Sports
Aston Villa couldn’t be crowned Premier League champions, could they?
Aston Villa are on an astonishing run of form that has catapulted them into the Premier League‘s top three: They’ve won 10 of their past 11 league games, and nine in a row across all competitions. During that span they’ve beaten league leaders Arsenal and second-place Manchester City, plus they’ve won every single league game off the back of a midweek European fixture, which is notoriously tough to do.
So with Manchester United to come this weekend and Unai Emery’s men sitting only three points off top spot, fully five clear of fourth place, people have begun to ask the question: Are Villa genuinely in the 2025-26 title race?
We might not be able to answer that fully until March or April, but here’s how they got there.
A terrible summer
The fact that Villa are third in the table is made all the more remarkable by the fact they failed to win any of their first five games this season. Over that period, they lost to Brentford and Crystal Palace, and drew with Newcastle United, Everton and Sunderland, scoring only one goal in the process.
There’s no doubt that a poor summer transfer window played a part in the sloppy start. In July, Villa were fined by UEFA for breaching its cost-control rules — the club spent too much money given the revenue they generated — and entered into a settlement agreement with European football’s governing body. The agreement mandated that the club must end the summer with a positive transfer balance, which led to the club posting a £15 million profit for the window. But not only were top players almost impossible to sign, every single player’s future at Villa was uncertain until the window shut.
The £39 million (rising to £43 million) departure of homegrown midfielder Jacob Ramsey to Newcastle United was the key to generating the required revenue, but reports suggested the dressing room was far from happy with how that deal — and the summer overall — played out. And England international defender Ezri Konsa went as far as openly saying: “It’s really killed us.”
There’s no doubt this played a huge role in Villa’s sluggish start.
Torres’ return boosts form
The turnaround began in the UEFA Europa League opener at home to Bologna, where a Villa team low on confidence struggled its way to a 1-0 win in late September. That was followed by a first Premier League victory, 3-1 over Fulham, and from there the club gained steam.
One key change was the reintroduction of Pau Torres, Villa’s best passing center back by far, to the defensive line after a spell on the bench. The Spain international is able to move the ball up the pitch more quickly than his teammates, and he’s also the best at retaining possession, which is crucial to Emery’s controlling style.
So it was a simple case of Torres bringing an element of composure to Villa’s possession, giving them enough of a platform to start improving elsewhere.
From there, the form of some key players improved. Attacker Morgan Rogers hit his stride and is now playing the best football of his career — he has five goals and three assists in his past 11 appearances — while others perked up too, notably defender Matty Cash and midfielder John McGinn, both of whom have scored important goals, and forward Emi Buendía‘s impact off the bench has been game-changing at times.
Stats tell a different story
Questions have been raised over whether Villa’s run of results is sustainable — and not only because if they were to beat Man United this weekend, Emery would become the first Villa manager in over a century to record two separate runs of 10 consecutive home wins. It’s because the underlying statistics portray the team very differently to the way the official table does.
For example, the Premier League’s expected goals differential (xGD) table has Villa in 14th place. That metric takes the club’s total xG (16.7) and subtracts their xGA (expected goals against, 21.4), which results in minus-4.7. For context, Arsenal top that table with plus-16.9, while Burnley are bottom at minus-18.0.
Even if you generously remove Villa’s terrible first five games from the sample size, Villa’s xGD is minus-0.34, which puts them 11th. It’s not gaining 30 points from a possible 33 levels of form.
So why the disparity? How have Villa piled up the points at a rate no other team can match for the past two months, sparking mutters of a title charge, but graded out as distinctly average in the data, causing analysts to sound caution?
The answer lies in the type of goals Villa have scored.
Long shooting breaks the model
An incredible 10 of Villa’s 25 Premier League goals so far have come from outside the box. That’s more than any other team in Europe this season, and at least two more than anyone else in the Premier League.
In a run of games spanning roughly 40 days, starting with Tottenham Hotspur away on Oct. 19 and ending with Wolves at home on Nov. 30, seven of their eight goals came from outside the box. This repertoire included two free kicks, a left-footed effort from right back Cash, and a rare goal from defensive midfielder Boubacar Kamara.
