APAC freight market sees short-term surges, long-term overcapacity: Ti

While rates initially jumped in early January, weak underlying demand and the potential return of vessels to the Suez Canal are creating a volatile environment for shippers, it noted.

Carriers pushed through general rate increases (GRIs) in early January this year, briefly lifting China-to-US West Coast rates above $3,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). However, these hikes were largely unsustainable due to weak volumes, with rates quickly correcting to the $1,800-$2,200 range by mid-month, the logistics and supply chain market research firm said in an insights brief.

Asia’s ocean freight market is navigating short-term seasonal surges and long-term structural overcapacity, Ti said.
Asia’s air freight market is seeing a significant ‘post-peak’ correction following a record-breaking end to 2025.
Warehousing capacity in the Asia-Pacific is under severe strain in late January as manufacturing slows and labour shortages emerge ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Seasonal demand ahead of the Lunar New Year (starting mid-February 2026) has pushed North Europe rates to roughly $2,700 per FEU as of mid-January. This is a significant recovery from the October 2025 lows of $1,300 per FEU.

Despite a peak ahead of the holiday, Intra-Asia rates have begun to ‘cool’ in mid-January, settling at an average of $661 per 40-feet container as new services and capacity entered the market.

The Asian air freight market is witnessing a significant ‘post-peak’ correction following a record-breaking end to 2025. While rates have dropped sharply from their December highs, demand remains resilient in key high-tech sectors, and a ‘mini-peak’ is expected in late January ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Spot rates from major hubs like Hong Kong and Shanghai fell significantly in early January as year-end peak season demand evaporated.

Despite the rate correction, global air cargo tonnages jumped by 26 per cent in the first full week of January 2026 compared to the end-of-year slump, with the Asia-Pacific region seeing an 8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in chargeable weight.

Volumes from Southeast Asia to the United States rose by 10 per cent YoY in early January, driven by importers continuing to diversify sourcing away from China.

Warehousing capacity in the Asia-Pacific is under severe strain in late January as manufacturing slows and labour shortages emerge ahead of the Lunar New Year.

India closed 2025 with 36.9 million sq ft of warehouse leasing (16-per cent YoY growth), a trend continuing into early 2026 with high demand in Delhi National Capital Region and Chennai.

After a period of oversupply, development pipelines are expected to drop by a third by 2027, making 2026 a critical ‘inflection point’ for occupiers to secure quality space before terms tighten again.

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