ICE cotton edges up on higher crude oil, dry weather concerns

ICE cotton futures edged slightly higher in the previous session, supported by rising crude oil prices and concerns over dry weather in key United States (US) growing regions. However, gains remained limited due to external factors. Iran signalled its willingness to engage in talks with Europe and other parties on nuclear issues, which eased global supply concerns and capped further upside in the market.

The most traded contract July 2026 settled at 79.67 cents per pound, up 0.09 cent, reflecting a narrow trading range.

ICE cotton futures edged higher, supported by firm crude oil prices and dry weather in the US, though gains were capped by easing geopolitical tensions.
Planting progress remained steady, while a weaker dollar and firm commodities supported demand.
Prices stayed range-bound amid expected rains and mild profit-taking, with mixed early trade today.

According to market analysts, dry conditions in Texas continue to support prices; however, expected rainfall next week in the central and eastern regions may cap bullish momentum. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop progress report showed cotton planting at 16 per cent, up from 11 per cent last week and above the five-year average of 13 per cent, indicating steady sowing progress.

Crude oil prices surged sharply due to supply disruption concerns following a refinery shutdown linked to geopolitical tensions, tightening the global fuel supply outlook. However, further gains were limited after Iran signalled its willingness to participate in talks.

Higher crude oil prices have increased polyester and synthetic fibre production costs, indirectly supporting cotton demand as a substitute fibre.

The US Dollar Index weakened, making US cotton more competitive and cheaper for overseas buyers, thereby providing export support.

After several sessions of gains, the cotton market witnessed mild profit-taking and consolidation, indicating that traders are adjusting positions near recent highs. Broader commodity markets remained firm, with strong upside seen in CBOT corn and wheat futures, which provided additional support to cotton prices.

ICE exchange data showed certified cotton stocks at 165,681 bales as of April 27, reflecting available deliverable supply.

StoneX revised Brazil’s 2025–26 cotton production outlook, lowering the total output estimate to 3.86 million tonnes, indicating a slight tightening in global supply expectations. Despite the revision, favourable weather conditions in key producing states such as Bahia and Mato Grosso continue to support overall crop development in Brazil.

Market sentiment is also supported by tight near-term supply expectations and strong external commodity cues, though balanced by improving US planting progress.

Overall, the tone remains firm but range-bound, supported by weather concerns, crude oil strength, and a weaker dollar, while expected rains and profit-taking are limiting sharp upside movement.

This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE cotton for July 2026 was traded at 79.48 cents per pound (down 0.19 cent), cash cotton at 76.67 cents (up 0.09 cent), the May 2026 contract at 77.34 cents (up 0.01 cent), the October 2026 contract at 81.31 cents (up 0.14 cent), the December 2026 at 80.93 cents (down 0.18 cent) and the March 2027 contract at 81.85 cents (down 0.16 cent)). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)