New Delhi: India’s retail inflation is expected to fall further in October, supported by a high base effect, easing food prices, and the full impact of recent GST reforms, a new report has said. The data compiled by Union Bank of India suggests that inflationary pressures will only rise gradually in the coming months.

The bank said its projection for October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is currently tracking below 0.50 per cent. It also expects food inflation to drop sharply and remain in the negative zone during the winter months, as the impact of recent floods has been limited.

Inflation has already eased to an eight-year low, helped by lower food prices and the rationalisation of GST rates. The report lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 2.6 per cent from the earlier estimate of 3.1 per cent.

It added that inflation is likely to stay below the RBI’s target range for most of the year and may rise slightly in the fourth quarter due to base effects. In September, CPI — which measures the average change in retail prices of goods and services –showed a notable decline compared to the previous month, highlighting a broad moderation in price growth.

The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) stood at -2.28 per cent, indicating that food prices have been falling since June 2025. Data also showed that inflation in rural areas was 1.07 per cent, while urban inflation was slightly higher at 2.04 per cent.

Food inflation remained negative in both segments, at -2.17 per cent in rural areas and -2.47 per cent in urban regions, reflecting the impact of falling prices of vegetables and edible oils. The government attributed this decline to “favourable base effects” and lower prices of key food items such as vegetables, oils, fruits, cereals, pulses, eggs, and fuel.

Economists believe that if the current trend continues, India could maintain a low-inflation environment through the festive and winter seasons, supporting consumer demand and overall economic stability.

Finance Minister Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb met with Turkey’s Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, in Washington, DC, where both sides acknowledged the ongoing high-level engagements between the leadership of Pakistan and Turkey.

During his visit to the United States, the two ministers reaffirmed their shared commitment to further strengthening the longstanding brotherly relations between the two countries.

Finance Minister Aurangzeb briefed his Turkish counterpart on Pakistan’s ongoing economic reforms, highlighting initiatives in areas such as tax policy, energy, state-owned enterprises, privatization, and public finance.

He also shared details about the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) reform journey, which was recently presented at a World Bank event, and Pakistan’s efforts to improve its tax-to-GDP ratio.

Aurangzeb discussed the country’s progress in integrating data across government departments to enhance financial management, transparency, and accountability.

Separately, the Finance Minister held a meeting with International Finance Corporation (IFC) Managing Director Makhtar Diop.

He expressed gratitude to the IFC for designating Pakistan as a regional hub under its recent organizational restructuring, describing the recognition as a reflection of growing global confidence in Pakistan’s economy.

Aurangzeb also briefed Makhtar Diop on developments in the Reko Diq mining project and expressed hope that the EXIM Bank would soon join the venture.

He appreciated IFC’s support in financial inclusion and digital payment rights projects at the grassroots level.

Furthermore, he acknowledged IFC’s advisory contributions in the sectors of pharmaceuticals, electric vehicles, and commodity exchanges.

The minister welcomed the IFC Managing Director’s plan to visit Pakistan during the upcoming Spring Meetings.

On this occasion, both Aurangzeb and Makhtar Diop also participated in a signing ceremony for a swap agreement between the State Bank of Pakistan and the IFC.

High gold and silver prices had little effect on festive shopping this Dhanteras, with sales matching last year’s volumes and rising by more than 25% in value.Shoppers across the country flocked to stores to buy coins and lightweight jewellery, driven by hopes that prices will keep climbing.

Industry executives said gold and silver coins were the top choice for many buyers this year as people saw them as a smart investment and a way to avoid the higher making charges on jewellery. Ten-gram, 24-carat gold coins, priced at around Rs 1.40 lakh each, were especially popular, according to ET.Jewellery sales were led by lightweight pieces in 22- and 18-carat gold, while younger customers opted for more affordable 9- and 14-carat options.Surendra Mehta, national secretary of India Bullion & Jewellers Association said, “There was a good rush, with queues in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazar to buy gold and silver coins. The trend from Saturday morning indicates trade will be able to achieve gold volumes of the previous Dhanteras.”Many shoppers had earlier postponed purchases, expecting prices to fall. But with no sign of a correction and indicators pointing to new highs, demand surged. “Now that there is no sign of a correction in prices and all economic indicators are pointing towards fresh highs, people have come out to purchase gold,” Colin Shah, managing director, Kama Jewelry, told ET.Jewellers also noticed growing interest from investors. “Despite record high gold prices, we are witnessing renewed enthusiasm this festive season. Consumers are viewing price volatility as a strategic opportunity to reinvest — whether through gold coins or by upgrading jewellery,” said Ajoy Chawla, CEO of Tanishq.Last year, India sold 39 tonnes of gold on Dhanteras. This year, the Muhurat spans two days, 18 and 19 October. Gold and silver were sold at Friday’s closing prices of Rs 1,34,800 per 10 gm and Rs 1,74,306 per kg, respectively, plus 3% GST, ET reported.Prices have risen sharply over the past year, with gold up 65% and silver up 81% since the last Dhanteras. Retailers in many areas even ran short of coins as demand exceeded expectations. “The trend shows that we will surpass last year Dhanteras sales both by volume and value,” said Baby George, CEO of Joyalukkas.Southern India, which accounts for over 40% of the country’s annual gold consumption of 800–850 tonnes, remained the largest market. But strong coin demand was seen across the country, showing how consumers are adapting their buying patterns in response to price trends.