Sports
Clay’s NFL season projections and unit grades: The top offenses, defenses, rosters and schedules
Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is around the corner. What better way to raise (or temper) expectations than with a complete breakdown of predictions and projections?
Below is a guide of what to expect once the season kicks off Thursday — including power rankings of all 32 teams, a list of teams that will score the most points and defenses that will allow the fewest, and a look at the toughest and easiest schedules. We also make predictions for the playoffs and Super Bowl LX.
If you’re looking for even more in-depth content, check my rankings and assessments of the best and worst positional units across the league, as well as my 80-page projections PDF.
Jump ahead to …
Schedule: Easiest | Toughest
Offense projections: Best | Worst
Defense projections: Best | Worst
Power rankings | Super Bowl pick

Easiest schedule
![]()
The 49ers are coming off a last-place finish in the NFC West, but that set them up with the league’s easiest projected 2025 schedule. They do not play any of the league’s eight Super Bowl favorites, per ESPN Bet odds (Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Bengals, Commanders), and have many attractive matchups against underwhelming NFC South and AFC South teams.
San Francisco’s unique games are versus the Bears, Giants and Browns — the latter two are projected to finish in the bottom seven of the league, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Titans, Colts, Jaguars and Cardinals round out the top-five easiest schedules.
Toughest schedule
![]()
No surprise here, as the Lions are the defending champions of the tough NFC North. In addition to the six games against the Vikings, Packers and the improved Bears, the Lions will face NFC East and AFC North teams. Detroit’s trio of unique games is also about as hard as you can get: Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams.
The good news for Detroit is that the rest of the division (and several No. 1-seed contenders) will also face a tough slate. The Eagles, Vikings, Giants and Browns round out the top-five toughest schedules.
Projected highest-scoring teams
![]()
The Bills haven’t led the NFL in scoring since 1990, but they’ve been close during the Josh Allen era, ranking no lower than sixth each of the past five seasons (top-three four times). This season, the reigning NFL MVP is set up with a solid (and perhaps improved) supporting cast, led by RB James Cook, WR Khalil Shakir, second-year WR Keon Coleman, TE Dalton Kincaid and newcomer WR Joshua Palmer.
2. Baltimore Ravens, 473 points
3. Philadelphia Eagles, 452 points
Projected lowest-scoring teams
![]()
The Browns were last in scoring in 2024 and haven’t finished better than 10th since 2007. They should be a strong bet to finish at or near the bottom in 2025, especially with so much uncertainty at quarterback (some mix of Joe Flacco, third-round pick Dillon Gabriel and fifth-round pick Shedeur Sanders). Additionally, the once-elite offensive line isn’t as good as years past, and there are no established needle-moving pass catchers behind WR Jerry Jeudy and TE David Njoku.
2. New Orleans Saints, 314 points
3. New York Giants, 332 points
Projected defenses to allow the fewest points
![]()
Though the Texans ranked in the middle of the pack in points allowed last season, their defense finished top five in sacks (49) and forced turnovers (29). They were also first in pass rush win rate (48.7%). Thirteen of the unit’s top 14 players who got the most snaps return this season, including standout edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, safety Jalen Pitre and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
2. Denver Broncos, 357 points
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 358 points
1:13
Why C.J. Stroud ‘feels great’ about new O-line
C.J. Stroud joins “First Take” to discuss how the Texans’ offensive line has improved as a unit to protect him better in the 2025 NFL season.
Projected defenses to allow the most points
![]()
The Cowboys allowed the second-most points last season, and that was with Micah Parsons for 13 games. Parsons was traded to Green Bay on Thursday for defensive tackle Kenny Clark and two first-round picks. Linebacker Eric Kendricks, nickel corner Jourdan Lewis and edge rusher Chauncey Golston are also gone.
Sprinkle in a few lingering injuries (including top linebacker DeMarvion Overshown), and the Cowboys have the shakiest defense in the league. Facing the Eagles and Commanders twice will only boost their points allowed.
2. Las Vegas Raiders, 428 points
3. Carolina Panthers, 427 points
Team-by-team rankings
Asterisks indicate my projected playoff teams.
![]()
This team has it all: an elite coach in John Harbaugh, perhaps the league’s best QB in two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, a terrific offensive supporting cast (led by RB Derrick Henry, WR Zay Flowers, TE Mark Andrews, OT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum) and a terrific defense that returns 10 of its top 11 snap-getters from 2024 (including stars in S Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey, LB Roquan Smith and DT Nnamdi Madubuike). They also strengthened their secondary by signing cornerback Jaire Alexander.
![]()
We already discussed Buffalo’s stellar offensive outlook, but Sean McDermott’s defense deserves some love, as well. Led by edge rusher Greg Rousseau, corner Christian Benford, defensive tackle Ed Oliver and new edge rusher Joey Bosa, this should be a solid unit. The Bills are equipped for another run at a title.
