Business
GST Reforms, Demand Revival To Push FY26 GDP Growth To 7.4%, Says NIPFP
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The NIPFP’s outlook positions India as one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY26, even amid global uncertainties.
The NIPFP projected retail inflation at 1.6 per cent in the current financial year, citing easing food inflation.
The Indian economy is likely to expand by 7.4 per cent in FY26, driven by the positive impact of goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation, a revival in domestic demand, and strong performance in the US economy, according to the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) in its latest mid-year economic review released on Tuesday.
The projection marks a significant upgrade from NIPFP’s April estimate of 6.6 per cent growth, and also surpasses the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest forecast of 6.8 per cent.
“Largely on the back of robust public sector investment, revival in domestic consumption demand in both rural and urban areas, goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation, and the external sector, especially the US performing to its potential, the economy is expected to clock this robust growth,” the review stated.
Alternate Growth Scenarios
The autonomous research institution, which functions under the finance ministry, presented two alternative scenarios based on the performance of the US economy.
If the US output stays 1 per cent above potential, India’s GDP could expand by 8.8 per cent in FY26. Conversely, if the US output remains 1 per cent below potential, India’s growth may slow to 6 per cent.
Inflation Outlook
The NIPFP projected retail inflation at 1.6 per cent in the current financial year, citing easing food inflation. However, it warned of rising core inflation, driven by higher prices of gold and silver, and persistently elevated edible oil inflation.
“Our inflation projection is quite lower than the 2.6 per cent estimated by the RBI. The inflation is expected to remain 1.1 per cent in Q3 and 0.8 per cent in Q4,” the review noted. It added that while buoyant domestic demand from GST rate restructuring poses an upside risk, moderating energy prices and Trump tariff-induced demand moderation could act as downside risks.
Trade Concerns and Diversification
On the external front, the NIPFP highlighted that most bilateral trade deals disproportionately benefit the United States, urging India to diversify its services exports to mitigate potential risks from widening US tariffs.
“Unlike some countries, India holds very little leverage in merchandise exports, which are concentrated in a few sectors. In the case of services, more than half of India’s exports are to the US, and they face real risk if the net of Trump tariffs widens. Hence, diversification is the key,” the review cautioned.
With strong fiscal support, GST-driven efficiency gains, and resilient domestic demand, the NIPFP’s outlook positions India as one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY26, even amid global uncertainties.

Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h…Read More
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h… Read More
November 12, 2025, 08:26 IST
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Business
Nike shares fall 9% on weak outlook, expected 20% sales decline in China
A Nike logo is displayed at a Nike store in Austin, Texas, Feb. 5, 2026.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Shares of Nike fell in extended trading Tuesday after the retailer warned sales will fall for the rest of the calendar year, led by an expected 20% decline in its key China market during the current quarter.
Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said during the company’s earnings call that Nike expects sales for its current fiscal fourth quarter to drop between 2% and 4%, compared with Wall Street estimates of a 1.9% increase, according to LSEG.
For the duration of the calendar year, Friend said, the company expects sales to fall by a low single-digit percentage, led by growth in North America and offset by declines in China. That outlook wasn’t comparable to estimates.
Nike beat expectations across the business on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter, but its guidance left investors with more questions about how long its turnaround will take. Friend also cautioned that Nike’s guidance was based off of where the global economic picture stands today — and it could change given recent geopolitical volatility.
“We also recognize that the environment around us has become increasingly dynamic, and we could experience unplanned volatility due to the disruption in the Middle East, rising oil prices and other factors that could impact either input costs or consumer behavior,” said Friend. “We are focused on what we can control.”
Shares fell more than 8% in extended trading.
Here’s how the world’s largest sneaker company did for its fiscal third quarter, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 35 cents vs. 28 cents expected
- Revenue: $11.28 billion vs. $11.24 billion expected
The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 28 was $520 million, or 35 cents per share. That’s a 35% decline from $794 million, or 54 cents per share, a year earlier. That plunge came as Nike’s gross profit margin slid 1.3 percentage points to 40.2%, “primarily due to higher tariffs in North America,” the company said.
Sales were flat at $11.28 billion, compared to $11.27 billion last year.
While Nike beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, it posted a mixed picture regionally. Nike’s largest market of North America continued to show steady growth, as revenue climbed 3% to $5.03 billion, but that was just shy of Wall Street’s expectations of $5.04 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Meanwhile, Nike’s Greater China market continued to shrink, with revenue down 7% to $1.62 billion during the quarter. Still, that total beat analyst estimates of $1.50 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Nike is continuing to work through a colossal turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill. About a year and a half into his tenure, Hill has made strides in repairing parts of the business, but has been clear that it’ll take time for the entire company to improve given the retailer’s scale and complexity.
He reiterated that expectation on Tuesday, saying in a news release that “the pace of progress is different across the portfolio.”
“The areas we prioritized first continue to drive momentum,” Hill said. “The work is not finished, but the direction is clear, our teams are moving with focus and urgency, and our foundation is getting even stronger to build the future of NIKE.”
Friend said Nike’s turnaround efforts “will continue to impact results over the balance of the calendar year.”
Nike’s recovery was already coming at a tough time as a global trade war dented its efforts to improve profitability and drive sales from inflation-weary shoppers. But now the athletic company will have to contend with a new war in the Middle East that’s already led to rising gas prices and is expected to send consumer prices even higher, which could push shoppers to cut back on nice-to-haves like new clothes and shoes to save money elsewhere.
“We continue to be encouraged by the momentum in North America. We’ve got a strong order book for summer,” Friend said. “We’re seeing positive signs and sell through. We’re not seeing a consumer reaction to what’s going on in the Middle East at this point in time, in North America.”
Hill has focused in part on revitalizing Nike’s business with wholesale partners as opposed to direct sales on its website and in stores. Wholesale revenue climbed 5% to $6.5 billion.
Meanwhile, direct sales slid 4% to $4.5 billion.
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