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GST Reforms, Demand Revival To Push FY26 GDP Growth To 7.4%, Says NIPFP

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GST Reforms, Demand Revival To Push FY26 GDP Growth To 7.4%, Says NIPFP


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The NIPFP’s outlook positions India as one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY26, even amid global uncertainties.

The NIPFP projected retail inflation at 1.6 per cent in the current financial year, citing easing food inflation.

The Indian economy is likely to expand by 7.4 per cent in FY26, driven by the positive impact of goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation, a revival in domestic demand, and strong performance in the US economy, according to the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) in its latest mid-year economic review released on Tuesday.

The projection marks a significant upgrade from NIPFP’s April estimate of 6.6 per cent growth, and also surpasses the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest forecast of 6.8 per cent.

“Largely on the back of robust public sector investment, revival in domestic consumption demand in both rural and urban areas, goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation, and the external sector, especially the US performing to its potential, the economy is expected to clock this robust growth,” the review stated.

Alternate Growth Scenarios

The autonomous research institution, which functions under the finance ministry, presented two alternative scenarios based on the performance of the US economy.

If the US output stays 1 per cent above potential, India’s GDP could expand by 8.8 per cent in FY26. Conversely, if the US output remains 1 per cent below potential, India’s growth may slow to 6 per cent.

Inflation Outlook

The NIPFP projected retail inflation at 1.6 per cent in the current financial year, citing easing food inflation. However, it warned of rising core inflation, driven by higher prices of gold and silver, and persistently elevated edible oil inflation.

“Our inflation projection is quite lower than the 2.6 per cent estimated by the RBI. The inflation is expected to remain 1.1 per cent in Q3 and 0.8 per cent in Q4,” the review noted. It added that while buoyant domestic demand from GST rate restructuring poses an upside risk, moderating energy prices and Trump tariff-induced demand moderation could act as downside risks.

Trade Concerns and Diversification

On the external front, the NIPFP highlighted that most bilateral trade deals disproportionately benefit the United States, urging India to diversify its services exports to mitigate potential risks from widening US tariffs.

“Unlike some countries, India holds very little leverage in merchandise exports, which are concentrated in a few sectors. In the case of services, more than half of India’s exports are to the US, and they face real risk if the net of Trump tariffs widens. Hence, diversification is the key,” the review cautioned.

With strong fiscal support, GST-driven efficiency gains, and resilient domestic demand, the NIPFP’s outlook positions India as one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY26, even amid global uncertainties.

Mohammad Haris

Mohammad Haris

Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h…Read More

Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h… Read More

Follow News18 on Google. Join the fun, play QIK games on News18. Stay updated with all the latest business news, including market trendsstock updatestax, IPO, banking finance, real estate, savings and investments. To Get in-depth analysis, expert opinions, and real-time updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated.
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Without Rera data, real estate reform risks losing credibility: Homebuyers’ body – The Times of India

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Without Rera data, real estate reform risks losing credibility: Homebuyers’ body – The Times of India


New Delhi: More than 75% of state real estate regulators, Reras, have either never published annual reports, discontinued their publication or not updated them despite statutory obligation and directions from the housing and urban affairs ministry, claimed homebuyers’ body FPCE on Friday. It released status report of 21 Reras as of Feb 13.The availability of updated annual reports is crucial as these contain details of data on performance of Reras, including project completion status categorised by timely completion, completion with extensions, and incomplete projects. The ministry’s format for publishing these reports also specifies providing details such as actual execution status of refund, possession and compensation orders as well as recovery warrant execution details with values and list of defaulting builders.FPCE said annual report data is not only vital for homebuyers to assess system credibility, but is equally necessary for both state and central govts to frame effective policies, design incentivisation schemes, and develop tax policy frameworks.“Unless we have credible data proving that after Rera the real estate sector has improved in terms of delivery, fairness, and keeping its promises, we are merely firing in the air,” said FPCE president Abhay Upadhyay, who is also a member of the govt’s Central Advisory Council on Rera.As per details shared by the entity, seven states — Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Goa — have never published a single annual report since Rera’s implementation, and nine states, including Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Telangana, which initially published reports, have discontinued the practice.Upadhyay said when regulators themselves don’t follow the law, they lose the legal right to demand compliance from other stakeholders. “Their failure emboldens builders and weakens the very system they are meant to safeguard,” he said.



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Infosys Rolls Out 85% Average Performance Bonus In Q3FY26, Best In Over 3 Years

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Infosys Rolls Out 85% Average Performance Bonus In Q3FY26, Best In Over 3 Years


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Over recent quarters, payouts had gradually improved from roughly 65 percent to 80 percent and now to an average of about 85 percent in Q3FY26.

Infosys logo is seen.

Infosys logo is seen.

IT major Infosys rolled out performance bonus payouts averaging around 85 percent for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 (Q3FY26), marking the strongest variable pay outcome for eligible employees in at least the past three-and-a-half years, Moneycontrol reported citing people in the know.

The bonus payout for mid- to junior-level employees ranges between 75 percent and 100 percent, with most employees clustering around the organisation-wide average of 85 percent, the report said. The development signals a steady recovery in variable compensation at the Bengaluru-headquartered IT services firm. Over recent quarters, payouts had gradually improved from roughly 65 percent to 80 percent and now to an average of about 85 percent in Q3FY26.

Employees are expected to receive their bonus letters over the next few days, with the payout scheduled to be credited along with their February salary.

One employee told the outlet that it is the strongest bonus outcome seen in recent years. The payout is also among the rare instances since the Covid-19 period when variable pay has approached the upper end of the eligible range.

Infosys last paid out 100 percent variable compensation during the pandemic. In the quarters that followed, payouts were lower amid macroeconomic uncertainty and a broader slowdown in client spending across global markets.

The higher payout comes at a time when global IT stocks have faced renewed pressure, driven by concerns over rapid advances in artificial intelligence and their potential impact on traditional IT services models.

Shares of global IT firms have seen sharp sell-offs in recent weeks amid heightened investor focus on AI leaders such as Anthropic. Investors fear that generative AI tools could compress pricing, automate routine services work and reduce demand for legacy outsourcing models.

Against that backdrop, the improved bonus payout at Infosys is being viewed as a signal of operational resilience and near-term performance strength, even as sentiment around the broader IT sector remains cautious.

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Why you should consider switching bank accounts

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Why you should consider switching bank accounts



Martin Lewis explains why now might be a good time to think about changing your bank account.



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