![]()
Injuries decimated the Lions’ defense in 2024, which led to a quick playoff exit after a dominant 15-2 regular season. The departures of coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, as well as new players on the interior offensive line, create notable uncertainties. But Detroit’s roster is still stacked with talent. I expect the Lions to contend for the top NFC seed again despite projecting them to have the toughest schedule.
![]()
The reigning Super Bowl champions took a hit on defense during the offseason, losing edge Brandon Graham, cornerback Darius Slay, edge Josh Sweat, defensive tackle Milton Williams and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. But at its worst, this team is solid on paper because of its elite offense with RB Saquon Barkley, QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown. The Eagles have a legitimate shot to repeat.
![]()
Perhaps the Chiefs are headed for some regression after they had so many close wins last season but suffered a shellacking against the Eagles for the title. But it’s hard to doubt a franchise that has reached five of the past six Super Bowls, including three in a row. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes appears to have more offensive support this season, even with wide receiver Rashee Rice being suspended for the first six games. Their strong defense also returns 13 of its top 15 snap-getters from 2024.
![]()
Tampa Bay has found its franchise quarterback in Baker Mayfield and he’ll have one of the league’s top supporting casts, which now includes first-round wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. The defense still has concerns at certain positions, but the unit can be good enough to give the Bucs a shot at their fifth consecutive division title and sixth straight trip to the postseason.
![]()
Sean Payton turned Denver into a playoff team last season, and he’ll have an even better squad on paper this season. A defense led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and defensive tackle Zach Allen is outstanding, and it added more playmakers in two former 49ers (LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga). Second-year QB Bo Nix will benefit from a terrific offensive line and skill-position upgrades like tight end Evan Engram.
![]()
Quarterback Matthew Stafford‘s back injury could derail things, but the Rams have constructed one of their best rosters in several years. They struck gold with edge rusher Jared Verse, the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year, and we know they’re well-coached under Sean McVay. On offense, they replaced wide receiver Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams, who tied for 15th in ESPN’s open receiver score last season.
![]()
The Vikings remain elite in a lot of areas, including offensive line, pass catchers (led by WR Justin Jefferson) and defense (a unit that includes defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave). The big question, of course, is how well quarterback J.J. McCarthy plays after the 2024 first-round pick missed his rookie season because of a knee injury.
![]()
The Packers are solid on both sides of the ball, and the offense could be even better with improved targets, including first-round receiver Matthew Golden, and a fully healthy QB in Jordan Love. The blockbuster trade for edge rusher Micah Parsons revamps their defensive line and could be enough to cement Green Bay as a playoff contender.
![]()
Second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels appears to be the real deal and can carry this team far, especially with more veterans on offense, such as left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The defense remains a major red flag, but defensive mastermind Dan Quinn could again coach it into a competent unit.
![]()
The Bengals have missed the playoffs in back-to-back years despite winning nine-plus games in four consecutive seasons. It’s hard to imagine a team that has quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (both in the top 10 of our top 100 players) missing the postseason again, but giant questions loom along the offensive line and defense.
![]()
The Bears are one of the league’s most fascinating teams. New coach/offensive mastermind Ben Johnson will look to get the most out of second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, who will have the benefit of a terrific young group of pass catchers and a much-improved offensive line. The defense is, at worst, solid and helps give Chicago a legit shot at the postseason.
2:00
Why Mina Kimes expects a big turnaround from Caleb Williams
Mina Kimes and Chris Canty discuss whether they expect a bigger turnaround from Caleb Williams or Bryce Young this NFL season.
![]()
Losing elite left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season is brutal, and the Chargers’ defense certainly has several concerning areas — the unit ranked in the bottom 10 at linebacker and cornerback in my positional group rankings. Still, the Justin Herbert-led offense looks good, and Jim Harbaugh’s record speaks for itself (55-25-1 in five seasons as an NFL head coach).
![]()
A T.J. Watt-led defense that added cornerback Jalen Ramsey this offseason is perhaps the league’s best on paper, but the big question is how much the team will get out of 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers couldn’t move the needle for a talented Jets roster last season, and this offensive supporting cast is below average. Mike Tomlin’s leadership should keep this team in the wild-card mix, though.
![]()
AFC sleeper alert! The Patriots are much better in nearly all areas compared with last season. After finishing with the fewest sacks in the NFL last season (28), the defense improved by signing DT Milton Williams, edge Harold Landry III, LB Robert Spillane and CB Carlton Davis III. Second-year QB Drake Maye will have wide receiver Stefon Diggs and rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson as options. And Mike Vrabel replaced Jerod Mayo as head coach.
![]()
Houston remains the favorite in the AFC South, with an aforementioned terrific defense and a solid offense. There are some lingering offensive line concerns, as the unit could have four new starters this season, but third-year QB C.J. Stroud and standout wideout Nico Collins give this team a higher floor.
