Sports
First bets for Week 7: Buccaneers’ luck runs out vs. Lions, Giants cover in Denver
Week 7 gets underway with a matchup of AFC North rivals, as the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals on “Thursday Night Football.”
Sunday’s slate begins with the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars meeting at Wembley Stadium in London, and the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Los Angeles Chargers highlights the late afternoon window of games.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions get together in a battle of offensive juggernauts to kick off a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader, and the night wraps up with the Houston Texans visiting the Seattle Seahawks.
Eric Karabell, Pamela Maldonado, Matt Bowen, Eric Moody, Joe Fortenbaugh and Seth Walder looked at the early Week 7 odds and identified which ones are worth jumping on now before potential shifts later in the week.
Note: Odds at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook
Miami Dolphins–Cleveland Browns total points UNDER 40.5 (-115)
Bowen: Cleveland is averaging only 13.7 PPG this season, the second fewest in the league. And when you watch the Browns on tape, with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, they aren’t built to create explosive plays at a high rate. This feels like a game (based on the matchup) where rookie running back Quinshon Judkins is featured. Control tempo while leaning on your defense to limit Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami pass game. The game is in Cleveland, too. Take the under.
Last week: Buccaneers -2.5 vs. 49ers (Buccaneers won, 30-19)
Detroit Lions to cover -4.5 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fortenbaugh: This luckbox Buccaneers run is coming to a screeching halt at some point in the near future, so we might as well lean into the projected regression with a Lions team playing at home off a loss. Tampa Bay is now 5-1 on the season with a point differential of +14. To put that into perspective, the Seahawks are 4-2 with a point differential of +49 and the Texans are 2-3 with a point differential of +47. Throw in the myriad injuries to the Tampa receiving unit and you’ve got Detroit covering the 4.5 and restoring order to the NFC.
Last week: Steelers -4.5 vs. Browns (Steelers won, 23-9)
Cincinnati Bengals to cover +5.5 (-105) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Karabell: Let’s stop a bit short of expecting Joe Flacco and the Bengals to win the game, but it is a home game against a heated rival on a short week, and the addition of Flacco does change things. It’s not like Pittsburgh’s QB is some young fellow. Flacco should keep this game close in the fourth quarter, at the least. I would not take the Steelers in pools. This is a field goal game at the end.
Last week: Ravens-Rams over 45.5 (Rams won, 17-3)
New York Giants to cover +7 (Even) at Denver Broncos
Maldonado: The Giants are quietly figuring it out with Jaxson Dart. You can feel the shift. They finally have an identity. Run the ball, control the clock, make the other team uncomfortable. Dart isn’t putting up video game numbers, but he’s doing exactly what this offense needs: extending plays. The defense is starting to look nasty too, especially up front with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux collapsing pockets. It’s not flashy, but it’s effective. Going into Denver, this feels like another one of those ugly, grind-it-out games. The Giants are now built for that.
Last week: Eagles-Giants under 42 (Giants won, 34-17)
Carolina Panthers to cover -1.5 (+105) at New York Jets
Moody: The Panthers have won two straight and scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games. Rico Dowdle erupted for 234 total yards two weeks ago and piled on 239 more in a Week 6 win over Dallas, and Carolina’s defense shut down Javonte Williams and Cowboys’ running game. The Jets, meanwhile, managed just 82 total yards against the Broncos in London, the third-lowest single-game total in franchise history. With momentum on their side and New York reeling, this is a great spot to back Carolina. The Panthers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
Last week: 49ers +2.5 at Buccaneers (Buccaneers won, 30-19)
Baltimore Ravens to MISS the playoffs (Even)
Walder: I’ll be the first one to say throw out any historical stats about how often 1-5 teams make the playoffs when it comes to the 2025 Ravens. Most 1-5 teams are simply bad, and despite whatever we have seen from Baltimore thus far, I don’t think anyone expects that this is a bad team going forward. And almost none of those teams have a perennial MVP candidate like Lamar Jackson, either. And rarely have those teams faced the hardest schedule in the NFL (as the Ravens have) and will face the 27th-hardest schedule going forward (as the Ravens will). It’s because all of that that I was perfectly prepared to argue for Baltimore’s chances to make the playoffs — and then I saw the odds. The 1-5 Ravens are even money to miss the playoffs? They certainly could come back, but 50/50? That surprised me, and it certainly would shock FPI. The model, which assumes Jackson returns after the team’s Week 7 bye, gives the Ravens only a 25% chance to make the playoffs. The Ravens will need a lot to go their way to play playoff football again.
