Fitch put Pakistan’s debt ratings under review | The Express Tribune

Fitch Ratings has placed the long-term debt ratings of 25 sovereigns, including Pakistan, Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following an overhaul of its sovereign rating methodology.

The action, announced late Friday, covers 435 long-term sovereign debt instruments and follows the release of Fitch’s updated Sovereign Rating Criteria on September 15, 2025. Although the UCO designation does not represent an immediate change in the ratings, it signals that they may shift once Fitch completes its reassessment under the revised framework within the next six months.

The update introduces loss severity considerations into the assessment of long-term sovereign debt, meaning creditors’ recovery prospects in the event of a default will now play a direct role in determining ratings. Sovereigns with long-term issuer default ratings (IDRs) of B+ or below could see their debt ratings adjusted upward, downward, or equalised depending on expected recovery outcomes. According to Fitch, the recovery rate estimates will be linked to the assignment of Recovery Ratings, making the methodology more consistent with how corporate and structured finance credits are evaluated.

Analysts in Pakistan view the move as technical rather than immediately consequential. Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia, Research Head at JS Global, said Fitch’s criteria change was primarily about recalibrating recovery expectations. “They have made some changes to the recovery expectations and loss severity, based on which they will now issue these ratings. They have changed some rules in estimating loss severity – whether recovery prospects are below average or above average. That’s about it. It is a technical update and apparently has no immediate impact,” he explained.

Even so, the update could have meaningful implications for sovereigns already under financial strain. Fitch noted that long-term debt instruments could be notched up if recovery expectations are “above average”, better, or notched down if expectations are “below average” or worse. Those deemed “average” will be equalised with the issuer’s IDR. While the criteria technically apply across the rating scale, the most visible effects are expected among lower-rated sovereigns – typically frontier and emerging market economies grappling with weak external finances, heavy debt burdens, or limited access to global capital markets.

Countries affected by the UCO placement include Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Ukraine, among others. Pakistan’s global sukuk programme has also been specifically flagged as under review. Fitch emphasised that the UCO action does not indicate any deterioration in these countries’ fundamental credit profiles, nor does it alter their current outlooks or rating watches. Pakistan’s sovereign rating was last affirmed at CCC+ earlier this year, reflecting a fragile external liquidity position despite ongoing reforms under the International Monetary Fund programme.

Fitch plans to complete its reassessment within six months, after which the UCO designation will be resolved. Ratings may remain unchanged, be upgraded, or downgraded depending on the final recovery assessments. Market analysts suggest that while investors may not react sharply in the short term, the eventual resolution could influence sentiment toward countries with high debt rollover needs and constrained fiscal positions.

By introducing loss severity into sovereign ratings, Fitch is bringing its approach closer to that already applied in corporate and structured finance sectors, where recovery assumptions are standard practice. Although the methodology update may not carry immediate market consequences, some countries with lower ratings could face movement, either upward or downward, once Fitch applies its new framework in practice.