sources said Indian refiners already placed orders for November loading, including some slated for December arrival, so any cut may start showing up in December or January import numbers.
India’s imports of Russian oil are set to rise about 20% this month to 1.9 million barrels per day, according to estimates from commodities data firm Kpler, as Russia ramps up exports after Ukrainian drones hit its refineries.
Politics
Critical Putin-Trump summit on hold after Russia rejects ceasefire


- Summit preps appear stalled after Rubio-Lavrov meeting postponed.
- ‘I guess the Russians wanted too much’ says European diplomat.
- Neither side has publicly abandoned plans for Budapest meeting.
A planned summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was put on hold on Tuesday, as Moscow’s rejection of an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine cast a cloud over attempts at negotiations.
A senior White House official told Reuters, “There are no plans for President Trump to meet with President Putin in the immediate future” after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had a “productive call” but opted against an in-person meeting.
Trump had announced last week that he and Putin would meet soon in Hungary to try to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. But Putin has been unwilling to consider concessions. Moscow has long demanded that Ukraine agree to cede more territory before any ceasefire.
Trump, asked by reporters about the prospect of a summit, said he did not want to have a “wasted meeting” but suggested there could be more developments and that “we’ll be notifying you over the next two days” about them.
Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s investment envoy, said in a social media post that “preparations continue” for a summit.
Russia reiterated its long-standing terms for a peace deal in a private communique known as a “non-paper” that it sent to the US last weekend, according to two US officials and two people familiar with the situation.
The communique reaffirmed Russia’s demand for full control of the long-contested eastern Donbas region, according to one official, effectively rejecting Trump’s call for a ceasefire to commence with a freeze of the frontlines at their prevailing locations.
Russia controls all of the province of Luhansk and about 75% of neighbouring Donetsk, which together make up the Donbas region.
European leaders called on Washington on Tuesday to hold firm in demanding an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, with present battle lines to serve as the basis for any future talks.
NATO said Secretary General Mark Rutte travelled to Washington on Tuesday for talks with Trump that two sources familiar with the matter said would take place on Wednesday.
A Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Rutte planned to present to Trump the European views on a ceasefire and any subsequent peace negotiations.
Trump, who last week spoke by phone to Putin and met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, had hoped for another high-profile session with the Russian leader after their August summit in Alaska failed to advance negotiations.
But the two sides postponed a preparatory meeting between Rubio and Lavrov that had been expected to take place in Budapest on Thursday.
Lavrov and Rubio spoke by phone on Monday. Lavrov said the place and the timing of the next Trump-Putin summit were less important than the substance of implementing the understandings reached in Alaska.
The Kremlin said there was no clear date and that “serious preparation” for a summit was needed, which may take time.
“Listen, we have an understanding of the presidents, but we cannot postpone what has not been finalised,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “Neither President Trump nor President Putin gave exact dates.”
Asked if Moscow had an understanding of a possible date for the summit, Peskov said: “No, there is no understanding.”
‘I guess Russians wanted too much’
Neither side has publicly abandoned plans for Trump to meet Putin. Hungary’s foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, was in Washington on Tuesday, where he posted on Facebook: “We have some serious days ahead”.
But two senior European diplomats said the postponement of the Rubio-Lavrov meeting was a sign the Americans would be reluctant to go ahead with a Trump-Putin summit unless Moscow yields its demands.
“I guess the Russians wanted too much and it became evident for the Americans that there will be no deal for Trump in Budapest,” said one.
The Russians “haven’t at all changed their position, and are not agreeing to ‘stop where they are’,” said the second diplomat. “And I assume Lavrov gave the same spiel, and Rubio was like: ‘See you later’.”
Europeans concerned Trump will get no concessions
Ukraine’s European allies have been concerned that Trump could meet Putin for a second time without getting any serious concessions from the Russian leader.
In a statement on Tuesday, the leaders of European powers, including Britain, France, Germany and the EU, said they “strongly support President Trump’s position that the fighting should stop immediately, and that the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.”
Trump has often changed his emphasis in public when speaking about Ukraine. But last Friday, after he met with Zelenskiy at the White House, he explicitly endorsed the position that a ceasefire should start with forces at their present positions.
Reuters and other news organisations reported that Trump’s meeting with Zelenskiy behind closed doors was contentious, with the US president repeatedly using profanity and pushing Zelenskiy to accept some Russian demands.
But Zelenskiy has painted the meeting as a success because it ended with Trump publicly backing a ceasefire at the present lines, Kyiv’s longstanding position.
European leaders are due to meet this week with Zelenskiy as their guest, first at an EU summit and then at a meeting of the “coalition of the willing” countries discussing a security force to guarantee a post-war settlement in Ukraine. Russia rejects such an international security force.
The choice of Budapest as a venue for a Putin-Trump meeting is contentious within the EU, where Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is an outlier as one of the few leaders to maintain warm relations with Russia.
Any trip to Budapest would require Putin to fly through the airspace of other EU countries. Poland said on Tuesday it could force Putin’s plane down and arrest him on an international warrant if he flies over its territory, but Bulgaria said Putin could use its airspace to reach the meeting.
Politics
Trump says he told India’s Modi war with Pakistan ‘should not happen’


US President Donald Trump said on Monday he had told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that there should be no war with Pakistan, stressing that he had helped avert several conflicts through diplomacy and trade pressure.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office during Diwali celebrations, Trump extended his “warmest wishes to the people of India” and said he had “just spoken to your Prime Minister today.” He described the conversation as “great” and said, “We talked about trade… He’s very interested in that.”
Trump added that they also discussed avoiding conflict, saying, “Although we did talk a little while ago about let’s have no wars with Pakistan.” He noted the role of commerce in easing tensions: “The fact that trade was involved, I was able to talk about that.”
The US president emphasised the outcome, saying, “And we have no war with Pakistan and India. That was a very, very good thing.” He concluded by praising Modi personally: “He’s a great person, and he’s become a great friend of mine over the years.”
The US president claimed he had prevented eight wars so far through what he described as “deals and trade,” including one between Pakistan and India.
“During the Pakistan-India conflict, seven planes were shot down,” Trump said. “I called both countries and told them that if they went to war, the United States would stop trading with them. Within 24 hours, they called back and said they didn’t want to fight.”
Trump has previously taken credit on several occasions for helping defuse tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, who have fought three wars since independence and remain at odds over the disputed territory of Kashmir.
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