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IMF chief says global inflation will fall to 3.8% | The Express Tribune
The government has agreed to the need for a mini-budget if revenues fall short of expectations by end-December 2025, according to the IMF. Photo: file
DUBAI:
Global inflation is expected to fall to 3.8% this year and to 3.4% in 2027, helped by softer demand and lower energy prices, the IMF chief said on Monday.
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a speech at the Annual Arab Fiscal Forum in Dubai that global growth has held up “remarkably well” amid profound shifts in geopolitics, trade policy, technology and demographics.
Georgieva also called for more trade integration as unilateral trade agreements are seen on the increase. “In the world of trade fragmentation, more trade integration is absolutely paramount.”
“What we have seen this year is that trade did not go down the way we feared it would. In fact trade is growing slightly slower than global growth,” she added.
Georgieva said Arab economies were expected to grow by 3.7%, driven by increased oil production and the continued recovery of non-oil sectors, reflecting improved regional economic performance despite global challenges.
In her opening address at the Arab Fiscal Forum, she noted that the global economy was projected to grow by around 3.2% this year, exceeding previous expectations, supported by stronger global demand and easing financial pressures in several major economies.
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India-US trade deal: Hope and uncertainty as Trump cuts tariffs
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MCX Silver Jumps 6% To Hit Upper Circuit After 46% Crash; Can India–US Deal Spark A Sustained Rally?
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Silver prices staged a sharp rebound on Tuesday after an intense phase of liquidation that followed the abrupt unwinding of a record-setting rally
Silver Rates Surge Today
Silver Rates Today: Silver prices staged a sharp rebound on Tuesday after an intense phase of liquidation that followed the abrupt unwinding of a record-setting rally. The earlier sell-off had pulled prices down more than 46% from their peak in just three sessions, highlighting the extreme volatility in the precious metals space. Gold prices also recovered alongside silver.
On the MCX, silver hit the 6% upper circuit at Rs 2,50,436 per kg on February 3, while MCX gold climbed 3% to Rs 1,48,310 per 10 grams.
A key macro catalyst emerged after US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with India. The deal lowers US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases and easing certain trade barriers. The development added a fresh geopolitical layer to already jittery commodity markets.
Gold mirrored silver’s recovery in global trade. Spot gold rose as much as 4.2% to move above $4,855 an ounce after sliding 4.8% in the previous session. That decline had extended Friday’s slump, the steepest in over a decade.
Earlier, on January 30, spot gold had tumbled nearly 10% in its sharpest single-day fall since 1983, dragging prices back below the $5,000-an-ounce mark that had been crossed only days before and erasing a sizable portion of the year’s gains.
The rebound extended beyond gold and silver. Spot platinum advanced 3% to $2,183.64 an ounce after touching a record $2,918.80 on January 26, while palladium rose 2.7% to $1,765.75, joining the broader recovery across precious metals.
What drove the rebound after the crash?
Domestic sentiment got a lift from the India–US trade deal, while investors also reassessed geopolitical risks, currency movements and the outlook for US monetary leadership. Strong buying from Chinese retail investors ahead of the Lunar New Year further supported demand, although China’s markets are set to shut for over a week from February 16, temporarily sidelining a key source of consumption.
Traders are also watching developments involving Iran after Trump signalled that talks on a potential new nuclear agreement could begin soon. Any diplomatic progress could reduce gold’s safe-haven appeal and cap gains.
The earlier sell-off in bullion was initially triggered by Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, which strengthened the US dollar and pressured metals. The slide intensified after CME Group raised margin requirements for precious metals futures, forcing leveraged traders to unwind positions quickly. A stronger dollar combined with higher trading costs led to a sharp liquidity squeeze, accelerating the fall.
Will the rally sustain?
Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments, said longer-term drivers such as geopolitical tensions, central bank buying and macro uncertainty remain supportive for precious metals.
He noted that the previous correction was magnified by extremely overbought conditions after gold and silver had surged to record highs, with silver rallying more than 60% in a month and gold over 20%. Profit-booking snowballed into panic selling as liquidity thinned and volatility spiked.
“The violent drop was more of a technical correction than a deterioration in core fundamentals,” he said, suggesting that the broader structural support for the metals remains intact.
February 03, 2026, 11:07 IST
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Why Are Gold Prices Swinging? Nirmala Sitharaman Breaks It Down
Gold prices are no longer being watched only at home but across global markets, as sudden and unexpected swings keep investors on edge. Addressing the volatility, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated that a deepening uncertainty in international markets is driving the fluctuations. Speaking to reporters on Monday, she pointed to rising anxiety among investors in global commodity trade, explaining that unstable conditions worldwide have eroded confidence in individual currencies. As a result, many investors are turning to gold as a haven, a shift she said is naturally fuelling the sharp ups and downs in gold prices.

According to data from the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices slipped slightly on Monday evening. Compared to the previous session’s closing rate, the price of ten grams of gold declined by around Rs 280, marking a fall of less than 1%. Market experts note that daily price movements are largely driven by international trends. Due to this volatility, many buyers are adopting a wait-and-watch approach.

Over the past five days, gold prices in India’s spot market have fallen sharply. On January 29, the price of ten grams of gold stood above Rs 1.7 lakh, but it has now dropped to nearly Rs 1.4 lakh. This represents a decline of over 13% in just five days, a shift that has caught regular buyers by surprise. For investors hoping for substantial gains, the sudden drop has served as a cautionary signal.

Responding to questions on the Union Budget, the Finance Minister said that investment remains the primary driver of sustained economic growth. She noted that the government is prioritising sectors that generate employment and is strengthening the economy through reforms aimed at long-term outcomes. While increasing public investment, she said, the government continues to follow disciplined fiscal policies. The overarching goal, she added, is to ensure that growth is inclusive and that every citizen becomes a stakeholder in the nation’s development.

Nirmala Sitharaman expressed confidence that India is steadily progressing towards becoming a developed nation. She stated that as a growing economy, India must play a significant role in global trade and is actively working to boost exports by integrating with international markets. She also clarified that efforts are underway to make domestic markets resilient enough to compete globally.

She further explained the decision to raise the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) in the Futures and Options segment. According to her, the move is aimed at discouraging uninformed, gambling-like participation in derivative trading. The government, she said, has taken these steps to protect small and retail investors from potential losses and to maintain overall market stability.

The Finance Minister also revealed that the disinvestment process of public sector enterprises is progressing swiftly. She said this would encourage greater public participation in government-owned companies and allow more efficient use of financial resources to fund development projects. Through transparent policies, the central government aims to maximise the value of public assets, a move she believes will yield long-term financial benefits for the country.

She concluded by stating that global economic conditions are clearly influencing domestic markets, and while price fluctuations are inevitable, the government’s reforms will help bring stability. She advised investors to avoid hasty decisions and to carefully assess market conditions before acting, adding that every reform undertaken to strengthen the economy is a step towards a developed India.
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