Business
H-1B: What Trump’s $100,000 visa means for India and US industries
Soutik Biswas and Nikhil InamdarBBC News
Getty ImagesPanic, confusion and then a hasty White House climbdown – it was a weekend of whiplash for hundreds of thousands of Indians on H-1B visas.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump stunned the tech world by announcing an up to 50-fold hike in the cost of skilled worker permits – to $100,000. Chaos followed: Silicon Valley firms urged staff not to travel outside the country, overseas workers scrambled for flights, and immigration lawyers worked overtime to decode the order.
By Saturday, the White House sought to calm the storm, clarifying that the fee applied only to new applicants and was a one-off. Yet, the long-standing H-1B programme – criticised for undercutting American workers but praised for attracting global talent – still faces an uncertain future.
Even with the tweak, the policy effectively shutters the H-1B pipeline that, for three decades, powered the American dream for millions of Indians and, more importantly, supplied the lifeblood of talent to US industries.
That pipeline reshaped both countries. For India, the H-1B became a vehicle of aspiration: small-town coders turned dollar earners, families vaulted into the middle class, and entire industries – from airlines to real estate – catered to a new class of globe-trotting Indians.
For the US, it meant an infusion of talent that filled labs, classrooms, hospitals and start-ups. Today, Indian-origin executives run Google, Microsoft and IBM, and Indian doctors make up nearly 6% of the US physician workforce.
Indians dominate the H-1B programme, making up more than 70% of the recipients in recent years. (China was the second-largest source, making up about 12% of beneficiaries.)
In tech, their presence is even starker: a Freedom of Information Act request in 2015 showed over 80% of “computer” jobs went to Indian nationals – a share industry insiders say hasn’t shifted much.
The medical sector underlines the stakes. In 2023, more than 8,200 H-1Bs were approved to work in general medicine and surgical hospitals.
India is the largest single source of international medical graduates (who are typically in US on H-1B visas) and make up about 22% of all international doctors. With international doctors forming up to a quarter of US physicians, Indian H-1B holders likely account for around 5-6% of the total.
Experts say pay data shows why Trump’s new $100,000 fee is unworkable. In 2023, the median salary for new H-1B employees was $94,000, compared with $129,000 for those already in the system. Since the fee targets new hires, most won’t even earn enough to cover it, say experts.
“Since the latest White House directive indicates that the fee would only apply to new H-1B recipients, this is more likely to cause medium and long-term labour shortages instead of immediate disruption,” Gil Guerra, an immigration policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, told the BBC.
India may feel the shock first, but the ripple effects could run deeper in the US. Indian outsourcing giants such as TCS and Infosys have long prepared for this by building local workforces and shifting delivery offshore.
The numbers tell the story: Indians still account for 70% of H-1B recipients, but only three of the top 10 H-1B employers had ties to India in 2023, down from six in 2016, according to Pew Research.
To be sure, India’s $283bn IT sector faces a reckoning with its reliance on shuttling skilled workers to the US, which accounts for over half its revenue.
IT industry body Nasscom believes the visa fee hike could “disrupt business continuity for certain onshore projects”. Clients are likely to push for repricing or delay projects until legal uncertainties are cleared, while companies may rethink staffing models – shifting work offshore, reducing onshore roles and becoming far more selective in sponsorship decisions.
Indian firms are also likely to pass on the increased visa costs to US clients, says Aditya Narayan Mishra of CIEL HR, a leading staffing firm.
“With employers reluctant to commit to the heavy cost of sponsorship, we could see greater reliance on remote contracting, offshore delivery and gig workers.”
The broader impact on the US could be severe: hospitals facing doctor shortages, universities struggling to attract STEM students, and start-ups without the lobbying muscle of Google or Amazon are likely to be hit hardest.
“It [visa fee hike] will force US companies to radically change their hiring policies and offshore a significant amount of their work. It will also ban founders and CEOs coming to manage US-based businesses. It will deal a devastating blow to US innovation and competitiveness,” David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, told BBC.