![]()
NFC sleeper alert! Jonathan Gannon’s defense is much improved after investing heavily up front. The Cardinals signed edge Josh Sweat, along with defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell in free agency. And in the draft, they took defensive tackle Walter Nolen III in the first round, though he will start the season on the reserve/PUP list because of a calf issue. The Kyler Murray-led offense could also be better if wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. makes a Year 2 leap.
![]()
As usual, Kyle Shanahan’s offense figures to be very good, but injuries at wide receiver are already piling up — the 49ers aren’t sure if Jauan Jennings will be available for Week 1. The big red flag here is a defense that had many notable departures, leaving the 49ers with big concerns at defensive tackle, corner and safety. Edge rusher Nick Bosa and new coordinator Robert Saleh will have their work cut out for them.
![]()
Quarterback aside, the Colts arguably have a top-10 roster. The defense looks pretty good (cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Cam Bynum were much-needed upgrades in the secondary), and the offense includes several difference-makers (RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., G Quenton Nelson, OT Braden Smith and first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren). If new starting QB Daniel Jones can give the team somewhat competent play, the Colts might surprise the league.
![]()
Mike McDonald’s defense looks to have the league’s best interior line, including Leonard Williams, second-year Byron Murphy II and Jarran Reed. The offense is more of a wild card, as new quarterback Sam Darnold will need to sustain his improved play from 2024. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp and running back Kenneth Walker III will need to stay healthy, too.
![]()
With Tua Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins’ offense has a ton of upside, but it also struggled to make the most of receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last season. The offensive line is concerning. The defense is even shakier, especially with all five secondary starters from 2024 gone and little done to replace them. There’s also uncertainty at edge rusher after Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips missed most of the past two seasons. This is a career-defining year for coach Mike McDaniel.
![]()
The Falcons’ defense finished with the second-fewest sacks last season (31), but there’s potential for a step forward if first-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. are the real deal. The offense has a much brighter outlook, but second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. started only three games last season and threw an interception in each one. He has a good supporting cast, led by WR Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson and a quality line, but Penix will need a Year 2 leap for Atlanta to enter the playoff discussion.
![]()
Dallas’ offseason had more headlines than impact additions. A healthy Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb duo will be a big boost in the right direction, but an offensive line already battling injuries isn’t what it was a few years ago. The defense also has to figure out its identity without Micah Parsons on the edge.
![]()
The Giants have clear weak spots, but there’s potential for them to outperform this ranking. The defense is quietly very good on paper after the additions of cornerback Paulson Adebo, safety Jevon Holland and first-round edge rusher Abdul Carter to a group that already included DT Dexter Lawrence II, edge Brian Burns and LB Bobby Okereke. The offense, led by WR Malik Nabers, has questions along the line, but competent QB play from Russell Wilson or first-round pick Jaxson Dart can get this team into the wild-card discussion.
![]()
The Jets fumbled away a stacked roster last season, and the outlook doesn’t appear bright now. A defense that includes DT Quinnen Williams, edge Jermaine Johnson and CB Sauce Gardner should be above average, but an offense led by quarterback Justin Fields and unproven skill players beyond wide receiver Garrett Wilson figures to be very limited.
![]()
The Jaguars drafted one of the league’s most interesting players in Travis Hunter, but the rookie will be hard-pressed to make up for the voids this roster has on both sides of the ball. Little (no pun intended, Walker Little) was done to address perhaps the league’s shakiest offensive line, which puts added pressure on quarterback Trevor Lawrence under new coach Liam Coen. The defense should be solid, with edge Josh Hines-Allen, LB Foyesade Oluokun and CB Tyson Campbell among the impact players.
![]()
The Titans are entering a new era with No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward at quarterback. Tennessee improved its offensive line, but growing pains are probable and the skill positions are still a work in progress. And besides the great defensive tackle duo of Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat, the defense doesn’t have much for opponents to fear.
![]()
Quarterback Bryce Young started to show some life late last season and another step forward will be the key to Carolina outproducing this ranking. He’ll have a better supporting cast after the team selected wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the first round. But the league’s worst scoring defense in 2024 could still be shaky — the return to health for star defensive tackle Derrick Brown will be a big help.
![]()
Perhaps Pete Carroll can coach this team out of the basement, but even with the additions of QB Geno Smith and RB Ashton Jeanty on offense and the presence of edge Maxx Crosby on an otherwise shaky defense, this roster has too many weak points. I had them ranked last at wide receiver and 30th overall in my positional group rankings.
0:47
Dopp: Ashton Jeanty can be an anchor RB for fantasy managers
Daniel Dopp breaks down why Ashton Jeanty can be an anchor RB for fantasy managers.
![]()
The Browns’ defense took a giant step back last season and now looks like a bottom-10 unit on paper (even with edge rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward). The offense is in flux and might not improve until Cleveland takes another flier on a franchise quarterback in the 2026 draft.
