Global cotton benchmarks mostly steady as supply outlook improves

Prices for the nearby May contract on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) traded within a narrow band of 64–66 cents per pound during the period. Meanwhile, the December ICE futures contract followed a gradual upward trend since early February, rising from below 68 cents per pound to above 70 cents recently.

Global cotton benchmarks remained mostly steady over the past month, with slight gains in key indices, according to Cotton Incorporated.
ICE May futures traded between 64–66 cents per pound, while the Cotlook A Index rose to 75 cents.
Higher global production forecasts and fluctuations in Chinese import demand continue to shape the outlook for cotton prices.

The global benchmark Cotlook A Index also edged higher from 73 to 75 cents per pound. In China, the China Cotton Index 3128B increased from 104 to 109 cents per pound, equivalent to a rise from 16,000 to 16,600 RMB per tonne.

In contrast, cotton prices in India slipped slightly from 76 to 74 cents per pound over the past month, while prices in Pakistan remained broadly stable near 68 cents per pound.

On the supply side, the latest outlook from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the forecast for global cotton production in the 2025-26 season by 1.1 million bales to 121 million bales, while world mill consumption was reduced marginally by 140,000 bales to 118.6 million bales. The revisions lifted projected global ending stocks by 1.3 million bales to 76.4 million as per Cotton Incorporated’s Monthly Economic Letter – Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook – March 2026.

The largest upward revisions to production were recorded in Brazil and China, while smaller adjustments were made for Argentina. Global cotton trade forecasts were also increased by 200,000 bales to 43.9 million bales.

Market analysts noted that shifts in Chinese import demand remain a major driver of global cotton price movements. Large swings in imports by China have historically influenced exportable supply and global prices, with past surges pushing ICE futures above 90 cents per pound.

Although China’s domestic production has improved significantly over the past decade, supported by higher yields and expanded cultivation, its import requirements are still expected to influence the market. The USDA’s preliminary forecast projects Chinese cotton imports at about 7 million bales in the 2026–27 season.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)