When questioned about this after beating Wolves 1-0, Emery framed it as a genuine tactic: “They are practicing a lot every training session and shooting like that. The first 20 minutes they defended so low so we need to shoot and be clinical. We are responding as a team tactically.”
It should be noted that this flies in the face of how the modern game has evolved over the past 15 years, as the introduction of xG has laid bare how slim the chances of scoring from range generally are.
For a start, it has led to a massive reduction in long shooting. During the 2011-12 Premier League season, 4,829 shots were taken from outside the box, but by the 2024-25 season, that number had dropped to 3,113 — a decrease of 35.5%. The average distance from which a shot is taken has also reduced from 17.9 yards to 15.8, via Opta.
Villa firing in goals from range — including an epic winner from Rogers last weekend against West Ham, rated at just 0.04 xG — has led to them outperforming their xG total by 8.3, the widest margin in the division.
Good teams and good players overperform their xG, but only to a certain degree. And probably not to this extent.
The Kansas City Chiefs of soccer?
However, xG isn’t the only place Aston Villa are running the margins pretty fine. Eight of their 10 wins have been by just a single goal, and only one result — a 4-0 home win over AFC Bournemouth — stands out as a dominant scoreline. Compare this to Arsenal, who have won six Premier League games by 2-plus goals (and beat Atlético Madrid 4-0 and Bayern Munich 3-1 in Europe) or Manchester City, who have won eight league games by 2-plus goals (and beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabéu), and it does paint a picture.
Villa rarely put teams away emphatically and are frequently forced to defend one-goal leads at the end of games. Now credit where it’s due: They are clearly excellent at this, and their success in this area is perhaps the key reason they’ve shot up the table.
Compare and contrast their composure in these scenarios to teams you’d expect to be challenging for the top five, like Newcastle United or Manchester United, and they are worlds apart. The Magpies are conceding so many late goals that manager Eddie Howe has labeled it a psychological issue, while just this month United squandered leads against West Ham and Bournemouth in the 83rd minute or later.
But these two teams serve as cautionary tales. Football is chaotic and random; one-goal leads bring jeopardy. On the balance of probabilities, a team playing out a lot of tight affairs do not win every single one — and even if they do for a spell, it can turn around very quickly.
To draw an NFL comparison, Villa very much look like the Kansas City Chiefs, who went 11-0 in one-score games in the 2024 regular season. Some of those victories were almost beyond belief, courtesy of blocked field goal attempts and spectacular final plays. They ran the margins very fine.
But the concerning part for Villa is that in the following year, the Chiefs lost their first five one-score games in a row, eventually breaking that streak with an overtime win against the Indianapolis Colts. It just shows that close games will not consistently run in your favor forever.
Will squad depth halt their charge?
Since early November, there has been an obvious uptick in Villa’s underlying creative numbers. Their xG in wins against Bournemouth (1.7), Leeds United (1.6) and Brighton (2.3) was more than fine, and the 2.1 xG they accumulated against Arsenal was the most any team has racked up against the Gunners all season — including Liverpool, Man City and Bayern.
The majority of these games were won by a single goal — in fact, Arsenal were beaten by the last kick of the game — but at least Emery’s men felt as if they were moving through the gears in attack.
In fact, they’ve achieved a remarkable amount considering striker Ollie Watkins is having a difficult season with only three goals in 16 league appearances. Though Emery has mentioned that the 29-year-old is dealing with a knee issue, which seems to be affecting his top speed and ability to get shots off.
If Villa could begin to get strong production from their No. 9 — be it Watkins, backup Donyell Malen, or a clever (and cheap) January transfer window addition — they could easily go up another gear in the final third.
Where Villa really fall short in comparison to title rivals Arsenal and Man City, though, is in squad depth. There’s a significant drop-off in quality from Rogers to the next Villa attacker; Konsa and Torres to the next center backs; and Cash to the next right back.
Compare this to Arsenal, who have two class players for every position and have already shown they can cope without star forward Bukayo Saka and midfielder Martin Ødegaard, while they also have an army of elite defenders to call upon; or Man City, whose fully rotated team boasts £40 million-plus players across the park.