Last week: Steelers -4.5 vs. Browns (Steelers won, 23-9)
The receiver has been plagued by injuries, but Sunday night against the Broncos, he gave Washington something to talk about other than a seventh straight loss.
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The good (Treylon Burks’s incredible catch) and bad (Washington’s record in prime time) from the Commanders’ seventh-straight loss.
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NEED CHANGE: Pakistan won a record 21 T20Is this year under Salman Ali Agha’s captaincy. Photo: AFP/File
KARACHI:
“Alright, you tell me — who should be made captain in T20s?” asked a person connected to Pakistan cricket during a friendly discussion with me.
Without hesitation, I replied, “Shaheen Shah Afridi.”
He responded, “The World Cup is so close now. If a change is made at this stage and, God forbid, the team doesn’t perform well, then you people will say ‘bring a new captain.’ That’s not a solution. Constant changes cause more harm than good.”
Hearing this, I said, “Salman Ali Agha is a nice, decent guy — that’s why he suits the board. That’s why he was given the captaincy. You can’t make Shaheen take ‘favorable decisions.’”
Smiling, he said, “You’re right that Salman is a straightforward person. He doesn’t get involved in groupings and listens to the board. But remember, he became captain based on his cricketing skills — these are just additional qualities. Shaheen is also a good guy; if the PCB tells him something, do you think he would refuse? Actually, Salman has been given the role with the future in mind. Shaheen is already the ODI captain; if the officials didn’t like him, why would they give him that responsibility either? I know you won’t be convinced, but I’m telling you the truth.”
I replied, “I know what’s going on in your minds. Salman’s own performance isn’t great; he’s been made captain because it’ll be easier to replace him later. Shadab Khan is fit again, and Mike Hesson wants to make him captain — they’ve worked together for years at Islamabad United.”
To this, I got the response, “Those are social media-type theories. It doesn’t suit you to repeat them. Tell me one thing — is Hesson’s job guaranteed unless the team wins? Why would he prioritize personal preferences? Yes, he’s friendly with Shadab, but it’s not that simple to make him captain directly upon return from injury. Remember, when Shadab was fit, he still played as vice-captain under Salman. They have good chemistry. Such a setup could continue when he returns. Anyway, we’ll talk later — okay, bye.”
After all this, it seems to me that Salman Ali Agha will be the captain for the World Cup. But with Pakistan cricket, nothing is ever certain — anything can happen. Until an official announcement is made, uncertainty will remain. Salman has performed well in Tests and ODIs, but his T20 performance hasn’t been extraordinary, which is why his place in the team is often questioned. However, in the recent triangular series, he seemed determined and even played a good innings against Sri Lanka.
A former great captain once told me something very insightful: “First select your best eleven players — then pick a captain from among them. If you bring in someone from outside that eleven, it means you’re compromising for other reasons.”
Our cricket “superstars” have also betrayed one another. Some former players broke relationships just to break “players’ power.” There was a time when even thinking about removing a captain was forbidden; later, the same friends started hiding things from each other to gain the captaincy.
It’s true that there’s no “players’ power” anymore, but if we compare the teams of that era with today’s, there’s a big difference. Babar Azam, once feared by bowlers, now lacks co confidence and consistency. When the team is chasing a big total in T20s, he seems visibly tense. If he hadn’t been entangled in the captaincy issue, would it have been the same?
Shaheen, on the other hand, will probably always feel that the very friends for whom he was ready to stand up to the board were the ones who “betrayed” him. The British introduced the policy of “divide and rule,” and it’s still being used in every field today.
Looking at all this, it seems that Salman Ali Agha is currently the best candidate for captaincy. He hasn’t been part of any group, his own place in the team isn’t always secure — so he’s likely to remain under the board’s control. The good thing is that under his captaincy, the team has started producing positive results recently, both in events and bilateral series.
The real question, however, is whether he can perform well in a high-pressure tournament like the World Cup. Maybe that’s what’s going through the officials’ minds — which is why there’s still no announcement. But time is running out; a decision will have to be made soon.
Let’s see what happens.
By the way, what do you think — should Salman remain captain, or should the responsibility go to Shadab or Shaheen instead? Don’t forget to share your opinion.
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