![]()
Derek Carr’s sudden retirement cemented this one, as Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough will have to step up at quarterback this season. If that’s not enough, the cornerback group might be shakiest in the NFL, and there are age and/or injury concerns with RB Alvin Kamara, LB Demario Davis, edge Cameron Jordan, WR Chris Olave and TE Taysom Hill.
![]()
![]()
Super Bowl LX prediction: Ravens over Lions
It’s no secret that the Ravens have yet to register a Super Bowl appearance during the Lamar Jackson era (or since 2012), but that could change this season. Baltimore has perhaps its best roster on paper since it defeated the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII, sitting at No. 1 in my overall positional group rankings.
The Lions were the best team in the NFL last season before being derailed by a ridiculous stretch of defensive injuries. Now (mostly) healthy, they have a good shot to fend off the defending champion Eagles in the NFC playoffs, reaching their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
Offensive unit grade rankings
Defensive unit grade rankings
Sports
José Mourinho rejects ‘soap opera’ links to Real Madrid vacancy
Benfica coach José Mourinho has shut down “soap opera” rumours of a potential return to Real Madrid this summer.
Madrid parted company with Xabi Alonso last week after he had less than eight months in charge and appointed Álvaro Arbeloa, coach of Madrid’s reserves, as his replacement.
Asked about speculation in Spain that Madrid are looking to bring him back for the 2026-27 campaign, Mourinho said following Benfica’s 2-0 win at Rio Ave on Saturday: “Don’t count on me for soap operas. There are many good soap operas, but they take too long.
“Then you miss an episode or two and you lose track. Don’t count on me, I don’t watch soap operas.”
Mourinho, 62, guided Madrid to a LaLiga title, and Copa del Rey and Spanish Supercup triumphs during his three seasons (2010-13) with the Spanish giants.
The former Chelsea and Manchester United manager took the reins at Benfica in September and has a contract until June 2027.
– Marcus Rashford scores, Jude Bellingham jeered – the latest at Real Madrid, Barcelona
– Kylian Mbappé only trails Cristiano Ronaldo in race to 50 LaLiga goals
Benfica, third in the Primeira Liga, 10 points adrift of leaders FC Porto, play at Juventus in Wednesday’s Champions League before hosting Mourinho’s former club Real Madrid on Jan. 28.
Sports
NFL playoffs: Divisional round questions, overreactions
The NFL divisional round began with an incredible game in Denver on Saturday. The Bills and Broncos went to overtime, but the Broncos emerged after hitting a 23-yard field goal to win it in the extra frame. But it came at a cost; quarterback Bo Nix went down because of an ankle injury. The second game was more one-sided, as the Seahawks blew out the 49ers on Saturday night.
Sunday began with the Patriots’ win over the Texans, with New England capitalizing on four C.J. Stroud interceptions. To cap the weekend, the Rams beat the Bears on Sunday night in a wild overtime stunner.
What are the main lessons and takeaways from each divisional round matchup, and what’s next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the second round and look forward from all angles. For each divisional round game, Solak is answering one big remaining question, and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.
Let’s jump in, making sense of Matthew Stafford‘s current play, Caleb Williams‘ place in the 2024 draft class, Stroud’s performance, the Patriots’ defense, the Seahawks’ great roster, the 49ers’ decimated roster, the Nix injury news and the Bills’ playoff woes.
Jump to:
LAR-CHI | HOU-NE
SF-SEA | BUF-DEN

![]()
![]()
‘The Bears would be in the NFC Championship Game if they’d drafted Drake Maye instead of Caleb Williams.’ Overreaction?
YES, OVERREACTION! C’MON! Sure, Maye’s team is still playing and Williams’ team isn’t. And sure, part of the reason is Williams’ overtime interception that cost the Bears a chance at a game-winning field goal and gave the Rams the opportunity to win it. The variance on Williams can be maddening. He had the lowest completion percentage of any qualified quarterback in the NFL this season. His game still needs refining. But c’mon, did you see that touchdown throw that sent the game to overtime?
Caleb Williams is the reason we watch sports. This is not hyperbole. You can tell me you watch because you bet on it, or because you play fantasy, or because you were born into the particular fandom of a particular team and enjoy suffering and celebrating with like-minded individuals. Any and all of that might be true. But on a fundamental level, the reason we watch sports is to be amazed by what human beings can accomplish when they explore or exceed the limits of human potential. Williams crystallizes all of this.
Yes, Matthew Stafford and the Rams won the game. But what I’ll remember is that Sean McVay didn’t trust Stafford to make a third-down throw when one would have put away the game in the final minutes of regulation, and that Williams made one of the most incredible, impossible fourth-down passes of all time a few moments later to tie the score and send the game to OT. Williams simply can do things other people cannot.
