Business
Harvard Professor Shows India Outpacing US, China In Real GDP Growth In Post-Covid Era
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Harvard Professor Jason Furman shared a graph showing India with the highest real GDP growth in the post-Covid era, beating powerhouses like the US and China.
India’s real GDP growth in 2025 was higher than that of the US and China, according to Harvard Professor Jason Furman.
Harvard Professor Jason Furman has positioned India as the only country in the world with the highest real GDP growth since the Covid-19 pandemic, outpacing economic powerhouses like the United States and China.
The Covid-19 pandemic greatly impacted the global economy as it almost brought trade and travel to a standstill. Furman shared a graph, plotting real GDP as a percentage of pre-pandemic trends from 2019 to 2025 Q3, which shows that while most countries struggled from the 2020 downturn, India is the only country with positive growth, climbing towards +5% by mid-2025.
The chart tracks five major players: the United States (blue), the Euro Area (orange), China (grey), Russia (yellow), and India (green). All nations plunged into negative territory in 2020, India being hit the hardest with its GDP plunging to over -25%.
However, India bounced back fast and grew at a faster rate than others, and it reached at least 8% positive growth by mid-2025, far above the trend line (0%).
On the other hand, China was the biggest underperformer, with its economic performance lagging far behind during the Covid-era, but it managed to recover to the trend line. However, its economy started falling from late 2022, and its GDP declined to the lowest by 2025.
The United States was also hit by the pandemic, but it recovered swiftly by 2025, buoyed by aggressive fiscal stimulus like the American Rescue Plan. However, its performance remained far below India’s economic growth. Moreover, Russia’s economy was battered by US sanctions and the Ukraine conflict.
The graph shows that India remains the standout performer in the post-Covid era as the fastest-growing economy, due to a boost in domestic consumption and investment. Robust digital infrastructure, a young demographic dividend, and reforms like production-linked incentives have fuelled 7-8% annual growth, per IMF estimates.
Exports in electronics and pharmaceuticals hit record highs, while services like IT outsourcing weathered global slowdowns. Policies and fiscal prudence of the Indian government contained the fiscal deficits below 6% of GDP, allowed room for targeted spending on infrastructure and social safety nets.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has underscored the resilience of the Indian economy, revising its growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) upwards to 6.6%, according to its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. his positive revision marks a 20-basis-point increase from the 6.4% forecast in July, positioning India as a key global growth engine even as worldwide economic prospects dim.
The upgrade for India comes despite a challenging global environment, which the IMF projects will see overall global growth moderate from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The Fund attributes India’s robust outlook primarily to a strong economic performance in the first quarter of FY26, which saw the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grow at a five-quarter high of 7.8%.
Aveek Banerjee is a Senior Sub Editor at News18. Based in Noida with a Master’s in Global Studies, Aveek has more than three years of experience in digital media and news curation, specialising in international…Read More
Aveek Banerjee is a Senior Sub Editor at News18. Based in Noida with a Master’s in Global Studies, Aveek has more than three years of experience in digital media and news curation, specialising in international… Read More
November 22, 2025, 20:26 IST
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The forecasts were made before the conflict in the Middle East broke out which could have a “very significant” impact, the OBR said.