San Francisco Chronicle via Getty ImagesThat anxiety is echoed by other experts. “The demand for new workers in fields like tech and medicine [in US] is projected to increase (albeit in uneven ways), and given how specialised and critical these fields are, a shortage that lasts even a few years could have a serious impact on the US economy and national well-being,” says Mr Guerra.
“It will likely also incentivise more skilled Indian workers to look at other countries for international study and have a cascading effect on the American university system as well.”
The impact, in fact, will be felt most sharply by Indian students, who make up one in four international students in the US.
Sudhanshu Kaushik, founder of the North American Association of Indian Students, which represents 25,000 members across 120 universities, says the timing – just after September enrolments – has left many new arrivals stunned.
“It felt like a direct attack, because the fees are already paid, so there’s a big sunk cost of anywhere between $50,000 and $100,000 per student – and the most lucrative route to entering the American workforce has now been obliterated,” Mr Kaushik told the BBC.
He predicts the ruling will hit US university intake next year, as most Indian students opt for countries where they can “put down permanent roots”.
For now, the full impact of the tax hike remains uncertain.
Immigration lawyers expect Trump’s move to face legal challenges soon. Mr Guerra warns that the fallout could be uneven: “I expect the new H-1B policy will bring a number of negative consequences for the US, though it will take some time to see what those may be.”
“For example, given that the executive order allows for certain companies to be excepted, it could be possible that some heavy H-1B users such as Amazon, Apple, Google, and Meta will find a way to be exempted from the H-1B fee policy. If they all get exemptions, however, this would largely defeat the purpose of the fee.”
As the dust settles, the H-1B shake-up looks less like a tax on foreign workers and more like a stress test for US companies – and the economy. H-1B visa holders and their families contribute roughly $86bn annually to the US economy, including $24bn in federal payroll taxes and $11bn in state and local taxes.
How companies respond will determine whether the US continues to lead in innovation and talent – or cedes ground to more welcoming economies.
The FTSE 100 was in festive mood on Tuesday, closing higher after a report showed improved UK business confidence and the US economy grew more than forecast in the third quarter.
The FTSE 100 index closed up 23.25 points, 0.2%, at 9,889.22. The FTSE 250 ended up just 6.83 points at 22,349.55, while the AIM All-Share closed down 1.67 points, 0.2%, at 758.81.
UK business confidence increased to 47% in December, rising five points from last month and standing 10 points higher than the start of 2025, according to the latest Lloyds Business Barometer.
In addition, optimism towards the wider economy reached a four-month high, up 11 points to 42%. The renewed economic optimism offset a slight dip in firms’ expectations for their own trading prospects, which decreased by one point to 52%.
“It is great to see business confidence ending the year on a higher note,” said Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Commercial Banking.
Construction saw the sharpest improvement, up 22 points to 61%, its highest level seen this year.
Manufacturing also was up five points to 49%, while retail firms edged higher to 47%, likely reflecting seasonal demand.
In European equities, the CAC 40 in Paris closed down 0.2%, while the DAX 40 ended up 0.2%.
In Copenhagen, Novo Nordisk jumped 9.2% after the US Food and Drug Administration approved its once‑daily Wegovy pill, the first oral glucagon‑like peptide‑1 therapy cleared for weight management.
“As the first oral GLP-1 treatment for people living with overweight or obesity, the Wegovy pill provides patients with a new, convenient treatment option that can help patients start or continue their weight loss journey,” said Novo chief executive Mike Doustdar in a statement late on Monday.
The company expects to launch the Wegovy pill in the US in early January 2026.
Stocks in New York were higher at the time of the London equity market close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were both 0.3% higher.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.18%, widened from 4.17%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was quoted at 4.84%, stretched from 4.83%.
Figures showed US economic growth accelerated in the third quarter of the year, markedly outperforming expectations.
According to Bureau of Economic Analysis data, US gross domestic product expanded 4.3% on an annualised basis quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 30, easily beating the 3.3% growth predicted by consensus cited by FXStreet, and accelerating from a 3.8% expansion in the second quarter.
ING said the figure was “eye-popping”, primarily due to a strong performance from net trade with exports rising 8.8% and imports falling 4.7%, while consumer spending grew a robust 3.5% versus the 2.7% rate expected.