Maye is awesome — a wonderful, wonderful young player with a bright future ahead of him that might include a Super Bowl title in his second year as a pro. He might have a better career than Williams. But if you’re a Bears fan, you aren’t wishing your team had Maye instead. Heck, Maye has taken 10 sacks and fumbled six times in two playoff games so far. It’s not like he’s immune to mistakes. Williams obviously isn’t, either, and he’ll be kicking himself that he didn’t get it done Sunday night when the chance was in front of him. But I come out of this weekend thinking I want to watch every game Williams plays again because when he plays, anything is possible.
If you’re a Bears fan, the fact that anything is possible is a massive win, especially at quarterback, where your team has struggled to find an answer for literally more than a century. You’re bummed your team’s season is over, but you cannot wait until next season because you know you have an absolute star at the most important position. Hopefully, we get to see Maye and Williams play Super Bowls against each other in the future, and we get to debate this for years to come.
In the meantime, I don’t think either team is regretting its pick. And the Bears might have the most fun and exciting player in the NFL. — Graziano
The lingering question: Why is Stafford in a funk — and can the Rams get him out of it?
Here’s the good news: The Rams have won two playoff games, both on the road. That’s hard to do. Here’s the bad news: They look like they’re barely hanging on.
Stafford had a dropback success rate of 31.8% in this game — easily his worst in any game this season. His previous low was 41.2%. The game against the Panthers last week was his fifth lowest by success rate. On a down-to-down basis, the Rams’ passing game feels like it’s reeling. Give credit to the defenses the Rams have faced. The Panthers and Bears did a great job packing the intermediate zones and forcing the Rams to attempt more passes outside the numbers. The Bears blitzed off the edge all night, moving the generally immobile Stafford off his spot and forcing him to throw from adjusted platforms. But there’s no doubt that Stafford looks off.
0:17
Rams advance to NFC championship with walk-off FG in OT
Harrison Mevis makes a 42-yard field goal to give the Rams a 20-17 win vs. the Bears.
After a pristine first drive that looked like the promise of a classic Rams terminator game, he mislocated open throws to receivers in the flats, minimizing YAC and creating incompletions. Even his one-on-one shots fell uncatchable more often than they were even within contestable range. The aging veteran started the season questionable because of his back, and it looks like the season is really catching up to him. Most players are dealing with some degree of lingering pain and injury at this point in the season, but for a veteran quarterback with back concerns, the impact is magnified.
It’s tough to believe Stafford will suddenly rediscover his midseason form in a third matchup with a Seahawks defense that gave him a ton of trouble in the first matchup and enough trouble in the second. The Rams’ passing game has enough star power elsewhere (see: Nacua, Puka) that they don’t need Stafford to consistently play at an MVP level to have success, but the margins will be extremely thin against that Seahawks D — and would be thin again should they draw the Broncos or Patriots defenses in a Super Bowl. It’s hard to trust this Rams’ passing attack moving forward. — Solak
![]()
![]()
‘The Texans need to wait at least another year before extending C.J. Stroud.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. Stroud got it together in the second half Sunday, especially considering he was playing without top wide receiver Nico Collins, starting tight end Dalton Schultz got hurt and the Texans have no run game whatsoever. But he was catastrophically bad in the first half, throwing four interceptions and putting his team into a hole from which even its stifling defense could not extract it. This performance came six days after Stroud fumbled five times and turned the ball over three times in a wild-card-round victory over the Steelers that was closer in the fourth quarter than it should have been.
This season’s Texans, who rolled into Foxborough on a 10-game win streak and with a defense playing as well as any defense east of Seattle, had a golden opportunity. A win would have advanced them to their first AFC Championship Game next Sunday against a banged-up Broncos team that’s going to be playing without its starting quarterback. Sunday was a wet, snowy, sloppy game in which the Patriots had plenty of their own turnover problems and surely could have been beaten by a team that did a better job of holding on to the ball. But the Texans were not that team, and whatever legitimate excuses Stroud might have had available to him, he played horribly. You can make a strong case that he’s the reason Houston lost.
As the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft, Stroud is now eligible for a contract extension for the first time. To be clear: I have not heard one single indication that the Texans are planning to do anything other than extend Stroud as soon as they can. That’s almost certainly what will happen. But are we 100 percent sure it should?
Stroud’s rookie season was a revelation. And he has led the Texans to the second round of the playoffs in each of his three seasons so far. They believe they have a true franchise quarterback. But after throwing 26 touchdown passes and only five interceptions (counting playoffs) as a rookie, he has now thrown a combined 42 touchdowns and 26 interceptions (counting playoffs) in the two seasons since then. The Texans changed offensive coordinators after Stroud’s second season, in which he was sacked 52 times, and he did see improvement this season. But he still wasn’t up to his rookie-year standards, and this season will be remembered for his postseason meltdown.
