ICE cotton sees mixed trend as rain forecasts weaken sentiment

ICE cotton futures witnessed weak sentiments yesterday mainly because of improving rainfall forecasts across major US cotton growing regions. Although, US cotton prices noticed mixed trend where nearby contracts posted losses, but distant contracts were traded higher in the market.

The most traded contract July 2026 settled at 81.60 cents down 0.73 cent or 0.89 per cent. The contract recorded fifth decline in the last 7 sessions, with cumulative losses of 617 points during the period. December 2026 contract posted 0.20 cent drop to settle at 82.96 cent per pound. December contract posted losses of 444 points in last five sessions out of 7 sessions. Other contracts finished mixed ranging from 31 points lower to 29 points higher.

ICE cotton futures remained under pressure as improving rainfall forecasts across major US cotton-growing regions eased crop concerns and weighed on market sentiment.
The July 2026 contract fell 0.89 per cent to 81.60 cents, marking its fifth decline in seven sessions.
Lower crude oil prices, subdued trading activity, and weak speculative participation also added bearish pressure on cotton prices.

Total daily trading volume was 52,977 contracts, marking the lowest volume in the last two and half weeks. Previous session cleared volume stood at 60,785 contracts.

Market sentiment remained weak mainly due to improving rainfall forecasts across major US cotton-growing regions. Drought-monitoring data showed cotton areas experienced historically severe dryness, during the last three months, but forecasts now suggest increased rainfall over the next 2–3 weeks. Weather forecasts specifically indicated better moisture chances across West Texas, the Southern Plains, and southeastern US cotton regions.

Market analysts said that expected rainfall in West Texas and southeastern areas continued to pressure cotton prices. Falling crude oil prices added additional downside pressure on cotton futures.

International crude oil prices dropped to their lowest level in nearly six weeks. Lower crude oil prices reduce polyester production costs, making synthetic fibres cheaper and weakening cotton demand competitiveness.

Traders also monitored geopolitical developments including Russia-Ukraine ceasefire discussions and ongoing Middle East tensions.

ICE certified cotton stocks as of May 19 were reported at 203,403 bales. Previous day ICE certified stocks were 203,491 bales, showing a slight daily decline.

Overall market tone remained cautious to mildly bearish due to improving weather outlook, weak crude oil markets, low speculative participation, and subdued trading activity.

This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE cotton for July 2026 was traded at 80.91 cents per pound (down 0.69 cent), cash cotton at 78.60 cents (down 0.73 cent), the October 2026 contract at 82.58 cents (down 0.31 cent), the December 2026 at 82.15 cents (down 0.81 cent), the March 2027 contract at 83.01 cents (down 0.76 cent) and the May 2027 contract at 83.51 cents (down 0.71 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)