Fashion
ASEAN+3 growth outlook upgraded to 4.1% for 2025: AMRO
In its ASEAN+3 Financial Stability Report (AFSR) 2025 and the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) October update, AMRO highlighted the region’s resilience amid US trade policy shifts and geopolitical tensions. Additionally, growing uncertainty around the US dollar’s safe-haven status could further fragment the global financial landscape, AMRO said in a press release.
“While intra-regional trade and domestic demand have become increasingly important growth drivers across ASEAN+3, the region remains deeply connected to the global financial system and is therefore not insulated from global shocks,” said Dong He, chief economist at AMRO. “Overall, the region’s financial system remains resilient, although pockets of vulnerabilities persist.”
The ASEAN+3 region’s growth outlook has been raised to 4.1 per cent for 2025 and 3.8 per cent for 2026, supported by strong exports and robust fundamentals, as per AMRO.
Despite global uncertainties from US trade policy shifts and financial fragmentation risks, the region remains resilient, aided by ample reserves, sound banking systems, and growing financial integration.
Despite these challenges, ASEAN+3 economies remain well-positioned to navigate global headwinds. Well-calibrated policy mixes and strong fundamentals—including robust banking systems, deepening financial markets, ample foreign reserves, and available policy space—have provided critical buffers. With inflation largely subdued and expectations well-anchored in most economies, central banks can maintain accommodative monetary policy to support growth.
At the same time, macroprudential tools, along with foreign exchange and capital flow management measures, offer additional safeguards to maintain financial stability and mitigate external spillovers. However, AMRO underscored that support should be carefully targeted to vulnerable sectors and deployed prudently to preserve policy space amid elevated external uncertainty.
Beyond near-term risks, the region is undergoing deeper structural transitions. Most notably, the rapid digitalisation of financial services presents opportunities for greater financial inclusion and efficiency, while also introducing new challenges to financial stability.
“Digitalisation of the banking sector is reshaping the market structure, offering new pathways for inclusion and efficiency,” said Runchana Pongsaparn, group head for financial surveillance at AMRO. “But it also alters the nature and distribution of financial stability risks. Policymakers must adopt a multi-pronged strategy that promotes innovation while managing risks, calibrated to the maturity of each market segment.”
As ASEAN+3 manages near-term uncertainties, AMRO emphasised the importance of reinforcing policy frameworks, improving transparency, and deepening domestic markets and buffers to mitigate spillover risks from external shocks, added the release.
She concluded: “With coordinated actions and deeper financial cooperation and integration, ASEAN+3 can turn today’s challenges into tomorrow’s opportunities, and emerge stronger, more connected, and more resilient.”
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)