I’m not saying Stroud is no good. He’s 24 years old. His rookie season might have set too high a standard for him to live up to in his second and third years. And he could recover from Sunday and have a Hall of Fame career. All I’m saying is, there’s no reason to hurry here. Stroud is signed through 2026, and the Texans have a team option for 2027 that’s a no-brainer to pick up. They could theoretically franchise-tag him in 2028 and 2029 if needed. Why not give it another year and see how he recovers from this and what improvements he makes to get back to playing the way he did as a rookie?
Teams rush into these deals far too often (hello, Dolphins!) and end up regretting them. I’m just not understanding the need to rush a Stroud extension after what we saw Sunday (and last Monday) and while Houston still has at least four more years of team control. — Graziano
The lingering question: Are we properly rating this Patriots defense after two dominant playoff performances?
A quick look at the stats: Against the Texans, the Patriors had 3.3 yards per play allowed and five takeaways. They pressured Stroud on 36% of his dropbacks, and he was 2-for-14 on those plays. Texans running backs had 18 carries for 31 yards — this, one week after the Chargers’ backs had 12 carries for 30 yards in the wild-card round. The Patriots have given up one touchdown across two playoff games, and it was a 27-yard drive off a Drake Maye turnover.
The Patriots’ defense has experienced a revitalization over the postseason in large part because of the players who have returned from injury: Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga, Robert Spillane and Harold Landry III all sat out time at the end of the regular season, and the run defense in particular has hugely benefited from the return to health in the front seven. But the Patriots have also played two remarkably below-average offensive lines, especially for playoff contenders. The Chargers’ interior has been an issue all season, and the Texans’ offensive line had barely scraped together passable play in the second half of the season before injuries caught up to them in this Patriots game.
0:42
C.J. Stroud throws his 4th INT of the game
Carlton Davis III picks off C.J. Stroud again as the Patriots come away with their fourth interception of the first half vs. the Texans.
I have no doubt that the Patriots’ defense is a strong unit and has benefitted from more health, but I am also certain that they’ve drawn a particularly soft schedule of opposing offensive trenches, which has allowed them to dictate game state easily. The truth of the Patriots’ defense is somewhere in the middle, but it’s hard to tell exactly where. This isn’t particularly meaningful for next week, as the Patriots draw a much better offensive line in the Broncos … but New England will also see a backup quarterback in Jarrett Stidham following the injury to Bo Nix. The Patriots’ defense should have a huge advantage in that game based on quarterback play alone.
But as we potentially enter a Super Bowl run for the Patriots, we’ll be faced with a tough challenge: riddling out exactly how good this defense is playing relative to the offenses it has faced. And that also goes for the regular season. Much has been made of the Patriots’ easy schedule for weeks now. Again, I’m certain this is a good unit. But how good? Good enough to beat the Seahawks if the offense has a terrible day against the uproarious Seattle defense? Good enough to stop the high-flying offense of the Bears or Rams? Even as we wrap up Week 20, it’s a unit I’m not sure I fully appreciate, which makes estimating exactly how dominant this Patriots team is somewhat tricky. — Solak
![]()
![]()
‘The Seahawks had the best offseason of any team.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. The Seahawks went into the 2025 offseason intent on and expecting to sign Geno Smith to a contract extension. When it became apparent to them that Smith wasn’t interested in extending his deal at their numbers, they traded him to the Raiders and signed Sam Darnold. Say what you will about Darnold, but the 2025 Seahawks went 14-3 — same record as Darnold’s 2024 Vikings — and now he has a home game Jan. 25 in the NFC Championship Game.
Seahawks GM John Schneider went about his offseason the same way he would have had he landed his first choice at quarterback. He signed DeMarcus Lawrence. He signed Cooper Kupp because he’s a better blocker at this point than Tyler Lockett. He drafted Nick Emmanwori in the second round. Schneider freaking loves the second round. Even as someone who likes to see players get as much money as they can and wishes the top QBs would push harder to move the market upward for others, I still have to appreciate a philosophy like Seattle’s approach: “Do we have to pay our quarterback $50-plus million per year if he still hasn’t shown he’s that guy?”
A Seahawks employee told me after the team’s wild Week 16 victory over the Rams, “We’re trying to win championships here,” and the Seahawks obviously are living that. Seattle has lost three games all season, and the margins were four, three and two points. Two of those losses were to division rivals, one of which they eliminated Saturday. Is Darnold the second coming of Joe Montana? No. Of John Elway? No. Of Patrick Mahomes? No. But the Seahawks decided, at some point, that they intend to be the example of how to win a championship without paying great quarterback money to a pretty good quarterback because there’s a championship-caliber roster around him.
Kudos to the Seahawks for treating the QB portion of their offseason the way they would have treated any other portion of it. They didn’t get the player they wanted, but they knew they could still win with this quarterback because of everything else they do well. Hiring Mike Macdonald as head coach was a last offseason move, not a this offseason move, but it was still one that impacted their approach to this offseason. And here they still are. — Graziano
The lingering question: Will the 49ers be NFC favorites with a healthy team next season?