Realistically, Villa will struggle to compete with this over the course of a full season — especially given they have a Europa League campaign to manage too.
Emery’s side have rebounded from tough circumstances to put themselves in a phenomenal position, but they are not a dominant team — in scoreline, in underlying numbers, even in average possession — nor are they stacked with the options you probably need to reach 80-plus points.
But that’s OK. What’s crucial for the club is they’ve put themselves at the head of the pack jostling for Champions League qualification. They’re 11 points clear of Newcastle and Tottenham Hotspur, and could go 10 clear of Man United if they beat them this weekend. If title aspirations fall by the wayside, yet UCL football is secured, most Villa fans would be OK with that.
Sports
Jontay Porter, who was given a lifetime ban by the NBA for gambling, makes pro basketball comeback in USBL
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Jontay Porter, whom the NBA banned for life for gambling in 2024, is making his return to the court.
Porter, 26, is going to the Seattle SuperHawks, a member of the re-created United States Basketball League. The SuperHawks announced Porter’s signing on Wednesday. The team begins its season on March 7.
Porter is currently awaiting sentencing after he pleaded guilty to a related federal charge. In July 2024, he pleaded guilty to a federal court in Brooklyn to one count of conspiracy to commit fraud, a sentence that carries up to 20 years in prison.
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Jontay Porter (34) of the Toronto Raptors warms up before a game against the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center. The game was played in Portland, Oregon, on March 9, 2024. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
However, Porter is expected to get a sentencing of between 3 and 4 years. The former Toronto Raptors player was accused of manipulating his performance in coordination with gamblers to win prop bets during two games in the 2023-24 season.
Porter also won $22,000 by gambling on 13 NBA games that he didn’t play in, which is a violation of league rules, according to an NBA investigation.
Jontay Porter (34) of the Toronto Raptors handles the ball during a game against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena. The game was played in Detroit, Michigan, on March 13, 2024. (Brian Sevald/NBAE via Getty Images)
Federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of New York indicted dozens of others based on the investigation that began with Porter. Miami Heat guard Terry Roziers, former Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chancey Billups and former NBA player and assistant coach Damon Jones were all indicted as part of the expanded investigation into Porter.
Porter spent two seasons in the NBA. He signed with the Memphis Grizzlies as an undrafted free agent out of Missouri and played 11 games with them in the 2020-21 season. After spending two years out of the NBA, he played 26 games with the Raptors in the 2023-24 season.
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Jontay Porter of the Toronto Raptors fights for a rebound with Lindy Waters III of the Oklahoma City Thunder during a 2023–2024 NBA regular-season game between the Raptors and the Thunder in Toronto on March 22, 2024. (Zou Zheng/Xinhua via Getty Images)
In 37 career NBA games, Porter averaged 3.7 points per game.
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Related Article
Over three years have passed since the Premier League announced it was charging Manchester City for breaching a long list of rules related to alleged wrongdoing. Most of them relate to actions taken to circumvent financial regulation, from false accounting to making payments off the books to failing to cooperate with investigators. City deny the charges.
Depending on the number of charges on which they are found guilty (if any) City could face a range of sanctions, from fines and points deductions to being stripped of titles to outright expulsion from the Premier League. If they’re found guilty — depending on the nature and number of the charges — they also run the risk of having to pay damages via the league’s arbitration process as other clubs could seek compensation for lost revenue. A three-person independent panel is tasked with issuing a verdict.
“While the complexity of the Manchester City case is undeniable — and unique in a sporting context — similar commercial cases have reached decisions in far less time than the 15 months we’ve seen here,” Stefan Borson, head of sport at London-based law firm McCarthy Denning, tells ESPN. “There are few legitimate excuses, and there is an urgent need for progress.”
Let’s start with the obvious: Why is this taking so long?
To some degree, we can only speculate because the whole process is shrouded in secrecy. This is partly due to the fact that the Premier League’s own rules allow defendants to request confidential hearings, and partly due to British law and safeguards that protect defendants in certain situations.
One example illustrates this well. The investigation into City began in Dec. 2018 following the publication of the “Football Leaks” documents by the German magazine “Der Spiegel.” But we only found out that there even was an investigation in March 2021 after a High Court judgement ruled against City, who had tried to block investigators’ access to documents. The start date of the investigation was later confirmed in official documents, but there wasn’t even confirmation from the Premier League that City were even under scrutiny.
