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ASEAN cuts 2025 growth outlook to 4.5% amid uneven momentum

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ASEAN cuts 2025 growth outlook to 4.5% amid uneven momentum



ASEAN’s economic growth projection for 2025 has been revised downwards to 4.5 per cent from the earlier estimate of 4.7 per cent, while inflation is expected to moderate from 3 per cent to 2.4 per cent in 2025 before edging up to 2.8 per cent in 2026, according to the ASEAN Economic Integration Brief.

Vietnam remains the fastest-growing major economy, with growth forecast at 7.4 per cent in 2025, while Indonesia is expected to maintain steady growth around 5-5.1 per cent. Cambodia and the Philippines are expected to post resilient growth near 5 per cent, while Thailand and Singapore face slower momentum.

For 2026, ASEAN’s GDP growth is projected at 4.4 per cent. Vietnam is forecast to grow at a solid 6.4 per cent, while Indonesia is expected to maintain stable growth at 5.1 per cent. The Philippines is projected to expand by 5.3 per cent, Cambodia by 5 per cent, and Malaysia by 4.3 per cent. Thailand and Singapore are expected to see slower growth of 1.6 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively. Inflation pressures are projected to remain elevated in Laos and Myanmar, though easing compared with 2025.

ASEAN’s 2025 growth forecast has been lowered to 4.5 per cent as global uncertainty persists, with inflation easing before rising slightly in 2026.
Vietnam leads regional growth.
Trade momentum is slowing after front-loading effects fade, but strong FDI inflows and deeper regional integration continue to support ASEAN’s medium-term economic outlook.

ASEAN’s merchandise trade showed strong momentum in 2024, expanding 8.8 per cent to reach $3.8 trillion, driven by sustained demand from major trading partners, particularly China and the United States. In the first half of 2025, merchandise trade surged 17.4 per cent due to export front-loading ahead of tariff hikes. However, trade prospects for the second half of 2025 and early 2026 are expected to weaken as these one-off effects taper off and external vulnerabilities intensify, as per the brief.

Foreign direct investment trends remain a bright spot for the region. While global FDI rose modestly by 3.7 per cent in 2024—largely influenced by volatile financial conduit flows—ASEAN recorded a stronger 8.7 per cent increase in inflows to $230.8 billion. Key recipients included Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. In the first half of 2025, ASEAN’s FDI inflows rose a further 12.7 per cent, contrasting with a 3 per cent decline in global FDI, signalling sustained investor confidence in the region.

Looking ahead, ASEAN continues to be viewed as an attractive investment destination, with 60 per cent of firms surveyed by Boston Consulting Group indicating plans to invest in the region within the next 12 months. To sustain this momentum, ASEAN is strengthening credibility, capability, and compliance through deeper regional integration.

The ongoing implementation of the ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement, the ASEAN Trade in Services Agreement, and the upgraded ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement is expected to enhance transparency, resilience, and competitiveness, reinforcing ASEAN’s position as a single market and integrated production base, the brief added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)



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China’s Lanvin Group sees 17.6% drop in preliminary FY25 revenue

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China’s Lanvin Group sees 17.6% drop in preliminary FY25 revenue



China’s luxury fashion house Lanvin Group has reported a preliminary fiscal 2025 (FY25) revenue of €240.5 million (~$276.58 million), marking a 17.6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline, as the global luxury sector faced persistent headwinds and uneven consumer demand. The figures exclude Caruso following its strategic carve-out announced in February 2026, allowing the group to sharpen its focus on core luxury brands.

Despite the overall decline, the group indicated improving momentum in the second half of 2025, with revenue contraction narrowing significantly compared to the first half. This trend reflects early gains from ongoing transformation initiatives, including operational restructuring, cost discipline, and retail network optimisation.

Lanvin Group has reported revenue of €240.5 million (~$276.58 million) in FY25, down 17.6 per cent YoY, amid global luxury headwinds.
While Lanvin and Sergio Rossi declined sharply, St John remained resilient.
North America was stable, but China weakened significantly.
The group continues restructuring, leadership changes, and retail optimisation, targeting stronger growth and profitability by 2026.

At the brand level, performance remained mixed. Lanvin and Sergio Rossi both recorded sharp declines of 30 per cent, while Wolford fell 14 per cent. St John showed resilience, with revenue slipping just 1 per cent, supported by an 8 per cent increase in North America in local currency terms. Wolford’s performance stabilised during the year, aided by improved supply conditions and stronger traction in e-commerce and wholesale channels. Meanwhile, Lanvin progressed in its creative repositioning under artistic director Peter Copping, Lanvin said in a press release.

Regionally, North America has emerged as the most stable market, with revenue declining a modest 6 per cent to €116 million. In contrast, Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) revenues fell 21 per cent, while Greater China saw a steep 42 per cent drop, reflecting softer demand and cautious wholesale activity. Other markets declined 26 per cent, underscoring broader global volatility in luxury consumption.