It’s too early to say, of course. But spin it forward for me. The Seahawks will likely be the favorite, barring some catastrophic injury between now and then. The Rams could be up there, as well, especially if they finish the NFC playoffs strong … but Matthew Stafford‘s career longevity is always going to be a question that hurts them in the futures markets. Meanwhile, the 49ers still have most of their main players under contract.
Trent Williams‘ contract is expiring, and the offensive line clearly needs help across the board. Wide receiver is a little thin with the Brandon Aiyuk situation unclear and Jauan Jennings approaching free agency. But that young defense, which was hammered by injuries this season, will return Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. And Yetur Gross-Matos and Jordan Elliott are the only two expiring contracts there. This group will benefit from postseason experience next season and will presumably add to the pass rush.
Of course, the 49ers will see if they get through the offseason without losing defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who was key to their surprising success despite all the injuries. Saleh has interviewed with the Titans and Ravens already and is a deservedly hot name on the head coaching circuit. If he gets a job, San Francisco will be forced back on the defensive coordinator carousel.
0:16
Seahawks pick off Brock Purdy in 3rd quarter
Brock Purdy tries to throw down the middle, but gets intercepted by the 49ers’ Ernest Jones IV.
It’s also worth noting that the 49ers, who had a very easy schedule entering this season, will play a third-place schedule next season despite their postseason appearance. With only a few moves in offseason housekeeping and a regression to the mean in injury luck, the Niners should be considered a deep NFC playoff team once again. — Solak
![]()
![]()
‘The Broncos are done without Bo Nix.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. The Broncos barely won Saturday’s game. Buffalo had to turn the ball over five times — including once in overtime — or else Nix might not have broken his ankle in the first place. And certainly, without Nix’s clutch play in the fourth quarter and overtime, Denver wouldn’t have won and advanced to a home AFC Championship Game.
But now? You want me to believe the Broncos are going to beat Houston or New England with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback? And even if they do, does anyone believe they can then win the Super Bowl? I’m sorry, Jarrett, but it just doesn’t feel to me like this Broncos team is good enough to pull a 2017 Eagles and win this thing without their starting quarterback.
The Broncos have a good defense, yes. We know this about them. But they weren’t super awesome Saturday against a Bills team that moved the ball extremely well between turnovers, and they haven’t been elite in the way that defenses such as Seattle and Houston have been — at least not over the second half of this season. The Broncos do run the ball better than most think, but c’mon. We all watched this game. The Bills handed the Broncos 10 points at the tail end of the first half, then three more at the start of the second, and Buffalo still had a fourth-quarter lead that Nix found a way to overcome. Nix isn’t a perfect player, but what he can do with his legs and what he can do in the clutch are separating factors that Stidham just doesn’t offer.
The Broncos defense is going to have to play the game of a lifetime next week — even if it’s against Houston’s inconsistent offense — if it wants to lug this team into the Super Bowl. And even if it collects a bunch of turnovers and sneaks into the big game, Denver is then going to have to beat a team that has had two weeks off and likely still has its starting quarterback.
It’s a shame. It would have been fun to see what Sean Payton and this Broncos team could have done. Payton could have been the first coach to win the Super Bowl with two different teams. But in the wake of the Nix injury news, all of that is a lot harder to imagine. — Graziano
The lingering question: Why do the Bills keep losing in the postseason?
I have no idea. What is there to say? The Bills turned the football over five times, and no team that turns the ball over five times deserves to be in the game at all. Josh Allen‘s end-of-half fumble to let the Broncos go up 20-10 was an inexcusable mistake. He was stripped to start the second half to give Denver an even bigger lead. He threw a pick immediately off a key defensive takeaway.
It felt like Allen was digging the hole, and then as always, Allen was the one to pull the Bills back out. But there were too many misses. Allen failed to connect with Khalil Shakir on a third-and-8 screen in the red zone that could have allowed him to score, and he missed an open Dawson Knox at the end of regulation on a throw that could have walked the game off. Allen was simultaneously one of the biggest reasons the Bills were still in that game, while also being one of the biggest reasons they fell short.
The Bills have now made it to seven consecutive postseasons with Allen at the helm, which means they’ve suffered seven postseason losses. There’s really no unifying factor on the field, though. Wide receiver talent was a big deal in this game; Allen was 0-for-9 throwing 20-plus yards downfield, and downfield production is often a receiver stat. The pass rush has been an issue and was again in this game; Nix was pressured on 20% of his dropbacks, and the Bills needed to send blitzes to get home. Defensive back depth was also a big deal; two of Nix’s three touchdowns came targeting backup defensive backs.
0:19
Wil Lutz sends Broncos to AFC Championship Game on winning FG in OT
Wil Lutz nails the game-winning field goal in overtime to send the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game.