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US stock market: Wall street crashes amid Iran tension; Dow jones slips over 900 points, Nasdaq dips by 2% – The Times of India
A fresh wave of global selling pressure hit Wall Street on Tuesday, as escalating tensions involving Iran deepened fears of prolonged economic disruption. The S&P 500 fell 1.8 per cent in early trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 907 points, or 1.9 per cent, as of 9:35 am Eastern time, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1 per cent. The renewed slide came just a day after US equities had erased steep early losses to close marginally higher — a rebound that had hinged on oil prices remaining contained. That relief faded as crude surged closer to levels that investors fear could reignite inflationary pressures. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped 8.2 per cent to $84.14 a barrel after trading near $70 less than a week ago. US benchmark crude rose 8 per cent to $76.92. Oil prices spiked after Iran struck the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia, broadening its list of targets to include areas central to global oil and natural gas production. Markets are particularly focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint off Iran’s coast through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption there could have outsized consequences for global energy markets. Uncertainty over the duration of the conflict is adding to volatility. US and Israeli strikes have already killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, yet US President Donald Trump has indicated that hostilities could persist for weeks. In a late-night social media post on Monday, Trump said wars can be fought “forever” with the munitions available to the United States. The sharp rise in crude threatens to compound inflation, which remains elevated, by increasing fuel and transportation costs. According to data from motor club AAA, the average US gasoline price rose 11 cents overnight to about $3.11 per gallon.On Wall Street, airline stocks extended losses amid concerns over higher jet fuel costs and travel disruptions linked to the conflict. United Airlines fell 4.1 per cent, American Airlines declined 4 per cent and Delta Air Lines slipped 3 per cent. Bond markets also reflected rising inflation expectations. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury climbed to 4.10 per cent from 4.05 per cent late Monday and 3.97 per cent on Friday. Higher yields translate into more expensive borrowing costs for households and businesses, affecting everything from mortgages to corporate bond issuances.The impact in equity markets has been most pronounced in sectors and countries heavily reliant on energy imports. In South Korea — a major oil importer — the Kospi index plunged 7.2 per cent in its worst session in nearly two years as markets reopened after a holiday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 3.1 per cent, despite analysts noting that Japan maintains strategic energy reserves estimated to last more than 200 days.
Sign at the main entrance to a Best Buy store in Venice, Florida.
Erik McGregor | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Best Buy posted mixed results on Tuesday as the retailer’s holiday-quarter sales declined and missed Wall Street’s expectations, but its earnings topped estimates as it showed improved profitability.
For the current fiscal year, the consumer electronics retailer expects revenue to range between $41.2 billion and $42.1 billion, compared with $41.69 billion in the most recent fiscal year. It expects adjusted earnings per share to range from $6.30 to $6.60, after it reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.43 for the previous fiscal year.
Best Buy anticipates that comparable sales, a metric that tracks sales online and in stores open at least 14 months, will range from a decline of 1% to an increase of 1%.
In a news release, CEO Corie Barry said demand for consumer electronics remained lackluster during the gift-giving season, but the company’s internal data indicates that Best Buy’s market share in the industry “was at least flat.”
Chief Financial Officer Matt Bilunas said in his own statement that the company is “excited about the momentum in our business.” But he added that company leaders “expect to continue to navigate a mixed macro environment.”
Shares jumped more than 10% in premarket trading.
Here’s how the retailer did for the fiscal fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $2.61 adjusted vs. $2.47 expected
- Revenue: $13.81 billion vs. $13.88 billion expected
In the three-month period that ended Jan. 31, Best Buy’s net income jumped to $541 million, or $2.56 per share, from $117 million, or 54 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. Excluding one-time expenses, including charges for its health business, Best Buy reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.61.
Revenue decreased from $13.95 billion in the year-ago quarter. Yet on an annual basis, revenue rose to $41.69 billion from $41.53 billion in the prior fiscal year. Best Buy’s annual revenue declined in the three previous fiscal years.
For about four years, Best Buy has pinned its slower sales on more price-sensitive U.S. consumers, a slower housing market and less tech innovation. All of those factors have caused some shoppers to delay tech purchases, particularly big-ticket items like new refrigerators. Higher tariffs have also added costs for Best Buy, since many consumer electronics are imported.
Comparable sales dropped 0.8% in the fourth quarter as the company saw softer sales of appliances and home theaters. Those declines were partially offset by sales growth in computing and mobile phones, the company said.
Best Buy has leaned into more profitable businesses, including selling ads and offering more merchandise through its third-party marketplace, which launched in August. Barry said in the company’s news release that Best Buy’s advertising partners nearly doubled compared to the prior year and she said the retailer has significantly increased the number of available products on the marketplace.
The company has a scheduled earnings call at 9 a.m. ET.
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