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Economic growth in Philippines expected to slow to 5.1% in 2025: IMF
The country’s growth rose to 5.7 per cent in 2024 on strong public consumption and investment but moderated to 5.4 per cent in the first half of 2025 amid strong imports and an election-related public spending ban.
Potential growth is estimated to be around 6 per cent over the medium term, the IMF said after concluding its 2025 Article IV consultation with the country recently.
Growth in the Philippines is expected to slow to 5.1 per cent this year as increasing tariffs weigh on exports and investment, before picking up moderately to 5.6 per cent in 2026, according to the IMF.
Potential growth is estimated to be around 6 per cent over the medium term.
Inflation is projected to average 1.7 per cent in 2025, and then pick up to 2.8 per cent in 2026 as negative base effects recede.
Inflation declined amid a restrictive monetary policy stance and concerted efforts by the government to reduce food prices. Inflation is projected to average 1.7 per cent in 2025, and then pick up to 2.8 per cent in 2026 as negative base effects recede, the IMF said.
Headline and core inflation averaged 1.7 and 2.4 per cent year on year (YoY) respectively in 2025 as of October.
Gradual fiscal consolidation over the medium term will help reinforce fiscal space. Accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms would support investor confidence and raise fiscal multipliers and potential growth, the IMF noted.
The risks to the near-term growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The main external risks stem from prolonged global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and disruptive financial market corrections. On the domestic front, more frequent and intense climate shocks would cause notable macroeconomic losses.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)