But while it was a “fantastic outcome”, ING noted fourth-quarter GDP is likely to record growth that is considerably slower, thanks in part to the effects of the month-long government shutdown.
“We also can’t see the net trade component continuing to make such a strong contribution while consumer spending is also set to slow,” ING added.
Other US data was mixed, with industrial production beating expectations, but consumer confidence and durable goods orders falling short of hopes.
The pound was quoted at 1.3481 US dollars at the time of the London equities close on Tuesday, up from 1.3452 on Monday.
The euro stood at 1.1777 dollars, higher against 1.1759 dollars. Against the yen, the dollar was trading lower at 156.37 yen compared to 156.95.
Back in London, Metlen Energy & Metals was the best FTSE 100 performer, rising 6.8%.
It said it has completed the sale of a portfolio of solar farms and co-located battery energy storage systems in Chile to a subsidiary of Glenfarne Group at enhanced terms.
Metlen is an Athens-based aluminium producer and electricity generator. Glenfarne is a New York and Houston-based developer, owner, operator, and industrial manager of energy and infrastructure assets.
In April, Metlen had said Glenfarne unit GAC RS Chile II Spa would pay 815 million dollars (£606 million) for the assets.
On Tuesday, Metlen said the final price to be paid is 865 million dollars (£643 million), reflecting the “value creation opportunities emerging in the Chilean market”.
Videndum plunged 56% as the provider of broadcasting hardware and software said a planned refinancing will, if successful, see current shareholdings “very significantly diluted”, while completion is also not guaranteed.
The firm said the main components of a refinancing proposal have now been agreed in principle with the revolving credit facility lenders and its two largest shareholders.
But the firm warned any share issue would be “very significantly below” their current nominal value of 20p per share.
Gut Gulf Marine Services fared better, climbing 11% after reporting a new contract award that covers two of its large-class vessels in Europe.
Neither the name of the client nor the financial terms of the contract were disclosed, but Gulf Marine Services said the award increases its contracted backlog to 540 million dollars.
Brent oil was quoted at 62.09 dollars a barrel at the time of the London equities close on Tuesday, up from 61.87 dollars late on Monday.
Gold traded at 4,462.05 dollars an ounce, up from 4,440.54 on Monday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Metlen Energy & Metals, up 2.80 euro cents at 44.00 euro, Anglo American, up 88.00 pence at 2,993.00p, Antofagasta, up 67.00p at 3,235.00p, BT, up 2.80p at 185.05p and Airtel Africa, up 4.80p at 337.80p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Diageo, down 29.00p at 1,588.00p, Ashtead Group, down 78.00p at 5,192.00p, Convatec, down 3.20p at 238.60p, Burberry, down 16.00p at 1,261.50p and easyJet, down 6.29p at 506.80p.
Wednesday’s economic calendar includes US weekly jobless claims data.
There are no significant events scheduled in Wednesday’s UK corporate calendar.
– Contributed by Alliance News
Business
Tariff jitters: US consumer confidence slips in December; inflation and jobs worries deepen – The Times of India
US consumer confidence weakened in December, sliding to its lowest level since President Donald Trump rolled out sweeping tariffs earlier this year, as households grew more anxious about high prices, trade levies and job prospects, according to a survey by the Conference Board.The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell 3.8 points to 89.1 in December from an upwardly revised 92.9 in November, AP reported. The reading is close to the 85.7 level recorded in April, when the Trump administration introduced import taxes on key US trading partners, AP reported.Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions saw a sharper drop. The present situation index fell 9.5 points to 116.8, reflecting growing unease about inflation and employment conditions. Write-in responses to the survey showed that prices and inflation remained the biggest concern for consumers, alongside tariffs.Short-term expectations for income, business conditions and the labour market were little changed at 70.7, but remained well below 80 — a threshold that can signal a recession ahead. This was the 11th straight month that expectations stayed under that level.Perceptions of the job market also weakened. The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” fell to 26.7% in December from 28.2% in November, while those who said jobs were “hard to get” rose to 20.8% from 20.1%.The softer sentiment follows recent labour market data showing mixed signals. Government figures released last week showed the US economy added 64,000 jobs in November after losing 105,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% last month, its highest level since 2021.Economists say the labour market is stuck in a “low hire, low fire” phase, as companies remain cautious amid uncertainty over tariffs and the lingering effects of high interest rates. Since March, average monthly job creation has slowed to about 35,000, down from 71,000 in the year ended March. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said he suspects those figures could be revised even lower, AP reported.