Still, when you’ve lost seven playoff games, there are some obvious unifying factors — coach Sean McDermott, GM Brandon Beane and Allen. The Bills’ triumvirate has been in place for the better part of a decade and has yet to get over the hump. Whether fair or unfair, the buck stops at the top, and the fact that the Bills have failed to make a Super Bowl in Allen’s tenure despite seven postseason appearances is an enormous failure.
If the Bills make changes, I’d totally get it. If they don’t, I’d totally get it, too. They’ve been so close so many times. What a devastating loss. — Solak
Sports
Texans’ Azeez Al-Shaair talks fine for pro-Palestinian message on eye tape: ‘It’s bigger than me’
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
Houston Texans pass rusher Azeez Al-Shaair spoke out about the fine he received for wearing a pro-Palestinian message across his eye tape during a playoff win against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Al-Shaair talked to reporters outside his locker in the wake of the Texans’ loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday. He was hit with a fine of $11,593 for having “Stop the genocide” emblazoned across the tape, according to ESPN.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COM
Azeez Al-Shaair of the Houston Texans during the national anthem before the wild-card playoff game against the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Jan. 12, 2026, in Pittsburgh. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
He told the media he was aware what he did would garner a fine.
“I knew that that was a fine. I understood what I was doing … I was told that if I wore that in the game, I would be pulled out the game,” he said, via ESPN. “I think that was the part that I was confused about because I understood that was a fine but I never seen Stef (Stefon Diggs) get pulled out of a game for having eye tape with writing on it.
“At the end of the day, it’s bigger than me, the things that are going on. If it makes people uncomfortable, imagine how those people feel. I think that’s the biggest thing. I have no affiliation, no connection to these people other than the fact that I’m a human being. If you have a heart and you’re a human being and you see what’s going on in the world, you check yourself real quick. Even when I’m walking off this field, that’s the type of stuff that goes on in my head. I check myself when I’m sitting here crying about football when there’s people who are dying every single day.”
The NFL rulebook states in Rule 5, Section 4, Article 8 what players are allowed and not allowed to wear on game days. The rule states, “Throughout the period on game-day that a player is visible to the stadium and television audience (including in pregame warm-ups, in the bench area, and during postgame interviews in the locker room or on the field), players are prohibited from wearing, displaying, or otherwise conveying personal messages either in writing or illustration, unless such message has been approved in advance by the League office.

Azeez Al-Shaair of the Houston Texans exits the field during the playoff game against the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Jan. 12, 2026, in Pittsburgh. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
“The League will not grant permission for any club or player to wear, display, or otherwise convey messages, through helmet decals, arm bands, jersey patches, mouthpieces, or other items affixed to game uniforms or equipment, which relate to political activities or causes, other non-football events, causes or campaigns, or charitable causes or campaigns. Further, any such approved items must be modest in size, tasteful, non-commercial, and non-controversial; must not be worn for more than one football season.”
Al-Shaair has supported Palestinians in the past, including wearing “Free Palestine” cleats for the NFL’s “My Cause My Cleats” campaign during the 2024 season.
Al-Shaair had “Free” written on one side of his shoes in the colors of the Palestinian flag. On one shoe, “Surely to Allah we belong and to Him we will all return,” was written. On the side of his other shoe, he included the number of Palestinians reportedly killed and wounded in their war with Israel.
The shoes were for the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund, which he also supported in 2023.
“I feel like it’s something that’s trying to be almost silenced,” Al-Shaair told the Houston Chronicle at the time. “On either side, people losing their life is not right. In no way, shape, or form am I validating anything that happened, but to consistently say that because of [Oct. 7] innocent people [in Gaza] should now die, it’s crazy.

Azeez al-Shaair of the Houston Texans shakes hands with Aaron Rodgers of the Steelers after their playoff game at Acrisure Stadium on Jan. 12, 2026, in Pittsburgh. (Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
“[Other people] try to make a disconnect and dehumanize people over there. And it’s like, they’re human beings. Being a Muslim, we see everybody the same; Black, White, Spanish, whatever you are; you can be orange, like, we’re all human beings.”
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Al-Shaair was also part of the Athletes for Ceasefire organization.
Fox News’ Ryan Morik contributed to this report.
Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
-
Tech7 days agoNew Proposed Legislation Would Let Self-Driving Cars Operate in New York State
-
Sports1 week agoClock is ticking for Frank at Spurs, with dwindling evidence he deserves extra time
-
Entertainment6 days agoX (formerly Twitter) recovers after brief global outage affects thousands
-
Fashion1 week agoSouth India cotton yarn gains but market unease over US tariff fears
-
Fashion1 week agoChina’s central bank conducts $157-bn outright reverse repo operation
-
Sports1 week agoUS figure skating power couple makes history with record breaking seventh national championship
-
Sports4 days agoPak-Australia T20 series tickets sale to begin tomorrow – SUCH TV
-
Entertainment1 week agoFive killed in road accident in Khyber
