The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower borrowing costs this week, but deep divisions within the policy-making panel suggest further rate cuts will be harder to secure, analysts say.Policymakers are set to meet on December 9–10 amid a complicated economic backdrop, with inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target even as hiring weakens and unemployment rises. Economists expect Chair Jerome Powell to back a quarter-point cut — the third this year — though dissent is likely to be unusually high, AP reported.Some analysts believe as many as three officials could vote against the cut, marking the most dissenting votes in six years. Only 12 of the Fed’s 19 rate-setting committee members vote on decisions, and several non-voting officials have also expressed opposition to further easing.“It’s just a really tricky time. Perfectly sensible people can reach different answers,” William English, economist at Yale School of Management and former senior Fed staffer, said, highlighting the challenge of building consensus.The debate has been complicated by sparse official data following the prolonged US government shutdown, which delayed employment and inflation readings. Inflation pressures would normally argue against rate cuts, while signs of labour market weakness point in the opposite direction.Most economists now expect a “hawkish cut” — a rate reduction accompanied by guidance suggesting the Fed may pause to assess economic conditions. Financial markets are increasingly focused on the tone of Powell’s commentary rather than the cut itself.Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid is expected to dissent again in favour of holding rates steady, potentially joined by St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem. Fed governor Stephen Miran may oppose the quarter-point move and instead argue for a larger half-point reduction.Expectations of a December cut firmed after New York Fed president John Williams said the recent rise in inflation appeared to be a temporary effect linked to tariffs, and that he still saw “room for a further adjustment” in rates. Market-implied odds of a cut now stand at about 89%, according to CME Fedwatch.Powell’s leadership is also being tested politically, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised the Fed chair and signalled that a new chair will be appointed when Powell’s term ends in May.While concerns about unemployment — which rose to 4.4% in September — are driving support for a December cut, economists caution that additional easing will depend on upcoming data. The Fed will review a backlog of jobs and inflation reports before its next meeting in January, which could either justify further cuts or compel a pause.

Last Updated:December 09, 2025, 21:09 IST

Ipsos survey finds 51% of Indians expect better living standards by 2026, driven by strong GDP growth and a young population, says Ramalingam.

Ipsos Cost of Living Survey in its latest study has stated that Indians was the most optimistic population as most citizens believe an improvement of their standard of living in 2026.

According to an official statement, “Indians remain the most optimistic population globally when it comes to expectations of rising disposable incomes in 2026, outperforming all 30 markets surveyed. This sense of confidence is further reinforced by the fact that one in two citizens (51 percent) expect their standard of living to improve in the coming year.”

The study was based on interview of 23,772 adults aged 18 years and older in India, 18-74 in Canada, Republic of Ireland, Malaysia, South Africa, Türkiye, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries.

The study stated that the year 2025 had presented a difficult environment, characterized by a pronounced global economic slowdown, the ongoing geopolitical turbulence in Gaza and Ukraine, tightened and punitive trade policies implemented by the Trump administration, and recurring rounds of job cuts across industries.

“Despite these adverse conditions and the pressures they have placed on households and businesses, Indian citizens remain hopeful of achieving tangible salary increases and improved financial stability in 2026. This divergence between global pessimism and Indian optimism is a striking narrative emerging from the data,” it stated.

Ipsos India CEO Suresh Ramalingam said India’s economic trajectory plays a central role in shaping public sentiment.

“India continues to be one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world, recording GDP growth of more than 6.5 per cent and recently becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy. With its consistent performance and structural momentum, India is now firmly positioned on the path to becoming the third-largest economy by 2030,” he said.

He further stated that with a majority of the nation’s population under the age of 35, the youth demographic is playing a defining role, as more opportunities continue to open up in both traditional and emerging sectors of the job market.

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