Fashion
CAI revises India’s 2025-26 cotton output upward to 320.5 lakh bales
According to the March 2026 cotton production estimate report released by Vinay K Kotak, president of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), higher output is expected in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, offsetting declines in Punjab and Rajasthan. Maharashtra alone accounted for an upward revision of 4 lakh bales, indicating better yields and arrivals, while northern states reported marginal reductions.
CAI has raised India’s 2025-26 cotton output estimate to 320.5 lakh bales, supported by better crop prospects in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.
Consumption was also revised higher, while imports were cut.
Despite increased supply and surplus, exports remain weak, indicating comfortable domestic availability and potential pressure on prices.
Alongside higher output, CAI has raised domestic cotton consumption for 2025–26 to 315.00 lakh bales, up by 10 lakh bales from earlier estimates, signalling improved demand from the spinning and textile industry. Consumption till February 28, 2026, is estimated at 131.25 lakh bales, reflecting steady mill activity despite fluctuating yarn demand globally.
On the trade front, cotton imports are now projected at 47.00 lakh bales for the season, down from the earlier estimate of 50 lakh bales, though still higher than 41 lakh bales recorded last year. Around 36 lakh bales had already arrived at Indian ports by end-February, indicating front-loaded imports amid tight domestic availability earlier in the season.
Exports, however, remain subdued. CAI has retained its export estimate at 15 lakh bales for 2025–26, lower than 18 lakh bales in 2024–25, reflecting reduced competitiveness of Indian cotton in the global market due to relatively higher domestic prices. Shipments till end-February are estimated at 7 lakh bales.
India’s total cotton supply for the ongoing season is estimated at 428.09 lakh bales, significantly higher than 392.59 lakh bales in the previous year. This includes opening stock of 60.59 lakh bales, revised production, and imports. Availability till end-February stood at 357.55 lakh bales, indicating ample supply in the domestic market.
The higher supply is expected to translate into a larger surplus. CAI has estimated an available surplus of 113.09 lakh bales by the end of the season, compared with 78.59 lakh bales last year, which could weigh on domestic prices unless export demand improves.
Despite the increase in output and supply, closing stock estimates have been revised downward by 9.50 lakh bales to 98.09 lakh bales for September 30, 2026. However, this remains substantially higher than last year’s closing stock of 60.59 lakh bales, pointing to comfortable inventory levels.
As of February-end, total stock was estimated at 219.30 lakh bales, including 75 lakh bales held by textile mills and 144.30 lakh bales with entities such as the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), traders, and ginners. The CAI noted that it will continue to monitor crop progress and may revise estimates further in the coming months, depending on arrivals and market conditions.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)