It’s a similar story with the hearings themselves, which are confidential and held in private. We know they started on Sept. 16, 2024, at the International Dispute Resolution Centre in London because this was leaked, and media photographed lawyers for both sides arriving and leaving the venue. We know the hearing concluded in Dec. 2024 because Manchester City mention it in their 2024-25 annual report and because, in Feb. 2025, Pep Guardiola, the City coach, said the verdict would come out “in one month.”
One month? Wow, it’s been 12 months and counting…
Yes, and that tells you the degree to which everybody’s lips have been sealed in this process. There is so little that we know about it, other than the charges. For example, we don’t even know for certain the identity of the three members of the independent commission that will sit in judgement. The trio was assembled by Murray Rosen, chair of the Premier League’s judicial panel at the time. Some reports suggest Rosen named himself to the panel, but that is unconfirmed.
Anyway, if the hearing concluded in Dec. 2024, why it is taking so long for the panel to issue a verdict?
Correct.
We’re in the realm of speculation here, but there are several reasons cited by sports lawyers.
The first is that this is a massive, hugely complicated case. We’re not even certain of the exact number of charges. It came to be known as the “115 charges” case because that’s the number of bullet points in the original document, but according to multiple reports, the number of individual rule breaches in the document is 130, though it’s possible that some are overlapping (i.e. one action violates multiple rules).
It’s also possible, as some reports have suggested, that since the original document was issued, more charges were added, most likely relating to failure to cooperate. Whatever the number, each of the charges must be proved individually with specific evidence.
Furthermore, many of the charges in practice allege deliberate intent to mislead regulators and/or obstruct investigators. The panel isn’t just deciding whether City breached spending regulations, but whether they intentionally breached them and then covered it up to violate the spirit of the rules and, later, knowingly withheld evidence. To make an analogy, it’s the difference between speeding on the highway and speeding on the highway while remotely manipulating the police officer’s radar gun and then spewing a bunch of sovereign citizen nonsense to intentionally screw up your traffic stop. The burden of proof is far higher in the latter case.
Bear in mind that the panel won’t just be issuing a verdict and a sentence. It will be issuing what are known as “written reasons” detailing how it arrived at its conclusions. These “written reasons” could form the basis of any appeal — whether by City or by the Premier League — and therefore need to be “bullet-proof” when it comes to scrutiny.
Still… They’ve had more than a year to issue a verdict since the hearing concluded in Dec. 2024 and, presumably, they have staff to help them…
That’s where another factor comes in. It’s highly likely that the panel members aren’t working on this full-time. You’d assume all three have day jobs and other commitments; presumably, the panel allocated a certain amount of time to hear and deliberate on the case, but it proved to be far more complex than anticipated, and so they members have had to work around their calendars, finding time as and when.
“The members of the independent commission have undoubtedly had other commitments since the hearing ended and they will be acutely aware of making the decision as robust against appeal as possible, given the unprecedented scrutiny this ruling will attract,” said Borson.
Why wouldn’t more time have been allocated to the deliberations?
That’s another mystery. I guess if you want top-notch legal and financial experts to deliberate, you have to accept that they will be in demand elsewhere. This isn’t a jury that’s being sequestered in a room; these are senior figures who handle very important cases in their everyday lives. They can’t just check out indefinitely.
There’s another potential explanation here. While it’s a remote possibility, it would help explain a number of the mysteries surrounding this case.
What’s that?
What if, separate from the arbitration proceedings, the Premier League and City are trying to hammer out some sort of settlement deal? After all, the Premier League is nothing more than its 20 member clubs. If they all agree on an outcome, that’s that. Now, I think it’s unlikely, partly because clubs are notoriously leaky (and there hasn’t been a peep) and partly because it would be extremely difficult to agree to something all sides could accept.
What might it look like? City would need to admit to some level of wrongdoing and take some level of punishment, while rival clubs would need to drop threats of legal action to recover damages.