Across channels, direct-to-consumer (DTC) and e-commerce revenues declined 18 per cent to €164 million, while wholesale revenues fell 15 per cent. The Group continued to streamline its retail footprint, including selective store closures and organisational adjustments, as part of its broader efficiency drive.

Leadership changes also supported the transformation, with Marco Pozzo appointed CEO of Wolford, Barbara Werschine as deputy CEO of Lanvin, and Mandy West as CEO of St John. These appointments are aimed at strengthening brand execution and accelerating strategic priorities, added the release.

Looking ahead, Lanvin Group expects to largely complete its transformation programme in 2026. The company plans to deepen its presence in core markets, expand asset-light business models, and pursue strategic partnerships, while continuing creative renewal across its portfolio. These efforts are intended to reinforce long-term growth and improve profitability amid an evolving global luxury landscape.

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Trump’s tariffs had limited impact on US economy: Study

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Trump’s tariffs had limited impact on US economy: Study



Though President Donald Trump’s tariff increases last year raised US trade protectionism to the highest level in at least 80 years, these so far have had only a small effect on the overall United States (US) economy, according to a paper discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference recently.

Despite the tariff hike being larger than the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs, the aggregate impact on the US economy appears small—between 0.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and minus 0.13 per cent, wrote Pablo Fajgelbaum, professor of economics at the University of California, Los Angeles, and Amit Khandelwal, Don-Soo Hahn professor of global affairs and economics at Yale University.

Though President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff hikes raised US trade protectionism to the highest level in at least 80 years, these so far have had only a small effect on the US economy, a paper discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference recently noted.
That is because federal revenue generated by the tariffs and gains to US producers largely offset the tariffs paid by US importers.

That is because federal revenue generated by the tariffs and gains to US producers largely offset the tariffs paid by US importers, they wrote.

While the aggregate net economic impact may be small, the authors noted that the tariffs also have distributional impacts between producers and importers. They estimate roughly 90 per cent of the tariffs have been passed through to importers, with foreign exporters absorbing only about 10 per cent of the cost by lowering their before-tariff prices.

Except from China, the majority of US exports have not faced retaliatory tariffs. And, the tariffs’ magnitude may be smaller than perceived by the public because announced tariffs “exceeded the actual tariffs imposed at the border,” they wrote.

Moreover, 57 per cent of imports entered the US duty-free. That includes most imports from Canada and Mexico, which enter under the United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement of 2020.

The authors found evidence that the tariffs are achieving the administration’s objectives of raising federal revenue and decoupling trade with China. However, they found no evidence, or said it is too early to determine, whether other stated goals will be met, including lowering import prices excluding tariffs, reducing the US trade deficit, increasing trade with friendly nations, boosting manufacturing jobs and wages, and reshoring strategic industries, a release from the Brookings Institution said.

The authors found that the reduction of US-China trade, which began shrinking with the application of tariffs in 2018, during the first Trump administration, “accelerated markedly in 2025”. However, the overall US goods trade deficit in 2025 rose modestly from 2024 and manufacturing jobs declined slightly despite the tariffs.

They also found that the tariffs were seemingly unrelated to trading partners’ pre-existing geopolitical alignment with the US, noting that tariffs on NATO members and key defence allies are only slightly lower than those imposed on the rest of the world.

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Middle East conflict clouds India’s economic outlook

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Middle East conflict clouds India’s economic outlook



The latest Monthly Economic Review released by India’s Department of Economic Affairs foresees a ‘more uncertain’ economic outlook of the country due to the conflict in the Middle East disrupting energy and trade routes, though domestic growth, credit expansion and services exports continue to offer resilience.

The economic trajectory, which remained steady until early 2026, is now facing fresh headwinds as the conflict has disrupted key global supply chains, especially in energy and logistics, critical pillars of India’s economic stability.

The latest Monthly Economic Review by India’s Department of Economic Affairs projects a more uncertain economic outlook, citing disruptions to energy supplies and trade routes amid the Middle East conflict.
However, strong domestic growth, steady credit expansion, and resilient services exports continue to cushion the impact.
Despite rising risks, India has entered this phase from a sector steady.

The scale of disruption is stark. Ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly come to a standstill, from 200-300 a week to one a week, the review notes. This dramatic slowdown has tightened global oil and gas supply, pushing prices higher and increasing volatility across international markets.

The report warns of supply disruptions to oil, gas and fertilisers, higher import prices, higher logistics costs, and a possible decline in remittances by Indians in the Gulf countries.

These risks are particularly significant for India, which relies heavily on energy imports and has a large expatriate workforce in the Gulf region, contributing to remittance inflows.

Despite the risks, the review says India entered this phase from a position of strength.

On the domestic front, industrial activity has remained resilient.

“Retail inflation rose to a 10-month high of 3.21 per cent in February 2026, driven primarily by a sharp uptick in food prices,” said the review.

At the same time, the financial system continues to support growth. Bank credit expanded strongly, and the overall flow of financial resources to the commercial sector grew at 33.2 per cent (YoY).

The Finance Ministry review report emphasises the need for policy vigilance amid rising uncertainty.

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