ICE cotton remains stable; bearish tone persists after WASDE report

ICE cotton futures were largely stable, with a bearish tone. The USDA’s world supply and demand report indicated lower consumption and exports, while production is expected to rise. Although the report was in line with market expectations, it dampened sentiment. A weaker US dollar capped losses in US cotton.

The most actively traded March cotton contract eased by 0.02 cent to settle at 61.59 cents per pound after trading as high as 62.28 cents earlier in the day. The more actively traded May cotton futures contract gained 0.55 cent, or 0.90 per cent, to settle at 63.78 cents per pound.

ICE cotton futures were largely steady after the USDA’s February WASDE report signalled higher global production and stocks alongside lower consumption and exports for 2025–26.
The data, largely in line with expectations, weighed on sentiment, though a weaker US dollar limited losses.
March closed marginally lower, while May gained 0.90 per cent.

Most contracts traded higher by between 2 and 32 points. Contracts from May 2026 through October 2027 recorded their second consecutive higher close, indicating mild strength in deferred months.

Weak US economic data pushed the dollar lower against major currencies, making dollar-denominated cotton relatively cheaper for overseas buyers.

Trading volume was extremely heavy at 131,395 contracts, just below Monday’s 2026 high of 139,728 contracts. Historically, cotton has traded above 100,000 contracts only 25 times, with 15 of the top 18 volume days occurring in the past 12 months, showing that large volumes can occur without major price swings.

USDA February estimates place 2025–26 global cotton production at 119.86 million bales (January: 119.43 million) and ending stocks at 75.11 million bales (January: 74.48 million). The USDA cut its 2025–26 global cotton consumption forecast by 200,000 bales and its export forecast by 60,000 bales.

Market analysts said the data were within expectations and that prices have retreated from recent highs. The market appears oversold and could rebound towards 64 cents.

Meanwhile, Intercontinental Exchange data showed ICE-certified No. 2 cotton stocks at 95,158 bales as of February 9, compared with 93,561 bales a day earlier.

This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE cotton for March 2026 traded at 61.87 cents per pound (up 0.28 cent), cash cotton at 59.59 cents (down 0.02 cent), the May 2026 contract at 64.04 cents (up 0.26 cent), the July 2026 contract at 65.76 cents (up 0.28 cent), the October 2026 contract at 67.41 cents (up 0.23 cent), and the December 2026 contract at 67.21 cents (up 0.12 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)