Kate WhannelPolitical reporter
PA MediaGovernment proposals to tax inherited farmland have been watered down, with the planned threshold increasing from £1m to £2.5m.
The climbdown follows months of protests by farmers and concern from some Labour backbenchers.
At last year’s Budget, ministers said they would start imposing a 20% tax on inherited agricultural assets worth more than £1m from April 2026, ending the 100% tax relief that had been in place since the 1980s.
In an announcement put out after MPs had left Parliament for the Christmas recess, Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds said: “We have listened closely to farmers across the country and we are making changes today to protect more ordinary family farms.”
“It’s only right that larger estates contribute more, while we back the farms and trading businesses that are the backbone of Britain’s rural communities, ” she said.
Head of the National Farmers’ Union Tom Bradshaw welcomed the change, telling BBC Radio 5 Live it “takes out many family farms from the eye of a pernicious storm”.
Gavin Lane, president of the Country Land and Business Association, said: “The government deserves credit for recognising the flaws in the original policy and changing course.
“However, this announcement only limits the damage – it doesn’t eradicate it entirely.
“Many family businesses will own enough expensive machinery and land to be valued above the threshold, yet still operate on such narrow profit margins that this tax burden remains unaffordable.”
Ben Ardern, a farmer from Derbyshire, told the BBC said it was “a step in the right direction”.
He said the government should “drop it [the tax] for family farms… and just tax the people who have got the money to tax.
“The big corporations who have just buried money into land – they’re not farmers, they have just done it to avoid tax. Farmers haven’t bought land to avoid tax, we’ve bought land to farm it and grow food.”
In the 14 months since the initial proposal was announced, there have been regular protests by farmers outside Parliament.
Some Labour MPs in rural areas have also expressed concern. At a recent parliamentary vote on the plan, a dozen backbenchers abstained and one, Markus Campbell-Savours, voted against.
Campbell-Savours was subsequently suspended for voting against the government, meaning he now sits as an independent MP.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said in a post on social media: “This fight isn’t finished.
“Other family businesses are still affected by Labour’s tax raid, and we will keep pushing until the tax is lifted from them too.”
Liberal Democrat spokesperson Tim Farron MP said: “It is utterly inexcusable that family farmers have been put through over a year of uncertainty and anguish since the government first announced these changes.
“We demand that the government scraps this unfair tax in full and if they refuse to, Liberal Democrats will submit amendments in the new year to bring it down.”
Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice said: “This cynical climbdown – whilst better than nothing – does little to address the year of anxiety that farmers have faced in planning to protect their livelihoods… with British agriculture hanging by a thread, the government must go further and abolish this callous farms tax.”
In her first Budget in 2024, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced she would be reversing the 100% inheritance tax relief on agricultural assets that had been in place since the 1980s.
The move would have seen inherited agricultural assets worth over £1m taxed at 20%, half the standard inheritance tax rate, raising an estimated £520m annually by 2029.
The government had argued that the change would protect smaller farms while stopping wealthy investors from buying farmland as a tax loophole.
However, it has now stepped back from the original proposal raising the threshold level to £2.5m.
Coupled with an exemption which allows farmers to pass on assets to their spouses tax-free, this new government concession means a couple could pass on up to £5m in qualifying assets, without paying tax.
Above the threshold, a 50% relief will be applied to the remaining assets.
According to the government, the number of estates in the UK expected to pay more inheritance tax in 2026/27 will be reduced from around 2,000 under the original plans to 1,100 under the new proposal.
The climbdown is the latest in a series of U-turns the government has made since being elected in July 2024.
Earlier this year the government eased cuts to winter fuel payments and backtracked on plans to make £5bn of cuts to the welfare bill.
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