How would one even do this? Maybe by dumping the blame on the people running the club and arguing that City’s owners were entirely unaware and were, in fact, duped by the folks they employed. And then negotiating a sanction severe enough — massive fine? Some vacated titles? — that the “victim clubs” accept it, but not so severe that it ruins City’s chance of being competitive in the medium term. Why? Because otherwise, they’re not going to accept it and will take their chances with the commission and, possibly, the appeal.
Again, I think it’s highly unlikely, but it would explain why deliberations are taking so long. And it would give the Premier League closure and allow it to move on. Because even when the verdict does come in, it’s highly likely that the losing side will appeal. And this will only drag the process out further, which is not good for the Premier League.
After being loudly booed, Vinícius Júnior danced again. This time in front of Real Madrid supporters while leading his team to the round of 16 of the Champions League, a week after accusing a Benfica opponent of racially insulting him.
The Brazilian scored in the 80th minute to clinch a 2-1 victory for the record 15-time European champions in the second leg of their playoff tie to progress 3-1 on aggregate.
Vinícius celebrated by dancing by the corner flag just like in the first leg — then in front of Benfica fans — which ignited a confrontation with the Portuguese team’s players and the accusation that Gianluca Prestianni called him a racist slur.
“I’m glad Vini dances and keeps dancing, that means he’s scoring goals,” said Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.
“That’s our Vinícius,” added midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni, who scored Madrid’s first goal in the 16th, a couple of minutes after Benfica had taken the lead through Rafa Silva.
Prestianni, who has denied racially insulting Vinícius and has been defended by Benfica, was provisionally suspended one match by UEFA and did not play Wednesday even though the Argentine traveled to the Spanish capital. UEFA earlier Wednesday rejected Benfica’s last-minute appeal against the provisional suspension.
Last week’s match was halted for nearly 10 minutes after the referee installed the anti-racism protocol following Vinícius’ complaint to him.
On Wednesday, Vinícius scored on a breakaway, calmly sending a low shot past the goalkeeper for his sixth goal in his past five matches for Madrid.
The more than 3,000 Benfica fans at the Bernabéu jeered nearly every time Vinícius touched the ball. They celebrated when he lost control of the ball early in the game. The Benfica supporters also booed emphatically when the name of the Brazilian player was announced in the starting lineup ahead of the match.
The boos gradually lost force as the match went on and Madrid took control of the game.
Vinícius also participated in the buildup of what would have been Madrid’s second goal, but it was disallowed for offside.
Before Wednesday’s match, Madrid fans displayed a banner saying “No To Racism.” A “respect” banner also was shown behind one of the goals at the Bernabéu.
Real Madrid said in a statement after the match it “urgently requested” the club’s disciplinary committee to open a procedure to expel a fan who was caught by television cameras performing a Nazi salute before the match.
Madrid said the supporter appeared to be part of its organized fan group behind one of the goals at the Bernabeu.
“This member was identified by the club’s security staff moments after appearing on the broadcast and was immediately expelled from the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium,” the club said. “Real Madrid condemns this type of gesture and expression that incites violence and hatred in sports and society.”
Madrid fans also jeered when Benfica central defender Nicolás Otamendi touched the ball. Otamendi, who is also Argentine, was one of the players that confronted Vinícius after the Brazilian’s celebration by the Benfica flag.
Also missing for Benfica was coach José Mourinho, the former Madrid coach who was sent off late in the first leg for complaining to the referee. Mourinho did not participate in the pregame news conference Tuesday and was expected to watch the match from the stands at the Bernabéu.
Madrid defender Raúl Asencio had to be carried off the field on a stretcher and taken to a local hospital for tests after a hard collision with teammate Eduardo Camavinga in the second half.
The central defender hit the ground hard and had to be attended to for a few minutes on the field. The medical staff immobilized him before taking him off the field.
Madrid coach Álvaro Arbeloa said Asencio apparently injured his neck but “it wasn’t serious.”
Madrid were already without France forward Kylian Mbappé, who missed Wednesday’s game with a knee injury.
“I hope it’s not serious, and he can come back in a few days or weeks,” Arbeloa said.
“Without Kylian, we need [Vini] even more. … He has to be our leader.”
ESPN’s Alex Kirkland and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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