Global cotton production, stocks to fall; consumption to rise: WASDE

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected lower global cotton production and ending stocks, along with higher consumption, for the 2026–27 marketing year. The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report presents a bullish outlook, largely driven by tightening global cotton supplies.

As the May report marks the official debut of the 2026/27 forecast, all figures are being compared year-on-year (YoY) with the 2025/26 season. Such YoY comparison is standard for the May release, as it establishes the initial baseline for the new crop cycle before month-on-month tracking begins from June onwards.

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast lower global cotton production and ending stocks, alongside higher consumption for 2026/27, indicating tighter global supplies.
The WASDE report projects world output at 116 million bales and consumption at a six-year high of 121.7 million bales, supported by higher synthetic fibre costs and stronger cotton demand.

According to the first report for next marketing year 2026-27, world cotton production is forecasted to decline by 5 per cent to 116.0 million bales of 480 pounds or 220 kg each. This production drop is attributed to lower output in major exporting countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, Pakistan, and the US, which is more than offset gains in India and Argentina. Conversely, the global consumption forecast is raised to a six-year high of 121.7 million bales. This demand surge is driven by an oil supply shock that has increased the cost of synthetic fibres, making cotton more price-competitive for global textile manufacturers.

The tightening market is further reflected in global ending stocks, which are projected to fall by 5.4 million bales to 71.8 million bales due to production shortfalls in key regions. In the export market, Brazil is expected to lead with 15 million bales, followed by the US at 12.3 million bales.

Meanwhile US cotton production for 2026-27 is projected at 13.3 million bales, down 600,000 bales from the 2025-26 season, while US ending stocks are also expected to move lower to 3.9 million bales. Reflecting these tighter supplies, the season-average farm price is forecast to rise significantly to 73 cents per pound, up from the 61 cents per pound recorded in the previous marketing year.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)