CY26 buying, macros propel PSX further higher | The Express Tribune

Pakistan’s equity market opened the new year on a strong footing as the benchmark KSE-100 index extended its bullish momentum in the second week, climbing 5,375 points, or 3% week-on-week (WoW), to close at 184,410.

The rally was triggered by renewed buying in heavyweight stocks amid improved market participation, supportive macroeconomic indicators, and positive company-specific developments, while easing yields in the latest T-bill auction and robust remittances further strengthened investor sentiment. On a day-on-day basis, the bullish momentum at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued unabated on Monday as the KSE-100 index surged past 182k, closing at 182,408, up 3,373 points (+1.88%).

On Tuesday too, the market’s surge continued, when the index gained 2,654 points (+1.45%) to close at 185,602. The powerful and sustained bullish trend remained intact on Wednesday as well, with the bourse maintaining its full strength and closing at a fresh all-time high of 186,518. In the initial five sessions of CY26, the index added a massive 12,464 points (+7.2%).

However, following the sharp rally, the PSX witnessed its first profit-taking session on Thursday, where the index closed at 185,543, down 976 points (-0.52%). On Friday, the PSX took a breather and the KSE-100 remained volatile, swinging in both directions before closing at 184,410, down 1,133 points (-0.61%). Despite the decline, the CY26-to-date gains stood strong at 5.95%, equivalent to a rise of 10,356 points.

Arif Habib Limited’s (AHL) weekly report noted that the KSE-100 index climbed from 179,035 points last week to 184,410 in the outgoing week, gaining 5,375 points (+3%), supported by a rally in heavyweight stocks driven by new year buying, and positive company-specific news and updates.

Among economic developments, the government through a T-bill auction raised Rs979.3 billion against the target of Rs850 billion. Yields were down across all tenors by 28.6 to 33.8 basis points. Participation remained strong at Rs2,554.6 billion.

Worker remittances reached $3.6 billion in Dec’25, marking a 17% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Cumulatively, 1HFY26 remittances clocked in at $19.7 billion, up 11% YoY.

AHL mentioned that tariff rebasing, following shift from financial year to calendar year, was likely to pull the power purchase price down by Rs0.51 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in CY26 versus FY26. Cotton arrivals in factories remained stable as of end-Dec’25. In Punjab, cotton arrivals declined 4% in CY25, while Sindh arrivals improved by 4% YoY. However, total production are estimated at 6.8 million bales in FY26, representing a significant 33% shortfall against projections.

Meanwhile, the central government debt stood at Rs77.5 trillion as of Nov’25 compared with Rs70.4 trillion in Nov’24, up 10.2% YoY and 0.7% month-on-month, AHL added.

JS Global’s Syed Danyal Hussain, in his report, said that the benchmark KSE-100 index extended its bullish run in the second week of the year, closing at 184,410, up 3% WoW. The rally was largely led by banks, which contributed 57% to index gains, while cement stocks (8%) and auto shares (5%) provided limited support. Market participation improved notably, with average daily traded volumes rising 25% WoW.

On the macro front, he said, Pakistan recorded monthly remittances of $3.6 billion in Dec’25, reflecting a 17% YoY increase. Meanwhile, total public debt declined by Rs345 billion to Rs77.5 trillion in 5MFY26, largely supported by the transfer of State Bank’s profits to the government.

In policy developments, the government was exploring options to seek relaxations from the IMF ahead of the FY27 budget, with key proposals including a phased reduction in super tax over the next four years and lower power tariffs to enhance competitiveness.

Separately, the gas-sector circular debt climbed to Rs3.2 trillion, driven mainly by a sharp rise in late payment surcharges (Rs1.45 trillion). In the T-bill auction, the government raised Rs979 billion against the target of Rs850 billion, with yields falling by 29-33 basis points across different tenors. SBP’s reserves rose $141 million to $16 billion.