Australia holds cash rate at 3.6% as inflation risks rise

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent, as policymakers weighed a firmer-than-expected economic recovery against signs of a fresh pick-up in inflation. The Monetary Policy Board said the decision was unanimous.

Australia’s central bank has kept the cash rate at 3.60 per cent, citing mixed signals.
Inflation has eased but recently picked up, with some signs of broader price pressures.
Economic momentum has strengthened, while the labour market is softening.
With risks to inflation shifting upward, the Board opted for caution and will closely monitor global and domestic developments.

Inflation has eased significantly from its 2022 peak, but recent data show a renewed rise. The bank noted that part of the increase in underlying inflation appears temporary, and emphasised uncertainty around the monthly CPI series given its relative newness. Even so, there are emerging signals of a more broadly based acceleration in prices that could prove persistent, warranting close monitoring.

Economic momentum has strengthened, with private demand recovering through improved consumption and investment. Effects of earlier rate cuts have yet to fully filter through the economy. However, the bank acknowledged that money market rates and government bond yields have climbed recently, tightening conditions at the margin.

Labour market indicators show a gradual softening, though conditions remain somewhat tight overall. Unemployment has edged higher and employment growth has slowed, but underutilisation is still low and capacity utilisation remains above its long-run average. Many businesses continue to report difficulty sourcing labour. Wage Price Index growth has moderated from its peak, yet broader wage measures remain strong, and unit labour cost growth is still elevated.

The Board highlighted considerable uncertainty in the domestic outlook. The rebound in activity, particularly in the private sector, has been stronger than anticipated and could increase capacity pressures if maintained. Global risks also remain significant, though Australia’s key trading partners have so far experienced limited impact on their growth and trade performance, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a release.

Given these mixed signals, the Board judged it appropriate to stay cautious while reassessing the persistence of inflationary pressures. It said risks to inflation had recently shifted to the upside, even as a modest further easing in labour market tightness is expected.

The bank reiterated that it will closely watch global and financial market developments, domestic demand trends, and the evolution of inflation and employment conditions. It reaffirmed its commitment to achieving price stability and full employment, stating it will take whatever actions are necessary to fulfil its mandate.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)