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Even as global trade faced fresh shocks and the US imposed steep tariffs, India’s export engine showed resilience in 2025, as reported by PTI. A sharp 50 per cent US duty on Indian goods did dent shipments briefly, but exporters adjusted by diversifying markets. With momentum holding up despite global headwinds, India’s export outlook for 2026 remains positive.

A senior commerce ministry official summed it up simply: trade behaves like water, it finds its way, PTI reported. That adaptability has defined India’s export journey through multiple disruptions, from the Covid-19 pandemic to geopolitical conflicts and supply-chain crises.

Exports Weather A Decade of Global Shocks

India’s merchandise exports have navigated a tough global environment over the past five years, according to PTI data. Outbound shipments rose from USD 276.5 billion in 2020 to USD 395.5 billion in 2021 and USD 453.3 billion in 2022. Exports dipped to USD 389.5 billion in 2023 amid a global slowdown, but rebounded to USD 443 billion in 2024.

In 2025, exports touched USD 407 billion during January–November, reflecting steady demand despite trade disruptions and tariff pressures, PTI reported.

Record High in Goods and Services Exports

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India’s combined exports of goods and services reached a historic USD 825.25 billion in 2024–25, registering over 6 per cent year-on-year growth, as reported by PTI.

The momentum has continued into the current financial year, with exports touching USD 562 billion during April–November 2025. “Based on current trends, India’s exports are well placed to post solid growth in 2026,” Agrawal said, adding that upcoming free trade agreements with the UK, Oman and New Zealand will open new opportunities for exporters, PTI reported.

US Tariffs Bite, But Recovery Follows

The US, India’s largest export destination, imposed higher tariffs from August 2025, which impacted shipments in September and October, according to PTI. However, exports to the US rebounded sharply in November, rising 22.61 per cent to USD 6.98 billion, signalling exporters’ ability to adjust pricing and supply chains, PTI reported.

Exporters, however, remain cautious, with hopes pinned on an early bilateral trade agreement with the US and progress on a trade deal with the European Union.

Global Trade Outlook Turns Cautious

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the World Trade Organization has projected global trade growth of 2.4 per cent in 2025, while lowering the outlook for 2026 to 0.5 per cent, as cited in PTI reports.

The WTO warned that higher tariffs, policy uncertainty and slowing GDP growth in developed economies could weaken trade and manufacturing activity.

Government Steps In to Support Exporters

The government remains optimistic that policy support will help exporters manage uncertainty, PTI reported. Measures include a Rs 25,060 crore export promotion mission, additional collateral-free credit of up to Rs 20,000 crore, debt repayment moratoriums, longer export credit tenors and greater use of free trade agreements.

India has signed or implemented several FTAs in recent years — including with Mauritius, Australia, the UAE, EFTA, Oman, the UK and New Zealand — strengthening market access for Indian goods and services, according to PTI.

Diversification Drives the 2026 Outlook

Experts told PTI that India’s export prospects for 2026 are being driven by structural shifts rather than a short-term global recovery. Electronics have emerged as a key growth driver, supported by foreign investment and deeper integration into global value chains. Engineering goods, pharmaceuticals and automobiles continue to add strength.

Exports are also becoming more geographically spread, moving beyond traditional markets like the US and UAE to Europe, East Asia and South Asia, PTI reported.

Challenges Remain, But Outlook Stays Positive

Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, told PTI that global supply-chain realignments, expanding trade partnerships and improvements in ease of doing business put Indian exporters in a strong position.

However, he cautioned that geopolitical risks, slower growth in developed markets, rising protectionism, currency volatility and higher logistics costs could pressure margins, especially for MSMEs.

Even so, with continued policy support and market diversification, India’s export sector is expected to stay resilient and maintain growth momentum through 2026, as reported by PTI.