ICE cotton rallies to 22 month-high on weaker dollar, drought worries

The May 2026 contract settled at 75.11 cents per pound, up 0.77 cent or 1 per cent. The most traded contract of July 2026 rallied 0.90 cent or 1.20 per cent to settle at 77.42 cents per pound. It had touched an intraday high of 77.75 cents, marking its highest level since July 2024. Other contracts also rose to reach a high level.

ICE cotton surged to a 22-month high, led by a weaker US dollar, firm crude oil and drought concerns in key US regions.
The July 2026 contract hit its highest since July 2024.
Strong trading volumes and rising synthetic fibre costs supported demand, while weather risks and macro factors kept market sentiment firmly bullish.
Deliverable stocks remained unchanged, signalling tight supply conditions.

Total trading volume was recorded at 98,489 contracts, reflecting strong participation and sustained buying interest.

Crude oil prices remained firm as supply disruption concerns persisted due to ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Markets reacted to mixed signals after statements indicating a possible end to the US-Iran conflict, but uncertainty kept oil prices supported. The conflict has effectively disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20 per cent of global oil and gas shipments along with key commodities like fertilisers. Elevated crude oil prices are increasing polyester fibre production costs, thereby supporting cotton demand as a substitute fibre.

The US dollar index edged lower and traded in a narrow range as investors assessed the likelihood of renewed US-Iran negotiations. A weaker dollar made US cotton more competitive in global markets, providing additional support to export demand.

According to market analysts, high crude oil prices and rising synthetic fibre costs are key drivers supporting the cotton market, along with the impact of a weaker dollar.

The ongoing drought conditions in the United States also continued to pose risks to crop development unless weather conditions improve. Weather conditions in major US cotton-producing regions remain dry, reinforcing concerns over crop health, yield potential, and overall supply outlook.

ICE data showed that deliverable No. 2 cotton futures stocks remained unchanged at 159,512 bales as of April 14.

Broader financial markets showed strength, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs driven by strong corporate earnings and optimism around geopolitical developments. CBOT wheat futures rose for the third consecutive session and have gained nearly 4 per cent so far this week due to drought conditions in the US Plains impacting crop prospects.

Cotton futures remain in a strong bullish phase with prices at multi-month highs, supported by macroeconomic factors such as a weaker dollar and firm crude oil, along with fundamental support from adverse US weather conditions. Market sentiment continues to favour further upside in the near term.

This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE cotton for May 2026 was trading at 75.98 cents per pound (up 0.87 cent), cash cotton at 73.11 cents (up 0.77 cent), the July 2026 contract at 78.32 cents (up 0.90 cent), the October 2026 contract at 78.94 cents (up 1.37 cent), the December 2026 contract at 79.10 cents (up 0.75 cent) and the March 2027 contract at 79.85 cents (up 0.66 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)